Monday, June18, 2018

Marine Weather and Tides
Ponce, PR

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:50AMSunset 7:05PM Monday June 18, 2018 5:11 PM AST (21:11 UTC) Moonrise 10:49AMMoonset 11:45PM Illumination 29% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ735 Coastal Waters Of Southern Puerto Rico Out 10 Nm- 422 Pm Ast Mon Jun 18 2018
Tonight..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas up to 5 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Scattered showers.
Tuesday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas up to 5 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Scattered showers through the day. Isolated Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Tuesday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas up to 5 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Isolated Thunderstorms in the evening. Numerous showers through the night.
Wednesday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas up to 5 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Numerous showers through the day. Isolated Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Wednesday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas up to 5 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Scattered showers.
Thursday..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Isolated showers.
Friday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas up to 5 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Scattered showers. Isolated Thunderstorms.
Saturday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas up to 5 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Isolated Thunderstorms. Scattered showers.
AMZ700 422 Pm Ast Mon Jun 18 2018
Synopsis for puerto rico and the uS. Virgin islands waters... Surface high pressure located across the northeastern atlantic will continue to promote light to moderate east to southeasterly winds throughout the forecast period. A tropical wave is forecast to enter the eastern caribbean later tonight, then move across the forecast area on Tuesday. This will increase the chance for showers and isolated Thunderstorms across the regional waters.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ponce, PR
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location: 17.97, -66.62     debug

Area Discussion for - San Juan, PR
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Fxca62 tjsj 181527
area forecast discussion
national weather service san juan pr
1127 am ast Mon jun 18 2018

Update Mostly sunny and slightly hazy conditions prevailed across
the region this morning with only a few passing showers noted over the
offshore coastal waters of the caribbean. Satellite imagery showed the
tropical wave and associated moisture approaching the windward islands
and is still expected to move across the regional waters overnight through
Tuesday. This feature is expected to bring a slight increase in low
level moisture to the region. As previously mentioned, the
increasing moisture along with the proximity of the upper tutt and
local and diurnal effects will support afternoon convection
mainly over parts of the interior and west sections of puerto
rico. Isolated showers expected elsewhere. Some of the enhanced
afternoon convection may produce strong thunderstorms which could
lead to urban and small stream flooding in isolated areas. No
changes made to the inherited forecast package and reasoning at
this time.

Aviation update Vfr conds to prevail durg entire prd. Few cld
lyrs nr fl025... Fl040... Except bkn-ovc with locally and diurnally
induced aftn shra tsra ovr ctrl mtn range of pr and W pr til
18 22z as previously mentioned. No chg to previous avn discussion.

Tropical wave continued to approach the windward islands and will
enter and cross the eastern caribbean later this evening through
Tuesday. This will increase the chance for shra tsra mainly over
the caribbean waters and the flying area between pr and the
northern leeward islands aft 18 23z.

Marine update No change to previous discussion. Winds will continue
from the east to southeast between 5-15 kts and overall seas between
1-3 feet near shore and 2-4 feet offshore.

Prev discussion issued 448 am ast Mon jun 18 2018

a surface high will continue across the region for the next
several days. Several tropical waves will move across the area
then, and as a result an increase in moisture along with showers
and thunderstorms are expected. At this time the best day for the
showers and thunderstorms will be on Tuesday which coincides with
the peak of the moisture, deepening upper level trough and jet
streak. Drying is expected on Thursday and Friday but showers will
continue in northwest puerto rico each afternoon.

Short term... Today through Wednesday...

surface high in the central atlantic will maintain moderate e-ese
trade winds across the forecast area. An upper level trough across
hispaniola will drift into cuba forced by high pressure that will
nose into the eastern caribbean. The best upper level dynamics,
however, will be Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons as a weak jet
streak crosses through.

Moisture is noted on the mimic product at around 61 degrees west
associated with a tropical wave, but best shower activity is
currently over and south of guadeloupe. GFS model timing and
extrapolation suggest that this moisture should arrive today in time
for afternoon convection. Like yesterday dynamics are not
particularly strong, but strong heating will bring numerous
showers and scattered thunderstorms in northwest puerto rico,
scattered showers in the eastern interior and isolated showers
outside of puerto rico.

Better moisture arrives Tuesday and Wednesday in southeast flow with
a second weak wave and thunderstorms should increase. Some urban and
small stream flooding is expected in the northwest third of puerto

Showers and thunderstorms developed yesterday with limited dynamics
and a similar situation is expected today. Showers should become
more widespread Tuesday and linger through Wednesday as a band of
upper level divergence crosses through. This will generate a wider
area of urban and small stream flooding across western and interior
puerto rico both days. Southeast flow will allow temperatures before
convection begins to reach the lower 90s in many lower elevation

Long term... Thursday through Tuesday...

the surface ridge will continue to prevail across the region with
moderate to fresh easterly winds of 15 to 20 mph. The upper
levels will remain fluid with upper troughs followed by ridging aloft.

Thursday drier air along with saharan dust will create a stable
air mass. Therefore, fair weather conditions are expected with
hazy skies, and showers and isolated thunderstorms mainly across
northwestern puerto rico during the afternoon hours. Friday and
early Saturday a surge of moisture from a tropical wave will reach
the forecast area and increase shower and thunderstorm activity
across the region. Sunday we transition from a moist to a drier
environment as a result of drier air moving into the region.

Models indicate this stable environment will persist until
Tuesday, but showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible
mainly across northwestern puerto rico.

Aviation...VFR conds prevail. Moisture from a tropical wave around
61 west is sprdg shra across the leeward islands and will continue
into the usvi aft 18 12z and across pr by 18 18z triggering numerous
shra sct tsra. Tops to fl500 with mtn obscurations and areas of
MVFR ifr. Return toVFR expected by 18 22z with sct shra for a few
hrs afterwards. Sfc winds E 12-18 kt with sea breeze influences aft
18 14z. MAX winds SW 40-45 kt btwn fl350-480.

Marine... Seas of 2 to 5 feet with east southeast winds of 10 to 15
kts will continue across the local and atlantic waterways over the
next several days. Showers and thunderstorms are possible today
through Tuesday as several tropical waves move across the caribbean
waters. A low risk of rip currents is expected to prevail through
Tuesday across all the local beaches.

Preliminary point temps pops
Sju 91 79 90 77 40 40 60 60
stt 89 80 88 79 40 50 60 60

Sju watches warnings advisories
Pr... None.

Vi... None.

Am... None.

Short term... Ram
long term... .Ram

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
42085 - Southeast of Ponce, PR 9 mi71 min ESE 14 G 16 87°F 83°F1015.4 hPa (-1.6)
JOXP4 - Jobos Bay Reserve, Puerto Rico 21 mi86 min E 8 85°F 1017 hPa76°F
MGIP4 - 9759110 - Magueyes Islands, PR 23 mi41 min SSE 5.1 G 9.9 86°F 85°F1016.3 hPa
AROP4 - 9757809 - Arecibo, PR 36 mi41 min ENE 8 G 13
YABP4 - 9754228 - Yabucoa Harbor, PR 42 mi41 min 87°F
SJNP4 - 9755371 - San Juan, PR 43 mi41 min 83°F 84°F1016.2 hPa
PTRP4 43 mi26 min E 7 G 9.9 84°F
41053 - San Juan, PR 44 mi41 min E 16 G 19 83°F 1015.5 hPa
41115 - Rincon, Puerto Rico (181) 45 mi41 min 84°F1 ft

Wind History for Penuelas (Punta Guayanilla), PR
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1 day
2 days

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure

Wind History from JPS (wind in knots)
Last 24hr--------------------------------------CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoNE5------------------------------------NE5NE5--NE5--
2 days ago--------------------------------------E5--E5--E5

Tide / Current Tables for Playa de Ponce, Puerto Rico
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Playa de Ponce
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Mon -- 12:55 AM AST     0.79 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:51 AM AST     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:49 AM AST     Moonrise
Mon -- 02:08 PM AST     -0.08 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:03 PM AST     Sunset
Mon -- 11:45 PM AST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Punta Guayanilla, Puerto Rico
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Punta Guayanilla
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Mon -- 02:54 AM AST     0.67 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:52 AM AST     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:50 AM AST     Moonrise
Mon -- 01:50 PM AST     -0.02 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:04 PM AST     Sunset
Mon -- 11:45 PM AST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Puerto Rico    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Puerto Rico,Virgin Islands
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.