Tuesday, November20, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Princeville, HI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:46AMSunset 5:50PM Tuesday November 20, 2018 10:30 AM HST (20:30 UTC) Moonrise 4:31PMMoonset 4:26AM Illumination 95% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PHZ111 Kauai Windward Waters- 946 Am Hst Tue Nov 20 2018
.small craft advisory in effect through Wednesday afternoon...
Rest of today..East winds to 25 knots. Wind waves 6 feet. Northwest swell 5 feet. Scattered showers late in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon.
Tonight..East winds to 25 knots. Wind waves 8 feet. Northwest swell 4 feet. Scattered showers.
Wednesday..East winds to 25 knots. Wind waves 8 feet. North swell 4 feet. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon.
Wednesday night..East winds 20 knots. Wind waves 7 feet. North swell 3 feet. Scattered showers in the evening, then showers likely after midnight.
Thursday..East winds 20 knots. Wind waves 7 feet. North swell 3 feet. Scattered showers.
Thursday night..Southeast winds 15 knots. Wind waves 7 feet. Scattered showers.
Friday..East winds 10 knots. Wind waves 6 feet. Scattered showers.
Saturday..East winds 10 knots. Wind waves 5 to 6 feet. Northwest swell 4 to 6 feet. Scattered showers.
PHZ100 946 Am Hst Tue Nov 20 2018
Synopsis for hawaiian coastal waters.. High pressure will strengthen north of the area through midweek, then shift east and weaken as a front passes to the north Thursday night through Friday night.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Princeville, HI
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location: 22.22, -159.48     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxhw60 phfo 201931
afdhfo
area forecast discussion
national weather service honolulu hi
931 am hst Tue nov 20 2018

Synopsis
A moderately strong high pressure system passing north of the
islands will bring a boost in the trade winds through Wednesday,
resulting in locally strong speeds. As the high moves to northeast
of the islands during the second half of the week, the trades
will weaken to light to moderate speeds Friday. Winds are expected
to become light and variable over the upcoming weekend. Under this
trade wind flow, expect some brief passing showers, favoring the
windward and mountain areas. An increase in moisture is expected
Wednesday night and Thursday, and this moisture may linger into
the weekend, fueling increased showers.

Discussion
A surface high was analyzed at 1031 mb, about 1000 miles N of
kauai this morning, which is a couple of millibars weaker than
earlier GFS runs. It is forecast to weaken to 1028 mb while moving
to the SE during the next 24 hours. The high will continue to
weaken while moving farther away from the islands through
Thursday. We are predicting a boost in the trades in the next 18
hours across the area. But given the high is 1031 mb and
weakening, it is not all favorable for wind advisory for the
typically windy places of maui and big island counties tonight and
Wednesday. There will be isolated areas but not widespread enough
to warrant a wind advisory. In fact, about all of the high
resolution models have backed off for an even windier situation
for tonight and Wednesday. The high may peaked overnight, and is
now on a downward trend.

Latest satellite imagery shows an area of broken low clouds with
embedded showers, aimed at primarily oahu and maui counties. A
certain percentage of these clouds will be reduced due to daytime
mixing, but it will likely retain a chance of showers for
especially the windward and mountain areas for these two counties.

It looks like these clouds will have a hard time reaching kauai in
one piece, thus the forecast was adjusted for kauai, for nicer,
drier Tuesday. We do expect this broken area of clouds to fill in
late this afternoon, and give windward kauai a small boost in
showers tonight.

Both the GFS and ECMWF suggest patches of shower bearing clouds
affecting the islands before the remnants of a frontal band
settles over us Wednesday night and Thursday. This moisture
lingers over part of the island chain into Friday, while the low
level winds become light and variable over land and light
easterlies over the surrounding waters. It should be noted there
is a difference between the ec and GFS models low level winds.

This solution is a blend between these two models. At the upper
levels, a NE to SW trough is noted W of kauai by both models, but
with the GFS being closer to kauai. The models should be coming to
a closer agreement in the next 24 hours, so the wind scenario for
at least Friday onward is subject to adjustment.

We will be watching this scenario closely under this pattern, for
it tends to potentially bring some heavy rain issues to part of
windward oahu. Thus far, the models are indicating a mid level
ridge over the islands, with an inversion 8 to 10k feet. The upper
trough appears not to be a very strong or vigorous one, so we
should be fine. The two models agree on the upper trough moving
down the island chain on Saturday, but differs on the timing with
the GFS being the more progressive and faster one.

Aviation
A strong high pressure system in the central pacific will
maintaining breezy to locally strong trade winds across the
hawaiian islands through Wednesday. Expect isolated to scattered
showers favoring windward and mountain areas for the next few
days.

Strong trade winds will continue to cause low-level mountain wave
turbulence over and immediately south through west of mountains
on all islands below 080 through Wednesday. Airmet tango remains
in effect for moderate mountain wave turbulence over and immediately
south through west of all islands, and surface winds greater than
30 kts over the channels and waters south of the big island. No
other airmets in effect or expected.

Marine
Strong trades will continue across the hawaiian waters through
Wednesday due to strong high pressure positioned north of the
state. Gales can't be ruled out across the alenuihaha channel and
waters south of the big island tonight through Wednesday, although
the latest model runs are showing slightly weaker winds now for
tonight. Seas are expected to still respond and build to the
advisory level (10 ft) over the exposed waters. A gale watch will
continue to be in effect for the alenuihaha channel and waters
south of the big island beginning tonight and will be reassessed
this afternoon. Elsewhere, a small craft advisory is in effect.

Winds and seas will quickly trend back down through the second
half of the week and into the upcoming weekend as the area of high
pressure weakens and shifts eastward in response to a cold front
passing to the north. Confidence begins to lower through the
second half of the weekend into next week as the pattern shifts
across the northern pacific to a more progressive setup. The gfs
solution indicates the ridge axis will remain overhead locally,
which would keep more of a light and variable pattern in place.

The ecmwf, however, shows this ridge remaining positioned farther
north, which would favor light to moderate trades holding.

The current small northwest swell will peak today and decrease
Wednesday through Thursday. Strong trades will bring an increase
in rough and choppy surf along east facing shores starting tonight
and may bring advisory level surf Wednesday through Thursday.

Surf should slightly lower Friday into the weekend as the trades
weaken. Small surf will continue along south facing shores with
mainly background southern pacific pulses moving through.

For the extended, guidance is reflecting a large and broad gale-to
storm-force low setting up across the far northwest pacific in
response to the aforementioned pattern shift Thursday night
through the weekend. Seas are forecast to climb into the 40-50 ft
range within the associated fetch region focused at the islands
within the 300-320 directional band. Although there remains some
noticeable differences between the various solutions as this
feature evolves through this time, all depict the first
significant northwest swell reaching the islands Sunday night
through early next week. Surf will likely exceed warning levels
Monday. Specifics will come later in the week as this scenario
evolves and confidence increases.

Hfo watches warnings advisories
Gale watch from this evening through Wednesday afternoon for
alenuihaha channel-big island leeward waters-big island southeast
waters.

Small craft advisory until 6 pm hst this evening for alenuihaha
channel-big island leeward waters-big island southeast waters.

Small craft advisory until 5 pm hst Wednesday for kauai northwest
waters-kauai windward waters-kauai leeward waters-kauai channel-oahu
windward waters-oahu leeward waters-kaiwi channel-maui county
windward waters-maui county leeward waters-maalaea bay-pailolo
channel-big island windward waters.

H lau TS kino


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
51208 7 mi24 min 78°F8 ft
NWWH1 - 1611400 - Nawiliwili, HI 20 mi30 min NE 11 G 18 77°F 1020.4 hPa (+1.3)
51201 - Waimea Bay, HI (106) 82 mi18 min 76°F8 ft
51WH0 - WHOTS - Woods Hole Ocean Time-series 91 mi120 min ENE 16 76°F 78°F1019.5 hPa65°F

Wind History for Nawiliwili, HI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Lihue, Lihue Airport, HI18 mi37 minNE 1510.00 miA Few Clouds80°F63°F56%1020.3 hPa
Kekaha, Pacific Missile Test Facility Barking Sands, HI19 mi34 minNW 410.00 miFair78°F66°F69%1019.8 hPa

Wind History from HLI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE17NE16NE15NE15NE17NE16NE16NE18NE17NE16NE17NE16NE16NE15NE14E15NE14NE14NE13NE15
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1 day agoNE13NE14NE15NE15NE15NE18NE16NE17NE16NE18N12NE18NE17NE16NE14NE15NE15NE14NE18
G23
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2 days agoNE19NE17NE17NE14NE14NE16NE15N14NE16NE15NE19NE16NE17NE16NE16NE16NE14NE12NE14NE14NE15NE15NE14NE13

Tide / Current Tables for Hanalei Bay, Kauai Island, Hawaii
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Hanalei Bay
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:56 AM HST     1.86 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:26 AM HST     Moonset
Tue -- 06:53 AM HST     0.50 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:53 AM HST     Sunrise
Tue -- 12:25 PM HST     1.31 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:31 PM HST     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:53 PM HST     Sunset
Tue -- 06:15 PM HST     -0.04 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.81.91.81.51.10.80.60.50.60.811.21.31.31.10.80.40.1-000.20.61.11.5

Tide / Current Tables for Hanamaulu Bay, Kauai Island, Hawaii
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Hanamaulu Bay
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:08 AM HST     1.76 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:26 AM HST     Moonset
Tue -- 06:52 AM HST     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:19 AM HST     0.50 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 01:36 PM HST     1.21 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:30 PM HST     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:53 PM HST     Sunset
Tue -- 07:41 PM HST     -0.04 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.41.71.81.71.51.20.90.60.50.50.70.91.11.21.21.10.80.50.2-0-00.10.40.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Hawaii    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Kauai, HI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.