Sunrise 6:18 AM   Sunset 7:56 PM Moonrise 9:09 PM   Moonset 6:03 AM

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PZZ530 San Pablo Bay, Suisun Bay, The West Delta And The San Francisco Bay North Of The Bay Bridge- 850 Pm Pdt Wed Apr 24 2024
Tonight - SW winds 10 to 15 knots. Thu - W winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Thu night - W winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 30 knots. Fri - W winds 10 to 20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Fri night - W winds 10 to 20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Sat - W winds 10 to 15 knots. Sat night - W winds 10 to 15 knots. Sun - W winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Mon - W winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 25 knots.

PZZ500 850 Pm Pdt Wed Apr 24 2024
Synopsis for the central california coast and bays including the Monterey bay - Greater farallones - .and cordell bank national marine sanctuaries - .
gentle to moderate nw winds continue into Friday with occasional moderate to fresh gusts possible throughout portions of the coastal waters. Gustier fresh to strong winds with near gale force and isolated gale force gusts possible heading into Friday as an upper level trough and surface low pressure system move inland. Moderate period northwest swell will continue to move through the waters through Saturday. Light long period southerly swell continues through end of forecast period.

FXUS66 KMTR 250622 AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 1122 PM PDT Wed Apr 24 2024

New AVIATION, MARINE

SYNOPSIS
Issued at 228 PM PDT Wed Apr 24 2024

A deep marine layer and expansive cloud coverage will keep temperatures cool through Thursday before stronger winds arrive Friday. Clearer skies and slightly warmer temperatures are expected this weekend.

UPDATE
Issued at 853 PM PDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Areas of the North Bay coast, East Bay Hills and Santa Cruz Mountains saw light rain/drizzle today with amounts totaling up to 0.04". Due to abundant cloud cover, temperatures struggled to warm out of the low-to-mid 60s. Similar conditions will be possible overnight, but rainfall amounts won't amount to much and are likely to range from trace amounts to a few hundredths of an inch.
Overnight temperatures are expected to cool into the mid 40s to low 50s. No updates are anticipated at this time.

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 251 PM PDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Another cloudy and cool afternoon, but with a slightly different setup compared to yesterday as the the low pressure has moved closer to the coast. While the low continues to push plenty of clouds onshore cloud heights and marine layer thickness increased as the low moved closer. What does that mean? Well it will be slightly harder for the cloud cover to erode this afternoon.

The low pressure slowly makes its way inland tonight. The deeper marine layer may limit fog development to only a few patches in the North Bay, otherwise expect another cloudy night followed by a cool and cloudy Thursday.

While Thursday continues the trend of cloudy skies, the upper level pattern shifts, allowing for more northwest flow and bringing back some breezier northwest winds into the forecast.

LONG TERM
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 251 PM PDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Still cloudy and cool with some pockets of drizzle for early Friday as the low pressure exits and the marine layer compresses just enough for lower clouds. Friday's pressure gradient change from the low's exit will make for even breezier conditions for Friday specifically for higher peaks and along the Big Sur coast. The more active winds will allow for better clearing of cloud coverage in the late afternoon

While the new upper level pattern still allows for onshore flow, cloud cover becomes less pervasive. While the immediate coast will continue to struggle with cloud cover, most areas slightly more inland and well into the interior will see quicker clearing times.
This will place most areas back into the 60s and 70s into the next work week, while the coast will stick to around 60 degree highs.

Longer term models still struggle with the next pattern change at the beginning of next month. While the ECMWF families place rain chances back into the forecast, others favor more cloudy and drizzly conditions, and a few keep the moisture well to the north.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1122 PM PDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Cloudy and overcast conditions prevail once more, though unlike last night which saw largely VFR conditions prevailing despite cloud cover, tonight is likely to see widespread MVFR CIGs as the marine layer continues to compress as a shortwave ridge builds. This will lower CIGs to around 1500' for most terminals. At this time, not expecting CIGs to deteriorate below MVFR, though Monterey Bay terminals may come close briefly in the mid morning Thursday. Most terminals clear late in the morning of Thursday, with winds steadily increasing out of the west to become moderate to strong, and gusting 20-25+ knots well into the evening hours. KSFO is likely to see the strongest gusts nearing 30 knots.

Aside from moderate to strong winds and gusty conditions, models are in good agreement indicating stratus making an aggressive push inland near 00Z-02Z Friday. Strong onshore winds help advect these low clouds inland, bringing widespread MVFR conditions once more.
MVFR lasts beyond the TAF period.

Vicinity of SFO...Satellite shows stratus encircling the majority of the SF Bay at this hour. CIG heights per the KSFO metar are around 1300' at the moment, ushering in MVFR conditions. Expect MVFR CIGs to last into the late morning before brief lifting to VFR for a few hours into the afternoon. Despite improvement to VFR conditions, low to mid level clouds will continue to be present throughout the duration of the TAF period. Winds will begin to strengthen and gust 25+ knots out of the west by the time of clearing, with winds continually strengthening into the early afternoon. Stratus and subsequent MVFR CIGs will return in the early evening, ushered in by strong westerly winds. MVFR then lasts well beyond the end of the TAF period with winds slowly decreasing into the late night to around 10 knots.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...MVFR conditions persist throughout the night, though KMRY is likely to see IFR develop beyond midnight Thursday as CIGs continually lower. As it stands, there is between a 60-75% chance of IFR CIG development at the most favored times for KMRY. Elsewhere, chances only stand at about 50% of achieving IFR conditions, so have left with prevailing MVFR conditions for now.
This will be something to watch closely through the night however as confidence on maintaining MVFR conditions for terminals outside KMRY is marginal. Otherwise, KMRY improves to MVFR as CIGs lift beyond sunrise. Stratus will continue to shroud area terminals through the TAF period with no improvement to VFR expected.
Chances of VFR are only in the 30-40% range, therefore have gone with MVFR prevailing through the entire TAF period. Winds onshore, moderate, and gusting to around 20 knots beginning in the late morning and continuing through the late night.

MARINE
(Tonight through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1122 PM PDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Gentle to moderate NW winds continue into Friday with occasional moderate to fresh gusts possible throughout portions of the coastal waters. Gustier fresh to strong winds with near gale force and isolated gale force gusts possible heading into Friday as an upper level trough and surface low pressure system move inland. Moderate period northwest swell will continue to move through the waters through Saturday. Light long period southerly swell continues through end of forecast period.

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 9 PM PDT Thursday for Mry Bay.

Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Thursday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 3 PM PDT Thursday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Thursday to 3 AM PDT Friday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Thursday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

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San Francisco
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Thu -- 12:28 AM PDT     5.67 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:20 AM PDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:03 AM PDT     Moonset
Thu -- 07:08 AM PDT     -0.53 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 02:16 PM PDT     4.20 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:44 PM PDT     2.60 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:55 PM PDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:09 PM PDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

San Francisco, California, Tide feet

Golden Gate Bridge .8 mi E .
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Thu -- 02:07 AM PDT     -0.01 knots Slack
Thu -- 05:49 AM PDT     -3.19 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 06:20 AM PDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:03 AM PDT     Moonset
Thu -- 09:20 AM PDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 12:20 PM PDT     3.02 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 03:47 PM PDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 06:19 PM PDT     -1.59 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 07:55 PM PDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:58 PM PDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 10:09 PM PDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Golden Gate Bridge .8 mi E ., San Francisco Bay, California Current, knots

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