Sunday, August19, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Isabela, PR

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Sunrise 6:10AMSunset 6:53PM Sunday August 19, 2018 2:04 AM AST (06:04 UTC) Moonrise 1:50PMMoonset 12:34AM Illumination 53% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ742 Coastal Waters Of Northwestern Puerto Rico Out 10 Nm- 924 Pm Ast Sat Aug 18 2018
Rest of tonight..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Scattered showers through the night.
Sunday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Isolated Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Sunday night..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas up to 5 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Isolated showers.
Monday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Scattered showers through the day. Isolated Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Monday night..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas up to 5 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Isolated showers.
Tuesday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Isolated Thunderstorms, then isolated showers.
Wednesday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Isolated Thunderstorms, then isolated showers.
Thursday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Isolated Thunderstorms, then isolated showers.
AMZ700 924 Pm Ast Sat Aug 18 2018
Synopsis for puerto rico and the uS. Virgin islands waters... Surface high pressure across the western atlantic will continue to promote moderate easterly winds across the regional waters for the next several days. Although tranquil marine conditions are expected across the local waters tonight and early Sunday, conditions may deteriorate later on Sunday night as winds and seas increase across portions of the outer atlantic waters and Mona passage. The next tropical wave will move across the region on Sunday into Monday, enhancing shower and Thunderstorm activity across the local waters.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Isabela zona urbana, PR
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location: 18.5, -67.01     debug


Area Discussion for - San Juan, PR
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Fxca62 tjsj 190158 aaa
afdsju
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service san juan pr
958 pm ast Sat aug 18 2018

Update Several showers are still transiting the north coast of
puerto rico and dampening the northeast flank of EL yunque, but
most showers--even over water--have dissipated. Sounding for
19 00z came in with almost exactly the same precipitable water
value, being just one hundredth of an inch higher at 1.69 inches.

This is considerably more than the GFS was forecasting yesterday
for this time. Today the model is showing a spear of moisture
crossing through the northern u.S. Virgin islands from the east
overnight and entering northeast puerto rico early Sunday morning.

This will produce scattered to numerous showers on the eastern
flanks of EL yunque and over the waters southeast of puerto rico
and is also expected to produce at least a modicum of showers for
saint john and saint thomas, though amounts will be light. This
moisture then lifts north of puerto rico while another, larger,
area of moisture at 850 mb moves north into the forecast area over
the caribbean waters Sunday afternoon. This is the moisture
following the tropical wave that will move rapidly west across the
caribbean waters south of the forecast area on Sunday. This
moisture will also make showers likely in the caribbean waters and
the southeastern third of puerto rico Monday morning, but will
not arrive over puerto rico in time for Sunday afternoon
convection. Nevertheless, showers and thunderstorms are expected
Sunday afternoon in western puerto rico and west northwest of el
yunque in a streamer. Drier air at 700-500 mb should limit
convection over that had on Saturday when there were a few
locations with 4 to 5 inches of rainfall.

Traces of saharan dust may be seen Wednesday through Friday.

Aviation Vfr will prevail over the forecast area except for a
narrow spear of moisture moving east over the usvi arnd 19 06z and
into NE pr arnd 19 10z with mtn obscurations shra and LCL MVFR
conds. Shra tsra will dvlp aft 19 16z wnw of EL yunque and over
wnw and NW pr with MVFR ifr conds and mtns obscured till arnd
20 02z. Sfc winds less than 12 kt from the east with land breeze
influences, becoming 10 to 18 kt with hir gusts and sea breeze
influences aft 19 14z. MAX winds blo fl520 ese 20 kt at fl050 at
19 12z.

Marine Winds increase somewhat Sunday night such that mariners
will need to exercise caution for winds up to 20 kt and seas 4 to
6 feet in exposed waters. Otherwise small craft advisories are
not anticipated through 26 aug.

Prev discussion issued 438 pm ast Sat aug 18 2018
synopsis... Surface high pressure located over the western
atlantic continues to promote moderate easterly winds across the
region. A tropical wave will move across the area Sunday into
Monday, but given that most of the moisture will remain over
caribbean waters and the presence of an upper level high pressure
will limit its effects over the local islands. A more seasonal
pattern is expected to return on Tuesday as patches of drier air
along with occasional patches of low level moisture move over the
area.

Short term... Tonight through Monday...

although an upper level high pressure is moving into the local
area, the combination of low level moisture with local and
diurnal effects lead to the development of showers and
thunderstorms along the cordillera central, as well as portions of
the southwestern quadrant of puerto rico and the san juan
metropolitan area. Various flood advisories and special weather
statements were issued due to prolonged periods of moderate to
heavy rains, significant radar rainfall accumulation estimates,
gusty winds and lightning strikes. This activity will gradually
decrease during the evening hours as drier air invades the local
area. However, passing showers cannot be ruled out as limited low
level moisture embedded within this patch of drier air moves over
the area.

A tropical wave is expected to move across the local area on
Sunday into Monday, but model suggest that most of the moisture
will remain over caribbean waters. At the same time, an upper
level high pressure will place itself right over the local
islands. Although the tropical wave will introduce enough
moisture, the lack of upper level instability and vertical
forcing may limit the chance of thunderstorms. Nevertheless,
ponding of water in roadways and low lying areas, reduced
visibility and hazardous driving conditions, as well as urban and
small stream flooding and gusty winds can be expected with this
activity.

With the departure of the tropical wave, patches of a somewhat
drier air along the occasional patch of low level moisture will
move across the region throughout the forecast period. This will
result in a more seasonal pattern with passing showers moving over
windward areas of the local islands during the overnight and
early morning hours, followed by limited afternoon convection
across the portions of the interior and western puerto rico.

Long term... Tuesday through Saturday...

from previous discussion...

model guidance suggests that the trailing edge of the
aforementioned tropical wave could persist over the region through
at least Tuesday morning. However, the upper level forcing should
be marginal through this period. By midweek, GFS and ecmwf
suggests that the ridge aloft should erodes providing better
chance for vertical development during the afternoon hours. During
that time, another tropical wave could reach the islands by
Wednesday or Thursday. The confidence about the timing and impacts
that this wave could produce is low due to some discrepancy
amongst the global models. After the passage of this feature,
model guidance are suggesting the arrival of dry air and saharan
dust particulates over the local area around Thursday. A seasonal
weather pattern should prevail through the rest of the week with
the typical passing showers across the u.S. Virgin islands and the
eastern half of puerto rico during the overnight and morning
hours followed by afternoon convection across the western sections
of pr.

Aviation... MVFRVFR conds are occurring over the local terminal
sites. Mvrf conditions are occurring where shra tsra are located
mainly over the tjbq, tjmz and the western areas of puerto rico.

Elsewhere, shra over the eastern areas of puerto rico. Winds out of
the east at 10 to 15 kts with higher gusts within shra tsra. Upper
level winds turn to the south at 32 kft to 42 kft with winds of 15
to 20 kts. Shra tsra will decrease across the area by 18 22z with
decreasing winds.

Marine... Tranquil marine conditions with seas up to 5 feet and
east winds up to 15 knots are expected today and early Sunday,
but may slightly deteriorate late Sunday evening across the outer
atlantic waters and mona passage due to seas up to 6 feet and
east winds up to 20 knots. Thus, requiring that small craft
operators exercise caution. There is a moderate risk of rip
currents for several beaches of puerto rico and the u.S. Virgin
islands.

Preliminary point temps pops
Sju 77 90 78 89 40 40 40 30
stt 78 89 78 89 40 40 30 30

Sju watches warnings advisories
Pr... None.

Vi... None.

Am... None.

Short term... Ws
long term... .Icp


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PTRP4 16 mi19 min E 4.1 G 5.1 76°F
AROP4 - 9757809 - Arecibo, PR 16 mi40 min SE 5.1 G 5.1
41115 - Rincon, Puerto Rico (181) 17 mi94 min 84°F1 ft
MGIP4 - 9759110 - Magueyes Islands, PR 37 mi40 min SE 1 G 1.9 76°F 84°F1015.6 hPa
SJNP4 - 9755371 - San Juan, PR 47 mi46 min ESE 8 G 9.9 81°F 85°F1016.2 hPa
41053 - San Juan, PR 48 mi34 min ESE 9.7 G 12 82°F 1015.2 hPa

Wind History for Arecibo, PR
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure

Wind History from JBQ (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE7E6E5E5----------N3E6E10E11E11E11E13E11E15E12
G20
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1 day ago------------------SE3E6E7E8E13E17E17E15
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2 days agoSE6E6--------------SE3E7E12
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Tide / Current Tables for Aguadilla, Crashboat Beach, Puerto Rico
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Aguadilla
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Sun -- 12:35 AM AST     Moonset
Sun -- 02:02 AM AST     0.93 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:11 AM AST     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:32 AM AST     -0.01 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 01:49 PM AST     Moonrise
Sun -- 03:21 PM AST     1.27 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:52 PM AST     Sunset
Sun -- 09:47 PM AST     0.36 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.70.90.90.90.70.50.30.1000.10.40.60.91.21.31.21.10.90.70.50.40.40.4

Tide / Current Tables for Mayaguez, Puerto Rico
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Mayaguez
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:35 AM AST     Moonset
Sun -- 02:17 AM AST     1.09 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:11 AM AST     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:50 AM AST     0.13 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 01:49 PM AST     Moonrise
Sun -- 03:55 PM AST     1.59 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:52 PM AST     Sunset
Sun -- 10:33 PM AST     0.65 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.911.11.110.80.50.30.20.10.20.40.71.11.31.51.61.51.41.10.90.80.70.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Puerto Rico    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Puerto Rico,Virgin Islands
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.