Monday, May22, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Tallaboa, PR

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 5:51AMSunset 6:57PM Monday May 22, 2017 1:37 PM AST (17:37 UTC) Moonrise 3:16AMMoonset 3:49PM Illumination 9% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ735 Coastal Waters Of Southern Puerto Rico Out 10 Nm- 950 Am Ast Mon May 22 2017
Rest of today..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas up to 5 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Isolated showers.
Tonight..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas up to 5 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Isolated showers.
Tuesday..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Isolated showers.
Tuesday night..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas up to 8 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Isolated showers.
Wednesday..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 5 to 7 feet with occasional seas up to 9 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Isolated showers.
Thursday..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 10 seconds. Southeast swell around 4 feet. Isolated showers.
Friday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas up to 5 feet. Dominant period 8 seconds. Isolated showers.
AMZ700 950 Am Ast Mon May 22 2017
Synopsis for puerto rico and the uS. Virgin islands waters... Weak high pressure over the western atlantic will gradually build and expand over the central atlantic by midweek. As a result...winds and seas are expected to increase by Wednesday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Tallaboa, PR
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location: 17.98, -66.76     debug

Area Discussion for - San Juan, PR
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Fxca62 tjsj 221504 aaa
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service san juan pr
1104 am ast Mon may 22 2017

Update Sounding from 22/12z came in a little warmer between
6300 and 13000 feet today but columnar moisture was better than
yesterday at 21/12z, coming in more than one tenth inch higher at
1.74 inches. The biggest surprise, however, was that CAPE values
came in just over 3200 which is a big jump over yesterday.

Therefore remain optimistic that some convection--and perhaps
quite vigorous--could develop over western puerto rico this
afternoon, especially since the weak and shallow inversion will
offer little resistance once heating is in full swing.

Main changes to the forecast were to bring down temperatures over
puerto rico at mid and high elevations by 2 to 6 degrees today
through Wednesday. Some models are forecasting record
temperatures for which conditions do not exist.

Saharan dust will continue to increase. Geos-5 model shows best
dust over local area to occur 23/15z, but diminish only slowly
thereafter with another pulse later in the week. This will also
make showers less pervasive.

Aviation Vfr prevailing. As heating mixes down drier air only
expectation for MVFR conds is under iso-sct shra/tsra in WRN or
nwrn pr till 22/23z / 23/02z respectively. Visibilities will
likely remain less than 15 miles most areas due to saharan dust.

Sfc winds ene 5 to 15 kt with sea breeze influences and higher
gusts. Maximum winds W 50 to 70 kts from fl380-500 thru 24/00z.

Marine Marine conds are relatively tranquil, but will increase
in the western caribbean and western atlantic on Wednesday. Seas
still expected to reach 7 feet there then.

Prev discussion /issued 503 am ast Mon may 22 2017/
synopsis... Fair weather conditions will prevail most of the week.

Pulses of saharan dust will reach the northeast caribbean over the
next several days reducing somewhat the visibilities. A wetter
pattern is possible during the weekend and early next week as an
induced trough and a tropical wave moves across the region.

Short term... Today through Wednesday...

doppler radar indicated isolated shower activity mostly along the
northern sections of puerto rico as well as across the
surrounding waters overnight and early this morning. The induced
surface trough northeast of the region will continue to drift
northeastward and away from the region today as a surface high
develops north of the local islands. A weak easterly wave over the
central caribbean will continue to move westward and also away
from the local area today. Model guidance suggests that saharan
air layer is expected to increase considerably over the region
today through midweek. This will maintain hazy skies and warmer
than normal temperatures across the region for the next several
days. GFS guidance indicated pwat values at near 1.60 inches
today, decreasing below 1.50 inches Tuesday and thereafter as a
relatively dry and hazy air mass encompass the region from the
east. However, residual moisture will combine with strong daytime
heating, sea breeze convergence and mountains lifting to induce a
new round of showers and thunderstorms over central interior,
western and northwest puerto rico each afternoon. Not significant
precipitation is expected to affect the u.S. Virgin islands.

Long term... Thursday through Tuesday...

upper level ridge will dominate the northeast caribbean Thursday
and Friday while an upper level trough amplifies east of the
lesser antilles. At the surface... High pressure over the central
atlantic will continue to push saharan dust particles over the
local area. Therefore... Conditions will remain hazy, dry and
relatively stable through the end of the work week. Then... An
induced surface trough will promote moisture convergence and
thunderstorm activity during the weekend. A tropical wave will
follow the surface trough keeping the conditions somewhat unstable
through at least early next week.

Aviation... MostlyVFR conditions expected across the local flying
area for the next 24 hours. Vcsh/vcts is possible across tjmz and
tjbq after 22/17z as afternoon convection develops over western and
northwest pr. Winds will increase at 10-15 knots after 22/13z with
sea breeze variations. Latest tjsj sounding indicated an easterly
wind flow up to 15 knots from the sfc to 6k feet, becoming light and
variable between 6k-30k feet and then westerly and stronger above
30k feet.

Marine... High pressure will build over the central atlantic by
midweek resulting in seas building to 5-7 feet across the atlantic
waters. Marine conditions will gradually improve through the weekend
when seas will subside to 2-4 feet across most of the waters.

Preliminary point temps/pops
Sju 90 79 90 80 / 20 20 20 20
stt 89 80 89 80 / 20 20 20 20

Sju watches/warnings/advisories
Pr... None.

Vi... None.

Am... None.

Short term... Ws
long term... .Ws

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
42085 - Southeast of Ponce, PR 15 mi67 min ESE 18 G 21 84°F 1015.6 hPa
IMGP4 15 mi42 min SE 8.9 G 15 87°F
MGIP4 - 9759110 - Magueyes Islands, PR 15 mi61 min SSE 8.9 G 17 85°F 84°F1016.3 hPa
MGZP4 - 9759394 - Mayaguez, PR 27 mi61 min NW 8.9 G 9.9 85°F 88°F1016 hPa
JOXP4 - Jobos Bay Reserve, Puerto Rico 29 mi112 min E 8.9 87°F 1018 hPa73°F
AROP4 - 9757809 - Arecibo, PR 35 mi61 min NE 12 G 17 85°F
PTRP4 37 mi42 min N 6 G 11 81°F
41115 - Rincon, Puerto Rico (181) 39 mi74 min 83°F3 ft
SJNP4 - 9755371 - San Juan, PR 48 mi61 min ENE 15 G 20 83°F 83°F1017 hPa
YABP4 - 9754228 - Yabucoa Harbor, PR 49 mi61 min E 8 G 14
41053 - San Juan, PR 49 mi67 min ENE 16 G 18 82°F 1016.4 hPa

Wind History for Penuelas (Punta Guayanilla), PR
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1 day
2 days

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure

Wind History from JPS (wind in knots)
Last 24hr----------------------------------NE5CalmCalmCalmNE4--Calm
1 day ago----------------------------------CalmCalmCalm--CalmCalm--
2 days ago----------------------------------NE5CalmCalm--CalmCalm--

Tide / Current Tables for Punta Guayanilla, Puerto Rico
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Punta Guayanilla
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Mon -- 03:15 AM AST     Moonrise
Mon -- 05:52 AM AST     Sunrise
Mon -- 12:22 PM AST     0.03 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 03:48 PM AST     Moonset
Mon -- 06:55 PM AST     Sunset
Mon -- 09:23 PM AST     0.57 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Guanica, Puerto Rico
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Mon -- 03:16 AM AST     Moonrise
Mon -- 05:52 AM AST     Sunrise
Mon -- 12:38 PM AST     0.05 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 03:48 PM AST     Moonset
Mon -- 06:55 PM AST     Sunset
Mon -- 08:03 PM AST     0.51 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of Puerto Rico    EDIT

Wind Forecast for (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Puerto Rico,Virgin Islands
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.