Sunrise 6:19 AM   Sunset 7:55 PM Moonrise 8:04 PM   Moonset 5:33 AM

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PZZ530 San Pablo Bay, Suisun Bay, The West Delta And The San Francisco Bay North Of The Bay Bridge- 229 Am Pdt Wed Apr 24 2024
Today - SW winds 5 to 10 knots - .increasing to 10 to 15 knots this afternoon. A slight chance of very light drizzle this morning. Tonight - W winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Thu - W winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Thu night - W winds 10 to 20 knots with gusts up to 30 knots. Fri - W winds 10 to 20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Fri night - W winds 10 to 20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Sat - W winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Sun - W winds 10 to 15 knots.

PZZ500 229 Am Pdt Wed Apr 24 2024
Synopsis for the central california coast and bays including the Monterey bay - Greater farallones - .and cordell bank national marine sanctuaries - .
light to gentle southwesterly breezes continue this morning and through the early afternoon today. Towards the afternoon, winds slowly turn to become more northerly and moderate to fresh and last through the early portion of Friday. Starting Friday afternoon, northerly winds strengthen to become strong and gusty, with gale force gusts likely into the late night. Northwest swell continues to move through the waters this week with a period of about 10-12 seconds. Small southerly swell with a period of about 14-16 seconds persists through the week as well.

FXUS66 KMTR 240844 AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 144 AM PDT Wed Apr 24 2024

New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM

SYNOPSIS
Issued at 1228 AM PDT Wed Apr 24 2024

A deep marine layer and expansive cloud coverage will keep temperatures cool through Thursday before a cold front brings strong wind on Friday. Clearer skies and slightly warmer temperatures are expected this weekend.

SHORT TERM
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 1228 AM PDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Stratus coverage is quite expansive early this morning due to a deep marine layer. Some light drizzle is possible along windward facing slopes this morning, although there hasn't been any measurable precipitation so far. The cloud cover will keep morning temperatures near normal, with high temperatures 5-10 degrees below normal this afternoon.

The weather pattern is fairly dynamic over the next few days. A persistent low pressure system off the coast of San Francisco will finally weaken and open up into a trough late today, bringing the return of NW flow. The supporting upper-level cut-off low will evacuate to the east on Thursday, allowing a small amplitude ridge to become established. This high pressure will squish the marine layer from around 4,000 ft on Wednesday to around 1,500 ft on Thursday. This change will bring lower, but less expansive cloud coverage and the potential for morning fog. This regime won't last long as a new cold front and associated trough move will move through on Friday.

LONG TERM
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 1228 AM PDT Wed Apr 24 2024

The Weather Prediction Center forecasts the cold front to move through Friday morning, with a slight chance for light rain on either side. The biggest impact from this system will be strong NW wind behind the front. Our official forecast has gale force wind gusts along the coast of Sonoma, Marin, and Big Sur on Friday afternoon and evening. NBM probabilities are above 95% of confirming the previous sentence. All of this has led me to strongly consider a wind advisory. While there is still some uncertainty if the threshold will be hit between Marin and Monterey counties (roughly a 30% chance), I'd rather have the advisory out with as much lead time as possible to allow the Rocky Creek slip-out repair crew time to secure the crane for high winds. The downside of the early issuance is that the coverage may need to be expanded over the next 24 hours if the rest of the coast or inland areas start trending higher in the guidance.

Winds will remain strong through the night Friday before gradually decreasing through the weekend. The cold front will also usher in a dryer airmass with much less cloud coverage expected this weekend, especially for inland areas. This will allow temperatures to return to normal through the weekend and into early next week.

Some super long range guidance is starting to hint at a potential storm during the first weekend in May. While there have been some aggressive deterministic runs lately, the current ECMWF and GEFS ensemble means both keep the total precipitation under 1/2" at San Francisco. Even that would be a lot for May, however, which typically averages about 1/2" for the entire month. The Climate Prediction Center is also taking note of this and showing slightly wetter than normal conditions in the 8-14 day outlook (May 1-7). This is just something to keep an eye on for now.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1117 PM PDT Tue Apr 23 2024

At this hour, most terminals are VFR but low to mid level clouds just above the threshold of MVFR CIGs continue to linger over area terminals. Through the night, cloud cover is expected to increase, with CIGs lowering to just meet MVFR conditions for most terminals in the early to mid morning of Wednesday. Cloud CIGs are at greater altitudes than in previous nights thanks to the movement of a trough through the region, providing ample lift and rise. Towards the later morning, CIGs are expected to lift to usher in VFR conditions, though clouds around 4000-5000' will persist. Winds out of the W/SW predominantly this afternoon and breezy between 10-15 knots for most terminals. Terminals near coastal gaps are likely to see stronger gusts nearing 20 knots. In the late evening, winds ease below 10 knots and generally become more westerly. Low clouds return beyond the current TAF period to bring MVFR conditions once more.

Vicinity of SFO...Currently VFR despite the presence of clouds, but expected to become MVFR as CIGs lower. Hi-res models show KSFO seemingly waffling in and out of MVFR CIGs in the mid morning up until sunrise, with the greatest chances of achieving MVFR around 45% near 14Z. Confidence on MVFR CIG development is low-moderate, so this will be something that is watched closely through the night.
However, into the late morning and afternoon, high confidence for VFR CIGs . Winds initially out of the SW and breezy near 12 knots and gusting up to 20, eventually turning to become more westerly into the late evening.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR conditions persist through at least the mid morning of Wednesday, but are expected to become MVFR around 15Z as CIGs lower. Clearing to VFR expected again into the late morning and lasting through the remainder of the TAF period. Winds SW in the afternoon and breezy around 15 knots. Gusts around 20 knots are likely in the later afternoon. Winds ease into the late night to below 10 knots.

MARINE
(Tonight through next Monday)
Issued at 902 PM PDT Tue Apr 23 2024

A weak low pressure system off the coast will continue to bring light to moderate southerly winds over the coastal waters. As this system begin to weaken tonight, northwest flow will return over the waters ushering in calmer conditions. Moderate swells will persist through the week.

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...None.
PZ...None.

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San Francisco
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Wed -- 12:03 AM PDT     5.62 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:21 AM PDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:33 AM PDT     Moonset
Wed -- 06:35 AM PDT     -0.29 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 01:28 PM PDT     4.30 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:14 PM PDT     2.26 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:54 PM PDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:03 PM PDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

San Francisco, California, Tide feet

Golden Gate Bridge .8 mi E .
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Wed -- 01:42 AM PDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 05:13 AM PDT     -3.13 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 06:21 AM PDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:33 AM PDT     Moonset
Wed -- 08:45 AM PDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 11:42 AM PDT     3.10 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 03:02 PM PDT     -0.01 knots Slack
Wed -- 05:40 PM PDT     -1.79 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 07:54 PM PDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:32 PM PDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 09:03 PM PDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 11:26 PM PDT     2.27 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Golden Gate Bridge .8 mi E ., San Francisco Bay, California Current, knots

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