Wednesday, January23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Stock Island, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:10AMSunset 6:07PM Wednesday January 23, 2019 6:40 AM EST (11:40 UTC) Moonrise 9:05PMMoonset 9:18AM Illumination 93% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ044 Expires:201901231545;;792876 Fzus52 Kkey 230933 Cwfkey Coastal Waters Forecast For The Florida Keys National Weather Service Key West Fl 433 Am Est Wed Jan 23 2019 Florida Bay...hawk Channel And Straits Of Florida From Ocean Reef To South Of Dry Tortugas...and The Extreme Southeastern Gulf Of Mexico...including The Florida Keys National Marine Sanctuary Seas Are Given As Significant Wave Height...which Is The Average Height Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Waves. Individual Waves May Be More Than Twice The Significant Wave Height. Gmz042>044-231545- Hawk Channel From Ocean Reef To Craig Key Out To The Reef- Hawk Channel From Craig Key To West End Of Seven Mile Bridge Out To The Reef- Hawk Channel From West End Of Seven Mile Bridge To Halfmoon Shoal Out To The Reef- 433 Am Est Wed Jan 23 2019
.small craft advisory in effect...
Today..East to southeast winds 20 to 25 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet. NEarshore waters very rough. Isolated showers.
Tonight..Southeast to south winds near 20 knots. Seas 4 to 5 feet. NEarshore waters rough. Scattered showers developing after midnight.
Thursday..South winds near 15 knots, becoming southwest to west and decreasing to 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet, subsiding to 2 to 3 feet in the afternoon. NEarshore waters a moderate chop, becoming a light to moderate chop. Widespread showers and scattered Thunderstorms.
Thursday night..Northwest winds near 15 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet. NEarshore waters a moderate chop. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms, then scattered showers after midnight.
Friday..North winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet, except 3 to 4 feet west of cosgrove shoal light. NEarshore waters choppy. Scattered showers.
Friday night through Sunday..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. NEarshore waters choppy. Isolated showers.
Sunday night..Northeast to east winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. NEarshore waters choppy. Scattered showers.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Stock Island, FL
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location: 24.57, -81.75     debug


Area Discussion for - Key West, FL
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Fxus62 kkey 230947
afdkey
area forecast discussion
national weather service key west fl
447 am est Wed jan 23 2019

Discussion
Currently
Under partly to mostly cloudy skies and east to southeast winds of
15 to 25 mph with occasional gusts to near 30 mph, temperatures
range from 70 to 75 degrees along the island chain.

Meanwhile, local radars are detecting widely scattered showers on
the waters from 10 to 60 nm south of cosgrove shoal light to
beyond dry tortugas. Elsewhere, isolated small showers have been
racing northwestward across the lower keys and the adjacent gulf
and atlantic waters, but with little if any measurable rainfall.

Surface wise, a very formidable and expansive area of high
pressure is anchored along the entire eastern seaboard and down
the florida peninsula and into the eastern gulf of mexico. Due to
a very tight pressure gradient, winds are east ranging from 20
knots at long key light and smith shoal light to 26 knots with
gusts near 30 knots at both molasses reef and alligator reef
light.

Short term (today through Friday night)
a highly amplified pattern will prevail over the next several
days, as an extremely deep trough over the nations midsection
equatorward to old mexico drives eastward through tonight, before
slowly lifting northward especially in the mid and upper levels
above 700 mb. Because of the transitory trough aloft, the hefty
western atlantic anticyclone anchored along the eastern seaboard
and the sunshine state will be shoved into the atlantic ocean on
Thursday. Subsequently, a predominate anticyclonic flow which has
been dominating our sensible weather elements will become a deep
cyclonic flow by Thursday morning. With that, a cold front will
migrate through the gulf of mexico and slide slowly across our
entire region Thursday afternoon and Thursday evening. Given
modest low level confluence and some mid left ascent, see no
reason to stray from categorical pops for Thursday, before some drier
and cooler air filters in Thursday night. For the end of this
week, the frontal boundary should get pushed into the bahamian
chain and across the island of cuba, so only low chance pops seem
reasonable for this time frame. But until then, only isolated pops
will be kept today through most of tonight. Temperatures will
remain about 5 degrees above normal through Thursday, before
below normal temperatures return Thursday night through Friday
night.

Long term (Saturday through Tuesday)
as mentioned yesterday, considerable uncertainty including timing
of a cold front draped across the archipelago of cuba lifting
back northward, as a southern stream short wave trough combined
with the right entrance region of the jet stream migrates eastward
through the gulf of mexico and across the sunshine state. Pending
on the timing and the amplitude of the flow aloft will determine
when, the extent and intensity of possible rainfall moving into
our entire region. Current thinking is despite changeable skies
and slightly below normal temperatures, the frontal boundary will
remain south of the florida keys for most of this weekend. With
that, have raised pops into the chance category for Sunday night
through Monday night, with a slight chance thereafter. However,
given the complexity of this overall pattern, please stay tuned
because changes are likely to be made to the current forecast.

Marine
Strong east to southeast winds will persist on most keys coastal
waters today and this evening, before slackening tonight and on
Thursday. Hence, a small craft advisory will likely remain in
effect for our entire marine district today and this evening,
before the aforementioned gradual abatement tonight and on
Thursday. Meanwhile, a cold front is expected to move across our
region on Thursday and clear our entire area late Thursday
evening, followed by freshening north to northeast winds into
Friday. In addition, isolated thunderstorms are likely to be occur
within the frontal boundary.

Aviation
Vfr conditions are expected to prevail at the key west and marathon
terminals with occasional ceilings above MVFR criteria, near 040-
060. Vicinity showers are possible early as well. Gusty easterly
winds will veer southeasterly and weaken a bit today.

Climate
In 1983, the daily record rainfall of 5.69 inches was recorded in
key west. Temperature records date back to 1871.

Preliminary point temps pops
Key west 80 72 78 63 10 30 80 50
marathon 83 73 80 61 10 30 80 50

Key watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Gm... Small craft advisory gmz031-032-34-035-042>044-052>055-072>075.

Public marine fire... Apa
aviation nowcasts... .Wlc
data collection... ... Sd
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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KYWF1 - 8724580 - Key West, FL 3 mi53 min E 12 G 18 72°F 69°F1021.1 hPa
SANF1 - Sand Key, FL 10 mi51 min 74°F 1020.4 hPa (-0.8)64°F
SMKF1 - Sombrero Key, FL 34 mi51 min 74°F 1021.1 hPa (+0.0)64°F
VCAF1 - 8723970 - Vaca Key, FL 35 mi53 min WSW 12 G 18 73°F 68°F1022.1 hPa

Wind History for Key West, FL
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NE5
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Key West International Airport, FL1 mi48 minE 1810.00 miA Few Clouds and Breezy73°F64°F76%1021.3 hPa
Key West Naval Air Station, FL3 mi48 minE 1810.00 miOvercast and Breezy72°F64°F76%1021.4 hPa

Wind History from EYW (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE6NE6E15
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1 day agoNE8NE9NE8NE10N11NE9NE10
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NE9N6N9NE10NE10NE13
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NE8NE8
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2 days agoW18
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N12N11
G17

Tide / Current Tables for Cow Key Channel, Florida
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Key West, Florida Current
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Key West
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:31 AM EST     -2.53 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 06:10 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 07:12 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:01 AM EST     1.69 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 09:17 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 12:02 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 03:07 PM EST     -2.14 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 06:06 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 06:41 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 09:05 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 09:14 PM EST     1.28 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.9-1.9-2.5-2.5-2-1.2-0.20.81.51.71.510-1-1.8-2.1-2-1.4-0.60.311.31.20.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Key West, FL (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Key West, FL
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.