Tuesday, November20, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Laupahoehoe, HI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:31AMSunset 5:41PM Tuesday November 20, 2018 4:07 AM HST (14:07 UTC) Moonrise 4:10PMMoonset 4:05AM Illumination 94% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 12 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PHZ122 Big Island Windward Waters- 343 Am Hst Tue Nov 20 2018
.small craft advisory in effect through Wednesday afternoon...
Today..Northeast winds to 25 knots. Wind waves 5 feet. Northwest swell 5 feet. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon.
Tonight..Northeast winds to 25 knots. Wind waves 7 feet. Northwest swell 5 feet. Scattered showers.
Wednesday..Northeast winds to 25 knots. Wind waves 7 feet. Northwest swell 5 feet. Scattered showers.
Wednesday night..East winds to 25 knots. Wind waves 8 feet. North swell 4 feet. Scattered showers in the evening, then showers likely after midnight.
Thursday..East winds 20 knots. Wind waves 9 feet. North swell 4 feet. Showers likely in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon.
Thursday night..East winds 20 knots. Wind waves 8 feet. North swell 3 feet. Scattered showers in the evening, then showers likely after midnight.
Friday..East winds 20 knots. Wind waves 7 feet. North swell 3 feet. Scattered showers.
Saturday..East winds 15 knots. Wind waves 6 feet. Northwest swell 3 to 4 feet. Scattered showers.
PHZ100 343 Am Hst Tue Nov 20 2018
Synopsis for hawaiian coastal waters.. High pressure will strengthen north of the area through midweek, then shift east and weaken as a front passes to the north Thursday night through Friday night.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Laupahoehoe, HI
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location: 20.8, -154.34     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxhw60 phfo 201401
afdhfo
area forecast discussion
national weather service honolulu hi
400 am hst Tue nov 20 2018

Synopsis
Strong high pressure passing north of the islands will bring
increasing trade winds today that will be locally strong tonight and
Wednesday. Winds will gradually weaken and shift to the southeast on
Thursday before becoming light on Friday, with winds remaining light
over the weekend. Brief showers will favor windward areas through
Wednesday, with a few showers spreading leeward with the strong
trade winds. An increase in moisture is expected Wednesday night and
Thursday, and this moisture may linger into the weekend, fueling
increased showers.

Discussion
A 1034 mb surface high centered about 1100 miles N of the islands is
supplying breezy trade winds this morning. Latest satellite imagery
shows scattered to broken low clouds approaching most islands from
the ene, with few low clouds immediately upstream of oahu. Radar
shows small showers randomly scattered over windward waters, with
just a few showers over leeward waters. Radar vad wind profiles
shows the boundary layer extends up to around 8000 feet, with early
morning soundings indicating a strong subsidence inversion based
near 7000 feet.

The main weather highlight over the next 24 hours or so will be
increasing trade winds as the high to the N moves se. Winds are
expected to increase to the point that a wind advisory will likely
be required for portions (if not all) of the islands, especially
where winds accelerate downslope. With winds expected to be at their
peak tonight and Wednesday, and with some uncertainty as to how
strong winds will actually get due to the high's rapid eastward
movement, have decided to not issue a wind advisory with this
forecast package.

Winds are not expected to remain strong for an extended period as
the high moves quickly E while gradually weakening later in the
week. A front approaching from the NW will weaken the ridge on
Thursday, causing winds to veer to the SE while gradually weakening.

As the front passes N of the islands on Friday, winds are expected
to become light and variable. Thereafter, there remains some
divergence in model solutions, with GFS indicating light winds will
persist into next week while ECMWF guidance depicts a return of
trade winds. The existing forecast indicates a blend of these
solutions, with winds remaining on the lighter side.

The trade winds will deliver randomly spaced showery and stable low
clouds to the islands through Wednesday, with showers most active
during nights and mornings. While showers will focus over windward
areas, the strong trades will send a few leeward on the smaller
islands. Wednesday night and Thursday, moisture associated with a
dissipated frontal boundary (seen along 26n-27n in latest satellite
images) is expected to arrive over the islands from the ne, likely
fueling an increase in showers, again primarily windward. This
increased moisture may linger near the islands into the weekend,
helping to fuel increased showers as winds weaken. Forecasting the
timing and location of showers at that time is uncertain due to the
(potential for) light winds, and the weekend forecast continues
to have reduced confidence.

Aviation
A strong high pressure system in the central pacific will
maintaining breezy to locally strong trade winds across the hawaiian
islands through Wednesday. Expect isolated to scattered showers
favoring windward and mountain areas for the next few days.

Strong trade winds will continue to cause low level mountain wave
turbulence over and immediately south through west of mountains on
all islands below 080 through Wednesday. Airmet tango remains in
effect for moderate mountain wave turbulence over and immediately
south through west of all islands, and surface winds greater than 30
kts over wind favored waters and channels. No other airmet's in
effect or expected.

Marine
Strong trades will continue across the hawaiian waters through
Wednesday due to strong high pressure positioned north of the state.

Gales can't be ruled out across the alenuihaha channel and waters
south of the big island tonight through Wednesday. Seas will respond
and build to the advisory level (10 ft) over the exposed waters. A
gale watch is now in effect for the alenuihaha channel and waters
south of the big island beginning tonight. Elsewhere, a small craft
advisory is in effect.

Winds and seas will quickly trend back down through the second half
of the week and into the upcoming weekend as the area of high
pressure weakens and shifts eastward in response to a cold front
passing to the north. Confidence begins to lower through the second
half of the weekend into next week as the pattern shifts across the
northern pacific to a more progressive setup. The GFS solution
indicates the ridge axis will remain overhead locally, which would
keep more of a light and variable pattern in place. The ecmwf,
however, shows this ridge remaining positioned farther north, which
would favor light to moderate trades holding.

A reinforcement out of the northwest has filled in at the nearshore
pacioos buoys overnight and is remaining in line with guidance.

Expect this source to peak today, then fade through midweek. Surf
should remain well below the advisory levels along north and west
facing shores as it peaks. A gradual downward trend is expected
through the second half of the week.

For the extended, guidance is reflecting a large and broad gale- to
storm-force low setting up across the far northwest pacific in
response to the aforementioned pattern shift Thursday night through
the weekend. Seas are forecast to climb into the 40-50 ft range
within the associated fetch region focused at the islands within the
300-320 directional band. Although there remains some noticeable
differences between the various solutions as this feature evolves
through this time, all depict the first significant northwest swell
reaching the islands Sunday night through early next week.

Surf will likely exceed warning levels Monday. Specifics will come
later in the week as this scenario evolves and confidence increases.

Surf along east facing shores will near advisory levels Wednesday
through Thursday due to strong trades expected locally and just
upstream from the state. Surf should slightly lower Friday into the
weekend as the trades weaken.

Small surf will continue along south facing shores with mainly
background southern pacific pulses moving through.

Hfo watches warnings advisories
Gale watch from this evening through Wednesday afternoon for
alenuihaha channel-big island leeward waters-big island southeast
waters.

Small craft advisory until 6 pm hst this evening for alenuihaha
channel-big island leeward waters-big island southeast waters.

Small craft advisory until 5 pm hst Wednesday for kauai northwest
waters-kauai windward waters-kauai leeward waters-kauai channel-oahu
windward waters-oahu leeward waters-kaiwi channel-maui county
windward waters-maui county leeward waters-maalaea bay-pailolo
channel-big island windward waters.

Discussion... Birchard
aviation... Bohlin
marine... Gibbs


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ILOH1 - 1617760 - Hilo, HI 83 mi56 min WSW 6 G 7 69°F 79°F1016.7 hPa

Wind History for Hilo, Hilo Bay, Kuhio Bay, HI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hilo, Hilo International Airport, HI84 mi75 minW 66.00 miLight Rain70°F64°F84%1017.1 hPa

Wind History from HTO (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW5NW6SW4W7SW44NE9NE9NE12NE13NE7NE7NW7NW6NE4NE5NE6NE53CalmW5SW5W6SW6
1 day agoNE11NE8NE10NE6W6W5N4N8NE6N7N6NE6NE7NE5N5N6NW5NW4SW3W5CalmW3W4W4
2 days agoSW4CalmW5SW5SW4W6NW7NW3NW3NE9NE7NE7NE10NE8NE10NE8N4N5W5E11E12NE10S3W4

Tide / Current Tables for Hilo, Hilo Bay, Kunio Bay, Hawaii Island, Hawaii
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Hana, Maui Island, Hawaii
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Hana
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:12 AM HST     2.36 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:11 AM HST     Moonset
Tue -- 06:37 AM HST     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:17 AM HST     0.50 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 12:40 PM HST     1.81 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:17 PM HST     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:41 PM HST     Sunset
Tue -- 06:39 PM HST     -0.04 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.22.42.321.510.70.50.60.81.21.51.81.81.61.20.80.30-00.20.61.11.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_P
GOES Local Image of Hawaii    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Kohala, HI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.