Saturday, March25, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Aguadilla, PR

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:41AMSunset 6:58PM Saturday March 25, 2017 11:44 AM AST (15:44 UTC) Moonrise 4:59AMMoonset 4:48PM Illumination 4% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Aguadilla, PR
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location: 21.66, -71.76     debug

Area Discussion for - San Juan, PR
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Fxca62 tjsj 251533
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service san juan pr
1133 am ast Sat mar 25 2017

Update The 25/12z sounding came in wetter than 24 hours ago but
not as wet as 12 hours ago when some convection was still present
in the san juan area. Precipitable water was 1.93 inches. Some
levels of weak moisture have kept showers to a minimum over
puerto rico with 3 hour rain totals in north-south bands just
east and west of the island. Most of saint croix and saint thomas
were missed completely.

Southwest flow will continue through the day. Although the chance
of thunderstorms is not quite as high as previously expected--
isolated thunderstorms are still possible most everywhere showers
develop. The goes-r non-operational snow/ice product imagery did
show some glaciated tops over the area and infrequent lightning
had been occurring north of the forecast area.

Heavy cloudiness should inhibit strong heating today and tomorrow
so have lowered temperatures in the lower elevations to no more
than the mid 80s both today and Sunday.

Afternoon convection with at least some showers--is not heavily
favored by the models. Although the GFS has good chances for
showers in northwest puerto rico most of the finer resolution
models do not. Nevertheless have kept at least scattered showers
for all land areas and the chances in the usvi are better than

Aviation All TAF sites have beenVFR for a number of hours, but
showers are moving toward tisx and models expect better chances
for showers in tist and tisx than most other areas, so some brief
MVFR may be seen there aft 25/16z. Showers west of pr dissolved
in favor of a new band slightly farther away, but MVFR CIGS are
psbl aft 25/17z. Mtn obscurations will continue thru at least
26/04z. Sfc winds se-s 5 to 15 kt with local sea breeze effects
along the north coast of pr. Winds alf are SW 10 to 20 kts btwn
fl060-150. Maximum winds wsw 70 knots btwn fl340-400.

Marine Seas have risen to over 8 feet at the inner buoy and to
almost 12 feet at the outer buoy 41043. Seas have also been 10 to
12 feet at the rincon buoy, 41115 for several hours. The wave
watch model has been underestimating by as much as 3 to 5 feet.

Therefore additional areas have been added to the high rip
current risk and the high surf advisories. Breaking waves can now
be expected up to 15 feet at least through early tonight for
coasts with northern exposures. Seas are expected to subside
beginning tonight and all small craft advisories should be down by
Sunday afternoon. Significant seas will return after mid week.

Prev discussion /issued 517 am ast Sat mar 25 2017/
synopsis... Deep layered moisture and trof pattern aloft will
maintain an unsettled weather pattern through the rest of the
weekend. A surface trough and a developing low to the north of
hispaniola and the mona passage will continue to promote a
moderate southerly wind flow over the forecast area. At least
through the weekend the potential for urban and small stream
flooding will remain high across the islands. The low and a
building high across the western atlantic will promote northwest
to northerly winds by early next week.

Short term... Today through Monday...

a shear line across the atlantic waters in combination with a
developing low pressure system just north of puerto rico will
maintain a very moist and unstable southwest wind flow across the
region until at least Sunday. At the same time an upper level trough
extending from the central caribbean northward across jamaica and
cuba and then over the atlantic waters has maintained an associated
jet over the atlantic waters to the north of the region. These
features will aid in the development of showers and thunderstorms
across the region today an until early the upcoming week. Abundant
tropical moisture embedded in the wind flow will continue to bring
showers and thunderstorms across the caribbean waters and then
across puerto rico and the u.S. Virgin islands today.

Early this morning doppler radar indicated scattered to numerous
showers moving from the caribbean waters, north northeastward
across south central and eastern sections of puerto rico as well
across vieques, culebra and the u.S. Virgin islands. Urban and
small stream flooding are possible today and Sunday across puerto
rico and the u.S. Virgin islands. Drier air will filter across the
region on Monday, but moisture will linger across the region to
produce some showers especially during the afternoon hours.

Long term... Tuesday through Saturday...

surface low is forecast to move north of the islands through early
next week across the central atlantic as a building ridge across
the western atlantic builds and moves north of the islands by
late in the week. This will result in a northwest to northerly
wind flow through the middle of the week. As the low pulls away,
moisture content is expected to diminish quickly over the islands
but moisture content will remain high over the caribbean sea. At
the moment, best chance for showers are expected between
eastern pr and the usvi on Tuesday. At upper levels another short
wave trof is expected to move on Wednesday. Then a ridge will
build across the caribbean basin. This in combination with a cool
northerly wind flow due to the surface high will promote drier air
and seasonable weather conditions across the islands.

Aviation... Shra/tsra will produce periods of MVFR or even ifr
conditions across the leewards, usvi, tjps and tjsj TAF sites until
at least 25/16z. Vcsh expected across the rest of the local flying
area this morning. Mountain obscurations will continue over pr thru
26/00z. Bands of moisture with embedded +ra and tsra will move
occasionally over the local flying area this afternoon to produce
periods of MVFR conditions across most TAF sites.

Marine... A large northerly swell will fill in across the local
passages and atlantic waters through Sunday. Small craft
advisories are in effect. Seas should range between 8-10 feet
across the offshore atlantic and under 8 feet elsewhere across the
passages and the northern coastal waters of the islands. A high
surf advisory is in effect for the northwest through northeast
coast of pr and a high rip current risk is also in effect for the
same areas including northern culebra and northwest st. Thomas.

Beach goers are urged to avoid these coastal areas through the
rest of the weekend.

Preliminary point temps/pops
Sju 84 73 82 74 / 40 20 50 40
stt 82 72 82 73 / 70 50 50 50

Sju watches/warnings/advisories
Pr... High rip current risk through Sunday afternoon for culebra-
mayaguez and vicinity-north central-northeast-northwest-san
juan and vicinity-southeast-southwest-western interior.

Small craft advisory until 2 pm ast Sunday for northeast.

High surf advisory until 6 am ast Sunday for culebra-mayaguez
and vicinity-north central-northeast-northwest-san juan and
vicinity-southeast-western interior.

High rip current risk through late tonight for vieques.

Small craft advisory until 2 am ast Sunday for southwest.

Vi... High rip current risk through Sunday afternoon for
st.Thomas... St. John... And adjacent islands.

Small craft advisory until 2 pm ast Sunday for st.Thomas... St.

John... And adjacent islands.

High surf advisory until 6 am ast Sunday for st.Thomas... St.

John... And adjacent islands.

Am... High rip current risk through Sunday afternoon for coastal
waters of southwestern puerto rico out 10 nm-coastal waters
of northern usvi and culebra out 10 nm-coastal waters of
southern usvi vieques and eastern puerto rico out 10 nm.

Small craft advisory until 2 pm ast Sunday for anegada passage
southward to 17n-atlantic waters of puerto rico and usvi
from 10 nm to 19.5n-coastal waters of northwestern puerto
rico out 10 nm-coastal waters of northern puerto rico out
10 nm-coastal waters of northern usvi and culebra out 10 nm-
mona passage southward to 17n.

High surf advisory until 6 am ast Sunday for coastal waters of
northern usvi and culebra out 10 nm-coastal waters of
southern usvi vieques and eastern puerto rico out 10 nm.

Small craft advisory until 2 am ast Sunday for caribbean waters
of puerto rico from 10 nm to 17n-coastal waters of
southwestern puerto rico out 10 nm-coastal waters of
southern usvi vieques and eastern puerto rico out 10 nm.

Short term... Ws
long term... .Ws

Weather Reporting Stations
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Tide / Current Tables for Abrahams Bay, Mayaguana Island, Bahamas
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Abrahams Bay
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Sat -- 12:11 AM EDT     0.94 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:05 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:33 AM EDT     3.01 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:50 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 12:49 PM EDT     0.94 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:53 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 06:54 PM EDT     2.94 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:04 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of Puerto Rico    EDIT

Wind Forecast for (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Puerto Rico,Virgin Islands
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.