Friday, October20, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Hickam Housing, HI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:28AMSunset 6:03PM Friday October 20, 2017 2:38 AM HST (12:38 UTC) Moonrise 7:20AMMoonset 7:07PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 0 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PHZ116 Kaiwi Channel- 940 Pm Hst Thu Oct 19 2017
.small craft advisory in effect through Friday afternoon...
Rest of tonight..Northeast winds to 25 knots. Wind waves 9 feet. North swell 5 feet. Scattered showers.
Friday..Northeast winds to 25 knots. Wind waves 9 feet. North swell 5 feet. Isolated showers through the day.
Friday night..East winds 20 knots. Wind waves 8 feet. North swell 4 feet. Isolated showers.
Saturday..East winds 20 knots. Wind waves 7 feet. North swell 4 feet. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon.
Saturday night..East winds 15 knots. Wind waves 6 feet. North swell 4 feet. Isolated showers.
Sunday..East winds 10 knots. Wind waves 5 feet. Northwest swell 5 feet increasing to 7 feet in the afternoon. SWell south 3 feet. Isolated showers through the day.
Sunday night..Northeast winds 10 knots in the evening becoming variable less than 10 knots. Wind waves 5 feet. Northwest swell 7 feet and south 3 feet. Haze. Scattered showers.
Monday..Winds variable less than 10 knots. Wind waves 4 feet. Mixed swell northwest 5 to 7 feet and south 3 to 4 feet. Haze. Showers likely.
Tuesday..Winds variable less than 10 knots becoming northeast 10 knots. Wind waves 4 feet. Northwest swell 5 to 7 feet. Haze. Scattered showers.
PHZ100 940 Pm Hst Thu Oct 19 2017
Synopsis for hawaiian coastal waters.. Strong high pressure will remain north of the islands through Friday, then move rapidly east and weaken Saturday and Sunday. A front will approach from the northwest on Monday, potentially moving across portions of the area on Tuesday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Hickam Housing, HI
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location: 21.31, -157.91     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxhw60 phfo 200615
afdhfo
area forecast discussion
national weather service honolulu hi
815 pm hst Thu oct 19 2017

Synopsis
Strong and gusty trades will continue due to a surface high
located far north of the islands. The winds are expected to start
trending down Friday night as the high begins to weaken as it
moves southeastward. Winds will continue to decrease through the
weekend, with light southeast to south winds expected on Sunday.

Clouds and showers will remain focused over windward and mauka
areas into this weekend, with the trades carrying some brief
showers to leeward sections of the smaller islands through Friday
night. Southerly winds ahead of a potentially vigorous front may
bring much wetter weather to parts of the state early next week.

Discussion
A 1030 mb surface high near 33n 156w, or about 850 miles north of
honolulu, is moving toward the southeast at about 10 mph.

Elsewhere, a north-northeast to south-southwest oriented surface
trough about 800 miles east of hilo is moving slowly westward.

The tight pressure gradient between these features is maintaining
very strong and gusty trade winds across that main hawaiian
islands, especially the eastern end of the state, early this
evening. Therefore, a wind advisory remains in effect through
Friday afternoon for lanai, kahoolawe, and the kohala section of
the big island. We are also monitoring observations on mount
haleakala where windy conditions have also been occurring during
the past 24 to 36 hours. However, winds continue to remain below
the summit wind advisory criteria.

Loops of satellite imagery continue to show scattered to broken
low clouds streaming into the islands in the robust low-level
trade wind flow. Radar reflectivities indicate numerous showers
are embedded within many of these clouds. Most of the showers are
impacting the windward facing slopes and higher terrain on the
islands. However, the strong low-level trade wind flow continues
to transport some of this precipitation over to the leeward
sections of some of the smaller islands. Clouds that developed
over the leeward big island are dissipating as nighttime cooling
occurs and local drainage flow develops. Note that although there
are frequent showers over many areas of the state, rainfall totals
are relatively light.

By late Friday and Saturday, the surface high is expected to
weaken as it shifts to a position far northeast of the islands. As
a result, the trade winds will begin to become lighter as we head
into the weekend. A potentially vigorous surface front
approaching the islands from the northwest will cause the winds to
shift out of the southeast and south by Sunday. The southerly
flow will transport additional moisture into the state from late
Sunday into early next week. In addition, volcanic haze (or
"vog") will likely be transported up over most of the state from
sources on the big island.

In addition to the front, a sharpening upper level trough will
move down toward the islands. These features will act to
destabilize the atmosphere, so the enhanced moisture will be
available for widespread rainfall. Some of the rain could be
heavy, so we can not rule out the possibility of flooding early
next week. Unfortunately, the forecast models have been changing
significantly from run to run, so we are unable to determine the
exact details of this event. For example, 24 hours ago the
guidance suggested the surface winds would be light in advance of
the front. Now, there are indications that strong south to
southwest surface winds may develop over parts of the state early
next week ahead of this front. As a result, future model runs
will need to be monitored for further details.

Aviation
Trade winds will remain strong and gusty into Friday. Thus, airmet
tango will remain in effect through at least 210400 utc.

Satellite imagery shows a field of loose cumulus based clouds
upwind of the islands between 150 to 200 nm. The strong trades will
be pushing these showers ashore of all the islands through out the
night. And thanks to the firm trades, many of these showers will
reach the lee districts of the smaller islands. Brief MVFR ceiling
and vis are expected with these showers. Based on surface obs, the
ceilings associated with these showers are mainly above the MVFR
value of 3k feet. Thus airmet sierra is not necessary at this
time. The tops of these showers are around 9k feet.

Marine
A dynamic weather pattern is expected over the next several days,
with the current strong to gale force trade winds diminishing
steadily over the weekend. Light and variable winds are expected by
Sunday, as the high to the N of the area weakens and moves e, and a
low develops in the same area. This low will send a front toward the
islands early next week, with low confidence as to what impact the
front will have on the local wind and weather. Latest GFS guidance
indicates the potential for light to moderate S to SW winds as the
front approaches Monday, and confidence decreases further thereafter
as a deep-layer cut off low develops N or NW of the islands. There
is the potential for deep southerly flow over the area, which could
fuel heavy showers next week.

With high pressure currently fueling strong trade winds, a gale
warning remains in effect through Friday for the pailolo and
alenuihaha channels, while a small craft advisory (sca) remains
posted elsewhere. The diminishing winds will likely allow the gale
warning to expire Friday night, and the SCA will likely be lowered
for all areas early this weekend. Although short-period wind waves
will be easing, building nnw and S swells Sunday and Monday are
expected to keep combined seas elevated, but below the SCA criteria
of 10 feet.

A high surf advisory for E facing shores is posted through Friday,
with surf expected to diminish below advisory levels by the weekend.

A relatively small nnw swell will build Friday and lower Saturday,
with a larger swell on its heels for Sunday and Monday. This second
swell will likely result in advisory-level surf along N (and
possibly w) facing shores - the first high surf advisory of the
"winter" surf season. This swell will diminish Monday, with the
potential for a larger NW swell Tuesday and Wednesday. Additionally,
another advisory-level S swell is possible Sunday and Monday. A
small long-period W swell is possible for much of next week,
generated by large and slow-moving typhoon lan in the W pacific. See
the oahu surf discussion (srdhfo) for details on the swell sources
affecting the islands.

Fire weather
The kbdi remains elevated, but below the 600 threshold. Strong
and gusty winds with low relative humidities are also expected
Friday afternoon. With minimal rainfall expected at hnl during
the next couple of days, we expect the kbdi to continue to slowly
climb. The gusty winds and low afternoon relative humidity values
are sufficient for a red flag warning, but the limiting factor is
the below threshold kbdi. Note that some leeward areas may still
be experiencing critically dry conditions. The gusty trade winds
should decrease on Saturday. We also expect gradual improvement
later this weekend as the winds continue to weaken and relative
humidities increase.

Hfo watches warnings advisories
High surf advisory until 6 pm hst Friday for east facing shores of
kauai, oahu, molokai, maui, and the big island.

Wind advisory until 6 pm hst Friday for lanai-kahoolawe-big
island north and east-kohala.

Small craft advisory until 6 pm hst Friday for kauai northwest
waters-kauai windward waters-kauai leeward waters-kauai channel-
oahu windward waters-oahu leeward waters-kaiwi channel-maui
county windward waters-maui county leeward waters-maalaea bay-
big island windward waters-big island leeward waters-big island
southeast waters.

Gale warning until 6 pm hst Friday for the pailolo and
alenuihaha channels.

Discussion fire weather... Houston
aviation... Lau
marine... Birchard


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OOUH1 - 1612340 - Honolulu, HI 2 mi57 min NE 6 G 14 76°F 80°F1019.1 hPa
51211 3 mi69 min 80°F3 ft
MOKH1 - 1612480 - Mokuoloe, HI 11 mi63 min ENE 18 G 21 77°F 78°F1019.3 hPa
51202 - Mokapu Point, HI (098) 14 mi65 min 80°F10 ft
51201 - Waimea Bay, HI (106) 27 mi37 min 78°F9 ft

Wind History for Honolulu, HI
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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E6
G11
NE3
G6
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G9
SE4
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NE7
G12
NE4
G12
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G13
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G19
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NE6
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NE4
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N9
G17
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NE6
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G14

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Honolulu, Honolulu International Airport, HI3 mi46 minNE 16 G 229.00 miLight Rain75°F66°F76%1018 hPa
Oahu, Kalaeloa Airport, HI9 mi46 minE 7 G 16 miMostly Cloudy78°F64°F64%1019.1 hPa
Kaneohe, Marine Corps Air Station, HI12 mi1.7 hrsENE 14 G 2410.00 miPartly Cloudy79°F69°F72%1018 hPa
Wheeler Air Force Base / Oahu, HI13 mi41 minN 010.00 miOvercast72°F66°F83%1017.9 hPa

Wind History from HNL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE13NE13NE13
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1 day agoNE12
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2 days agoNE15
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NE14E19
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NE12NE15
G22
NE11
G23
E20
G25
NE14E13
G19
E16NE14

Tide / Current Tables for Honolulu, Honolulu Harbor, Oahu Island, Hawaii
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Honolulu
Click for Map
Fri -- 04:24 AM HST     2.05 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:29 AM HST     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:19 AM HST     Moonrise
Fri -- 10:51 AM HST     0.36 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:12 PM HST     1.31 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:02 PM HST     Sunset
Fri -- 07:07 PM HST     Moonset
Fri -- 10:05 PM HST     0.07 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.611.51.8221.81.410.70.40.40.50.711.21.31.31.10.80.40.20.10.2

Tide / Current Tables for Hanauma Bay, Oahu Island, Hawaii
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Hanauma Bay
Click for Map
Fri -- 03:26 AM HST     2.01 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:28 AM HST     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:18 AM HST     Moonrise
Fri -- 10:07 AM HST     0.43 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:14 PM HST     1.30 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:02 PM HST     Sunset
Fri -- 07:06 PM HST     Moonset
Fri -- 09:21 PM HST     0.16 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
11.41.8221.81.51.10.80.50.40.50.711.21.31.31.10.80.50.30.20.20.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
cpac_satellite

GOES Local Image of Hawaii    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Molokai, HI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.