Thursday, April27, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Kalihiwai, HI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:02AMSunset 6:57PM Wednesday April 26, 2017 9:15 PM HST (07:15 UTC) Moonrise 6:35AMMoonset 7:42PM Illumination 2% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PHZ111 Kauai Windward Waters- 332 Pm Hst Wed Apr 26 2017
Tonight..East winds 10 kt. Wind waves 5 ft. Northwest swell 4 ft. Isolated showers.
Thursday..East winds 10 kt. Wind waves 4 ft. Northwest swell 4 ft. Isolated showers.
Thursday night..East winds 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less than 10 kt. Wind waves 4 ft. Northwest swell 4 ft. Isolated showers in the evening...then scattered showers after midnight.
Friday..North winds 10 kt. Wind waves 4 ft. Northwest swell 4 ft. Scattered showers in the morning...then heavy showers likely in the afternoon.
Friday night..North winds 20 kt. Wind waves 5 ft. Northwest swell 7 ft and north 3 to 4 ft. Heavy showers likely.
Saturday..North winds 15 kt. Wind waves 5 ft. Northwest swell 6 ft and north 3 to 4 ft. Scattered heavy showers.
Saturday night..North winds 10 kt. Wind waves 4 ft. Northwest swell 5 ft and north 3 ft. Scattered heavy showers.
Sunday..Winds variable less than 10 kt. Wind waves 3 ft. North swell 5 to 6 ft and north 3 ft. Scattered heavy showers.
Monday..Winds variable less than 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Northwest swell 4 to 6 ft and north 3 ft. Haze. Scattered showers.
PHZ100 332 Pm Hst Wed Apr 26 2017
Synopsis for hawaiian coastal waters.. A ridge of high pressure north of the waters will weaken tonight through Friday as a front moves into the area from the northwest. The front will bring unsettled weather to the region through the weekend.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Kalihiwai, HI
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location: 22.22, -159.43     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxhw60 phfo 270647
afdhfo
area forecast discussion
national weather service honolulu hi
847 pm hst Wed apr 26 2017

Synopsis
Easterly trade winds will persist overnight as a surface ridge
holds north of the state. The atmosphere will remain stable, with
limited showers affecting mainly windward slopes. Trades will ease
and shift out of the southeast Thursday as a front approaches the
state, leading to spotty afternoon showers. Friday, the front
will bring increasing clouds and rain to kauai, while prefrontal
showers, some heavy, develop across the rest of the island chain.

Wet and unstable conditions are expected over portions of the
state over the weekend and into next week.

Discussion
Mainly dry conditions prevail across the state on this Wednesday
evening. Radar shows isolated passing showers over the coastal
waters, and rain gauges around the state have measured very little
if any precip during the past six hours. Moderate trade winds
continue over the islands, driven by a surface ridge located about
400 nm north of kauai. Aloft, a narrow mid level ridge is located
over the state, between an upper level low several hundred miles
southeast of the big island and a large mid/upper level trough
moving east from the international dateline. The 00z soundings
reflect a dry and stable airmass in place, with pw values between
1.1 and 1.2 inches, and inversions based around 8000 feet. Mimic-
tpw satellite imagery depicts similar pw values around the islands,
with the leading edge of an area of enhanced low level moisture
(estimated pw up to 1.5 inches) located about 150 miles east of
hilo. This area is moving westward in the trade wind flow.

Overnight, the area of low level moisture will continue moving to
the west, reaching the eastern end of the state late tonight and
bringing increased shower activity to windward areas of the big
island and maui. Otherwise, expect mainly dry conditions to
continue with just passing light showers over windward slopes.

Have updated the forecasts with some minor adjustments for the
expected weather during the rest of the night.

On Thursday, trade winds will weaken and veer to the southeast
as a late season cold front approaches from the northwest and the
surface ridge to our north weakens. This will allow widespread
seabreezes in the afternoon over much of the state, while trade
winds hang on across windward parts of maui and the big island.

A deep mid/upper level trough driving the surface front will also
advance eastward during this time, displacing the mid level ridge
initially over the islands. This will cause the inversion to begin
to weaken and lift, and this decreased stability combined with
marginal moisture availability and a low level trigger provided by
the expected seabreeze regime could allow for some spotty heavier
showers to develop during the afternoon, especially over leeward
and interior areas.

Latest guidance remains consistent with earlier runs in bringing
the surface cold front to kauai Friday afternoon, with increasing
clouds and showers accompanying the front. Models are depicting a
shallow front with the majority of rainfall on kauai falling over
the northern slopes and coast into Friday night. The atmosphere
will become more unstable as the upper trough brings colder
temperatures over the state. Prefrontal convergence and the
unstable atmosphere will bring an increase in shower activity over
the rest of the state with some pockets of heavier showers
expected.

The shallow front is forecast to reach oahu Friday night or
early Saturday morning, then stall in the vicinity of oahu or maui
county by Saturday afternoon. Meanwhile, a very strong upper level
low for this time of year will be cutting off within the deep
upper trough and dropping southward toward the islands, bringing
increasing instability over the area. This will lead to the
potential for heavy, flooding rainfall over portions of the state
this weekend, and continuing into early next week. The latest gfs
and ECMWF continue to show varying solutions on how quickly this
upper low will move southward over the islands, with the ec
bringing the core of the low over oahu Sunday afternoon while the
gfs is a full day slower, bringing the core of the low over oahu
Monday afternoon. Timing and position differences have persisted
for the last several model runs, which causes us to have low
confidence in these details at this point. The models do agree on
a convergence band forming along the old frontal boundary located
someone near maui county or the big island Saturday night through
Monday, with this feature becoming the focus for heavy rain. In
addition, thunderstorms will be likely near the core of the upper
low due to very cold temperatures aloft, but it is not yet
possible to pin down the timing or location for the thunderstorm
threat.

Overall, there appears to be a substantial threat for heavy rains
and thunderstorms during the weekend and into early next week,
but it is likely going to take another few model cycles before we
can have more confidence in the timing and location details.

More stable weather should return by the middle of next week, as
the upper trough weakens and moves east of the area.

Aviation
High pressure northeast of the state will begin to lose its
influence over the area tonight and Thursday as a front
approaches from the northwest. This will lead to a steady decrease
in the trade winds, with overnight land breezes and daytime sea
breezes expected in many areas. Showers will favor windward areas
overnight through mid morning Thursday, with some brief MVFR
cigs/vsbys possible in shra. Coverage of showers should increase
across the interior of the islands Thursday afternoon and evening,
with some reduced cigs/vsbys possible once again. Otherwise,
predominantlyVFR conditions are expected through 06z Friday.

No airmets are currently in effect.

Marine
A ridge of high pressure located 400 nm north of kauai, is
forecast to move east during the next 48 hours, being pushed
eastward by a front. Our trade winds will be turning light and
variable by Thursday afternoon as this front moves closer to the
islands. Therefore, the small craft advisory (sca) currently in
effect for the alenuihaha channel to until 6 am hst Thursday, will
not be extended.

This front is forecast to stall over the central part of the main
hawaiian islands Friday evening. Breezy NE winds behind the front
will warrant the issuance of a SCA that will cover the waters
over the western half of the island chain. The front is forecast
to inch slowly eastward to the big island over the weekend with
the NE winds becoming moderate. We expect the SCA to be lowered
sometime over the weekend.

Swell-wise, we currently have a fading NW swell. A small to medium
size swell from the N with a 10 second period is due to arrive late
Sunday afternoon and peak Sunday night. Then, a small NW swell with
a 15 second period follows in on Monday and Monday night. Another
small pulse from the NW is slated for Tuesday night and Wednesday.

For the south facing shores, there will be a series of swells.

The for first of two swells is due to arrive Friday night, and
this well will be reinforced by another swell Monday and Tuesday
of next week. Surf from these two swells may warrant an high surf
advisory for the south facing shores.

Lastly, the expected dying trades, means the surf along the east
facing shores will be lowering on Friday.

Hfo watches/warnings/advisories
Small craft advisory until 6 am hst Thursday for alenuihaha
channel.

Discussion... Jacobson
aviation... Jelsema
marine... Lau


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
51208 9 mi54 min 78°F5 ft
NWWH1 - 1611400 - Nawiliwili, HI 19 mi46 min NE 8.9 G 11 76°F 1018.4 hPa
51201 - Waimea Bay, HI (106) 79 mi44 min 77°F4 ft

Wind History for Nawiliwili, HI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Lihue, Lihue Airport, HI17 mi23 minNE 1010.00 miPartly Cloudy77°F68°F74%1018.9 hPa
Kekaha, Pacific Missile Test Facility Barking Sands, HI21 mi20 minENE 310.00 miFair0°F0°F%1018.3 hPa

Wind History from HLI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW3E10NE9E12E9E9E9NE10E8E11E15E6NE7E11NE11E11NE10NE8E11NE12NE11NE10NE10NE10
1 day agoNE10NE10NE10NE11NE11NE11NE12NE13NE13NE10NE12NE12NE12E12NE13NE12E13E12NE12NE11NE10NE13NE10NE12
2 days agoE10NE11NE11NE11E10E10E10E11E11E10E10NE10--E10E10E9E10NE9NE10NE9NE8NE8NE8NE9

Tide / Current Tables for Hanalei Bay, Kauai Island, Hawaii
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Hanalei Bay
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:03 AM HST     0.97 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:08 AM HST     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:26 AM HST     Moonrise
Thu -- 08:33 AM HST     -0.36 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:56 PM HST     2.08 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:03 PM HST     Sunset
Thu -- 08:46 PM HST     Moonset
Thu -- 10:29 PM HST     -0.01 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.40.70.910.90.60.3-0.1-0.3-0.3-0.20.20.71.21.722.11.91.61.10.60.200

Tide / Current Tables for Hanamaulu Bay, Kauai Island, Hawaii
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Hanamaulu Bay
Click for Map
Thu -- 04:14 AM HST     0.87 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:08 AM HST     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:26 AM HST     Moonrise
Thu -- 09:59 AM HST     -0.36 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:07 PM HST     1.98 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:02 PM HST     Sunset
Thu -- 08:45 PM HST     Moonset
Thu -- 11:55 PM HST     -0.01 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.10.30.50.80.90.80.60.3-0-0.3-0.4-0.300.511.51.821.91.61.20.70.30.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
cpac_satellite

GOES Local Image of Hawaii    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Kauai, HI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.