Thursday, April27, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Ualapu'e, HI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 5:56AMSunset 6:50PM Thursday April 27, 2017 4:23 PM HST (02:23 UTC) Moonrise 7:17AMMoonset 8:34PM Illumination 4% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PHZ120 Pailolo Channel- 330 Pm Hst Thu Apr 27 2017
Tonight..East winds 10 kt. Wind waves 4 ft. SWell south 3 ft. Isolated showers.
Friday..Northeast winds 10 kt. Wind waves 3 ft. SWell south 3 ft. Isolated showers in the morning. Slight chance of Thunderstorms through the day. Scattered heavy showers in the afternoon.
Friday night..Northeast winds 10 kt. Wind waves 3 ft. Northwest swell 3 ft after midnight. SWell south 3 ft. Slight chance of Thunderstorms in the evening. Isolated showers through the night.
Saturday..North winds 10 kt. Wind waves 3 ft. Mixed swell northwest 3 ft and south 3 ft. Scattered heavy showers.
Saturday night..North winds 10 kt. Wind waves 3 ft. Northwest swell 4 ft. Heavy showers likely.
Sunday..North winds 10 kt. Wind waves 3 ft in the morning then 2 ft or less. Northwest swell 4 ft. Heavy showers likely and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Sunday night..Northeast winds 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less than 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Northwest swell 4 ft. Haze. Heavy showers likely and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Monday..Winds variable less than 10 kt. Wind waves 3 ft. Northwest swell 4 to 5 ft. Haze. Heavy showers likely and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Tuesday..Winds variable less than 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Northwest swell 3 to 4 ft. Haze. Scattered showers.
PHZ100 330 Pm Hst Thu Apr 27 2017
Synopsis for hawaiian coastal waters.. A ridge of high pressure north of the waters will continue to weaken today as a front moves into the area from the northwest late tonight. The front will reach kauai Friday afternoon and the central islands Friday night where it will stall. The front and and upper level disturbance will bring unsettled weather to the region through the weekend and into early next week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ualapu'e, HI
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location: 21.05, -156.88     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxhw60 phfo 280217
afdhfo
area forecast discussion
national weather service honolulu hi
417 pm hst Thu apr 27 2017

Synopsis
A cold front and associated upper trough will approach the state
tonight and will bring the potential for heavy rain and
thunderstorms across the state on Friday. The front will stall
over maui county or near the northern big island this weekend with
cooler and drier air reaching kauai and oahu Saturday. A cold
upper low will dig southward over the state on Sunday and bring
the potential for heavy showers and thunderstorms Sunday and
possibly Monday.

Discussion
Light southeast flow over the islands have allowed sea breezes to
bring afternoon clouds and showers over the island interiors this
afternoon. Visible satellite and radar show moderate to briefly
heavy showers with mostly cloudy skies. These clouds and showers
are expected to decrease this evening around sunset. Land breezes
will fill in over most of the state tonight.

The southeast flow is the result of an approaching cold front 250
miles northwest of kauai this afternoon. As associated trough
aloft is also approaching the state which will begin to destabilize
the atmosphere over the course of the next 12 hours. 00z soundings
at hilo and lihue show a weakening and rising inversion height of
9000 to 10000 feet. Soundings showed precipitable water values of
around 1.2 inches.

The atmosphere will become more unstable as the upper trough
brings colder temperatures aloft over the state by Friday
morning. Models depict a cold pool with 500 mb temperatures around
-12 celsius temperatures by morning.

The resulting instability will tap into the low level moisture along
and ahead of the incoming front. Thus, a slight chance of thunderstorms
and possible locally heavy rain is in the forecast for most of
the state on Friday and Friday evening. The front itself will
reach kauai Friday afternoon and, oahu late Friday, then stall
over eastern maui county or the northern big island Saturday
afternoon. Breezy north winds will build in through the day over
kauai and oahu Friday night.

Cool and dry air will follow behind the front, but will likely
only reach as far as oahu and bring more pleasant conditions over
both islands on Saturday. The dry air will provide a brief reprieve
from the active weather for kauai and oahu with dew points dipping
into the upper 50s Saturday and Saturday night. Maui county and
the big island will remain under the stalled front and will keep
the higher humidity and the potential for heavy rain and
thunderstorms Saturday.

A very cold upper level low will cut off and drop southward
toward the islands, bringing more instability over the state
beginning around Sunday morning into early next week. The gfs,
ecmwf and NAM depict 500 mb temperatures dropping to -16 celsius.

While the models are coming into a little better alignment with
the core of the low passing between kauai and oahu on Sunday,
there are still some subtle timing differences between the passing
of the low over hawaii.

Essentially, we are looking at the upper low tapping into the low
level moisture set up over maui county and the big island and will
bring the potential for heavy rain and thunderstorms for Sunday
and Monday. While most of the focus will be over the eastern half
of the state, the greatest instability will pass over the kauai
and oahu Sunday. We cannot rule out the potential for heavy rain
and thunderstorms statewide on Sunday. Some showers and
thunderstorms may continue for the eastern half of the state into
Monday. There is also the chance for winter weather on the big
island summits this weekend.

Gentle trade winds and much more stable weather should return by
the middle of next week, as the upper trough weakens and moves
east of the area.

Aviation
An approaching cold front has weakened the trade winds and shifted
winds from the southeast. Widespread leeward sea breezes are
expected in the afternoon with convective cloud build ups and
isol MVFR over mountain and interior sections. Skies will
partially clear overnight with downslope flow expected. The front
will reach kauai Friday with tempo MVFR expected in showers and
moderate north winds. There will be a chance for scattered
prefrontal showers over the rest of the state.

Airmet sierra is in effect for mountain obscuration across all
mountains of oahu through this afternoon.

Marine
Winds will remain light and variable today as a north to south
oriented trough forms over the central islands ahead of the
advancing front. Satellite imagery shows the front is just
beyond the NW offshore waters this afternoon, kauai Friday
morning, and by oahu Friday afternoon, before stalling over maui
county through the weekend. Breezy NE winds behind the front will
warrant a small craft advisory for the coastal waters around and
west of oahu. The front is forecast to inch slowly eastward to the
big island late in the weekend with the NE winds weakening below
advisory level. The arrival of the front will be enhanced by a
strong upper level trough resulting in an unsettled weather period
this weekend, including a chance of thunderstorms over the
surrounding waters through Monday of next week.

Swell-wise, the currently NW swell will continue to subside today.

A moderate NW swell with an 8 second period arrives Friday night
and peaks Saturday. A similar size swell from the north follows
for Sunday night and Monday. A small NW swell with a 14 second
period is on tap for Tuesday night and Wednesday.

The south facing shores will be impacted by a couple of south
swells during the forecast period, the first of which is due to
arrive early Friday morning. Surf from this swell could be large
enough to warrant a high surf advisory for the south facing
shores. A gradual lowering will follow early Saturday morning.

Another southerly swell is expected to arrive Monday afternoon,
but the majority of this energy appears to stay east of oahu,
focusing instead on eastern maui county and the big island.

Smaller surf can be expected along the east facing shores over
the weekend as the trades take a breather.

Hfo watches/warnings/advisories
None.

Discussion... Foster
aviation... Morrison
marine... Ts


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
51203 - Kaumalapau, HI (146) 19 mi39 min 80°F3 ft
KLIH1 - 1615680 - Kahului Bay, Maui, HI 24 mi54 min NW 5.1 G 6 74°F 78°F1015.9 hPa
51205 24 mi45 min 77°F4 ft
51202 - Mokapu Point, HI (098) 49 mi50 min 79°F4 ft

Wind History for Kahului, Kahului Harbor, HI
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Last
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NE17
G21
NE17
G23
NE8
G16
NE5
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NE10
G13
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G16
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G18
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G12
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NE18
G24
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G24
NE17
G25
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G22
E7
G16
NE5
G9
E1
N4
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NE6
G13
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S1
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G14
NE11
G16
NE12
G16
NE9
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NE15
G20
NE14
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G21
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NE21
G26
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G28
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G12
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G18
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G16
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G19
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G22
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NE19
G26
NE20
G26

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Lahaina - West Maui, HI13 mi39 minVar 615.00 miMostly Cloudy81°F62°F54%1015.9 hPa
Kaunakakai, Molokai Airport, HI14 mi30 minN 1210.00 miPartly Cloudy75°F70°F84%1016 hPa
Lanai City, Lanai Airport, HI19 mi28 minWNW 610.00 miOvercast74°F64°F71%1015.7 hPa

Wind History from HJH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr----------------------------E756N10N12NE10E86NE106
1 day agoNE14E13------------------------NE12NE8NE10NE15NE12NE15
G22
NE18
G24
NE12
G20
N15
G22
NE15
G23
2 days ago------------------------------------------------

Tide / Current Tables for Kamalo Harbor, Molokai Island, Hawaii
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Kamalo Harbor
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:51 AM HST     1.15 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:59 AM HST     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:17 AM HST     Moonrise
Thu -- 10:03 AM HST     -0.39 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:44 PM HST     2.28 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:51 PM HST     Sunset
Thu -- 08:34 PM HST     Moonset
Thu -- 11:55 PM HST     0.00 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.10.40.81.11.110.80.40-0.3-0.4-0.30.10.71.31.92.22.32.11.71.20.80.30.1

Tide / Current Tables for Kaunakakai, Molokai (Hawaii)
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Kaunakakai
Click for Map
Thu -- 04:31 AM HST     1.13 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:59 AM HST     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:17 AM HST     Moonrise
Thu -- 10:19 AM HST     -0.25 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:20 PM HST     2.22 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:51 PM HST     Sunset
Thu -- 08:35 PM HST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.10.40.70.91.11.10.90.60.3-0.1-0.2-0.20.10.51.11.622.22.21.91.510.50.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
cpac_satellite

GOES Local Image of Hawaii    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Molokai, HI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.