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AMZ712 Coastal Waters Of Northern Puerto Rico Out 10 Nm- 1018 Am Ast Sat Apr 20 2024
Rest of today - Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Gusts up to 25 knots this afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas around 5 feet. Dominant period 10 seconds. Scattered showers.Tonight - Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas around 5 feet. Dominant period 10 seconds. Scattered showers.Sunday - East winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas around 5 feet. Dominant period 10 seconds. Scattered showers.Sunday night - East winds 10 to 15 knots. Gusts up to 25 knots in the evening. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas around 5 feet. Dominant period 6 seconds. Numerous showers.Monday - East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas around 5 feet. Dominant period 6 seconds, increasing to 10 seconds. Isolated Thunderstorms through the day. Numerous showers.Tuesday - East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet. Dominant period 10 seconds. Isolated Thunderstorms through the day. Numerous showers.Wednesday - East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet. Dominant period 8 seconds, increasing to 10 seconds. Numerous showers.

AMZ700 1018 Am Ast Sat Apr 20 2024
Synopsis for puerto rico and the uS. Virgin islands waters - . Gentle to moderate northeasterly wind flow will continue to prevail across the local waters through at least early the next workweek, becoming light to gentle from the east southeast on Tuesday. A small northeasterly swell will move across the atlantic waters through the weekend. However, seas will remain less than 5 feet for the most part.

FXCA62 TJSJ 200851 AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Juan PR 451 AM AST Sat Apr 20 2024

SYNOPSIS

Some improvement may be observed today. However, a wet and unstable weather pattern is expected to return by the end of the weekend and persist through the workweek.

SHORT TERM
Today through Monday...

Runoffs from previous rainfall caused Rio Grande de Manati in Manati, and Rio de la Plata in Dorado to reach flood stage once again. However, waters receded around 4 AM AST. Under a northeast flow, showers moved across north-central Puerto Rico and over Saint Croix, with rainfall accumulations up to 1 inch in Vega Baja. For western Puerto Rico, skies cleared out as a drier air mass moved over that region.

The most recent satellite-derived precipitable water value product shows a moisture gradient over the region. First, below normal moisture values are observed along western Puerto Rico and the Atlantic waters, but plenty of moisture lingers in the Caribbean in the vicinity of Saint Croix. In fact, the high resolution models show that showers will continue to stream across this region, so ponding of water on roadways is possible today. Shower activity will be possible, but not as much across Saint Thomas, Vieques and Culebra.

For Puerto Rico, the wind flow at the mid and upper levels is now zonal, as a jet stream passes just north of the region, and the upper level trough departs toward the east. Most of the moisture should remain east of the region today, but there is enough to trigger showers in the afternoon along the interior and southwestern Puerto Rico. The showers are not expected to be as widespread as the previous days, but since the soils are so saturated and rivers are running high, flooding and mudslides will remain possible in these areas.

The slight improvement in the weather conditions will not last long.
An area of moisture associated with the trough that affected the area earlier this week and another one approaching from the Lesser Antilles will combine to increase moisture above climatological levels on Sunday and Monday. First, showers will move from the east, affecting the Virgin Islands and eastern Puerto Rico during the day, and then additional convection will kick in in the afternoon across the interior and western Puerto Rico. Again, the likelihood of flooding, rapid river rises, and mudslides will be elevated.

Also on Monday, temperatures at 925 mb will be two standard deviation above normal, meaning that it should be hot too. It is possible that the cloud coverage may prevent temperatures for rising too much, but coastal areas experiencing enough sunshine could see heat indices above the 100 degree mark.

LONG TERM
Tuesday through Saturday...

A wet and unstable weather pattern is expected to return in the long- term forecast. A surface high pressure across the central Atlantic and a surface low over the western Atlantic will induce east- southeast winds across the CWA Consequently, this wind pattern will promote warmer temperatures over the islands and pull tropical moisture into the area. Precipitable water content is expected to remain within the range of 1.9 to 2.2 inches. These values exceed the 90th and 99th percentiles of the climatological normal, indicating well above-normal moisture levels for this time of year.

In terms of instability, an upper-level trough is expected to deepen throughout the week, inducing an inverted surface trough west of Puerto Rico. These features will gradually progress eastward during the week, sustaining unstable weather conditions capable of generating deep convective activity. The likelihood of convective activity will be highest during afternoon hours as high moisture content and instability combine with surface heating and local effects.

Soils are expected to remain somewhat saturated by Tuesday due to rains from previous days, with rivers still experiencing elevated streamflows. Consequently, the flood risk will remain elevated to significant through at least Friday, particularly during afternoon hours. Quick river rises, river flooding, and landslides are also possible, primarily across Puerto Rico. In the US Virgin Islands, minor flooding with brief periods of excessive runoff is possible each day of the week.



AVIATION
(06z) TAFS

Mainly VFR conditions expected. SHRA will stream across the Atlantic waters and passages, occasionally reaching TSJU and the USVI terminals. After 17Z, additional activity is expected in the vicinity of TJPS. All this activity may result in brief periods of reduced VIS and low ceilings. Mountain obscuration is expected for the western Cordillera Central. Winds are from the NE at 5-12 kts.

MARINE

Gentle to moderate northeasterly wind flow will continue to prevail across the local waters through at least early the next workweek, becoming light to gentle from the east southeast on Tuesday. A small northeasterly swell will move across the Atlantic waters through the weekend. However, seas will remain less than 5 feet for the most part.

BEACH FORECAST

Although there is no high rip current risk statement, life- threatening rip currents remain possible in the surf zone, especially along north-facing beaches of the local islands. Please remember to heed the advice of the local beach patrol and flag warning systems.

SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PR...None.
VI...None.
AM...None.

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Boca De Cangrejos
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Sat -- 01:12 AM AST     0.25 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:04 AM AST     Moonset
Sat -- 06:03 AM AST     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:25 AM AST     1.08 feet High Tide
Sat -- 01:31 PM AST     0.27 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:12 PM AST     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:42 PM AST     Sunset
Sat -- 07:47 PM AST     1.16 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Boca De Cangrejos, Isla Verde, San Juan, Puerto Rico, Tide feet

San Juan, La Puntilla, San Juan Bay, Puerto Rico, Tide feet

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