Saturday, October21, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Big Pine Key, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:27AMSunset 6:55PM Saturday October 21, 2017 11:32 AM EDT (15:32 UTC) Moonrise 7:58AMMoonset 7:29PM Illumination 2% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ032 Bayside And Gulf Side From Craig Key To West End Of Seven Mile Bridge- Gulf Of Mexico From West End Of Seven Mile Bridge To Halfmoon Shoal Out To 5 Fathoms- 1024 Am Edt Sat Oct 21 2017
.small craft advisory in effect...
This afternoon..East winds 15 to 20 knots early, increasing to near 20 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet, building to 2 to 3 feet. NEarshore waters becoming rough. Isolated showers.
Tonight..East to southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas around 2 feet. NEarshore waters choppy. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms.
Sunday..East to southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas around 2 feet. NEarshore waters choppy. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms.
Sunday night..East to southeast winds near 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. NEarshore waters a moderate chop. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms.
Monday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas around 1 foot. NEarshore waters a light to moderate chop. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms.
Monday night..Southeast to south winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas around 1 foot. NEarshore waters a light to moderate chop. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 foot or less. NEarshore waters smooth to a light chop. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms.
Tuesday night..West to northwest winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming northwest and increasing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Seas less than 1 foot, building to around 1 foot. NEarshore waters smooth to a light chop, becoming a light to moderate chop. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms.
Wednesday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming north and increasing to 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Seas around 1 foot, building to 2 to 3 feet. NEarshore waters a light to moderate chop, becoming choppy. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms.
Wednesday night..North to northeast winds near 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. NEarshore waters a moderate chop.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Big Pine Key, FL
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location: 24.73, -81.41     debug


Area Discussion for - Key West, FL
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Fxus62 kkey 211424
afdkey
area forecast discussion
national weather service key west fl
1024 am edt Sat oct 21 2017

Discussion In the middle and upper levels(700-200 mb), latest
available satelitte imagery overlaid with model streamline
analysis as of 900 am depict a development significant long wave
trough over western canada and the conus, with its axis from
alberta down to new mexico. Downstream of that and conversely,
the axis of a full latitudinal ridge is oriented from near james
bay southwards to cuba, connecting to a upper high over the
central caribbean sea. As such, latest water vapor imagery still
detects lots of middle level dry air over south florida and the
keys.

At the surface and in the lower to middle levels, (surface to 700
mb), latest available satelitte imagery overlaid with marine and
land surface observations and analysis as of 900 am detail the
pertinent 1025 mb plus anticyclone and its axis draped from
eastern new york state to central north carolina. A trough axis,
and associated lower pressure area is south of the keys from
central cuba into the central caribbean sea. Hence the florida
keys are between these two system with a tight mslp gradient
resulting in fresh east breezes across the islands and surrounding
waters. The 12z sounding illustrated fresh east breezes up to
about 800 mb, slackening to gentle to moderate east breezes up to
600 mb, with a moderately moist lower troposphere and columnar
pwat at 1.63, but with abundant dry air above 750 mb.

Currently As of 900 am, radars and goes-16r channel 2 detected
isolated small low topped fast moving showers dotting the florida
keys and immediate surrounding waters, with scattered showers
confined to waters beyond 30 nm south of the islands. Temperatures
across the islands are in the lower 80s with dewpoints in the
lower to mid 70s. C-man stations are recording sustained east
winds near 20 knots, with islands sensors at 15 to 20 mph, except
15 mph in the upper keys.

Short term Rest of the day, latest available ECMWF and gfs
forecast soundings maintain pwat between 1.50 and 1.75 inches
through the rest of today. This will allow the drier air to work
its way down later this morning and keep only isolated shower
activity impacting the islands and immediate waters through the
afternoon. Do however, expect uptick of shower activity this
evening as models depict increasing moisture moving across. Made
adjustments to lower pops to isolated... 20%... And take out thunder
across these areas through the rest of the day. Left the
scattered shower coverages in the florida straits given turbulent
mixing over the warm gulf stream. Winds are mixing down attm,
given the aforementioned pressure pattern, with fresh breezes
continuing across the islands and surrounding waters, so ongoing
wind forecast is on track.

Marine Sca in effect across all of the waters for the rest of
the day and this evening with one exception. Only change was to
take out florida bay and put back into scec headline, still 15 to
20 knots, given island platforms in the upper keys still a little
low given that we are mixing down now. May still elect to
reinsert the SCA for the afternoon package over florida bay if
observations are more indicative.

Aviation Gusty easterly breezes are expected throughout the
forecast period at the island terminals, with sustained winds of
12 to 15 knots and gusts of 20 to 25 knots, however, this poses
no crosswind issues. Fast moving showers may produce very brief
episodes of sub-vfr conditions today Saturday. OtherwiseVFR
conditions will predominate.

Key watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Gm... Small craft advisory this afternoon for gmz032>035-
042>044-052>055-072>075.

Public marine... Futterman
aviation nowcasts... .11
upper air data collection... ... Dr
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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
VCAF1 - 8723970 - Vaca Key, FL 16 mi45 min E 13 G 19 85°F 82°F1016.9 hPa
KYWF1 - 8724580 - Key West, FL 24 mi45 min E 8.9 G 17 87°F 83°F1016.6 hPa
SANF1 - Sand Key, FL 31 mi43 min 83°F 1017.4 hPa (+1.8)73°F
JKYF1 - Johnson Key, FL 35 mi153 min 80°F
LRKF1 - Little Rabbit Key, FL 36 mi153 min 81°F
PKYF1 - Peterson Key, FL 37 mi93 min 82°F
BKYF1 41 mi93 min 80°F
WWEF1 43 mi153 min 81°F
BOBF1 - Bob Allen, FL 44 mi93 min 81°F
GBTF1 - Garfield Bight, FL 44 mi93 min 80°F
CWAF1 44 mi153 min 81°F
SREF1 46 mi93 min 83°F
LRIF1 47 mi93 min 82°F
TBYF1 47 mi93 min 81°F
GBIF1 - Gunboat Island, FL 49 mi93 min 82°F

Wind History for Vaca Key, FL
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NE12
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NE7
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N12
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G20
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G9
NE14
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NE6
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G13
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NE8

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Key West Naval Air Station, FL18 mi40 minE 1510.00 miMostly Cloudy84°F78°F82%1016.8 hPa
The Florida Keys - Marathon International Airport, FL19 mi40 minE 1010.00 miA Few Clouds87°F73°F65%1017 hPa
Key West International Airport, FL22 mi40 minE 14 G 1910.00 miA Few Clouds86°F75°F70%1017 hPa

Wind History from NQX (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE11
G19
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G24
E15E15E14E14NE12E13E13E11E13
G19
E13E11E12E9--E13E13E12E16E15
1 day agoN9--NE7NE7NE7NE8N9N8NE7NE10NE11NE11E11NE10NE9NE11
G17
NE9NE7--NE9NE9NE10
G19
NE10NE12
2 days agoE7SE11E9E7E9E7E5NE3NE7E6NE3NE3NE3NE4NE4NE5NE8NE8NE8NE7NE7NE9NE10NE8

Tide / Current Tables for Howe Key, south end, Harbor Channel, Florida
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Howe Key
Click for Map
Sat -- 03:38 AM EDT     1.60 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:26 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:57 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 10:05 AM EDT     0.16 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:35 PM EDT     1.31 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:53 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 08:28 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 09:52 PM EDT     0.46 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.91.21.41.61.61.51.20.90.50.30.20.20.40.70.91.21.31.31.210.70.50.50.6

Tide / Current Tables for No Name Key (northeast of), Florida Current
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No Name Key (northeast of)
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:32 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 03:26 AM EDT     -1.16 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 07:05 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 07:26 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:57 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 10:24 AM EDT     0.92 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 01:17 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 03:55 PM EDT     -0.99 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 06:52 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 07:35 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 08:28 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 10:27 PM EDT     0.63 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.3-0.3-0.8-1.1-1.1-0.9-0.5-00.40.70.90.90.70.2-0.4-0.9-1-0.9-0.6-0.20.20.50.60.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Key West, FL (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Key West, FL
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.