Sunrise 6:00 AM   Sunset 6:44 PM Moonrise 7:30 PM   Moonset 6:16 AM

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AMZ735 Coastal Waters Of Southern Puerto Rico Out 10 Nm- 850 Am Ast Wed Apr 24 2024
Rest of today - East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet or less. Dominant period 6 seconds. Scattered showers.Tonight - East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet. Dominant period 6 seconds. Scattered showers.Thursday - East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas around 5 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Numerous showers.Thursday night - East winds 10 to 15 knots. Gusts up to 25 knots in the evening. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas around 5 feet. Dominant period 6 seconds. Isolated showers.Friday - East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Isolated showers.Saturday - Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Scattered showers with isolated Thunderstorms.Sunday - Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet. Dominant period 6 seconds. Scattered showers with isolated Thunderstorms.

AMZ700 850 Am Ast Wed Apr 24 2024
Synopsis for puerto rico and the uS. Virgin islands waters - . A small northwesterly swell is expected to arrive later tonight into Thursday. Showers and Thunderstorms will continue to affect the local waters for the next few days. Another surface trough will strengthen the easterly winds today and Thursday, before becoming northeast on Saturday under the influence of a surface high pressure moving off the eastern coast of the united states.

FXCA62 TJSJ 240829 AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Juan PR 429 AM AST Wed Apr 24 2024

SYNOPSIS

The influence of a surface trough will continue to impact the local weather conditions. Another active afternoon is anticipated due to the combination of the surface trough, diurnal heating,and local effects. Winds are forecast to be light today, promoting slow-moving showers and thunderstorms. With the expected weather, the potential for urban and stream flooding remains elevated today.

SHORT TERM
Today through Friday...

Throughout the overnight hours, satellite and radar detected a band of showers and cloud coverage stretching from the Caribbean waters to the Atlantic waters, primarily between eastern Puerto Rico and the USVI. These showers moved slowly, with the land breeze in eastern Puerto Rico keeping them mostly over the waters. However, some moderate to strong showers brushed coastal areas at times.
Eastern coastal portions of Puerto Rico received up to 1.5 inches of rainfall, with the highest amounts observed in Fajardo and Ceiba. A similar pattern is expected to continue during the morning hours, with localized areas across windward coastal sections experiencing showers that could lead to ponding of water on roads and in poor drainage areas. In areas with little to no rain, hazy skies will prevail as suspended Saharan dust particulates continue to move in.
The heat risk for today will be limited across western and northern coastal areas of Puerto Rico.

The axis of the surface trough remains nearby, with light east- southeast winds persisting, influenced by an approaching frontal boundary from the northwest. These winds continue to advect warmer temperatures across the region. Therefore, another active afternoon is anticipated due to the combination of the surface trough, enhanced diurnal heating, marginal instability aloft, and local effects. Gusty wind conditions may be observed, particularly in the vicinity of collapsing thunderstorms. However, winds will be mostly light, which could promote slow-moving showers and thunderstorms.
This will increase the risk of flooding as rainfall accumulations are enhanced by this factor. Activity will be confined mostly over interior Puerto Rico, gradually moving west and north as the afternoon progresses. Heavy showers can also be observed across the San Juan metro area and downwind of the smaller islands.

By Thursday and Friday, the surface perturbation is expected to have moved away from the area. However, a mid-level short-wave trough, along with the aforementioned frontal boundary, will cross the northeastern Caribbean through the end of the week, maintaining or even enhancing unstable conditions across the region. Moisture levels will also remain above normal throughout this period.
According to the GFS Enhanced Galvez-Davison Index, divergence aloft will peak between Thursday evening and early Friday, with maximum values expected over the Atlantic waters between Hispaniola and Puerto Rico. The uncertainty lies in the location of the highest divergence aloft and whether it coincides with surface heating during peak daytime hours or remains mostly over the local waters.

Nevertheless, expect wet and unstable weather conditions for the remainder of the short-term forecast, characterized by alternating periods of heavy showers and isolated to scattered thunderstorms.
Consequently, the risk of flooding will remain elevated, with the potential for urban and small stream flooding, along with localized flash flooding and landslides. Gusty wind conditions and frequent lightning cannot be ruled out, particularly with the strongest activity.

LONG TERM
Saturday through Wednesday....

Lingering moisture from a surface trough will continue to produce a pattern of passing showers on Saturday, especially during the morning hours. By later in the afternoon, this moisture will gradually be pushed south of the local region, as a surface high pressure exits the eastern coast of the United States. This surface high will push drier air into the local area and will promote mainly fair weather conditions for most of the long-term period. The drier airmass will lower the precipitable water values to around 1.20 inches from Saturday through Tuesday. Moderate to fresh northeast winds between 15 to 20 mph with higher gusts are expected in response to the surface high as well. Despite of the drier air filtering into the local area, there is the chance for shower development over the local waters at times. These showers may reach the U.S. Virgin Islands and portions of Puerto Rico. In addition, afternoon convection is possible across the southwestern portions of Puerto Rico each afternoon due to the combination of daytime heating and local effects. Wednesday will be a transition day from a dry into a much wetter pattern. A field of moisture is expected to reach the local area from South America increasing the potential for heavy showers and thunderstorms across the region.
Daytime temperatures are expected to remain in the mid 80s along the coastal and urban areas of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, and in the low 80s across the higher elevations. Heat indices will stay in the mid to upper 90s.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFs)

Expc mainly VFR conditions across all terminals through the forecast period. However, areas of SHRA and SCT TSRA this aftn could produce tempo MVFR/IFR conds and mtn obsc, particularly ovr TJBQ aft 24/17z.
VCTS/SHRA at TJSJ/TJPS for the most part. ESE winds reaching speeds of up to 8-13 knots, accompanied by higher gusts and sea breeze variations aft 24/13z. HZ due to Saharan dust, but VSBY should not drop more than 7 miles.



MARINE

A small northwesterly swell is expected to arrive later tonight into Thursday. Showers and thunderstorms will continue to affect the local waters for the next few days. Another surface trough will strengthen the easterly winds today and Thursday, before becoming northeast on Saturday under the influence of a surface high pressure moving off the eastern coast of the United States.



BEACH FORECAST

Breaking waves of around 3 feet will maintain the risk of rip currents generally low today. However, will become moderate again tonight for the northern beaches of the local islands.

SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PR...None.
VI...None.
AM...None.

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Las Mareas, Puerto Rico, Tide feet

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Wed -- 12:29 AM AST     0.67 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:01 AM AST     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:15 AM AST     Moonset
Wed -- 08:35 AM AST     0.71 feet High Tide
Wed -- 11:43 AM AST     0.02 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:43 PM AST     Sunset
Wed -- 07:29 PM AST     Moonrise
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Arroyo, Puerto Rico, Tide feet

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