Thursday, November15, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Big Pine Key, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:42AMSunset 5:41PM Thursday November 15, 2018 4:18 PM EST (21:18 UTC) Moonrise 1:07PMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 53% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ032 Bayside And Gulf Side From Craig Key To West End Of Seven Mile Bridge- 1159 Am Est Thu Nov 15 2018
.small craft advisory in effect...
This afternoon..West to northwest winds 10 to 15 knots, shifting to northwest to north and increasing to 20 to 25 knots. Seas around 1 foot, building to 2 to 4 feet in the afternoon. NEarshore waters a light to moderate chop, becoming very rough. Isolated showers.
Tonight..North winds near 25 knots, with occasionally gusts to 30 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. NEarshore waters extremely rough. Isolated showers.
Friday..North winds 20 to 25 knots decreasing to near 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet in the afternoon. NEarshore waters very rough, becoming a moderate chop late.
Friday night..North to northeast winds near 15 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet. NEarshore waters a moderate chop. Isolated showers.
Saturday..North to northeast winds near 15 knots, decreasing to 10 to 15 knots. Seas subsiding to 1 to 2 feet. NEarshore waters a moderate chop, becoming a light to moderate chop. Isolated showers.
Saturday night..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. NEarshore waters a light to moderate chop. Isolated showers.
Sunday..Northeast to east winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. NEarshore waters a light to moderate chop. Isolated showers.
Sunday night..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. NEarshore waters a light to moderate chop. Isolated showers.
Monday and Monday night..North to northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. NEarshore waters a light to moderate chop. Isolated showers.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Big Pine Key, FL
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location: 24.73, -81.41     debug


Area Discussion for - Key West, FL
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Fxus62 kkey 152029
afdkey
area forecast discussion
national weather service key west fl
329 pm est Thu nov 15 2018

Discussion In the middle and upper levels( 700-200 mb), latest
available goes-r satellite imagery overlaid with model streamline
analysis as of 300 pm, depicts a developing powerful middle and
upper cyclone over the middle ohio valley, with an attendant ne-sw
cold trough axis that extends down to southern mexico. Downstream
of that, the aforementioned low pressure is assaulting the northwest
to southeast oriented ridge positioned from western new england
sse to well east of the carolina, and there is a tutt like feature
south of that is becoming more disheveled as it slows down east o
the northern bahamas.

At the surface and in the lower to mid levels(surface to 700 mb),
latest available goes-r satellite imagery overlaid with marine
and land surface observations and surface analysis, as of 300 pm,
detail low pressure over north carolina dragging a cold front
that is now bisecting the keys southward to inland over central
america..

Currently As of 300 pm, skies are partly cloudy to mostly sunny
across the islands and surrounding waters, but the leading edge of
lower clouds are approaching our western gulf waters zones from
the open gulf of mexico. Observations suggest SCA conditions have
arrived across the waters north, west and south of the lower
florida keys, with breezy conditions that have reached the middle
florida keys and surrounding waters, with near breezy conditions
across the upper florida keys and surrounding waters. Certainly the
surface heating and warm temperatures the freshening winds have
overcome the eastward expansion of these stronger breezes so far
through the mid afternoon hours. Temperatures have reached around
80 degrees across the islands, with dewpoints falling into the 60s
from the west, but are still 70 plus east of marathon attm.

Short term Tonight thru Sunday night. As the Sun starts
heading down late this afternoon and evening, the upstream
shallow cold thickness advection across the breadth of the gulf of
mexico should approach, resulting in a more rapid increase in the
winds and cloud coverage, as cloud coverage will fill in across
what are now some cloud- free areas that remain. It will become
windy with sustained 25 knot winds with gusts over 35 knots
expected. Low temperatures tonight should get down into the mid to
upper 60s. Also, given the cloudiness, isolated light showers are
possible, and may put down a few hundreths of an inch overnight
in a few spots at best. Will keep just a dime pop in the grids.

Tomorrow, the strongest winds will continue in the morning, but as
the lower level flow GOES across the bay and shallow nearshore
waters, it will cool these waters markedly, so winds will decrease
in the afternoon. Cloudiness should also be scattered out by
afternoon across the islands as well. High temperatures will only
reach the lower to mid 70s. Tomorrow night winds will surge a bit
again after sunset before lulling late. Lows should easily get
into the 60s again before winds veer a bit Saturday and Saturday
night as a boundary approaches from the south. A surface boundary
may move back to the north towards the keys during Saturday and
Saturday night, the remnants of the current cold frontal
boundary. This will occur as high pressure may build a bit more
during Sunday and Sunday night. Temperatures will return to near
normal for the weekend, with highs near 80 and lows in the lower
70s.

Long term Monday thru thanksgiving day, another surge is
expected during Monday, resulting in freshening winds Monday
through thanksgiving day. High temperatures are expected to remain
near normal levels, but lower level moisture will continue to be
elevated for this time of year, so given the mslp and decent
gradient, isolated showers will be possible thru these extended
periods as well.

Marine Sca conditions will develop late this afternoon before
sunset across all waters. SCA conditions expected thru about 16z
Friday. But by Friday afternoon, the shallower waters will have
cooled sufficiently, so for gmz031-032 and maybe gmz035, winds and
seas should come down dramatically during the afternoon, possibly
below scec. Another brief surge is possible Friday night, with
scec headlines likely across all waters. Scec conditions are
possible across portions of the waters Saturday morning, but winds
and seas a forecast to let down appreciably thereafter. Expect
moderate breezes through the rest of the weekend and early next
week, but scec headlines are certainly possible, especially across
the florida straits.

Expect mainlyVFR conditions through this evening, with periods of
MVFR ceilings tonight. These MVFR ceilings will move into the keys
and become more persistent after 16 00z associated with the
relatively cooler air moving over the still warm gulf waters. Strong
north winds behind the cold front will drive crosswind values near
20 knots today and tonight as wind directions will be normal to the
runways. Winds at fl010 will be 20 to 25 knots through 16 12z.

Climate On this date in 1916, a tropical storm that developed
in the central caribbean sea acquired extratropical
characteristics over the SE gulf of mexico and moved rapidly
northeast along the entire length of the keys. Sand key recorded
maximum sustained winds of 71 mph, while key west reported maximum
sustained winds of 52 mph with a minimum pressure reading of
29.70".

Preliminary point temps pops
Key west 78 70 73 68 10 10 10 10
marathon 80 69 73 67 10 10 10 10

Key watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Gm... Small craft advisory for all waters tonight gmz031>035-
042>044-052>055-072>075.

Public marine fire... Futterman
aviation nowcasts... .Chesser
data collection... ... Dr
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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
VCAF1 - 8723970 - Vaca Key, FL 16 mi30 min E 18 G 22 78°F 84°F1013.7 hPa
SMKF1 - Sombrero Key, FL 17 mi28 min WNW 18 G 22 78°F 1013.5 hPa (-0.8)71°F
KYWF1 - 8724580 - Key West, FL 24 mi30 min NNW 16 G 21
LONF1 - Long Key, FL 30 mi78 min NW 11 G 12 80°F 82°F1013.3 hPa (-1.7)73°F
SANF1 - Sand Key, FL 31 mi28 min 76°F 1015.1 hPa (-0.0)66°F
MUKF1 - Murray Key, FL 36 mi78 min 86°F
LRKF1 - Little Rabbit Key, FL 36 mi138 min 84°F
PKYF1 - Peterson Key, FL 37 mi78 min 83°F
BKYF1 41 mi78 min 84°F
WRBF1 - Whipray Basin, FL 43 mi78 min W 7 83°F
WWEF1 43 mi138 min 82°F
BOBF1 - Bob Allen, FL 44 mi78 min 85°F
CWAF1 44 mi138 min 84°F
GBTF1 - Garfield Bight, FL 44 mi78 min 85°F
SREF1 46 mi78 min 83°F
LRIF1 47 mi78 min 83°F
TBYF1 47 mi78 min 85°F
GBIF1 - Gunboat Island, FL 49 mi78 min 82°F

Wind History for Vaca Key, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Key West Naval Air Station, FL18 mi25 minNNW 18 G 2310.00 miPartly Cloudy and Breezy80°F66°F64%1014.6 hPa
The Florida Keys - Marathon International Airport, FL19 mi25 minNW 12 G 1910.00 miA Few Clouds79°F72°F79%1013.8 hPa
Key West International Airport, FL22 mi25 minN 15 G 2310.00 miPartly Cloudy81°F69°F67%1014.8 hPa

Wind History from NQX (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE9E10SE11SE10SE11SE11----------------NW4NW8N10N15N19
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1 day agoE5E5E6E6E9E7------E8--------E8E8SE9E10SE9E11E11E12E12SE10
2 days ago----------------SE13--SE12SE8--SE10SE9SE9S8SW10SE5S6S10S8S7SE5

Tide / Current Tables for Howe Key, south end, Harbor Channel, Florida
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Howe Key
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:39 AM EST     0.64 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:41 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:57 AM EST     1.27 feet High Tide
Thu -- 09:54 AM EST     First Quarter
Thu -- 01:07 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 02:27 PM EST     0.36 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:38 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 08:56 PM EST     0.98 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.70.60.70.811.11.21.31.21.110.80.60.40.40.40.50.60.70.9110.90.9

Tide / Current Tables for No Name Key (northeast of), Florida Current
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No Name Key (northeast of)
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:24 AM EST     0.24 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 04:23 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 06:41 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:15 AM EST     -0.67 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 09:54 AM EST     First Quarter
Thu -- 11:21 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 01:06 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 03:06 PM EST     0.45 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 05:28 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 05:38 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 08:01 PM EST     -0.59 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.10.20.20.20.1-0.2-0.5-0.7-0.6-0.5-0.3-0.10.10.30.40.40.40.2-0.2-0.5-0.6-0.5-0.4-0.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Key West, FL (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Key West, FL
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.