Sunrise 6:05 AM   Sunset 6:42 PM Moonrise 12:57 PM   Moonset 1:40 AM

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AMZ735 Coastal Waters Of Southern Puerto Rico Out 10 Nm- 435 Am Ast Tue Apr 16 2024
Today - East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas around 5 feet. Dominant period 6 seconds. Isolated Thunderstorms this morning. Scattered showers.Tonight - East winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming northeast after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas around 5 feet. Dominant period 6 seconds. Scattered showers.Wednesday - East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet. Dominant period 6 seconds. Scattered showers. Isolated Thunderstorms in the afternoon.Wednesday night - Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Numerous showers with isolated Thunderstorms.Thursday - Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Isolated showers.Friday - Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet or less. Dominant period 7 seconds. Isolated showers.Saturday - East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet. Dominant period 6 seconds. Scattered showers.

AMZ700 435 Am Ast Tue Apr 16 2024
Synopsis for puerto rico and the uS. Virgin islands waters - . A surface ridge over the north-central atlantic and broad surface trough across the eastern caribbean will generate moderate to locally fresh east-southeasterly winds. A fading northerly swell and choppy wind driven seas will continue to promote choppy seas across the atlantic waters. An upper level trough and induced surface trough will continue to promote inclement weather across the local waters for the next few days, with squally weather and Thunderstorms possible at times. Another northeasterly swell is forecast to arrive by Thursday.

FXCA62 TJSJ 160852 AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Juan PR 452 AM AST Tue Apr 16 2024

SYNOPSIS

Wet and unstable conditions continue through at least tomorrow with favorable conditions for heavy shower and thunderstorm development. Quick river rises and water surges with flash flooding, and landslides are possible. Conditions should improve by the latter half of the week. Small Craft Advisories are in effect through late tonight. A wet pattern is forecast for next week.



SHORT TERM
Today through Thursday...

An unstable and very moist pattern continued across the region overnight and will persist today through Wednesday. A surge of tropical moisture trailing a surface trough with axis now crossing Hispaniola and the Mona passage will merge with the moisture and instability associated with the deep layered trough and frontal boundary approaching from the northwest. Recent satellite imagery and doppler weather radar showed strong thunderstorms developing over the offshore Atlantic waters, while shower activity continued to increase across the Caribbean waters and areas between eastern Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. These showers and thunderstorms continued to produced areas of locally heavy rains and frequent lightning mainly over the coastal waters. Showers are however expected to reach the U.S. Virgin islands and portions of east and southeastern Puerto Rico during the rest of the morning hours, then spread and redevelop across the remainder of the islands throughout the day. Early morning low temperatures were in mid to upper 70s along the coastal areas and in the upper 60s to low 70s in higher elevations. Winds were generally light and variable but occasionally higher with the passing showers.

Through the rest of the period, especially until Wednesday afternoon, active and unstable weather conditions are forecast to continue due to the meandering upper trough and good moisture convergence. Recent model guidance as well as recent satelite derived Precipitable water products and analyses all suggest precipitable water (PWAT) values to range between 1.70-2.00 inches across the region today into Wednesday then diminishing by late Wednesday and on Thursday. This pattern will favor good potential for continued scattered to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorm development across portions of the islands and coastal waters at least through early Wednesday. By Wednesday afternoon and on Thursday, with still lingering moisture availability along with diurnal and local effects expect some additional convective development particularly during the early morning and late afternoon hours. By then prevailing winds will become more east northeast with drier air filtering in by the latter part of the period. Due to the unsettled weather pattern and saturated soils, additional heavy rains will lead to quick river rises and water surges with flash flooding, and landslides, especially through early Wednesday. Consequently, today through Wednesday there will be moderate to high potential for showers and thunderstorm development across most of the islands, with periods of excessive rainfall impacts and urban flooding along with mudslides in areas of steep terrain likely. Thereafter, by late Wednesday and on Thursday, improving conditions expected so far, but localized showers and isolated thunderstorms cannot be ruled out with periods of locally heavy rains still possible as well as the potential for additional minor urban and small stream flooding in isolated areas along with mudslides and rockfall in areas of steep terrain.

LONG TERM
Friday through Tuesday...

Areas of low pressure spread across the western to central Atlantic basin will maintain moderate NE winds through the weekend along with enough water content in a lingering airmass to allow passing showers and afternoon convection to fire up during the afternoon due to local effects. By Sunday, the location of a surface high in the western Atlantic will assist the lifting of a moist airmass from the eastern Caribbean. This in combination with a mid to upper-level trough, with the jet max over the region by Saturday through late Sunday, will allow an increase of passing showers and afternoon convection mainly across western Puerto Rico. Winds begin to strengthen and veer, becoming more easterly to southeasterly Monday to Tuesday, respectively, as the aforementioned surface high moves into the central Atlantic. Elevated Precipitable water values and breezy conditions will allow a wet pattern to prevail.



AVIATION
(06z)

SHRA/Isold TSRA will persist across the local flying area due to proximity of a surface trough interacting with an amplifying upper trough and cold frontal boundary quickly approaching from the northwest. Brief MVFR conds psbl due to SHRA and LOW CIG with SHRA/Isold TSRA en route to TJSJ and USVI terminals til 16/14Z.
Isold-SCT TSRA ovr offshore Atl waters N of the islands ovr Anegada passage. MTN TOP OBSCR ovr Ern PR til 16/14Z and over ovr ctrl and west interior of PR fm 16/16z-23Z with VCSH/VCTS psbl at TJBQ/TJSJ and USVI terminals fm 16/15z-16/23Z. SFC Winds lgt/vrb bcmg fm SE 12- 15 kts and ocnly hir gusts aft 16/14Z.



MARINE
A surface ridge over the north-central Atlantic and broad surface trough across the eastern Caribbean will generate moderate to locally fresh east-southeasterly winds. A fading northerly swell and choppy wind driven seas will continue to promote choppy seas across the Atlantic waters. An upper level trough and induced surface trough will continue to promote inclement weather across the local waters for the next few days, with squally weather and thunderstorms possible at times. Another northeasterly swell is forecast to arrive by Thursday.



SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PR...None.
VI...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM AST Wednesday for AMZ711.

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Arroyo
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Tue -- 06:06 AM AST     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:17 AM AST     0.82 feet High Tide
Tue -- 12:56 PM AST     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:41 PM AST     Sunset
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Tue -- 06:05 AM AST     Sunrise
Tue -- 06:29 AM AST     0.72 feet High Tide
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Tue -- 06:40 PM AST     Sunset
Tue -- 08:44 PM AST     0.09 feet Low Tide
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