Friday, March22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Layton, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:22AMSunset 7:35PM Friday March 22, 2019 8:48 PM EDT (00:48 UTC) Moonrise 8:31PMMoonset 7:44AM Illumination 96% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ031 Florida Bay Including Barnes Sound, Blackwater Sound, And Buttonwood Sound- 432 Pm Edt Fri Mar 22 2019
Tonight..Variable winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming north and increasing to near 15 knots. Bay waters smooth, becoming a moderate chop.
Saturday..North to northeast winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming northeast to east in the afternoon. Bay waters a light to moderate chop.
Saturday night..Northeast to east winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming east 15 to 20 knots. Bay waters a light to moderate chop, becoming choppy.
Sunday..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Bay waters choppy. Isolated showers.
Sunday night..Northeast to east winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters a light to moderate chop. Isolated showers.
Monday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth to a light chop. Scattered showers.
Monday night..Northeast to east winds near 5 knots, becoming north. Bay waters smooth. Isolated showers.
Tuesday..Northwest to north winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming west to northwest. Bay waters smooth to a light chop.
Tuesday night..Northwest to north winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters a light to moderate chop.
Wednesday..North winds near 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop. Isolated showers.
Wednesday night..North to northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Bay waters choppy. Isolated showers.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Layton, FL
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location: 24.8, -80.65     debug


Area Discussion for - Key West, FL
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Fxus62 kkey 221907
afdkey
area forecast discussion
national weather service key west fl
307 pm edt Fri mar 22 2019

Discussion
Highlights of the next week will be a moderating trend from
Saturday through Monday, following a cool and crisp night tonight.

The next cold front is expected next Tuesday, with a reinforcing
front around Tuesday night or Wednesday. Breezy conditions are
possible next Thursday.

Currently
Northerly breezes continue to reinforce the drier and somewhat
cooler air mass over the florida keys. The dewpoint at mth
is 46f, which is pretty crisp by normally muggy keys standards.

The 12z key sounding showed a very dry precipitable water value of
0.55", and there was a sharp subsidence inversion near 4,900
feet. Satellite imagery shows clear skies throughout the keys. Air
temperatures of 70 to 74 degrees are common.

Short term (tonight-Monday)
under clear skies and with low dewpoints, low temperatures should
dip into the upper 50s over the upper keys, with lower 60s for
the middle and lower keys.

High pressure sliding east across the lower mississippi valley
this afternoon will move across the southeast states tonight and
Saturday. This will cause a veering of northerly winds to
northeasterly late tonight. Once the Sun comes up on Saturday,
this will start the modification of our dry and cool air mass. The
wind direction will become easterly on Saturday night, as surface
high pressure consolidates over north carolina and virginia
before moving offshore. Afternoon temperatures should finally
reach or exceed 80f over much of the keys on Sunday and Monday, as
air sourced from lower latitudes gets drawn back into the area.

The strongest advection of deeper moisture will occur on Sunday
night, as the 1000-700 mb layer mean wind direction becomes south
of due east during that time. Integrated precipitable water (pw)
values will surpass 1.25" around Sunday night, likely peaking
around Monday morning. This is a threshold above which a few weak
showers can form.

Long term (Monday night-Friday)
a southern stream upper trough will enter the southeast u.S. On
Monday afternoon, slowly amplifying and strengthening on Tuesday
and Wednesday. The trough axis will move off the northeast florida
coast on Wednesday.

At first this will push a northerly wind shift through keys on
Monday night. Northerly winds will strengthen on Tuesday as a more
genuine cold front passes and starts bringing in drier and
somewhat cooler air. At this point, shower chances will dip for
Tuesday after reaching a peak on Monday.

As the upper trough moves offshore on Wednesday, models are in
good agreement at developing a low center northeast of the
bahamas. On its backside, a reinforcing cold front will push south
through the keys. Cannot rule out a few light showers along the
frontal boundary. Behind the front, a further increase in north
wind is expected, and we step up the advection of cooler and
drier air into the forecast area. By Thursday, low pressure
northeast of the bahamas will deepen further while surface high
pressure nudges down east of the appalachians. Strong gradients
between the two will set up the possibility of strong northeast
breezes all the way into the keys on Thursday.

Low pressure will exit further out to sea next Friday, and winds
will ease. However, the air mass will continue to be a little
cooler than normal for late march.

Marine
Moderate northerly breezes will become northeast late tonight.

This evening's surge of winds off the florida peninsula will not
be as strong nor as widespread as last evening's surge. Winds will
start to veer around out of the northeast late tonight and then
easterly on Saturday, as transient high pressure passes to our
north.

Easterly breezes will freshen from mid-day Saturday through
Saturday night, as the high pressure center consolidates Saturday
night over north carolina and virginia and moves offshore on
Sunday. Easterlies will then ease over the course of Sunday and
Monday, as a trailing surface ridge slowly slides south down the
florida peninsula and our gradients weaken.

A cold front will arrive from the north on Tuesday, bring a turn
to northerly breezes. A stronger reinforcing cold front on
Tuesday night or Wednesday will freshen the northerly breezes
further. A turn to strong northeast breezes is possible next wed
night, as gradients tighten between a developing low center
northeast of the bahamas and a strong high pressure ridge
extending from new england down into the carolinas and georgia.

Aviation
Satellite loop shows that skies will become clear at eyw around
15z-16z (11 am-noon). Clear skies will then continue at both
island terminals through Saturday morning thanks to a dry air mass
and northerly winds. Northerly winds do pose the issue of cross-
winds on our east-west runways; speeds should be in the 8-12 knot
range. Otherwise, have attempted to show temporal detail in the
tafs to show minor wind shifts between west and east of due
north.

Climate
In 1996, the daily record low temperature of 53 degrees was
recorded in key west. Temperature records date back to 1872.

Preliminary point temps pops
Key west 64 77 68 80 0 0 - 10
marathon 64 78 70 81 0 0 - 10

Key watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Gm... None.

Public marine fire... Haner
aviation nowcasts... .Haner
data collection... ... Sd
visit us on the web at weather.Gov key
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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PKYF1 - Peterson Key, FL 10 mi108 min 74°F
LRKF1 - Little Rabbit Key, FL 16 mi168 min 73°F
BOBF1 - Bob Allen, FL 16 mi108 min 74°F
WRBF1 - Whipray Basin, FL 19 mi108 min W 12 74°F
MLRF1 - Molasses Reef, FL 21 mi48 min WNW 6 G 7 70°F 77°F1018.6 hPa (+0.8)
BNKF1 - Butternut Key, FL 21 mi108 min 73°F
JKYF1 - Johnson Key, FL 22 mi108 min 72°F
BKYF1 24 mi168 min 76°F
TBYF1 25 mi168 min 74°F
VCAF1 - 8723970 - Vaca Key, FL 25 mi30 min 69°F 73°F1018.6 hPa
LMDF1 - Little Madeira, FL 26 mi108 min 74°F
MUKF1 - Murray Key, FL 26 mi108 min 73°F
GBTF1 - Garfield Bight, FL 27 mi108 min 74°F
SMKF1 - Sombrero Key, FL 27 mi58 min 69°F 1018 hPa (-0.0)49°F
BWSF1 - Blackwater Sound, FL 28 mi168 min 74°F
DKKF1 - Duck Key, FL 28 mi168 min 74°F
TRRF1 - Taylor River, FL 29 mi108 min 78°F
TCVF1 - Trout Cove, FL 29 mi168 min 74°F
LBSF1 - Little Blackwater, FL 31 mi168 min 74°F
LSNF1 - Long Sound, FL 32 mi108 min 74°F
HCEF1 - Highway Creek, FL 33 mi168 min 75°F
WWEF1 34 mi168 min 74°F
LRIF1 36 mi108 min 75°F
CWAF1 39 mi168 min 74°F
NRRF1 40 mi168 min 74°F
SREF1 45 mi168 min 73°F
TPEF1 - Tarpon Bay East, FL 45 mi168 min 75°F
GBIF1 - Gunboat Island, FL 45 mi108 min 73°F
CANF1 - Cane Patch, FL 46 mi108 min 74°F
HREF1 48 mi168 min 72°F

Wind History for Vaca Key, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
The Florida Keys - Marathon International Airport, FL22 mi55 minNW 810.00 miFair70°F48°F47%1018.2 hPa

Wind History from MTH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr--NW12
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1 day agoNW10N7N9N9N8N8N8N8N8N8N8N8N7N6N8NW8NW10NW14
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NE13NE11NE12NE8NE7N11N11N10N10N10N10N10N8NW6N9NW8NW9NW9NW7NW9

Tide / Current Tables for Alligator Reef, Hawk Channel, Florida
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Long Key, east of drawbridge, Florida Current
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Long Key
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:35 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 04:33 AM EDT     -1.80 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 07:25 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:48 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 08:44 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 10:43 AM EDT     1.51 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 01:47 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 04:47 PM EDT     -1.80 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 07:35 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 08:01 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 09:32 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 11:07 PM EDT     1.67 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.30.6-0.4-1.3-1.7-1.8-1.4-0.70.211.41.51.20.7-0.2-1.1-1.7-1.8-1.5-0.9-00.81.41.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Key West, FL (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Miami, FL
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.