Tuesday, March28, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Guadalupe-Guerra, TX

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:55AMSunset 7:17PM Tuesday March 28, 2017 3:38 PM CST (21:38 UTC) Moonrise 6:31AMMoonset 7:08PM Illumination 2% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Guadalupe-Guerra, TX
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location: 20.87, -105.44     debug


Area Discussion for - Brownsville, TX
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Fxus64 kbro 282031
afdbro
area forecast discussion
national weather service brownsville tx
331 pm cdt Tue mar 28 2017
.Short term (tonight through Wednesday night): closed 500-mb low
pressure and a surface low-pressure system still expected to move in
tandem out of the desert southwest and across northern texas during
the forecast period. An initial weak cold front extending southward
from the surface low-pressure system will move from west-to-east
into deep south texas and the rio grande valley during the pre-dawn
hours of Wednesday before becoming stalling out near the lower texas
coast Wednesday afternoon. 12z runs of NAM & GFS in good
agreement that the only real precip threat with this initial front
is across the northern tier of counties between about 09-15z
where isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible. Drier air
sweeps through in the wake of this boundary, making the temp
forecast for Wednesday a bit difficult. Duration of
westerly/downslope wind component at low levels limited in
duration. Blended latest met/mav guidance which seemed fairly
realistic. This had the effect of backing off high temps a couple
of degrees in the rgv, though it will still be seasonally hot,
with low-mid 90s pretty much everywhere.

Onshore flow returns fairly quickly Wednesday evening, pumping up
dewpoints back into the 60-70f range for the SE two-thirds or so of
the cwa. With the main upper-level dynamics swinging through north-
central tx and the approach of secondary cold front, another short
window for precip/thunder exists between midnight and around sunrise
Thursday. GFS much more robust with the precip chances than nam
at this point, so some uncertainty remains. SPC has placed the
area in a marginal risk for severe weather. This is a
possibility, especially if a momentum-driven squall line reaches
the northern counties. Prog soundings indicate favorable shear and
instability profiles, but overall moisture depth is shallow and a
significant cap remains. Given all this, went with 20-30% pop's
for 06-12z Thursday with isolated thunder mention but downplaying
the severe threat for now.

.Long term (Thursday through Tuesday): the forecast period
begins with a weak cold front moving across the lower texas coast
Thursday morning. Some lingering showers and thunderstorms will be
possible Thursday morning before subsidence increases across deep
south texas as a 500mb trough axis moves east over the state
Thursday into Thursday night. Weak zonal flow aloft will continue
to provide subsidence across the region ahead of the next mid-
level storm system approaching from the west. Moisture will begin
to increase across portions of the area Saturday as the next 500mb
low/trough moves over new mexico Saturday and Saturday night. The
best opportunity for showers and thunderstorms will be Saturday
night into Sunday with rain chances ending by Sunday evening. The
mid-level low/trough axis moves over the lone star state Sunday
night into Monday.

.Marine:
now through Wednesday night: currently missing data from both
buoy 42020 and tabs-k, but with tight pressure gradient in place,
winds will remain hazardous across all of the lower texas coastal
waters (including the laguna madre) through the night. Small craft
advisory for winds is in effect for the laguna through 8am
Wednesday. Strong winds over the gulf waters through tomorrow
morning will build seas to 7-9 feet, then slowly subside into the
evening with a SCA in effect through 7pm Wednesday. Winds decrease
to more light-moderate speeds Wednesday night as the pressure
gradient weakens in advance of a frontal boundary. Scec for seas
likely to persist at least for the outer gulf waters, however,
with a threat of thunderstorms as well.

Thursday through Saturday night... A weak cold front moves
offshore the lower texas coast Thursday morning. Winds will shift
to the northwest and increase in the wake of the front and small
craft advisories will likely be needed for the gulf waters
Thursday. Moderate to strong northwest winds Thursday will
diminish Thursday night and turn to the northeast. Southeast and
south winds will develop Friday as surface high pressure across
the western gulf of mexico moves eastward. The pressure gradient
is expected to increase along the lower texas coast Saturday with
low pressure strengthening across west texas. Moderate to strong
southeast will prevail across the coastal waters Saturday and
small craft advisories may be needed for the laguna madre and
offshore waters.

Preliminary point temps/pops
Bayview/port isabel 75 88 67 85 / 0 10 20 20
brownsville 74 92 66 88 / 0 10 20 20
harlingen 74 93 65 88 / 10 10 20 10
mcallen 73 97 66 89 / 10 10 30 10
rio grande city 71 96 63 90 / 0 0 30 10
south padre island 74 82 67 80 / 10 10 20 30

Bro watches/warnings/advisories
Tx... None.

Gm... Small craft advisory for winds until 8 am cdt Wednesday for
gmz130-132-135.

Small craft advisory until 7 pm cdt Wednesday for gmz150-155-170-
175.

This product is also available on the web at:
http://weather.Gov/rgv
short term... 53
long term... 63
graphicast/upper air... 62


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of SouthCentralPlains    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Brownsville, TX (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Brownsville, TX
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.