Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Arroyo, PR
March 28, 2024 11:13 PM CST (05:13 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:38 AM Sunset 5:52 PM Moonrise 8:30 PM Moonset 10:04 AM |
Area Discussion for - San Juan, PR
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FXCA62 TJSJ 282122 AFDSJU
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Juan PR 522 PM AST Thu Mar 28 2024
SYNOPSIS
A ridge of high pressure extending across the southwest, along with an area of low pressure to the northeast at about 600 miles, will result in light to moderate winds with a northerly component persisting until the end of the week and into the weekend. Also this weather scenario will limit shower activity across the local region until Saturday. On Saturday, a cold front now located over the eastern U.S. and extending south to Central America will move ESE and over the local region. This weather feature will increase the shower coverage Saturday into early Sunday.
SHORT TERM
Tonight through Saturday...
Today, stable weather conditions were observed across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. There were mostly clear skies and winds from the north-northwest at around 5 to 15 mph. Generally, minimum temperatures ranged from the upper 50s to lower 60s in the interior to the 70s along the coasts. Maximum temperatures were up to the low to mid-80s.
The inherited forecast remains on track. The latest Precipitable Water content (PWAT) shows below-normal values across the forecast area, lower than one inch. This will support prevailing fair weather conditions with just a few isolated showers possible over windward coastal areas, mainly during the evening and night hours until Saturday.
By Saturday, a change in the weather pattern is anticipated as models continue to suggest a cold front, now located over the eastern U.S., will approach the local area during the day, increasing the chance of showers across Puerto Rico and the U.S.
Virgin Islands. We will continue to monitor closely for any updates in the forecast.
LONG TERM
Sunday through Wednesday...
//from previous discussion...416 AM AST Thu Mar 28 2024//
The inherited forecast remains unchanged. The latest model guidance continues to suggest that residual moisture associated with the passage of the cold front will remain over the area through the end of the weekend. From Sunday into Monday, a brief dry air mass will filter across the region, allowing the Precipitable Water (PW) values to drop from 1.60 to around an inch. This means that the PW content will go from above-normal climatological levels to around normal to slightly below-normal climatological levels for this time of the year. On Sunday, the surface high pressure, now located over the state of Mississippi, just behind the aforementioned cold front, will introduce northeasterly light to moderate winds across the area. Under this wind pattern, occasional trade wind showers cannot be ruled out of the forecast. By the beginning of the workweek, the cold front will stall close to the region, allowing the northeasterly trades to bring back additional patches of moisture associated with the frontal system into the area. At this time, the model suggests that the PW values will stay around an inch/slightly below normal climatological levels.
A change in weather conditions will occur on Wednesday as a drier airmass filters across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands.
From midweek onwards, expect the wind to shift and become easterly, allowing stable and typical weather conditions to prevail across the islands.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
VFR conditions will continue throughout the next 24 hours. Winds will prevail from the N-NW btw 10 to 15 kts with higher gusts and sea breeze variations, becoming calm to light and variable after 28/23Z. We are not expecting significant rainfall activity.
MARINE
A surface high pressure ridge extending across the southwest Atlantic and a distant area of low pressure northeast of the region will promote light to moderate north to northwest winds through the end of the week. A large northerly swell generated by the before mentioned low pressure will continue to affect the local Atlantic waters including all local passages. This swell event already peak and now is slowly subsiding but dangerous and hazardous marine conditions will prevail through the weekend.
Another pulse of energy in the form of swells will affect the same areas early Sunday morning.
BEACH FORECAST
On Wednesday, multiple search and rescue operations were conducted along the northern coast of Puerto Rico due to rough seas and strong rip currents. There were reports of five search and rescue incidents, including one drowning at Montones beach in Isabela and an ongoing search for a person at La Pared beach in Luquillo. Despite the northerly swell having already peaked, hazardous and dangerous beach conditions will persist through the upcoming weekend, with another swell event expected to reach our local coast on Sunday.
For more information and details please refer to the latest Surf Zone Forecast (SRFSJU), and the Coastal Hazard Message product (CFWSJU).
SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PR...High Rip Current Risk through Friday afternoon for PRZ001-002- 005-008-010.
High Surf Advisory until 6 PM AST this evening for PRZ001-002- 005-008-010.
High Rip Current Risk until 6 PM AST this evening for PRZ011>013.
VI...High Rip Current Risk until 6 PM AST this evening for VIZ001-002.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM AST Friday for AMZ711.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM AST this evening for AMZ712-716- 741-742-745.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Juan PR 522 PM AST Thu Mar 28 2024
SYNOPSIS
A ridge of high pressure extending across the southwest, along with an area of low pressure to the northeast at about 600 miles, will result in light to moderate winds with a northerly component persisting until the end of the week and into the weekend. Also this weather scenario will limit shower activity across the local region until Saturday. On Saturday, a cold front now located over the eastern U.S. and extending south to Central America will move ESE and over the local region. This weather feature will increase the shower coverage Saturday into early Sunday.
SHORT TERM
Tonight through Saturday...
Today, stable weather conditions were observed across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. There were mostly clear skies and winds from the north-northwest at around 5 to 15 mph. Generally, minimum temperatures ranged from the upper 50s to lower 60s in the interior to the 70s along the coasts. Maximum temperatures were up to the low to mid-80s.
The inherited forecast remains on track. The latest Precipitable Water content (PWAT) shows below-normal values across the forecast area, lower than one inch. This will support prevailing fair weather conditions with just a few isolated showers possible over windward coastal areas, mainly during the evening and night hours until Saturday.
By Saturday, a change in the weather pattern is anticipated as models continue to suggest a cold front, now located over the eastern U.S., will approach the local area during the day, increasing the chance of showers across Puerto Rico and the U.S.
Virgin Islands. We will continue to monitor closely for any updates in the forecast.
LONG TERM
Sunday through Wednesday...
//from previous discussion...416 AM AST Thu Mar 28 2024//
The inherited forecast remains unchanged. The latest model guidance continues to suggest that residual moisture associated with the passage of the cold front will remain over the area through the end of the weekend. From Sunday into Monday, a brief dry air mass will filter across the region, allowing the Precipitable Water (PW) values to drop from 1.60 to around an inch. This means that the PW content will go from above-normal climatological levels to around normal to slightly below-normal climatological levels for this time of the year. On Sunday, the surface high pressure, now located over the state of Mississippi, just behind the aforementioned cold front, will introduce northeasterly light to moderate winds across the area. Under this wind pattern, occasional trade wind showers cannot be ruled out of the forecast. By the beginning of the workweek, the cold front will stall close to the region, allowing the northeasterly trades to bring back additional patches of moisture associated with the frontal system into the area. At this time, the model suggests that the PW values will stay around an inch/slightly below normal climatological levels.
A change in weather conditions will occur on Wednesday as a drier airmass filters across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands.
From midweek onwards, expect the wind to shift and become easterly, allowing stable and typical weather conditions to prevail across the islands.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
VFR conditions will continue throughout the next 24 hours. Winds will prevail from the N-NW btw 10 to 15 kts with higher gusts and sea breeze variations, becoming calm to light and variable after 28/23Z. We are not expecting significant rainfall activity.
MARINE
A surface high pressure ridge extending across the southwest Atlantic and a distant area of low pressure northeast of the region will promote light to moderate north to northwest winds through the end of the week. A large northerly swell generated by the before mentioned low pressure will continue to affect the local Atlantic waters including all local passages. This swell event already peak and now is slowly subsiding but dangerous and hazardous marine conditions will prevail through the weekend.
Another pulse of energy in the form of swells will affect the same areas early Sunday morning.
BEACH FORECAST
On Wednesday, multiple search and rescue operations were conducted along the northern coast of Puerto Rico due to rough seas and strong rip currents. There were reports of five search and rescue incidents, including one drowning at Montones beach in Isabela and an ongoing search for a person at La Pared beach in Luquillo. Despite the northerly swell having already peaked, hazardous and dangerous beach conditions will persist through the upcoming weekend, with another swell event expected to reach our local coast on Sunday.
For more information and details please refer to the latest Surf Zone Forecast (SRFSJU), and the Coastal Hazard Message product (CFWSJU).
SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PR...High Rip Current Risk through Friday afternoon for PRZ001-002- 005-008-010.
High Surf Advisory until 6 PM AST this evening for PRZ001-002- 005-008-010.
High Rip Current Risk until 6 PM AST this evening for PRZ011>013.
VI...High Rip Current Risk until 6 PM AST this evening for VIZ001-002.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM AST Friday for AMZ711.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM AST this evening for AMZ712-716- 741-742-745.
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