Sunrise 6:34 AM   Sunset 7:26 PM Moonrise 3:56 PM   Moonset 3:47 AM

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FXUS64 KBRO 200537 AAB AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1237 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 147 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Quasi-zonal 500mb flow over the southern tier of the CONUS with embedded shortwaves to provide western and northern portions of Deep South Texas a slight chance of rain tonight and Saturday. A better chance for showers and thunderstorms for all areas are expected Saturday night will be associated with a slow moving cold front.

18Z surface analysis shows the cold front extending from Eastern Texas through the Texas Hill Country to near Del Rio. Models indicate a slow southerly drift the next 24 hours due to zonal flow aloft and weak surface ridging over the Central Plains. In advance of the front, a weak shortwave is shown mainly by the GFS crossing over the Sierra Madre later tonight igniting a few clusters of thunderstorms over NE Mexico. The westerly flow aloft may allow for a few thunderstorms to cross the Rio Grande possibly impacting Zapata, Starr and Jim Hogg Counties. Brief moderate to heavy rainfall, gusty winds and occasional lightning strikes will accompany any of these storms. For the RGV, low level capping inversion will be in place so not expecting these storms to hold together as they drift eastward. Otherwise, low clouds increase overnight with temperatures only lowering into the low to mid 70s.

The front begins to move south later Saturday and advances through the our region Saturday night as high pressure drops south behind a northern stream low pressure trough. Daytime Saturday is expected to be cloudy to mostly cloudy, warm and humid. Highs climb well into the 80s to lower 90s even with all the cloud cover. As for shower and thunderstorm chances expect isolated activity at best Saturday morning with the departing initial shortwave and slight chances for the afternoon mainly due to daytime heating. Models and ongoing forecast ramps up rain chances Saturday evening and night as the cold front advances through the region. Model consensus PoPs have increased chances into the 30-70% range with highest probabilities over the northern and western ranchlands. As for strength of these potential thunderstorms, latest high resolution models show a weakening capping inversion with ML CAPE in the 1500-2000 j/kg range and 0-6km shear values 30-35 kts. These values may be sufficient for a few strong to borderline severe storms. At this time, SPC indicates only general thunderstorms over Deep South Texas with a Marginal Risk (1 out of 5) for severe thunderstorms over Southcentral and Southeast Texas. As for rainfall amounts, precipitable water values of near 1.8 inches (>90% percentile)
should be sufficient for one-half to one inch amounts from any thunderstorm and can not rule out 2 inches in slow moving storms.

LONG TERM
(Sunday through next Friday)
Issued at 147 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

By the start of the long term period, the cold front is expected to have moved across Deep South Texas and the Gulf waters.
Northerly winds will increase through the morning hours, with the breeziest winds expected over the Gulf waters and along the immediate coast. Wind gusts around 20-30 MPH will prevail through the day, but should begin to subside late Sunday evening. The latest guidance indicates portions of Deep South Texas, mainly the Rio Grande Valley, will still see scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms through late Sunday morning. High temperatures will be noticeable cooler, ranging from the 70s across the Northern Ranchlands to around 80 degrees across the Lower RGV.

Monday will be the coolest day of the week as the region remains under the influence of surface high pressure, with morning low temperatures in upper 50s to low 60s and afternoon high temperatures in the 70s. However, this brief cool down will be short-lived. As surface high pressure shifts east through mid week, surface winds will return to the east and southeast and result in the start of a warming trend once again. An uptick in wind speeds is expected by mid week in response to a deepening system traversing the Plains. Temperatures will gradually warm each day, with highs in the upper 80s and low 90s expected by Thursday across Deep South Texas.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1232 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Light east to southeast winds with MVFR ceilings prevail across Deep South Texas early this morning. MVFR ceilings will continue overnight, with IFR ceilings possible towards sunrise. Patchy fog is also possible, especially at BRO and HRL near sunrise. Confidence remains too low to include dense fog and winds may stay elevated just enough to keep visibilities above 5 miles. VFR conditions are expected to return late this morning into the afternoon. Southeasterly winds become breezy by later this morning. Low cloud decks with MVFR ceilings will be possible by late this evening.

MARINE
Issued at 147 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Tonight through Saturday night...Through Saturday a light to moderate southeast to east flow with a slight to moderate sea is expected with a slow moving cold front across Southcentral Texas.
The front is on track to move into coastal waters late Saturday night with an initial line of showers and thunderstorms followed by fresh to strong northerly winds by sunrise Sunday. Small Craft Advisories are likely to be issued in wake of the frontal passage.

Sunday through Friday...The passage of a cold front will result in increasing northerly winds and building seas on Sunday and Sunday night. Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions are likely, with a low potential for Small Craft Advisory conditions. More favorable conditions are expected beginning on Monday and continuing through the end of the week. Winds will shift to the east and southeast on Monday, with southeast winds prevailing Tuesday through Friday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 71 79 65 75 / 30 50 20 20 HARLINGEN 67 78 61 76 / 30 40 10 10 MCALLEN 68 78 62 76 / 40 50 20 10 RIO GRANDE CITY 65 75 59 74 / 50 50 20 10 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 71 76 67 72 / 20 50 20 20 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 69 78 64 74 / 20 40 10 10

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...None.
GM...None.

Puerto Vallarta
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Fri -- 01:46 AM CST     0.14 meters Low Tide
Fri -- 04:15 AM CST     Moonset
Fri -- 06:38 AM CST     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:35 AM CST     0.83 meters High Tide
Fri -- 01:50 PM CST     -0.06 meters Low Tide
Fri -- 04:06 PM CST     Moonrise
Fri -- 07:21 PM CST     Sunset
Fri -- 08:04 PM CST     0.86 meters High Tide
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Puerto Vallarta, Jalisco, Mexico, Tide feet

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