Friday, September21, 2018

Marine Weather and Tides
Guadalupe-Guerra, TX

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9/17/2018 XTide broke when 1and1 "upgraded" my server. It has been esculated. I am sorry for the problem.

Sunrise 7:49AMSunset 7:59PM Friday September 21, 2018 10:22 AM CDT (15:22 UTC) Moonrise 4:08PMMoonset 2:52AM Illumination 89% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 12 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Guadalupe-Guerra, TX
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location: 20.87, -105.44     debug

Area Discussion for - Brownsville, TX
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Fxus64 kbro 211121 aaa
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service brownsville tx
621 am cdt Fri sep 21 2018

Discussion Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

Aviation Vfr conditions prevail today with just an increase of
mid and higher levels clouds. Any convection will be isolated at
best along the sea breeze and more then likely north of the taf
sites. Light to moderate southeast winds with a few gusts up to 20
knots in the afternoon. Low level moisture may deepen overnight
with aVFR ceiling developing around or after midnight.

Prev discussion issued 413 am cdt Fri sep 21 2018
short term (today through Saturday): rain chances will once again be
delayed as well as limited across deep south texas and the rgv today
and tonight as a slow moving cold front and mid level trough remain
over NW and northern texas. Even though the moisture content remains
rather rich (pwats 2+ in.) gfs ECMWF show a slightly drier air
between 850-600mb and little to no lift outside of the daily sea
breeze. Have reduced the areal coverage of the inherited low grade
pops, 10-20 percent, and will limit them to along the sea breeze
with most of the shwrs tstms likely to favor areas north of the rgv.

Sunshine will also be limited today as clouds of the mid and higher
variety will be on the increase and may become thick at times with
expected convection over north and central texas. The last day of
astronomical summer will continue to feel like mid-summer with
expected high temperatures slighlty above normal. These "endless
summer" temperatures will combine with higher than normal dew
points pushing the heat indices to 100 degrees or better in most

The front makes some southward headway tonight but still remains
well north of the region keeping pops rather low. Any convection
that forms over the sierra madre will have a chance to move into the
the NW counties, but models continue to favor areas well to the
north of deep south texas. Temperatures overnight once again will
be warm and sultry and may even be a few degrees warmer with
thicker cloud cover and a slight breeze.

Saturday, rain chances ever so slightly begin to increase with
northern and western ranchlands seeing the best chances later in the
afternoon. The mid level trough deepens and the front makes some
headway southward. Convection over central south central texas may
work its way into the region with some home grown convection
initiated by the sea breeze. GFS ec keep higher pops in the north
with slight chances down in the rgv. Temperature trends are lower by
only a few degrees for the first day of fall... But it will still
feel like summer with heat indices once again approaching 100
degrees in some valley locations.

Long term (Saturday night through Thursday): the long term begins
with a wet pattern in place across the forecast area. The best
chances still look to be across the northern tier counties closer
to a shear axis remnant frontal boundary across central texas.

During this time pwats increase to 2.2" - 2.5" respectively so any
showers storms that can develop should be efficient rain

The 00z globals came in a bit drier for the remainder of the long
term period. Kept some pops each day, however, brought them down
to a more modest level. By Wednesday, globals tend to diverge a
bit with the upper level pattern and surface features. Gem brings
a cold front through where the GFS and ECMWF hang up the front
across N central texas as upper level mean flow becomes parallel.

Expect the GFS ecm to have a better handle on this feature given
that it's still just a bit early for a cold front to blast this
far south. Still, with the front shear axis relatively close,
can't rule out some continued rain through midweek, however,
moisture quality looks more limited beyond Tuesday.

Marine (today through Saturday): weak high pressure over the western
gulf to combine with a slow moving cold front and a mid level trough
over the southern plains NW texas maintaining a light to moderate
onshore flow today. As the front approaches central texas Saturday
wind should lighten up a bit. A slight sea this morning to subside
ever so slightly later today with near flat seas Saturday due to the
expected lighter winds.

(Saturday night through Thursday): surface pressure gradient will
be slowly relaxing at the start of the period. This will allow for
a gradual decrease in winds and seas to start the new workweek.

Conditions will continue to be rather benign through mid-week as
winds drop off generally around 10kt or less and wave heights
remaining generally around 1-2 feet. Can't rule out scattered
showers storms throughout much of the long term. Of course where
convection develops, expect locally agitated seas and gusty winds.

Bro watches warnings advisories
Tx... None.

Gm... None.

This product is also available on the web at:
http: weather.Gov rgv
59... Short term aviation
55... Long term

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GOES Local Image of SouthCentralPlains    EDIT
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Wind Forecast for Brownsville, TX (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Brownsville, TX
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.