Wednesday, October18, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Duck Key, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:25AMSunset 6:58PM Wednesday October 18, 2017 4:34 PM EDT (20:34 UTC) Moonrise 5:15AMMoonset 5:32PM Illumination 2% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ043 Hawk Channel From Ocean Reef To Craig Key Out To The Reef- Hawk Channel From Craig Key To West End Of Seven Mile Bridge Out To The Reef- Hawk Channel From West End Of Seven Mile Bridge To Halfmoon Shoal Out To The Reef- 424 Pm Edt Wed Oct 18 2017
Tonight..Mostly east winds near 10 knots early, becoming northeast to east. Seas around 1 foot. NEarshore waters a light chop. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms this evening. Isolated showers thereafter.
Thursday and Thursday night..Northeast to east winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet. NEarshore waters a light to moderate chop. Isolated showers.
Friday and Friday night..Northeast to east winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. NEarshore waters choppy. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms.
Saturday..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. NEarshore waters choppy. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms.
Saturday night..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. NEarshore waters choppy. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms.
Sunday and Sunday night..East to southeast winds near 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. NEarshore waters a moderate chop. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms.
Monday and Monday night..East to southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet. NEarshore waters a light to moderate chop. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Duck Key, FL
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location: 24.79, -80.88     debug


Area Discussion for - Key West, FL
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Fxus62 kkey 181852
afdkey
area forecast discussion
national weather service key west fl
252 pm edt Wed oct 18 2017

Discussion In the middle and upper levels(700-200 mb), latest
available satelitte imagery overlaid with model streamline
analysis as of 200 pm depicts a fairly typical mid-fall pattern
which is progressive with low amplitude troughing and ridging
across much of the conus. Jetstream winds across the southern
conus and the gulf of mexico are zonal but not that strong
averaging about 50 knots at 250 mb. The axis of a shortwave
trough is positioned in the eastern gulf and continuing to
migrate eastward, however drier air in the mid-levels has been
seeping through in advance of the trough.

Currently At the surface and in the lower to middle levels,
(surface to 700 mb), latest available satelitte imagery overlaid
with marine and land surface observations and analysis as of 200
pm detail the center of a typical mid-autumnal sprawling near
1031 mb synoptic scale surface anticyclone centered over the
virginia piedmont. Well south of that, an east to west oriented
frontal boundary has become snarled across extreme south florida
and near the upper keys. South of that, hawk channel and the florida
straits are in a deep and convergent low to middle level flow,
hence supporting showers and isolated thunderstorms. Since overall
coverage of showers over the keys decreased on account of the
aforementioned mid-level drying, a late morning update had already
been performed to lower rain chances along the island chain.

Short term Tonight through Sunday night, keys weather pattern
will begin transitioning towards a typical mid fall pattern with
increasing breezes and slightly lower high and low temperatures,
helping to increase oscillation given the remaining high humidity.

Middle level drying will be moving in from the west by late
tonight, and it is significant enough such that only isolated
showers, 20%, will be retained in the grids for the islands for
tomorrow and tomorrow night, as water vapor imagery delineates
this drier air moves across, and the shortwave now over the
eastern gulf moves across florida this evening then flattens out
overnight. Additionally, a 1025-1030 mb surface high pressure
system now centered over central virginia, will remain in place
through tomorrow evening, before it intensifies slightly tomorrow
night to above 1030 mb, and then builds southwards Friday and
Friday night, increasing the local mslp gradient for those two
periods, with breezy conditions expected. The ridging remains
intact for Saturday and Saturday night, as a weak perturbation
moves across the keys from the bahamas.

Given the low level convergence, will advertise slightly above
normal rain chances, 30 percent for these 4 periods and
instability remains sufficient to support a few lightning
strikes. Behind the weak perturbation the flow become southeast
and breezes drop to gentle to moderate, however, forecast sounding
illustrate that pwat rises back from between 1.50 and 1.75 inches
up to near 2.00 inches for Sunday and Sunday night, so will
maintain slightly above normal chances for rain, 30 percent for
both periods

Long term Monday thru Wednesday, indications remain consistent
that a cold front will move southeast in tandem with a chilly
upper trough poised to move east Monday and Tuesday, then kicking
a cold front down the florida peninsula by Wednesday morning and
thru the keys Wednesday afternoon, which is consistent enough in
a few cycles to include a slight reduction in high temperatures
during wed, reaching only the lower 80s.

Marine Light to gentle breezes will become light overnight
backing to northeast, with light to gentle continuing Thursday and
Thursday night, but winds increase late Thursday night, becoming
moderate to fresh, with breezy conditions expected Friday and
Friday night through at least Saturday night. Hence, scec
conditions expected on all waters except the florida bay through
this period, except a small craft advisory is anticipated for the
florida straits for these two periods, but is still highly
possible again for both Saturday and Saturday night periods as
well. Winds and seas let down below headline or advisory criteria
late Sunday thru Monday night.

Aviation Vfr conditions will prevail overnight thru 12z, with
east to southeast winds averaging 8 to 11 knots with gusts over
15 knots, backing to east northeast after sunset, or about 24z,
and then decreasing to 7 to 10 knots. Best chance for showers
would have to be through the evening hours and tempos could be
issued but for now will use a vcsh.

Preliminary point temps pops
Key west 76 87 77 86 40 20 20 30
marathon 75 87 77 86 40 20 20 30

Key watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Gm... None.

Public marine fire... Futterman
aviation nowcasts... .Futterman
upper air data collection... ... Dr
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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PKYF1 - Peterson Key, FL 11 mi95 min 84°F
VCAF1 - 8723970 - Vaca Key, FL 13 mi47 min ESE 2.9 G 5.1 82°F 84°F1014.4 hPa
LRKF1 - Little Rabbit Key, FL 14 mi155 min 84°F
JKYF1 - Johnson Key, FL 18 mi155 min 83°F
BOBF1 - Bob Allen, FL 19 mi95 min 83°F
BKYF1 23 mi95 min 82°F
GBTF1 - Garfield Bight, FL 26 mi95 min 83°F
TBYF1 27 mi95 min 84°F
BNKF1 - Butternut Key, FL 28 mi95 min 83°F
MLRF1 - Molasses Reef, FL 31 mi35 min NNE 11 G 11 80°F 84°F1014.9 hPa (-2.1)
WWEF1 31 mi155 min 83°F
TRRF1 - Taylor River, FL 32 mi95 min 83°F
LRIF1 34 mi95 min 84°F
DKKF1 - Duck Key, FL 34 mi155 min 83°F
CWAF1 36 mi155 min 83°F
BWSF1 - Blackwater Sound, FL 36 mi155 min 84°F
NRRF1 38 mi95 min 83°F
LSNF1 - Long Sound, FL 38 mi95 min 84°F
LBSF1 - Little Blackwater, FL 38 mi155 min 84°F
HCEF1 - Highway Creek, FL 40 mi155 min 84°F
GBIF1 - Gunboat Island, FL 41 mi95 min 83°F
SREF1 41 mi95 min 84°F
TPEF1 - Tarpon Bay East, FL 43 mi155 min 82°F
CANF1 - Cane Patch, FL 44 mi155 min 84°F
HREF1 45 mi95 min 83°F
BDVF1 - Broad River, FL 48 mi95 min 83°F

Wind History for Vaca Key, FL
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
The Florida Keys - Marathon International Airport, FL10 mi42 minVar 410.00 miFair83°F72°F70%1014.5 hPa

Wind History from MTH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE8E10E8E9E8E6E6E7E8E8E5SE6E5NE4NE11NE9SE6E7E8E5NE5NE6SE64
1 day ago--N4E4SE4CalmE3E3E5E3E3CalmCalmCalmCalmE4E4E6E5E8E8E10E8E7E10
2 days agoE6E7E7E6NE6E4NE5E3E4E5E5E5NE5NE3NE3CalmNE4NE4N7N9NE8NE6NE3N5

Tide / Current Tables for Conch Key, eastern end, Florida
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Conch Key
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:25 AM EDT     0.22 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:14 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 07:23 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:47 AM EDT     1.75 feet High Tide
Wed -- 02:40 PM EDT     0.31 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:32 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 06:53 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:48 PM EDT     1.81 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.70.40.20.30.50.81.11.51.71.71.61.30.90.60.40.30.50.81.21.51.71.81.71.4

Tide / Current Tables for Long Key Viaduct, Florida Current
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Long Key Viaduct
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:48 AM EDT     -1.50 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 05:53 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 06:14 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 07:23 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:01 AM EDT     1.18 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 11:57 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 03:14 PM EDT     -1.50 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 06:21 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 06:31 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 06:53 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:12 PM EDT     1.00 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.4-1-1.4-1.5-1.2-0.70.10.71.11.21.10.6-0-0.7-1.3-1.5-1.4-0.9-0.30.40.810.90.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Key West, FL (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Key West, FL
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.