Wednesday, March29, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Kahaluu-Keauhou, HI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:14AMSunset 6:35PM Wednesday March 29, 2017 7:09 AM HST (17:09 UTC) Moonrise 7:47AMMoonset 8:39PM Illumination 5% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PHZ123 Big Island Leeward Waters- 338 Am Hst Wed Mar 29 2017
Today..Northwest winds 10 kt west of the big island...east 20 kt near south point. Wind waves 7 ft. Northwest swell 5 ft. Haze in the afternoon. Isolated showers in the afternoon.
Tonight..Winds variable less than 10 kt west of the big island...east 20 kt near south point. Wind waves 8 ft. Northwest swell 5 ft. Haze through the night. Isolated showers through the night.
Thursday..Winds variable less than 10 kt west of the big island...east 20 kt near south point. Wind waves 8 ft. Northwest swell 4 ft. Haze through the day. Isolated showers through the day.
Thursday night..Winds variable less than 10 kt west of the big island...east 20 kt near south point. Wind waves 8 ft. Northwest swell 4 ft. Isolated showers in the evening. Haze through the night.
Friday..Winds variable less than 10 kt west of the big island... East 20 kt near south point. Wind waves 7 ft. Northwest swell 6 ft increasing to 8 ft in the afternoon. Haze. Isolated showers.
Friday night..Winds variable less than 10 kt west of the big island...east to 25 kt near south point. Wind waves 8 ft. Northwest swell 9 ft. Haze. Isolated showers.
Saturday..West of the big island...northwest winds 10 kt veering northeast after midnight. NEar south point...east winds to 25 kt. Wind waves 9 ft. West swell 6 to 8 ft. Haze. Isolated showers.
Sunday..West of the big island...northwest winds 10 kt veering northeast. NEar south point...east winds to 25 kt. Wind waves 10 ft. Northwest swell 4 to 6 ft. Haze. Scattered showers.
PHZ100 338 Am Hst Wed Mar 29 2017
Synopsis for hawaiian coastal waters.. A ridge of high pressure north of the marine areas will weaken as a cold front approaches and stalls north and northwest of the area Thursday through Friday. High pressure will build north of the state over the weekend behind this front.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Kahaluu-Keauhou, HI
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location: 19.61, -155.97     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxhw60 phfo 291400
afdhfo
area forecast discussion
national weather service honolulu hi
400 am hst Wed mar 29 2017

Synopsis
A trade wind regime will persist through the upcoming weekend and
into the early part of next week as a ridge of high pressure
remains north of the islands. Showers embedded in the trade wind
flow will favor the windward and mountain. The frequency of these
showers will higher during the nights and mornings. The trades
will turn windy over the weekend and lasting through early next
week.

Discussion
A loose area of clouds and showers embedded in a mainly moderate
trade wind flow have been affecting mainly windward maui and big
island this early Wednesday morning. Otherwise, it has been a
rather dry evening for the remaining islands. But as more shower
bearing clouds roll in from the east, the showers will eventually
reach kauai by this evening. The clouds and showers are part of a
much larger area of scattered to broken low clouds that stretched
beyond a thousand miles east of the big island. It will take
until Friday morning for this batch of moisture to finally blow
through.

In addition to the trade showers, a tinge of weakness of the
slightly south of east wind flow over the western half of the
island chain will favor some afternoon clouds and a few showers
for the lee and interior areas of the smaller islands. We
anticipate a repeat of this pattern for both Thursday and Friday
afternoons.

On Friday night, the surface high feeding the islands with the
gentle trades will be reinforced by another surface high. This
will take place some 1200 miles nne of the islands resulting in a
strong 1034 mb high. This translate in a boost in the trades to
moderate to strong speeds. At this time, there is a chance of a
wind advisory for the typically windy areas of places like the
waimea saddle on the big island and or lanai over the weekend.

This boost in the trades will be accompanied by an uptick in the
frequency of trade showers.

The weather pattern takes a change north of the islands Sunday
into Monday where the high is shoved off far to the east by a
broad surface low. The extension of the surface ridge from the
high will be suppressed southward closer to the islands which
will then lead to a weaker trade wind flow by Wednesday. And
with the weaker trades, there will be fewer trade showers.

Aviation
With a broad surface high far northeast of the state, trade winds
will be light to moderate. Low clouds, and any accompanying
showers, moving along on the trades will mainly affect windward
and mauka sections on the individual isles, but conditions overall
will remainVFR.

There are no airmets currently in effect.

Marine
The latest surface analysis showed a 974 mb storm-force low
centered around 1500 nm northwest of kauai near the date line
(around 40n) and a ridge axis extending westward from a 1030 mb
high centered off the coast of california to just north of the
islands. A very strong pressure gradient was depicted south of
this low northwest of the state, that was supported by an ascat
pass earlier where a large area of west-northwest storm-force
winds (focused within the 290 to 310 directional band relative to
the islands) were shown out to around 500 nm south-southwest from
the low to near 30n (leading edge of the fetch was around 1200 nm
northwest of the islands). According to the latest altimeter
passes, seas associated with this system continue to range from 30
to 36 ft over the heart of the fetch region focused toward the
islands, which has been persistent for the past several passes
over the past 24 hrs. Despite some small differences between
solutions, the latest model guidance remains in decent agreement
with these latest satellite trends and shows this system
continuing on an east-northeast track from the date line early
this morning around 40n to the gulf of alaska through the second
half of the week.

A large west-northwest swell (290-310 deg) associated with this
system discussed above will result across the region, that should
reach the islands Thursday night, peak through the day Friday and
Friday night, then slowly ease over the weekend. Warning-level
surf and advisory-level seas will be expected Thursday night into
the weekend before trending down over exposed waters and beaches.

For timing, the ecmwf-wave, gfs-wavewatch iii and ensemble mean
solutions all remain in close agreement and depict seas ramping up
quickly around midnight Thursday night to small craft advisory
levels, peaking within the 10 to 14 ft range Friday, then slowly
easing through the weekend. A few of the ensemble solutions are
coming in slightly higher (by a couple of feet) at the northwest
buoys and converge at a peak near 15 ft Thursday night. If the
swell ends up coming in larger than predicted or later, warning-
level surf could continue into Saturday before dropping to
advisory levels along exposed north and west facing shores. Surf
should dip below advisory levels Sunday.

Local winds and seas will likely remain below advisory levels
through Friday as the ridge of high pressure north of the state
slightly weakens in response to a cold front that is forecast to
approach the region later in the week, then stall and weaken north
and northwest of the area into the upcoming weekend. Advisory-
level trade winds will return across portions of the waters over
the weekend as high pressure builds north of the state behind this
front.

Prior to the arrival of the large swell expected Thursday night
through the weekend, surf along north and west facing shores will
hold at levels below the advisory criteria through Thursday due
to a lingering northwest swell from earlier this week.

Surf along east facing shores will remain small and choppy through
the week due to moderate to fresh onshore winds persisting. Surf
will begin to build over the weekend as the winds strengthen locally
and upstream of the islands and may near or reach advisory levels
along east facing shores by the end of the weekend and into early
next week.

A slight increase in surf along south facing shores will be possible
Thursday through Saturday due to a long-period swell (190 deg)
associated with recent activity across the southern pacific.

In addition to this southerly swell, wrap from the previously
discussed large west-northwest swell will add to the mix by Friday
at select spots along exposed southern facing beaches.

Hfo watches/warnings/advisories
None.

Discussion... Lau
aviation... Kinel
marine... Gibbs


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KWHH1 30 mi51 min NE 5.1 G 5.1 78°F1017.8 hPa
ILOH1 - 1617760 - Hilo, HI 49 mi51 min S 2.9 G 5.1 69°F 75°F1019.1 hPa
KLIH1 - 1615680 - Kahului Bay, Maui, HI 93 mi51 min NNW 7 G 8.9
51203 - Kaumalapau, HI (146) 98 mi54 min 78°F4 ft

Wind History for Kawaihae, HI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Kailua / Kona, Keahole Airport, HI3 mi16 minE 410.00 miFair73°F63°F71%1017.9 hPa

Wind History from HKO (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE3NW5W7W8W8W9W11SW10SW11W11W10W9W9W6CalmNE3SE6E6SE5CalmNE3E7E4E4
1 day agoSE6S7S8W7W10W8W11W11W10W9W7W6SW4SE8SE11SE10SE10SE10SE9E7E5E4NE6NE5
2 days agoCalmSE4SW6SW6SW8SW10SW9SW9SW7S8SW9SW8S4--SE3CalmE3CalmE3E4SE5SE7S4SE7

Tide / Current Tables for Kailua Kona, Big Island, Hawaii
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Kailua Kona
Click for Map
Wed -- 04:33 AM HST     1.49 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:19 AM HST     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:46 AM HST     Moonrise
Wed -- 10:43 AM HST     -0.16 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:17 PM HST     1.87 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:37 PM HST     Sunset
Wed -- 08:39 PM HST     Moonset
Wed -- 11:41 PM HST     0.15 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.20.50.91.31.51.51.30.90.50.1-0.1-0.100.40.91.31.71.91.81.61.20.80.40.2

Tide / Current Tables for Kawaihae, Big Island, Hawaii
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Kawaihae
Click for Map
Wed -- 04:58 AM HST     1.80 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:19 AM HST     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:45 AM HST     Moonrise
Wed -- 11:05 AM HST     -0.15 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:37 PM HST     2.19 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:36 PM HST     Sunset
Wed -- 08:39 PM HST     Moonset
Wed -- 11:58 PM HST     0.15 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.20.50.91.41.71.81.71.30.90.40-0.1-00.30.81.41.92.12.221.510.60.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
cpac_satellite

GOES Local Image of Hawaii    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Kohala, HI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.