Thursday, February22, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Haiku-Pauwela, HI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:49AMSunset 6:29PM Thursday February 22, 2018 4:03 PM HST (02:03 UTC) Moonrise 11:42AMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 53% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PHZ119 Maalaea Bay- 342 Pm Hst Thu Feb 22 2018
Tonight..Winds variable less than 10 knots. Wind waves 2 feet or less. Haze through the night. Frequent heavy showers in the evening. Slight chance of Thunderstorms through the night. Scattered heavy showers after midnight.
Friday..Winds variable less than 10 knots. Wind waves 2 feet or less. Haze in the morning. Scattered heavy showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms through the day.
Friday night..Winds variable less than 10 knots. Wind waves 2 feet or less. Scattered showers.
Saturday..Winds variable less than 10 knots. Wind waves 2 feet or less. Scattered showers in the morning.
Saturday night..Northeast winds 10 knots. Wind waves 2 feet or less. Isolated showers.
Sunday..Winds variable less than 10 knots. Wind waves 2 feet or less. Scattered showers.
Sunday night..Northeast winds 10 knots. Wind waves 2 feet or less. Scattered showers in the evening, then isolated showers after midnight.
Monday..Northeast winds 10 knots. Wind waves 2 feet or less. Isolated showers.
Tuesday..Northeast winds 15 knots. Wind waves 2 feet or less. Isolated showers.
PHZ100 342 Pm Hst Thu Feb 22 2018
Synopsis for hawaiian coastal waters.. Strong high pressure far northeast of the area gradually shifting south and a nearly stationary surface trough northwest of kauai will support increasing southeast winds over the coastal waters through next week. An upper- level disturbance will bring heavy showers and a slight chance of a Thunderstorms from south to north through Friday night.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Haiku-Pauwela, HI
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location: 20.92, -156.28     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxhw60 phfo 221958
afdhfo
area forecast discussion
national weather service honolulu hi
958 am hst Thu feb 22 2018

Synopsis
Low pressure at the surface and aloft to the west of the islands
will continue to draw moist tropical air over the islands the next
few days. This will lead to periods of heavy rain and possible
thunderstorms into the weekend. There may be some improvement
later in the weekend as the low pressure shifts very slowly
westward.

Discussion
A broad surface trough is located about 300 mi W of kauai, and a
large, strong 1041 mb surface high is centered about 1800 mi to
the nne of the islands. Neither of these systems is budging much,
keeping us stuck in an increasingly moist and unstable ese flow at
the surface. An upper low out to our NW is maintaining relatively
cold air aloft over the islands, and the tropical moisture
undercutting the cold air aloft is making the local airmass quite
unstable. This is fueling a large area of showers and a few
embedded thundershowers south of the islands extending across maui
and the big island.

This pattern is only going to evolve very slowly with time. What
makes this a very tricky forecast is that we will be on the edge
of what is likely to be even more active weather out to our west.

Through at least Friday, our concern for heavy rain and flash
flooding is maximized over the E and SE facing slopes and mauka
sections of each island where the low level flow will focus
orographic lift. In addition, these areas are starting off with
saturated antecedent conditions from last weekend's heavy rains.

This is not to say that other areas won't have heavy rain and
flash flooding, however, and the risk is high enough to maintain
the statewide flash flood watch through at least Friday.

The surface trough is expected to sharpen with time as the high to
the NE shoves it's way south. This will eventually pull the axis
of heaviest rain to the W of the islands. When exactly this
happens is still very uncertain, and the models continue to
struggle mightily with this. We may have to extend the flash flood
watch into the weekend, but confidence is not yet high enough to
do so at the moment. One thing that we can say is that the threat
will linger the longest for kauai.

We will remain in relatively moist SE flow into the middle of next
week. Total precipitable water remains above normal in the
guidance but not quite as moist as the next couple of days are
showing. The models are showing the strong NE pacific high
building southward and increasing the pressure gradient over the
islands, with rather strong background winds from a fairly
unusual ese or SE direction by the middle of next week.

Aviation
The atmosphere will be moist and unstable through at least
tonight. A strong mid to upper level trough to the west of state
is gradually drawing up an area of deep moisture toward the
islands from the southwest. Meanwhile, east to east-southeast low
level winds continue to focus rainfall along windward and se
facing slopes.

Multiple airmets are in place and will likely remain posted
through at least tonight. Expect widespread MVFR conditions
across island terrain and E to SE facing slopes, and periods of
ifr conditions in heavy showers and thunderstorms will be
possible anywhere. As a result, airmet sierra is in place for
mountain obscuration for portions of all islands. Light icing will
be possible in the middle and high clouds. This is mentioned in
the airmet bulletin, but conditions are expected to remain below
the airmet threshold. Also, airmet tango remains posted for mid
level turbulence. Guidance shows the likelihood of this turbulence
decreasing, and without any supporting observations, this airmet
will probably be cancelled today.

Marine
Ample moisture and an upper level low just west of the state will
aide in the development of heavy showers and thunderstorms today.

Most activity will move into the area from the south. Coastal
water areas can expect to experience periods of reduce
visibility, gusty winds, and rough seas in any of these shower or
thunderstorm areas. Special marine warnings may need to be issued
on a case by case basis today. The threat for heavy showers and
thunderstorms will gradually shift north and west into Saturday.

The current northwest swell will hold today, with surf heights
below advisory levels. After this swell fades tonight into the
weekend, long term guidance does not favor another west-
northwest northwest swell through at least next week.

Persistent strong high pressure northeast of the state will
continue to produce an area of strong winds directed towards the
area. A lingering surface trough, just west of the offshore
waters will help to force a more southeast wind pattern for the
state. The east-southeast southeast winds are expected to start to
increase around the state today, and remain elevated through most
of next week. Model guidance continues to show the potential of
winds reaching gale force strength by the middle of next week.

The strongest winds will be around the big island and windward
waters of the smaller islands, continuing to favor the more
unusual southeast direction. The swell generated from these winds
will produce elevated surf along east- facing shores. A high surf
advisory will likely be needed for these areas by early Friday
morning and could potentially reach warning levels by the middle
of next week. The combination of the elevated seas and increased
winds will produce small craft advisory conditions starting this
evening, mainly for the channels and exposed windward waters.

See the latest oahu surf discussion (srdhfo) for additional
details on surf and swell.

Hfo watches warnings advisories
Flash flood watch through Friday afternoon for niihau-kauai-oahu-
molokai-lanai-kahoolawe-maui-kona-south big island-big island
north and east-kohala-big island interior.

Winter weather advisory until 6 pm hst Friday for big island
summits.

R ballard wroe eaton


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KLIH1 - 1615680 - Kahului Bay, Maui, HI 10 mi45 min S 8 G 9.9 76°F 77°F1015.1 hPa
51205 10 mi33 min 75°F8 ft
51202 - Mokapu Point, HI (098) 82 mi59 min 74°F7 ft

Wind History for Kahului, Kahului Harbor, HI
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Kahului, Kahului Airport, HI8 mi69 minS 910.00 miPartly Cloudy76°F73°F91%1015.8 hPa
Lahaina - West Maui, HI20 mi73 minSSW 512.00 miLight Rain Haze75°F69°F83%1015.9 hPa

Wind History from HOG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE12E7E5SE6SW4SE4E6CalmSE6SE4SE5CalmCalmSE8S5E4S3CalmNW4NW4W3S6S9Calm
1 day agoN7N6N6N4E4E5CalmCalmS3SE5SE3CalmSE3N6NE3CalmW3CalmCalmN6
G15
NE14NE11S44
2 days agoN8N6N5E5CalmCalmCalmCalmSE5SE5SE6SE3SE6S3SE6SE4N3N7N6N10NE10N10N9N8

Tide / Current Tables for Kahului, Kahului Harbor, Hawaii
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Kahului
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:22 AM HST     1.05 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:33 AM HST     1.49 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:51 AM HST     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:42 AM HST     Moonrise
Thu -- 01:06 PM HST     0.16 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:27 PM HST     Sunset
Thu -- 09:21 PM HST     1.60 feet High Tide
Thu -- 10:09 PM HST     First Quarter
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.11.11.11.31.41.51.51.41.20.90.70.40.20.20.20.40.60.91.21.41.51.61.61.5

Tide / Current Tables for Kihei, Maui (Hawaii)
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Kihei
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:25 AM HST     0.62 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:50 AM HST     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:51 AM HST     1.14 feet High Tide
Thu -- 11:42 AM HST     Moonrise
Thu -- 03:00 PM HST     0.02 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:27 PM HST     Sunset
Thu -- 10:09 PM HST     First Quarter
Thu -- 10:40 PM HST     1.93 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.310.80.60.60.70.911.11.11.10.90.60.30.100.10.40.71.11.41.71.91.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
cpac_satellite

GOES Local Image of Hawaii    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Kohala, HI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.