Sunrise 6:18 AM   Sunset 7:56 PM Moonrise 9:09 PM   Moonset 6:03 AM

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PZZ530 San Pablo Bay, Suisun Bay, The West Delta And The San Francisco Bay North Of The Bay Bridge- 244 Am Pdt Thu Apr 25 2024
Today - NW winds 15 to 25 knots. Tonight - W winds 10 to 20 knots with gusts up to 30 knots. Fri - W winds 10 to 20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Fri night - W winds 10 to 20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Sat - W winds 10 to 15 knots. Sat night - W winds 10 to 15 knots. Sun - W winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Mon - W winds 10 to 15 knots.

PZZ500 244 Am Pdt Thu Apr 25 2024
Synopsis for the central california coast and bays including the Monterey bay - Greater farallones - .and cordell bank national marine sanctuaries - .
moderate northwesterly winds persist through Friday morning with occasional fresh to strong gusts throughout portions of the coastal waters. Winds strengthen to become strong and gusty into Friday afternoon with gale-force gusts likely near the big sur coast. These strong and gusty northwesterly winds last through the weekend and into at least the early portion of next week, bringing hazardous conditions for small craft. Moderate period northwest swell will continue to move through the waters this weekend, with a new longer period northwest swell train entering the waters Sunday. Light, long period southerly swell continues through end of forecast period.

FXUS66 KMTR 250749 AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 1249 AM PDT Thu Apr 25 2024

New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM

SYNOPSIS
Issued at 1201 AM PDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Cool temperatures will continue today. A cold front will bring a chance for light rain beginning tonight, with strong winds Friday night. Increasing sunshine will kick off a warming trend Sat-Tue.

SHORT TERM
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1201 AM PDT Thu Apr 25 2024

A coastal surface trough will continue to weaken and move inland, allowing a low-amplitude ridge to build. This will cause the marine layer to compress to about 1,500 ft. Compared to the 4,000 ft deep marine layer observed Wednesday, the low overcast today will be more limited to the coast and adjacent low valleys. The standard NW flow will also return as the trough weakens. The cool temperatures will continue, with highs generally in the 60s. This ridge pattern will be short lived as a cold front moves through on Friday.

LONG TERM
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 1201 AM PDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Some light rain is possible starting ahead of the cold front Thursday night, with low PoPs lasting though the day Friday.
22/26 members of the SREF have some precipitation falling at SFO between Thursday night and Friday, but only 4 of them are above 0.05" of accumulation, and none of those are above 0.1". Similar results are found throughout the Bay Area, with slightly more bullish results along the Central Coast. As such, I have increased the NBM PoPs to at least 15% to ensure a slight chance of rain is mentioned, but did not increase the QPF from the WPC guidance, which is near zero. There's a decent chance some rain falls late Thursday-Friday, but it will be light.

The bigger impact will be from strong NW winds behind the cold front. 24 hours ago, it looked like a slam dunk wind advisory along the coast, but the models have backed off since then. NBM is on the high side of the guidance, but only shows a slight chance of exceeding 40 mph gusts along the coast on Friday night. The timing of the strongest winds has also shifted from Friday afternoon to overnight Friday. Based on this, and the fact that other deterministic models are even less aggressive, we are not hoisting a wind advisory at this time. That being said, there will be plenty of gusts above 30 mph on Friday and Saturday with some minor impacts expected.

The weekend will feature clearing skies and slightly warmer temperatures, although Saturday will still be breezy. The gradual warm-up will continue through early next week, as the region returns to seasonal temperatures under mostly clear skies. The next threat of rain arrives late next week.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1122 PM PDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Cloudy and overcast conditions prevail once more, though unlike last night which saw largely VFR conditions prevailing despite cloud cover, tonight is likely to see widespread MVFR CIGs as the marine layer continues to compress as a shortwave ridge builds. This will lower CIGs to around 1500' for most terminals. At this time, not expecting CIGs to deteriorate below MVFR, though Monterey Bay terminals may come close briefly in the mid morning Thursday. Most terminals clear late in the morning of Thursday, with winds steadily increasing out of the west to become moderate to strong, and gusting 20-25+ knots well into the evening hours. KSFO is likely to see the strongest gusts nearing 30 knots.

Aside from moderate to strong winds and gusty conditions, models are in good agreement indicating stratus making an aggressive push inland near 00Z-02Z Friday. Strong onshore winds help advect these low clouds inland, bringing widespread MVFR conditions once more.
MVFR lasts beyond the TAF period.

Vicinity of SFO...Satellite shows stratus encircling the majority of the SF Bay at this hour. CIG heights per the KSFO metar are around 1300' at the moment, ushering in MVFR conditions. Expect MVFR CIGs to last into the late morning before brief lifting to VFR for a few hours into the afternoon. Despite improvement to VFR conditions, low to mid level clouds will continue to be present throughout the duration of the TAF period. Winds will begin to strengthen and gust 25+ knots out of the west by the time of clearing, with winds continually strengthening into the early afternoon. Stratus and subsequent MVFR CIGs will return in the early evening, ushered in by strong westerly winds. MVFR then lasts well beyond the end of the TAF period with winds slowly decreasing into the late night to around 10 knots.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...MVFR conditions persist throughout the night, though KMRY is likely to see IFR develop beyond midnight Thursday as CIGs continually lower. As it stands, there is between a 60-75% chance of IFR CIG development at the most favored times for KMRY. Elsewhere, chances only stand at about 50% of achieving IFR conditions, so have left with prevailing MVFR conditions for now.
This will be something to watch closely through the night however as confidence on maintaining MVFR conditions for terminals outside KMRY is marginal. Otherwise, KMRY improves to MVFR as CIGs lift beyond sunrise. Stratus will continue to shroud area terminals through the TAF period with no improvement to VFR expected.
Chances of VFR are only in the 30-40% range, therefore have gone with MVFR prevailing through the entire TAF period. Winds onshore, moderate, and gusting to around 20 knots beginning in the late morning and continuing through the late night.

MARINE
(Tonight through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1122 PM PDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Gentle to moderate NW winds continue into Friday with occasional moderate to fresh gusts possible throughout portions of the coastal waters. Gustier fresh to strong winds with near gale force and isolated gale force gusts possible heading into Friday as an upper level trough and surface low pressure system move inland. Moderate period northwest swell will continue to move through the waters through Saturday. Light long period southerly swell continues through end of forecast period.

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 9 PM PDT this evening for Mry Bay.

Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 3 AM PDT Friday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT this morning for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

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San Francisco
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Thu -- 12:28 AM PDT     5.67 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:20 AM PDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:03 AM PDT     Moonset
Thu -- 07:08 AM PDT     -0.53 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 02:16 PM PDT     4.20 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:44 PM PDT     2.60 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:55 PM PDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:09 PM PDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

San Francisco, California, Tide feet

Golden Gate Bridge .8 mi E .
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Thu -- 02:07 AM PDT     -0.01 knots Slack
Thu -- 05:49 AM PDT     -3.19 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 06:20 AM PDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:03 AM PDT     Moonset
Thu -- 09:20 AM PDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 12:20 PM PDT     3.02 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 03:47 PM PDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 06:19 PM PDT     -1.59 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 07:55 PM PDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:58 PM PDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 10:09 PM PDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Golden Gate Bridge .8 mi E ., San Francisco Bay, California Current, knots

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