Monday, November20, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Boston, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:48AMSunset 4:53PM Monday November 20, 2017 4:18 AM EST (09:18 UTC) Moonrise 8:30AMMoonset 6:44PM Illumination 3% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Friendsville , PA
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location: 41.88, -75.96     debug


Area Discussion for - Binghamton, NY
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Fxus61 kbgm 200823
afdbgm
area forecast discussion
national weather service binghamton ny
323 am est Mon nov 20 2017

Synopsis
Accumulating lake effect snow will continue in north central
new york this morning, shifting mainly north of the new york
thruway by mid morning. However, at least scattered snow
showers and flurries can be expected across the rest of central
new york today and even northeast pennsylvania this morning.

Milder temperatures and dry weather are expected into Tuesday.

Near term through tonight
315 am update...

evolution and eventual end of ongoing lake effect snow will be
the main forecast issue in the near term.

Lake huron to lake ontario connection became established over
the last several hours, which on radar has stretched a 20-35
dbz band of snow across onondaga and madison counties, reaching
in pieces to the cooperstown area. Under the heaviest part of
the band, 1 to 2 inch-per-hour snowfall rates are likely
occurring. Visibility has been about a half mile at times at
syracuse and rome overnight. As the lake-to-lake connection
band became dominant, the earlier one in oneida county
dissipated. However, upstream the boundary layer flow is already
beginning to back westerly as evidenced by the shifting band in
western lake ontario. As flow continues to back across our
region, there will be a lifting of the primary lake band
northward along and then north of the ny thruway this morning,
which will get oneida county back into the snow. All told,
an additional 2 to 5 inches of snow is expected from 4 am
through early afternoon in the lake effect snow warning area,
with locally higher amounts in far northern onondaga-madison
counties. The warning GOES through 1 pm, but onondaga-madison-
southern oneida counties will probably be able to be dropped
well ahead of that time as the band lifts.

Lake ontario has not produced the only action, however. Lake
erie has also caused band extensions to reach into the twin
tiers and even the greater wilkes-barre scranton metro and the
poconos at times. The resulting dusting of snow, and
temperatures falling below freezing causing ice within
previously wet roadways, will mean slick spots still possible on
untreated roads. Scattered snow showers and flurries will still
occur at times this morning for northeast pa-southern tier ny,
and into the afternoon for the rest of central ny. This will be
courtesy of lake erie moisture as flow continues to back
westerly to west-southwest with time. That being said, warm air
advection aloft will cause compression of the cloud layer to
significantly limit snowfall rates.

Temperatures today will quietly sneak up in the mid 30s-near 40
for highs, which along with dry air and west winds gusting 15-25
mph, as well as ground temperatures still well above freezing; will
tend to melt or sublimate the fluffy lake snow. Higher terrain
of central ny however will struggle to get above the lower 30s.

Southwest to south flow, and warm air advection aloft, will lead
to a clearing sky into tonight. Temperatures will settle into
the upper 20s-lower 30s this evening, then hold fairly steady
overnight.

Short term Tuesday through Thursday
Mild SW flow continues Tuesday as a low pressure system and
associated upper level trough move across northern ontario.

Expect plenty of sunshine with highs mainly in the low 50s to
even some mid 50s across the warmer spots such as the wyoming
valley and western southern tier into the lake plain. The cold
front associated with this low will move across the area after
midnight Tuesday night bringing with it a swath of rain showers
which will change over to snow showers in the cooler air behind
the front. Not expecting this will amount to much
accumulation... .At most a coating to half inch, if that by
Wednesday morning with any accumulation being mainly limited to
higher terrain areas of central ny. The other complicating
factor with this part of the forecast will be that some of the
models (gem and ecmwf) hook this front up with some moisture
coming up from the south which could enhance precip a bit over
eastern zones through the catskills. This will have to be
monitored for future updates. Lows by Wednesday morning will be
generally in the low to mid 30s.

For Wednesday, some lingering precip will continue to be
possible into the morning with otherwise a mainly dry and
cooler day behind the front. The one exception will be across
northern counties where some weak lake effect snow will be
possible around the i-90 corridor in the cold NW flow off the
lakes however this doesn't look to amount to much. Highs will
generally range from the mid 30s to low 40s, mildest over NE pa
and sullivan county.

High pressure builds in for Wednesday night setting the stage
for a cold night under mainly clear to partly cloudy skies with
light winds. Lows will be mainly in the low to mid 20s with
some teens possible across the colder spots in steuben county as
well as the catskills.

The ridge of high pressure moves off to the S E thanksgiving day
but conditions stay mainly dry with sunshine giving way to some
increasing late day clouds ahead of the next front approaching
from the north. A developing W SW flow could spark a few lake
effect flurries late day north of i-90 but this should not be of
any consequence.

Long term Thursday night through Sunday
320 pm update...

upper low moves from the hudson bay into quebec Thursday night
into Friday, bringing a cold front into the upstate. We may see
a little bit of light snow over (mainly) the northern tier of
counties Friday in association with the front. By Friday
evening, though, the boundary layer flow is expected to become
southwesterly and set up a low-level warm advection pattern over
the region as the front moves back north as a warm front.

Forecast confidence wanes from there. Plenty of discrepancies are
evident with regard to timing, evolution, and impacts from the next
system. In general, expect precipitation probabilities to increase
heading into next weekend as the upper-level storm system pushes a
surface low from ontario into quebec. Depending on the upper
trough's amplitude, this could push the associated cold fronts
through the region sometime between Saturday night and Sunday night.

I've stayed fairly close to the model blend during this period given
evolutionary uncertainty.

Aviation 08z Monday through Friday
Aviation impacts will be mainly due to lake effect snow,
especially the remainder of the night through the morning.

Up to 13z-14z, ksyr and krme will often be under the main lake
ontario band with frequent ifr conditions and below fuel
alternate minimums at times from low visibility and blowing
snow. Scattered snow showers and flurries will be found
elsewhere, though associated restrictions will be brief and
generally MVFR. Lake erie band however will skim by kavp with
ifr vis between 07z-09z. Outside of lake effect,VFR will become
predominant across the region, with 3-5 kft agl ceilings
lifting and scattering out with time. Wnw winds of 9-12 knots,
with gusts of 16-20 knots, will slacken while backing southwest
late afternoon through evening.

Outlook...

Tuesday...VFR.

Tuesday night through Wednesday... Restrictions possible in
scattered rain snow showers.

Wednesday night through Friday... MainlyVFR.

Bgm watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Ny... Lake effect snow warning until 1 pm est this afternoon for
nyz009-018-036-037.

Synopsis... Mdp
near term... Mdp
short term... Pcf
long term... Dab
aviation... Mdp


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Melfa / Accomack Airport, VA12 mi48 minNW 910.00 miFair44°F28°F53%1017.6 hPa

Wind History from BGM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW15
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1 day agoS5S5S6S7S8SE12SW11S8
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2 days agoNW14
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NW9NW7NW12W11
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NW9NW6NW5N3CalmE3SE3CalmS4SE5S6S6S7SE5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
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Wind Forecast for Binghamton, NY (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Binghamton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.