Tuesday, December11, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Guadalupe-Guerra, TX

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:32AMSunset 6:18PM Tuesday December 11, 2018 11:43 AM CST (17:43 UTC) Moonrise 9:56AMMoonset 9:17PM Illumination 17% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Guadalupe-Guerra, TX
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 20.87, -105.44     debug


Area Discussion for - Brownsville, TX
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus64 kbro 111718 aab
afdbro
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service brownsville tx
1118 am cst Tue dec 11 2018

Discussion Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

Aviation High pressure at the surface and ridging aloft will
provide stability in a pretty dry atmosphere. A few high clouds
will move from west to east through the upper ridge, and moisture
will begin to return at lower levels, providing a few clouds under
an elevated inversion cap, though more so Wednesday morning.

Moderate southeast winds today may become moderate to breezy south
near the coast on Wednesday. Overall, expectingVFR conditions,
though the percentage of cloud cover will increase on Wednesday.

Prev discussion issued 530 am cst Tue dec 11 2018
discussion... Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

Aviation... Clear skies and very light winds prevail across deep
south texas early this morning with high pressure in control. Will
mention a tempo for mfe through 13z as some patchy ground fog has
developed across portions of the rio grande valley this morning.

Otherwise, expectVFR conditions for the next 24 hours. Surface
high pressure across the region will move eastward allowing an
onshore flow to return today.

Prev discussion... Issued 429 am cst Tue dec 11 2018
short term (today through Wednesday): tranquil weather will prevail
through tonight with surface high pressure in control. Clear skies,
very light winds and narrow temperature dewpoint spreads overnight
has allowed some light fog to develop across portions of the rio
grande valley early this morning. The patchy fog is expected to
quickly dissipate by mid morning. Otherwise, mostly sunny skies
today with high temperatures reaching the low 70s. Onshore flow will
increase tonight and Wednesday as surface high pressure continues to
move eastward. Temperatures are expected to fall into the mid to
upper 50s across much of the area under partly cloudy skies.

Temperatures will warm into the mid to upper 70s on Wednesday with a
few showers possible across the gulf waters.

Long term (Wednesday night through Monday): a pretty significant
500 mb trough will be digging into central tx Wed night and
forming up a closed 500 mb low. This closed low will track
steadily east on thurs moving over east tx by mid thurs night. The
surface low associated with this 500 mb low will move east also on
thurs pulling a cold front through the rgv. Both the GFS and ecmwf
models briefly pooled some fairly decent moisture over the rgv
late Wed early thurs which could provide the region with a brief
window of opportunity for some showers along and ahead of the
cold front.

As the strong and broad surface low shifts eastwards over the
lower miss river valley thurs night into fri, a pretty strong pgf
will persist over deep south tx maintaining strong n-nw surface
winds. Wind advisories will likely be needed for most of or all of
the region for thurs afternoon.

As the 500 mb closed low moves farther east, dry and stable
ridging aloft will build over the region for next weekend
resulting in near zero pops and warming temps. Another 500 mb
trough will then dig into the south central plains states late sun
into mon. The approach of this trough will increase pops up a bit
for the end of the forecast period. Will include some slgt chc
pops for Sun night and mon.

The GFS and ECMWF are in decent agreement today trending a little
better versus yesterday's runs. The GFS is maintaining a warmer
solution versus the ECMWF starting Fri after the fropa. Both
models are in pretty good agreement in the handling of the closed
500 mb low moving over tx. The GFS is a bit faster in the
progression of this closed low aloft, but overall both models are
in general agreement in the placement and strength of the upper
low.

Will go close to a general blend of the longer range model
temps pops through day 7.

Overall forecast confidence is slightly above average today
mainly due to the persistent differences for temps after thurs
fropa.

Marine (now through Wednesday): buoy 42020 reported east-southeast
winds around 6 knots gusting to around 8 knots with seas slightly
under 1.3 feet with a period of 5 seconds at 03 cst 09 utc.

Favorable marine conditions will prevail across the lower texas
coastal waters today with high pressure in control. Southeast flow
will increase tonight and Wednesday allowing winds to increase and
seas to build. Small craft should exercise caution conditions may
develop on the gulf waters by tonight.

Wednesday night through Saturday night: the strong pgf generated
by the large closed surface low tracking across tx thurs and fri
will maintain a very hazardous n-nw low level flow across the
lower tx bay and gulf waters. Scas will likely be needed for the
region for thurs and Fri with gale conditions also possible. As
the surface low pushes east away from the tx coastline Fri and
sat, the pgf will slacken steadily allowing for the winds and seas
to diminish late in the forecast period.

Fire weather: plummeting rh values behind the FROPA on thurs will
combine with strong n-nw low level winds on thurs and Fri to
maintain the threat of erratic fire behavior both days. Fire
weather watches red flag warnings will be possible late thurs into
fri for much of deep south tx.

Bro watches warnings advisories
Tx... None.

Gm... None.

This product is also available on the web at:
http: weather.Gov rgv
54 64 62


Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports
Click EDIT to select an airport
Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT   RT Ports Option   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help
Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help
Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   HelpWeather Map
wmap_P
GOES Local Image of SouthCentralPlains    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Brownsville, TX (12,3,4,5)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Brownsville, TX
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.