Friday, October20, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Haleiwa, HI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:29AMSunset 6:04PM Friday October 20, 2017 8:05 AM HST (18:05 UTC) Moonrise 7:21AMMoonset 7:08PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 0 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PHZ114 Oahu Windward Waters- 338 Am Hst Fri Oct 20 2017
.small craft advisory in effect through early Saturday morning...
Today..East winds to 25 knots. Wind waves 9 feet. North swell 5 feet. Isolated showers through the day.
Tonight..East winds 20 knots. Wind waves 8 feet. North swell 4 feet. Isolated showers.
Saturday..East winds 20 knots. Wind waves 7 feet. North swell 4 feet. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon.
Saturday night..East winds 15 knots. Wind waves 7 feet. Northwest swell 4 feet. Scattered showers.
Sunday..East winds 10 knots. Wind waves 5 feet. Mixed swell northwest 5 feet and south 3 feet. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon.
Sunday night..South winds 10 knots in the evening becoming variable less than 10 knots. Wind waves 4 feet. Northwest swell 7 feet and south 3 feet. Haze. Scattered showers.
Monday..Southwest winds 10 knots veering northwest after midnight. Wind waves 4 to 5 feet. Mixed swell northwest 5 to 7 feet and south 3 to 4 feet. Haze. Showers likely.
Tuesday..North winds 10 knots. Wind waves 4 to 5 feet. Northwest swell 8 to 10 feet. Scattered showers.
PHZ100 338 Am Hst Fri Oct 20 2017
Synopsis for hawaiian coastal waters.. Strong high pressure will remain north of the islands through today, then move rapidly east and weaken Saturday and Sunday. A front will approach from the northwest on Monday, and move across portions of the area Monday night and Tuesday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Haleiwa, HI
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location: 21.6, -158.12     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxhw60 phfo 201413
afdhfo
area forecast discussion
national weather service honolulu hi
413 am hst Fri oct 20 2017

Synopsis
Strong and gusty trades will continue due to a surface high
located far north of the islands. Clouds and showers will remain
focused over windward and mauka areas into this weekend, with the
trades carrying some brief showers to leeward sections of the
smaller islands through tonight. The winds are expected to start
trending down tonight and Saturday as the high begins to weaken as
it moves southeastward. Winds will continue to decrease later
this weekend, with light and variable winds expected by early
Sunday. Southerly winds ahead of a potentially vigorous front may
bring increased moisture with much wetter conditions possible
across most of the state early next week.

Discussion
A 1029 mb surface high near 33n 156w, or about 830 miles north of
honolulu, is moving toward the southeast at about 10 mph.

Elsewhere, a north-northeast to south-southwest oriented surface
trough about 740 miles east of hilo is moving slowly westward. The
tight pressure gradient between these features is maintaining
very strong and gusty trade winds across that main hawaiian
islands, especially the eastern end of the state, early this
morning. Therefore, a wind advisory remains in effect through this
afternoon for lanai, kahoolawe, and the kohala section of the big
island. We have also added the big island summits of mauna loa
and mauna kea to the wind advisory, since winds are close to
summit wind advisory criteria. Observations from mount haleakala
continue to show windy conditions, but they remain below the
advisory criteria for the summits.

Loops of satellite imagery continue to show broken low clouds
streaming into the islands in the robust low-level trade wind
flow. Radar reflectivities indicate numerous showers are embedded
within many of these clouds. Most of the showers are impacting the
windward facing slopes and higher terrain on the islands. However,
the strong low-level trade wind flow continues to transport some
of this precipitation over to the leeward sections of some of the
smaller islands. Note that although there are frequent showers
over many areas of the state, rainfall totals are relatively
light.

By later tonight and Saturday, the surface high is expected to
weaken as it shifts to a position far northeast of the islands. As
a result, the trade winds will begin to become lighter as we head
into the weekend. Trade showers will continue to fall over
windward and mauka sections of the state into this weekend. The
winds will be light and variable across most areas by Sunday
morning. However, a potentially vigorous cold front approaching
the islands from the northwest will cause the winds to shift out
of the southeast and south by Sunday night. The southerly flow
will transport additional moisture into the state. In addition,
volcanic haze (or "vog") will likely be transported up over most
of the state from sources on the big island. The models appear to
show the cold front reaching kauai Monday night, then pushing
down across oahu and the central islands on Tuesday. Breezy
northwest to north winds will likely fill in behind the front.

In addition to the front, a sharpening upper level trough will
move down toward the islands. An upper-level cut-off low may
eventually develop north of the area within this amplified
trough. These features will likely combine to destabilize the
atmosphere, so the enhanced moisture will be available for
widespread rainfall. Some of the rain could be heavy, so we can
not rule out the possibility of localized flooding early next
week. Unfortunately, the forecast models have been changing from
run to run, so we are unable to determine the exact details of
this event at this time. As a result, future model runs will need
to be monitored for further details.

Aviation
Trade winds will remain strong and gusty into tonight. Thus,
airmet tango will remain in effect through at least 210400 utc.

Upper air soundings from lihue and hilo this morning shows a
speed shear between fl260 and fl340, that may cause tempo moderate
turb. Hence, airmet tango. Will keep it going beyond 22z.

It has been mainly a wet trade wind pattern for the past 24 hours
or so. And this trend will likely continue for today as the
satellite imagery shows the islands in the path of some loose
showery-looking cumulus based clouds. This field extends upwind of
the islands for several hundred miles. The strong trades will be
ushering them along throughout today, across all of the islands.

The windward and mountain areas will rake in most of the clouds
and showers, but a good number of them will move well into the
leeward communities of the smaller islands. Based on surface obs,
the ceilings associated with these showers are mainly above the
MVFR value of 3k feet. With this said, airmet sierra is not likely
this time. Most of the showers have vis between 3 and 5 mi. The
lowest vis was just under 2 mi. The tops of these showers are
around 9k feet.

Marine
A dynamic wind, wave and weather pattern is expected over the
next several days, with the current strong to gale force trade
winds diminishing steadily over the weekend. Light and variable
winds are expected by Sunday, as the high to the N of the area
weakens and moves e, and a low develops in the same area. This low
will send a front toward the islands early next week, and the
forecast now expects the front to move across kauai and oahu late
Monday into Tuesday, with associated changeable winds and weather.

Forecast confidence diminishes significantly thereafter as models
are varying wildly with the evolution of a deep-layer cut-off low
that is expected to develop N of the islands.

With high pressure currently fueling strong trade winds, a gale
warning remains in effect today for the pailolo and alenuihaha
channels, while a small craft advisory (sca) remains posted
elsewhere. The diminishing winds will likely allow the gale
warning to expire tonight, and the SCA will likely be lowered for
all areas by early Saturday. Although short-period wind waves
will be easing, building nnw and S swells Sunday and Monday are
expected to keep combined seas elevated, but below the sca
criteria of 10 feet.

A high surf advisory for E facing shores has been extended
through tonight, as an ascat pass showed upstream and nearby trade
winds remain sufficiently strong to support ongoing high surf. A
moderate long-period nnw swell has been building overnight and
will peak later today and lower Saturday. A larger NW swell is
expected Sunday and Monday, likely resulting in advisory-level
surf along N (and possibly w) facing shores. This swell will
begin to diminish Tuesday, but another (larger, but shorter
period) NW swell is expected late Tuesday into Wednesday.

Additionally, advisory-level surf along S facing shores is
possible Sunday and Monday, generated by a distant low in the s
pacific. A small long-period W swell is possible next week,
generated by large and slow-moving typhoon lan in the W pacific.

See the oahu surf discussion (srdhfo) for details on the swell
sources affecting the islands.

Fire weather
The kbdi remains elevated, but below the 600 threshold. Strong
and gusty winds with low relative humidities are also expected
this afternoon. With minimal rainfall expected at hnl during the
next couple of days, we expect the kbdi to continue to slowly
climb. The gusty winds and low afternoon relative humidity values
are sufficient for a red flag warning, but the limiting factor is
the below threshold kbdi. Note that some leeward areas may still
be experiencing critically dry conditions. The gusty trade winds
should decrease on Saturday. We also expect gradual improvement
later this weekend as the winds continue to weaken and relative
humidities increase.

Hfo watches warnings advisories
High surf advisory until 6 am hst Saturday for east facing shores
of kauai, oahu, molokai, maui, and the big island.

Wind advisory until 6 pm hst this evening for lanai-kahoolawe-
big island north and east-kohala-big island summits.

Small craft advisory until 6 am hst Saturday for kauai northwest
waters-kauai windward waters-kauai leeward waters-kauai channel-
oahu windward waters-oahu leeward waters-kaiwi channel-maui
county windward waters-maui county leeward waters-maalaea bay-
big island windward waters-big island leeward waters-big island
southeast waters.

Gale warning until 6 pm hst this evening for the pailolo and
alenuihaha channels.

Discussion fire weather... Houston
aviation... Lau
marine... Birchard


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
51201 - Waimea Bay, HI (106) 5 mi34 min 78°F10 ft
MOKH1 - 1612480 - Mokuoloe, HI 21 mi90 min ENE 14 G 20 77°F 78°F1018.5 hPa
51211 23 mi66 min 80°F3 ft
OOUH1 - 1612340 - Honolulu, HI 25 mi54 min NE 7 G 14 77°F 80°F1018.4 hPa
51202 - Mokapu Point, HI (098) 27 mi62 min 80°F11 ft

Wind History for Mokuoloe, HI
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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NE17
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wheeler Air Force Base / Oahu, HI10 mi68 minNE 710.00 miOvercast73°F66°F80%1017.2 hPa
Honolulu, Honolulu International Airport, HI20 mi73 minENE 15 G 2010.00 miLight Rain75°F66°F76%1017.2 hPa
Oahu, Kalaeloa Airport, HI20 mi73 minENE 8 miMostly Cloudy75°F66°F74%1018.4 hPa
Kaneohe, Marine Corps Air Station, HI21 mi2.1 hrsENE 12 G 217.00 miMostly Cloudy78°F70°F76%1016.9 hPa

Wind History from HHI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE9E9NE5NE11
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NE8CalmNE3CalmCalmNE6E8NE9NE7E7
1 day agoN6
G18
NE6E9E13E7E12E10
G17
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NE12NE6NE13NE6E3E8E7E8E10
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E5NW4NE4E4NE3N3NE8
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2 days agoNE14
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E8CalmE7NE10NE7NE12
G19
NE9NE6N3NE9
G16
NE12
G17

Tide / Current Tables for Haleiwa, Waialua Bay, Oahu Island, Hawaii
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Haleiwa
Click for Map
Fri -- 03:22 AM HST     1.64 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:30 AM HST     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:20 AM HST     Moonrise
Fri -- 08:46 AM HST     0.29 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:10 PM HST     1.05 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:03 PM HST     Sunset
Fri -- 07:07 PM HST     Moonset
Fri -- 08:00 PM HST     0.05 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
11.31.51.61.61.310.60.30.30.40.50.70.91110.70.40.20.10.10.30.5

Tide / Current Tables for Laie Bay, Oahu Island, Hawaii
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Laie Bay
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:39 AM HST     2.09 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:29 AM HST     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:19 AM HST     Moonrise
Fri -- 08:30 AM HST     0.46 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 01:57 PM HST     1.60 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:02 PM HST     Sunset
Fri -- 07:06 PM HST     Moonset
Fri -- 08:07 PM HST     -0.09 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.41.822.11.91.51.10.70.50.50.70.91.31.51.61.51.20.80.40.1-0.1-00.30.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
cpac_satellite

GOES Local Image of Hawaii    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Molokai, HI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.