Monday, January21, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Big Pine Key, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:11AMSunset 6:05PM Monday January 21, 2019 1:13 PM EST (18:13 UTC) Moonrise 6:49PMMoonset 7:33AM Illumination 99% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ032 Bayside And Gulf Side From Craig Key To West End Of Seven Mile Bridge- Gulf Of Mexico From West End Of Seven Mile Bridge To Halfmoon Shoal Out To 5 Fathoms- 956 Am Est Mon Jan 21 2019
.small craft advisory conditions are expected late tonight through Tuesday evening...
This afternoon..North to northeast winds 10 to 15 knots, increasing to near 15 knots late this afternoon. Seas 2 to 5 feet. NEarshore waters a light to moderate chop, becoming a moderate chop late this afternoon.
Tonight..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots this evening, becoming east 20 to 25 knots overnight. Seas 2 to 5 feet, except 4 to 6 feet west of the marquesas keys. NEarshore waters choppy, becoming very rough. Isolated showers after midnight.
Tuesday and Tuesday night..East winds near 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet, except 4 to 6 feet west of the marquesas keys. NEarshore waters rough. Isolated showers.
Wednesday..East to southeast winds 15 to 20 knots, becoming southeast. Seas 1 to 3 feet, except 3 to 5 feet west of the marquesas keys. NEarshore waters choppy. Isolated showers.
Wednesday night..Southeast to south winds near 15 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet. NEarshore waters a moderate chop. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms.
Thursday..South to southwest winds near 15 knots, becoming southwest to west late. Seas 1 to 3 feet. NEarshore waters a moderate chop. Numerous showers and scattered Thunderstorms.
Thursday night..Northwest to north winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet. NEarshore waters a light to moderate chop. Scattered showers.
Friday..North winds near 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. NEarshore waters a moderate chop. Isolated showers.
Friday night..North winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet, except 4 to 6 feet west of the marquesas keys. NEarshore waters choppy.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Big Pine Key, FL
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location: 24.73, -81.41     debug


Area Discussion for - Key West, FL
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Fxus62 kkey 211620
afdkey
area forecast discussion
national weather service key west fl
1120 am est Mon jan 21 2019

Short term (today-Thursday)
the main forecast issue through Wednesday will be a veering of
winds out of the east tonight, with windy conditions developing on
Tuesday and persisting into Wednesday. The next cold front is
expected to pass the keys on Thursday.

For today, a cool and dry flow of n-ne surface winds will come off
the florida peninsula and across the keys, with clear skies and a
relative lull in wind.

A strong surface high pressure center over ohio this morning will
move off the nc va coast on Tue evening. In response, our low-
level wind flow will become easterly by late tonight. Pressure
gradients on the southern periphery of this polar high will
bring windy conditions to the keys on Tue and wed. Land-based wind
gusts of 25-30 mph can be expected as easterly winds peak on tue
pm.

The strong low-level easterly flow will bring a quick return of
low-level moisture starting tonight. Surface dewpoints will rise
through the 60s on tue, reaching near 70f on wed. Given increasing
moisture in the boundary layer and subtle mesoscale features
within the strong easterly low-level flow, isolated to scattered
trade wind showers will return as soon as late tonight then
continue through wed. Best chance for a shower may actually come
on Tue am, as a little warm advection upglide adds some shallow
lift within the low-level moist layer.

The next cold front will cross the middle gulf on Wed evening,
then cross the keys on Thu pm. This timing is a few hours slower
than what models were depicting yesterday. Moderate instability is
forecast in the pre-frontal environment, and precipitable water
values should spike to near 1.8" in advance of the front. So would
expect a broken or solid line of convection to cross the keys
just in advance of the frontal passage. So the likely pops for thu
appear justified and will continue. With somewhat slower frontal
timing, may need to extend higher pops into Thu evening.

Long term (Friday-Monday)
the extended forecast period is looking increasingly wet and
unsettled. An increasing number of GFS ensemble members show
precip next weekend. Expect to be adding pops to the weekend
forecast.

Thursday's cold front will settle to our south on Friday, with our
driest period of post-frontal weather coming early Saturday. Warm
advection may being later Saturday over the top of the cooler air
in place, leading to a return of rain from the south.

In the big picture, next weekend will be marked by a deep and
broad upper trough over the eastern half of the u.S., extending
south from a polar vortex over james bay, canada. Within the fast
flow in the base of this deep broad trough, the GFS and ec
ensemble means reveal a significant shortwave that will round the
base and cross the northern gulf coast around Saturday and Sunday.

Significant negative height anomalies and strong jet stream flow
will be present over the entire gulf next weekend. Cyclogenesis is
expected in the coastal trough off the texas coast on Saturday.

Not all ensembles are on board, but the deterministic 00z ec
shows rapid deepening of the low as it tracks east across the
northern gulf and eventually north florida around Sunday. This is
at least consistent with its 12z solution from yesterday. This
solution would push a strong cold front and possibly a squall line
across the keys next Sunday.

Again, look for a major boost in pops for next weekend.

Marine The waters are currently in a relative lull in wind
which will continue through early this afternoon. This lull will
be fairly brief... Read on.

A strong 1039 mb surface high is centered over ohio this morning.

This high pressure cell will move eastward, eventually emerging
off the virgina and north carolina coasts late Tuesday. As the
keys coastal waters come under the influence of strong gradients
on its southern periphery, easterly winds will become strong late
tonight and Tuesday, with wind veering from northeast to east.

Strong easterlies will continue Tue night and wed, as the surface
high moves across the western atlantic to just north of bermuda.

Over the open waters in the middle of the straits, 10-11 foot
seas are expected on Tue afternoon and evening.

Winds will start to ease by Wed afternoon, as high pressure exits,
and a cold front moves off the texas coast and surges toward the
middle gulf. As this front progresses into the eastern gulf on wed
night, our winds will ease further and become southerly.

So the next cold frontal passage is expected on Thursday
afternoon. In its wake, breezes will shift northerly and become
fresh --- possibly strong --- on Friday.

Aviation The few strato-cumulus clouds lingering near the eyw
and mth terminals right now will soon give way to a completely
clear afternoon, as the low-level wind trajectory brings cool and
dry air down the florida peninsula and across the keys.

Low-level flow will become veer around through the northeast and
then the east late tonight, quickly returning low-level moisture
and clouds that remain just off the southeast florida coast and
over the gulf stream. Few-sct cloud coverage is expected this
evening, but then bkn cloud coverage should prevail late tonight
and Tuesday morning as moisture increases further and some weak
warm advection upglide gets underway over the keys. Could even
have some light showers or sprinkles in the vicinity of the
terminals after about 09z-10z. Showers are more likely over the
nearby waters of the straits, so have handled that with vcsh in
the 15z eyw amendment.

Climate
In 1971, the daily record low temperature of 46 degrees was recorded
in key west. Temperature records date back to 1872.

Key watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Gm... None.

Public marine fire... Haner
aviation nowcasts... .Haner
data collection... ... Bt
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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
VCAF1 - 8723970 - Vaca Key, FL 16 mi56 min S 7 G 8.9 55°F 67°F1024.7 hPa
SMKF1 - Sombrero Key, FL 17 mi84 min 54°F 1024.5 hPa (+0.8)47°F
KYWF1 - 8724580 - Key West, FL 24 mi56 min N 7 G 14 1024.9 hPa
LONF1 - Long Key, FL 30 mi74 min N 6 G 7 54°F 65°F1024.6 hPa (+0.4)42°F
SANF1 - Sand Key, FL 31 mi84 min 57°F 1025.1 hPa (+1.1)47°F
JKYF1 - Johnson Key, FL 35 mi74 min 63°F
PKYF1 - Peterson Key, FL 37 mi74 min 67°F
BKYF1 41 mi74 min 61°F
WWEF1 43 mi134 min 65°F
BOBF1 - Bob Allen, FL 44 mi74 min 66°F
CWAF1 44 mi134 min 63°F
GBTF1 - Garfield Bight, FL 44 mi74 min 61°F
SREF1 46 mi74 min 65°F
LRIF1 47 mi74 min 64°F
TBYF1 47 mi74 min 63°F
GBIF1 - Gunboat Island, FL 49 mi74 min 64°F

Wind History for Vaca Key, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Key West Naval Air Station, FL18 mi21 minNE 1010.00 miFair61°F48°F63%1024.5 hPa
The Florida Keys - Marathon International Airport, FL19 mi21 minN 810.00 miFair61°F45°F56%1024.1 hPa
Key West International Airport, FL22 mi21 minNNE 10 G 1610.00 miA Few Clouds62°F50°F65%1024.6 hPa

Wind History from NQX (wind in knots)
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1 day agoSE11SE11SE10E9SE9SE8SE11S9S11S12S13S13SW11SW13SW14SW15S16SW16W14NW13NW15NW18
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2 days agoNE6N9N6E7NE4NE4NE5NE5NE5NE5NE5NE6NE5NE4NE5NE4NE5E6E4SE10SE14SE14SE13SE11

Tide / Current Tables for Howe Key, south end, Harbor Channel, Florida
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Howe Key
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:17 AM EST     Full Moon
Mon -- 01:43 AM EST     1.52 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:11 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:32 AM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 08:35 AM EST     -0.42 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 03:13 PM EST     0.78 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:02 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 06:48 PM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 07:53 PM EST     0.06 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.31.51.51.41.10.70.2-0.2-0.4-0.4-0.3-00.20.50.70.80.70.60.30.10.10.20.40.8

Tide / Current Tables for No Name Key (northeast of), Florida Current
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No Name Key (northeast of)
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:17 AM EST     Full Moon
Mon -- 01:53 AM EST     -1.46 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 05:32 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 07:10 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:31 AM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 08:54 AM EST     1.23 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 11:54 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 02:35 PM EST     -1.14 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 06:02 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 06:03 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 06:48 PM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 09:00 PM EST     0.85 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 11:37 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.8-1.3-1.5-1.3-0.9-0.30.30.81.11.21.10.6-0.1-0.7-1.1-1.1-0.9-0.5-00.40.70.90.70.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Key West, FL (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Key West, FL
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.