Monday, September25, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Haiku-Pauwela, HI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:14AMSunset 6:19PM Monday September 25, 2017 8:57 AM HST (18:57 UTC) Moonrise 11:03AMMoonset 10:29PM Illumination 26% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PHZ119 Maalaea Bay- 325 Am Hst Mon Sep 25 2017
Today..Winds variable less than 10 knots. Wind waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..Winds variable less than 10 knots becoming northeast 15 knots after midnight. Wind waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..Winds variable less than 10 knots. Wind waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday night..Winds variable less than 10 knots. Wind waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday..North winds 15 knots veering east in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday night..North winds 20 knots. Wind waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday..Northeast winds 20 knots. Wind waves 2 feet or less.
Friday..Northeast winds 20 knots becoming variable less than 10 knots. Wind waves 2 feet or less. Isolated showers.
PHZ100 325 Am Hst Mon Sep 25 2017
Synopsis for hawaiian coastal waters.. A weak trough will approach and move over the waters today through Wednesday. A frontal boundary will stall north of the waters and dissipate Thursday through Friday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Haiku-Pauwela, HI
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location: 20.92, -156.28     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxhw60 phfo 251350
afdhfo
area forecast discussion
national weather service honolulu hi
350 am hst Mon sep 25 2017

Synopsis
A gentle to moderate trade wind flow will be with us for the new
work week as a surface ridge of high pressure remains north of the
islands. The trades will be light enough to bring on daytime sea
breezes favoring trade wind shelter areas such as the leeward and
southern shorelines. This will lead to some afternoon clouds over
the lee and interior areas. Meanwhile, the trades will bring in a
few showers to the windward areas. A boost in the showers is likely
the second half of the week as passing surface trough ushers in a
wetter trade wind flow. More changes are expected over the weekend
with southerly winds replacing the trades, which will bring on the
vog and muggier conditions.

Discussion
Gentle to moderate trades will grace the new work week with
limited moisture during the first few days of the week. A
weakening surface trough then moves through the islands from the
east on Wednesday, and likely usher in a wetter trade wind flow
for the rest of the week. Also, the trades may strengthen slightly
to mostly moderate speed during this second stretch. Over the
weekend, a drastic change takes place with the trades giving way
to light southerly winds.

The air mass is currently rather stable with a low level inversion
between 6k and 65 hundred feet. It is not a robust inversion over
hilo, likely due to a nearby upper level trough that is expected
to be replaced by upper level ridging by tonight. This weakness
in the inversion could be responsible for some of the evening and
late night showers along the kona coast of late.

The latest satellite imagery shows generally fair to partly
cloudy skies. Radar shows a few showers riding in with the ne
trades, mostly concentrated oahu. There is a small pocket of
showers located just off keahole airport as well.

While the trades blow in a few showers into the windward areas
during the next 2 days, the winds will be weak enough to allow for
daytime sea breezes, favoring the leeward coasts and interior
areas of the smaller islands. The stable mass, however, will limit
these afternoon showers to isolated. As for leeward big island
this afternoon, we anticipate some showers. They should be ending
early before midnight due to a more stable air mass.

We anticipate a boost in the trades showers as early as late
Tuesday night as a weakening surface trough moves through the
islands from east to west. This surface trough is currently 260
miles E of the big island, and is supported by a stationary upper
level low 450 miles NE of hilo. The upper trough is expected to
weaken in the next 24 to 36 hours. In wake of the trough's
passage, the second half of the week appears wetter, which is
supported by both the ec and GFS solutions. The precipitable water
values jump up from the current 1.15 to 1.3 inches, to between
1.3 and 1.6 inches east of the trough. A slight bump in the trades
is also expected Wednesday night, and last through Friday. If
this pans out, daytime sea breezes will be severely limited.

Although the windward and mountain areas will rake in most of the
rain, a few showers will venture into the leeward districts of the
smaller islands. Leeward big island will continue to observe
afternoon evening clouds with scattered showers.

The surface winds become light SE on Friday night, then S on
Saturday. Under this wind flow, expect the discomfort level to
rise with increasing humidity, while vog spreads across the
region. This change in wind direction is in response to a front
stalling 350 miles NW of kauai Saturday night as per gfs.

Differences between the ec and GFS continues with the location of
both the surface front and the accompanying upper level trough,
with the ec being a couple of hundred miles further west with both
features. Both models, however, agree in maintaining a wet
pattern.

On Sunday, the southerly wind starts to turn more easterly. This
comes about as the front weakens, allowing ridging to rebuild N of
the islands. So, by Sunday night, all islands should be under a
light to moderate trade wind flow.

Aviation
Vfr will predominate across the island chain. Only brief MVFR
conditions are possible over windward and mauka sections in
passing showers, being carried by the light to moderate trade
winds. Also, wind speeds will be light enough during the afternoon
and early evening hours to allow for cloud buildups, and possible
showers, over interior and leeward areas of each isle.

No airmets are currently in effect and none are anticipated.

Marine
Light to moderate trades are expected to persist through the first
half of the week as a weak surface trough approaches the islands
from the east. The wind flow will be light enough for land sea
breezes to setup over some leeward areas through this time. A
return of moderate to fresh trades are forecast through the second
half of the week as the trough moves through from east to west.

Some of the typically windier channel waters may even near
advisory levels Thursday through Friday.

Surf along south facing shores will remain small through the week
with mainly a mix of background southeast and southwest swell energy
expected. The highly zonal pattern with systems racing eastward
across the southern pacific continues, with no significant sources
shown setting up within hawaii's swell window over the next several
days. The next long-period pulse out of the southwest (210-220 deg)
from the tasman sea should fill in Tuesday night and continue
through midweek, which will lead to a slight increase in surf. This
source is from a strong- to gale-force low that moved across the
tasman sea last week.

Small, short period (10-12 seconds), northwest swell energy will
continue and should be enough to keep the surf from going flat along
north facing shores through the week. Recent surface analysis and
satellite data showed a 998 mb low centered around 1200 nm north-
northwest of the islands with a pocket of near gale-force winds
focused toward the islands within the 330-340 deg band and seas up
to around 10 to 13 ft. A reinforcing north-northwest swell should
reach the local waters late Wednesday and hold through Thursday.

A compact storm-force low currently east of japan is forecast to
continue eastward over the upcoming few days toward the date line
around 35n. Although the GFS wavewatch iii solution suggests a
favorable setup for a west-northwest (310-320 deg) swell to fill
in across the local waters this coming weekend, the ECMWF is not
as aggressive with this system. As a result, swell forecast
confidence from this source for the upcoming weekend remains low
at this time. Guidance should come into better agreement over the
upcoming couple of days.

Surf along east facing shores will remain small through the first
half of the week as the trades locally and upstream of the state
remain light. Once the aforementioned surface trough moves through
from east to west by midweek, small and choppy surf will likely
return as the trades fill back in through the second half of the
week.&&

Hfo watches warnings advisories
None.

Public... Lau
aviation... Kinel
marine... Gibbs


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KLIH1 - 1615680 - Kahului Bay, Maui, HI 10 mi40 min N 2.9 G 2.9 78°F 81°F1015.4 hPa
51205 10 mi49 min 80°F4 ft
51202 - Mokapu Point, HI (098) 82 mi54 min 81°F3 ft

Wind History for Kahului, Kahului Harbor, HI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Kahului, Kahului Airport, HI8 mi64 minN 010.00 miFair78°F66°F67%1015.6 hPa
Lahaina - West Maui, HI20 mi73 minNE 515.00 miPartly Cloudy77°F66°F69%1015.6 hPa

Wind History from HOG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN9N14NE13NE14N12NE14NE13NE12NE12N9NE9N9E5E4E5NE4N3E3SE3SE5SE5SE6S3Calm
1 day agoNE15NE16NE17NE16NE18NE17NE17NE16N14NE13NE10NE7NE5N6NE4N3N6NE4N4N5E5NW6N5N7
2 days agoNE16
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NE21NE17NE16NE12NE10NE10NE7NE7NE10N6NE6NE5NE3NE5N4NE3NE11

Tide / Current Tables for Kahului, Kahului Harbor, Hawaii
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Kahului
Click for Map
Mon -- 05:43 AM HST     1.97 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:15 AM HST     Sunrise
Mon -- 11:03 AM HST     Moonrise
Mon -- 11:45 AM HST     1.18 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:07 PM HST     1.47 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:18 PM HST     Sunset
Mon -- 10:30 PM HST     Moonset
Mon -- 11:00 PM HST     0.43 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.50.81.11.51.81.921.91.71.51.31.21.21.21.31.41.51.41.31.10.90.70.50.4

Tide / Current Tables for Kihei, Maui (Hawaii)
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Kihei
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:32 AM HST     0.37 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:15 AM HST     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:52 AM HST     2.06 feet High Tide
Mon -- 11:03 AM HST     Moonrise
Mon -- 02:09 PM HST     0.73 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:18 PM HST     Sunset
Mon -- 07:49 PM HST     1.26 feet High Tide
Mon -- 10:30 PM HST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.40.40.60.91.21.51.822.121.71.410.80.70.80.911.11.21.31.210.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
cpac_satellite

GOES Local Image of Hawaii    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Kohala, HI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.