Saturday, October21, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Nanawale Estates, HI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:16AMSunset 5:53PM Saturday October 21, 2017 5:35 AM HST (15:35 UTC) Moonrise 7:56AMMoonset 7:37PM Illumination 2% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PHZ122 Big Island Windward Waters- 342 Am Hst Sat Oct 21 2017
Today..Northeast winds 15 knots. Wind waves 5 feet. North swell 5 feet. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon.
Tonight..East winds 15 knots. Wind waves 5 feet. North swell 4 feet. Isolated showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight.
Sunday..Southeast winds 10 knots. Wind waves 4 feet. Northwest swell 4 feet. Haze. Scattered showers.
Sunday night..Southeast winds 15 knots. Wind waves 5 feet. Northwest swell 6 feet. Haze. Showers likely.
Monday..Southeast winds 15 knots. Wind waves 6 feet. Northwest swell 7 feet. Haze. Scattered showers.
Monday night..South winds to 25 knots. Wind waves 8 feet. Northwest swell 6 feet. SWell southwest 3 feet. Haze. Heavy showers likely.
Tuesday..South winds to 25 knots easing to 10 knots in the afternoon and evening, then veering west after midnight. Wind waves 5 to 6 feet. Northwest swell 6 to 8 feet and south 3 feet. Haze. Heavy showers likely.
Wednesday..North winds 10 knots. Wind waves 4 feet. Northwest swell 8 to 10 feet and south 3 feet. Scattered showers.
PHZ100 342 Am Hst Sat Oct 21 2017
Synopsis for hawaiian coastal waters.. A surface ridge about 600 nm north of the area will move steadily south, and will be over the islands on Sunday. A cold front will approach from the northwest on Monday, and will move southeast over the coastal waters Monday night through Tuesday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Nanawale Estates, HI
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location: 19.49, -154.81     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxhw60 phfo 211356
afdhfo
area forecast discussion
national weather service honolulu hi
356 am hst Sat oct 21 2017

Synopsis
A change in the weather pattern is in the works. The breezy
trade winds will be giving way to light and variable winds on
Sunday. Then, a moist southerly wind flow takes over on Monday,
ahead of an approaching cold front that is forecast to moved
down the island chain between Monday evening and Wednesday. A
drier and cooler northerly wind flow will settle over the islands
lasting for a few days.

Discussion
The weakening of the trades has begun, and will continue through
today. Winds will still be breezy in some spot, especially around
the big island and maui, but not as strong and gusty as in the
past few days. The down trend continues through tonight, becoming
light and variable on Sunday.

A front approaching the islands from the northwest is responsible
for the change in the weather. The winds will turn southerly
Sunday night and gain strength on Monday and Monday night,
especially for the area west of maui. It may be windy enough to
warrant a wind advisory for at least kauai on Monday. We will see
how this transpire. It will be monitored closely as the event
nears. The breezy southerly winds is part of the upper level
trough aiding the surface front.

The front reaches kauai early Monday evening, then advances
eastward to maui county toward midnight and early Tuesday morning.

The front reaches the big island after daybreak Tuesday and exit
the big island early Wednesday morning, as per GFS solution. The
ecmwf is a bit slower in clearing the big island, which does not
take place until Wednesday afternoon. The front stalls just east
of the big island, where it will linger through at least Thursday.

In its wake, a drier and cooler air mass settles over the area
under a light to moderate northeast wind flow.

The unsettled weather will be spreading across the area from the
east and south between Sunday afternoon and Monday, beginning with
the big island. Models are in good agreement with a low level
trough and its associated showers reaching the big island Sunday
afternoon. As the upper trough digs down, it will draw additional
moisture from the tropics. The ECMWF and GFS differs on where this
moisture will go. The ec points to kauai and oahu, while the gfs
has it over maui county. Believe this is something new with the
ec, where earlier runs had the moisture over maui county. What we
have in the grids are that of the GFS solution, that is the core
of heavy weather to occur over maui county and the big island.

Although most of the upper level dynamics will ride north of the
islands, there is an outside chance of a thunderstorm. Locally
heavy showers are being noted especially for maui county and the
big island. More reinforcement and refinement of the forecast is
forthcoming, including the discussion of a flash flood watch for
part of the island chain.

In the mean time, the dry sloth over molokai, has slid over to
oahu. The northeast to southwest oriented band of clouds and
showers has edged to kauai, but is now showing signs of breaking
up. If this continues, the forecast will need to be updated.

Spotty trade showers will continue to affect the windward areas
of the big island, maui, and molokai this morning. The weather
looks drier overall compared to the past few days.

The trades have weaken so much that the wind advisory is now
canceled.

Aviation
Strong and gusty trade winds will continue to support airmet
tango through the day for low level turbulence downwind of the
mountains on all islands. In addition, airmet tango is also in
effect for upper levels over the islands due to speed sheer
between fl260 and fl340.

Vfr will predominate, as usual. Brief, to occasionally tempo,
MVFR in passing trade showers will mainly affect windward and
mauka sections today over all isles.

Marine
The recent long-lived run of strong trade winds will be soon ending
as a rapidly developing storm-force low replaces the high to the
n of the islands on Sunday. The high will support locally strong
trade winds today, but winds are expected to become light by
Sunday as the high moves E and its associated surface ridge moves
over the area. The low will send a front toward the islands from
the NW early next week, which will turn winds to a southerly
direction. The front is expected to move through the island chain
from Monday night through Tuesday, bringing varying winds and
weather.

With winds gradually easing, the existing small craft advisory
(sca) has been trimmed to include only those zones where winds are
most accelerated by island terrain. Winds and seas will fall below
criteria in all areas by tonight. The high surf advisory for e
facing shores is also cancelled this morning as seas are on a
downward trend at the windward buoys.

A SCA is likely for waters west of molokai for strengthening
southerly winds on Monday and Monday night.

Although short-period wind waves will be easing, building nnw and
s swells Sunday and Monday are expected to keep combined seas
elevated, but below the SCA criteria of 10 feet. A larger,
shorter-period nnw swell building on Tuesday will likely lead to
sca in all zones as seas exceed 10 feet once again. The first nnw
swell will produce surf near the advisory threshold along exposed
n facing shores, and the second swell is expected to produce high
surf along N facing shores. Advisory-level surf along S facing
shores is possible Sunday and Monday, with the swell generated by
a distant low in the S pacific. A small long-period W swell is
possible next week, generated by large and slow-moving super
typhoon lan in the W pacific. An even larger long-period NW swell
is possible late in the week as lan becomes extratropical in the
nw pacific. SE swell is also possible over the next several days.

The recently updated oahu surf discussion (srdhfo) has details on
the swell sources affecting the islands.

Hfo watches warnings advisories
Small craft advisory until 6 pm hst this evening for maalaea bay,
pailolo and alenuihaha channels, waters south of the big island.

Lau kinel birchard


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ILOH1 - 1617760 - Hilo, HI 21 mi48 min S 4.1 G 5.1 70°F 80°F1015.4 hPa
51206 22 mi39 min 79°F9 ft

Wind History for Hilo, Hilo Bay, Kuhio Bay, HI
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G19

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hilo, Hilo International Airport, HI21 mi43 minSW 610.00 miA Few Clouds69°F66°F93%1015.5 hPa

Wind History from HTO (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW6N6NW12NW11N8N9E9SW3NW9N8N7N7
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1 day agoW6NW6NE7N8NE16
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G19

Tide / Current Tables for Hilo, Hilo Bay, Kunio Bay, Hawaii Island, Hawaii
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Hilo
Click for Map
Sat -- 04:02 AM HST     2.66 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:17 AM HST     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:57 AM HST     Moonrise
Sat -- 10:16 AM HST     0.64 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:35 PM HST     1.87 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:52 PM HST     Sunset
Sat -- 07:37 PM HST     Moonset
Sat -- 09:45 PM HST     0.01 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.91.52.12.52.72.52.21.71.20.80.60.70.91.31.61.81.91.71.30.80.40.100.2

Tide / Current Tables for Honuapo, Hawaii Island, Hawaii
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Honuapo
Click for Map
Sat -- 04:40 AM HST     2.69 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:18 AM HST     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:58 AM HST     Moonrise
Sat -- 10:49 AM HST     0.64 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:13 PM HST     1.89 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:54 PM HST     Sunset
Sat -- 07:40 PM HST     Moonset
Sat -- 10:18 PM HST     0.01 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.61.21.82.32.62.72.421.510.70.60.81.11.41.71.91.81.51.10.60.200.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
cpac_satellite

GOES Local Image of Hawaii    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station South Shore, HI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.