Monday, November19, 2018

Marine Weather and Tides
Aguadilla, PR

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:57AMSunset 6:02PM Monday November 19, 2018 11:38 AM AST (15:38 UTC) Moonrise 3:52PMMoonset 3:29AM Illumination 88% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Aguadilla, PR
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location: 21.66, -71.76     debug

Area Discussion for - San Juan, PR
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Fxca62 tjsj 191514
area forecast discussion
national weather service san juan pr
1114 am ast Mon nov 19 2018

Update Made minor changes to previous forecast package mainly
to lower the probability of precipitation for this afternoon and
tonight. Isolated showers were observed across the u.S. Virgin
islands and eastern puerto rico early this morning... However those
showers rapidly dissipated as a dry airmass moved west over our
local area. Although 12z sounding showed a precipitable water
value of 1.57 inches... This was mainly due to a very shallow layer
of increased moisture below five thousand feet. That could also be
the result of the sounding being released just at the time when
the isolated showers were moving through the area and thus may not
be representative of the lower atmosphere. A rather deep layer
dry airmass is indicated above 850 mb with a least two inversion
layers just below and around 700 mb. This will make it rather
difficult for any shower activity (not to mention thunderstorm) to
develop. Yet, orography and local breezes convergence may be
enough to induce the development of scattered showers over western
interior and northwest puerto rico during the afternoon. Models
and satellite images indicate the dry airmass may remain over our
area at least through Tuesday afternoon. A patch of moisture may
begin to affect the usvi late Tuesday afternoon and reach eastern
pr Tuesday evening with a resultant increase in showers activity.

Prev discussion issued 404 am ast Mon nov 19 2018
synopsis... A surface high pressure located over the central atlantic
will continue to generate easterly winds across the local region.

Expect increasing moisture associated to a low level disturbance
that is forecast to move across the southern caribbean waters
between today through Tuesday.

Short term... Today through Wednesday...

modest high pressure at the surface continues over the central
atlantic. A ridge of high pressure at upper levels will move across
the area from haiti to arrive on Wednesday, with north to northwest
flow over the area the entire period. Mid levels are exceptionally
dry (less than 6%) through Wednesday night. This will limit showers
and convection over the area significantly. This morning a band of
moisture begins to generate around 52 west in the easterly flow. It
will strengthen through Wednesday and expand in area as it
approaches puerto rico and the u.S. Virgin islands. It will enter
the forecast area on Tuesday afternoon, spread through the area late
Tuesday and Tuesday night, then leave the area just as quickly on
Wednesday morning. Models show its maximum vertical extent when it
passes over san juan Tuesday night should be only about 600 mb, so
thunderstorms are not expected. Low level moisture on Wednesday
will probably linger long enough to support good--though shallow--
convection Wednesday afternoon in western puerto rico, otherwise
conditions dry rapidly and few showers should be seen. One note,
although models have been consistent with regard to the existence of
this feature, they have steadily advanced its arrival by several
hours in each run as well as weakened it during the last past
several days. This trend may continue.

Long term... Thursday through Monday...

high pressure will move closer our local forecast area on Thursday
generating a more stable and drier conditions across the local
region through Friday. After Saturday the forecast will depend how
close the frontal boundary will be to our local forecast area. On
the latest GFS model suggest the highest amount of moisture will
stay over the atlantic ocean but enough moisture will reach the
local area to increase the chances of showers on Sunday and

Aviation...VFR conditions are expected to prevail across the
forecast area thru 20 06z. With exceptions mentioned blo.

-shra shra are fcst to dvlp across the WRN and interior areas of pr
by 19 19z, clrg aft 18 23z. Any MVFR due to CIGS will be brief as it
was earlier this morning at tist and would be most likely at tisx
and tkpk bfr 19 15z. Brief MVFR will also be psbl at tjmz btwn 19 18-
21z with mtn obscurations over the cordillera central. Winds will
continue to prevail from the east to northeast at 10 to 15 kt--
highest along the coasts with sea breeze influences. MAX winds nw-n
25-25 kt btwn fl270-470.

Marine... Small craft operators should exercise caution as
combined seas are forecast to be between 4 to 6 feet across local
atlantic waters, anegada passage and the off shore caribbean
waters. A small NE ground swell will continue to reach our
northern exposed coast through at least mid week. Another northern
swell will reach our northmen coast on Saturday night and peak on
Sunday morning. Easterlies winds throught at least mid week on
the range of between 10 to 20 knots. There is a moderate risk of
rip currents across many of the local northern exposed beaches

Preliminary point temps pops
Sju 88 75 87 75 10 10 50 50
stt 86 76 86 76 10 10 50 50

Sju watches warnings advisories
Pr... None.

Vi... None.

Am... None.

Short term... Rgh
long term... .Rgh

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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Tide / Current Tables for Abrahams Bay, Mayaguana Island, Bahamas
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Abrahams Bay
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Mon -- 02:34 AM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 04:33 AM EST     2.95 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:07 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:46 AM EST     1.28 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 02:57 PM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 04:43 PM EST     2.82 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:07 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 10:51 PM EST     1.04 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Puerto Rico    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Puerto Rico,Virgin Islands
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.