Sunrise 6:18 AM   Sunset 7:48 PM Moonrise 6:46 PM   Moonset 4:59 AM

  Print   HELP   Reset   Save   Recall

ANZ631 Chesapeake Bay From Windmill Point To New Point Comfort Va- 952 Am Edt Tue Apr 23 2024
.small craft advisory in effect from 4 pm edt this afternoon through Wednesday morning - .
Today - W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S early this afternoon, then becoming se 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt late. Waves 1 foot or less, then around 2 ft this afternoon. Tonight - S winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, becoming sw late. Waves 3 to 4 ft. Wed - SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves 3 to 4 ft, subsiding to 2 ft in the afternoon. A chance of showers. Wed night - W winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming N 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt after midnight. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Thu - NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Thu night - E winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 foot or less. Fri - E winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Fri night - E winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Sat - SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 foot or less, then around 2 ft in the afternoon. Sat night - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft.

FXUS61 KBGM 231045 AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 645 AM EDT Tue Apr 23 2024

SYNOPSIS
Dry again today with clouds moving in through the afternoon.
Rain showers move in tonight ahead of a cold front coming through Wednesday morning. Seasonably cold weather expected Wednesday afternoon and overnight before warmer and drier weather returns for the end of the week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
635 AM Update...

Updated temperatures a bit but otherwise no changes made.

310 AM Update...

With only a few high clouds moving through early this morning it is another cold night with good radiational cooling. valleys have cooled faster than the ridges so used our fog tool to lower temperatures in the valleys. Upper level ridging is building in as well with southerly flow developing in the lower levels so despite some more filtered sun today, temperatures will warm to 5 to 10 degrees warmer than yesterday. Forecast soundings show dry air still in place above the mixing layer so odds are dew points will fall below model guidance so used the canadian reg as well as NBM 10th to get dew points lower for late morning through early afternoon. Boundary layer moisture does begin to advect in late this afternoon as an area of low pressure moves into the Great Lakes region.

Tonight, rain showers move in from west to east. Chances of precipitation were delayed until after 7 pm this evening as dry air in place will take some time to saturate. Looking at RH levels through the atmosphere, there does look to be a dry slot trying to nudge into NEPA and the Southern Tier as the precipitation begins so QPF amounts were lowered. Across the NY thruway, steadier precipitation is possible as the low traverses from west to east through northern NY.

Headed into Wednesday, a strong cold front moves through so day time highs will likely occur before noon with falling temperatures through the day. Really cut back on chances of precipitation especially behind the cold front as the 500 mb shortwave axis moves east of us as well as strong cold air advection. Some models still show post frontal precipitation but with the strength of the negative vorticity advection in the mid and upper levels sinking air will make it tough to get much beyond some isolated drizzle.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
330 AM update...

A quiet period is in store as the upper level trough slowly begins to lift out of our region Wednesday night with high pressure building in at the surface. As a result clear skies and light winds will embrace the region Wednesday night. Cooler air mass remains in place with lows falling into the mid 20s to low 30s with the help of radiational cooling. Similar pattern continues into Thursday with quiet and cool conditions expected under northerly flow. Highs are expected to climb into the 50s Thursday afternoon with plenty of sunshine. Another cool and clear night is expected Thursday with lows ranging in the low to mid 30s across the region.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
330 AM update...

Large scale upper level ridging moves in on Friday with quiet and dry conditions expected to continue. Southerly flow returns with temperatures beginning to climb back into the 60s once again. Meanwhile a deep low pressure system moves into the upper midwest Friday night into Saturday morning with a warm front expanding from the Great Lakes through the Carolinas. We begin to see the impacts of this system early Saturday morning with the increasing chance of rain showers over our region. Behind this front a warming trend establishes especially on Sunday with temperatures expected to soar into the low to mid 70s. This warm and unstable air mass may kick off some scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Overall the upper level ridge continues to reign during this period with a few disturbances moving through from Sunday into Monday. Pattern begins to break sometime Tuesday with an upper trough pushes back in.

AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR conditions expected at all terminals through at least 0Z this evening. Rain moves in from west to east with SYR and RME having the best chance at seeing rain reach the ground prior to 6Z but restrictions not expected untill after 6Z. Rain showers will be numerous but with lower intensity so vis restrictions are uncertain but as more moisture moves in, cigs will drop to MVFR at most terminals. AVP will hold on to some dry air so there is lower chances of seeing MVFR prior to 12Z.

Outlook...
Wednesday thru Wednesday night...Occasional restrictions possible in rain showers.

Thursday through Friday...Mainly VFR.

Saturday...Restrictions possible in rain showers, especially in the afternoon and evening.

FIRE WEATHER
Dry conditions with gusty winds are expected again today. Min RHs will fall below 30% for much of the region with a few locations falling below 20%, mainly in warmer valley locations.
Wind gusts this afternoon will get up to near 25 mph for higher elevations and 15 to 20 mph for valley locations. With fine fuels drying out yesterday and continued drying late this morning into the afternoon, a SPS has been issued for NY counties. After coordination with NYSDEC, the decision was made to issue a special weather statement for New York, however at this time, an SPS for northeast PA will not be issued based on coordination with PA DCNR.

RH does look to recover late this afternoon into the early evening as dew points begin to rise as moisture begins to move in from the SW ahead of a cold front. Models tend to bring moisture in too quickly so RHs were kept lower until after sunset.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NY...None.

toggle option: (graph/table)

Gaskins Point
Click for Map
Tue -- 05:51 AM EDT     0.12 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:59 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 06:17 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:16 AM EDT     1.71 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:46 PM EDT     0.16 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:45 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:46 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 07:51 PM EDT     Full Moon
Tue -- 11:30 PM EDT     1.98 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Gaskins Point, Occohannock Creek, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia, Tide feet

Nassawadox Creek
Click for Map
Tue -- 04:36 AM EDT     0.13 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:59 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 06:17 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 10:40 AM EDT     1.81 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:31 PM EDT     0.18 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:45 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:46 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 07:51 PM EDT     Full Moon
Tue -- 10:54 PM EDT     2.10 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Nassawadox Creek, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia, Tide feet

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Binghamton, NY,