Saturday, January19, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Layton, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:07AMSunset 5:57PM Saturday January 19, 2019 10:18 PM EST (03:18 UTC) Moonrise 4:32PMMoonset 5:27AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ031 Florida Bay Including Barnes Sound, Blackwater Sound, And Buttonwood Sound- 447 Pm Est Sat Jan 19 2019
.small craft advisory conditions are expected Sunday and Sunday night...
Tonight..Southeast winds near 10 knots, becoming southwest near 15 knots after midnight. Bay waters a light chop, becoming a moderate chop. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms after midnight.
Sunday..Southwest to west winds 15 to 20 knots, becoming west to northwest 20 to 25 knots in the afternoon. Bay waters choppy, becoming very rough. Numerous showers and isolated Thunderstorms in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon.
Sunday night..Northwest to north winds 20 to 25 knots. Bay waters very rough.
Monday..North winds 15 to 20 knots, becoming northeast 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Bay waters choppy, becoming a light to moderate chop.
Monday night..Northeast winds increasing to 15 to 20 knots. Bay waters becoming choppy.
Tuesday..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Bay waters choppy.
Tuesday night..East to southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Bay waters choppy. Isolated showers.
Wednesday..East to southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Bay waters choppy. Isolated showers.
Wednesday night..Southeast to south winds 15 to 20 knots. Bay waters choppy. Isolated showers.
Thursday..South to southwest winds near 15 knots. Bay waters a moderate chop. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms.
Thursday night..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth to a light chop. Numerous showers and isolated Thunderstorms.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Layton, FL
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location: 24.8, -80.65     debug


Area Discussion for - Key West, FL
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Fxus62 kkey 192013
afdkey
area forecast discussion
national weather service key west fl
313 pm est Sat jan 19 2019

Short term
Main focus of the forecast is with weather that will result from
the passage of a strong cold front on Sunday morning. The front
is now crossing the middle gulf, trailing from a 995 mb parent low
that is moving e-ne across middle tennessee. The front will pass the
eastern gulf tonight. Cold frontal passage is expected near dry
tortugas and the deep southeast gulf waters around 12z Sunday (7
am), the lower keys around 15z (10 am), exiting off the upper keys
around 16z- 17z (11 am-noon). Deep layer southwesterlies
preceding the front will quickly increase atmospheric moisture,
with precipitable water values forecast to peak near 1.75" in an
axis immediately preceding the front. The air mass will also
become marginally to moderately unstable, with CAPE values peaking
near 800-1000 j kg over the keys, 1500+ j kg over the straits,
and less than 800 j kg over gulfside waters. This will support a
broken line of thunderstorms along or just in advance of the
front. Shear profiles in the pre-frontal convective environment
will be nearly unidirectional with modest speed shear, so gusty
winds, brief downpours, and a few lightning strikes will be the
main impact of convection. The line of showers and thunderstorms
will be moving east at a pretty good clip, so storms will be quick
to move through.

Following the front, a sharp wind shift is expected, with
northwesterlies developing. Will become windy, with land-based
wind gust around 30 mph expected as wind speeds peak on Sunday
afternoon. Otherwise, rain and showers should end pretty quickly,
except perhaps for some sprinkles that fall out of cold air
strato-cumulus clouds streaming from the gulf across the lower
keys.

The coldest night will occur on Sunday night, with quite a dry air
mass and clear skies spreading down the peninsula and across the
keys. Surface dewpoints will fall into the 40s, and low
temperatures on Monday morning will be in the 50s throughout the
keys.

Surface winds will be quick to flip northeasterly on Monday
morning, veering further to easterly or southeasterly on Tuesday.

This is in response to a meridional surface ridge axis up and down
the mississippi valley late Sunday, which will consolidate into a
strong 1035 mb surface high center near the outer banks on Tuesday
afternoon. Once winds become easterly on Tuesday, the strong
pressure gradient on the periphery of this high center will lead
to windy conditions over the keys and the gradual return of a
milder maritime air mass. Wind gusts of 25 to 30 mph will be
common on Tue and wed, especially as easterlies peak on Tue pm.

Isolated to scattered showers will return to the forecast on
Monday night and Tuesday, as surface-based moisture deepens to
about 850 mb and the strong easterlies help a few showers develop
in confluent cloud lines that orient parallel to the low-level
flow.

Long term The next front is expected to cross the keys around
next Thursday pm. Ensembles members still vary on timing, but
there is growing consensus with the Thu pm timing. A tropical
maritime air mass will precede the front, with pw values
approaching 2" in advance of the front. Continue to have isolated
thunder in the forecast next Thu and Thu night. Once the front
passes, models are somewhat slow pushing it past the straits of
florida, so have had to hang on to low pops into next weekend.

Marine
Marine hazards will emerge tonight and Sunday in response to the
passage of a strong cold front across the florida keys on Sunday
morning. Preceding the front tonight, southerly winds will pick up
and gradually become southwesterly. Winds speeds will pick up as
the front approaches, with small craft advisories likely for a few
zones as early as tonight. The front itself will first reach the
dry tortugas and deep waters of the southeast gulf around 7 am,
cross the lower keys waters around 10 am, the exit into the
straits off the upper keys by noon. The front itself will be
accompanied by a broken line of showers and thunderstorms,
containing gusty winds brief visibility reductions in transient
downpours. The front will be followed by a sharp shift to
northwest wind, with sustained speeds near 25 knots over nearly
all the waters on Sunday afternoon. Wave heights will peak in the
10-12 foot range early Sunday evening over the deep gulf waters
and the lower straits of florida due to strong northwest winds.

Winds will ease on Sunday night and bottom out as a moderate
northerly breeze on Monday morning.

A strong surface high center will consolidate near the north
carolina coast on Tuesday. Strengthening gradients on the
periphery of this feature will drive an increase to strong
easterly winds over the waters for Tue and wed. Marine MOS shows
speeds rising above 20 knots early Tue morning for all but long
key.

The next cold front is expected around next Thursday pm, though
there are still differences with timing the next cold front.

Aviation
Vfr and dry conditions will prevail through this evening at the eyw
and mth terminals. Most few to scattered cloud bases should be near
fl030-035 and spreading near fl060 through sunset. Southeast winds
will continue 7-12 knots through at least 20 03z. Winds will turn
south after that time, gradually increasing to near 15 knots with
gusts at or above 20 knots by 20 08z. Showers and isolated
thunderstorms will begin to increase in coverage from 20 08z-10z,
with some bringing MVFR ceilings, brief ifr visibilities and west
wind gusts possibly near 30 knots. After the line of showers and
possible thunderstorms passes, sustained winds will increase to 15
to 20 knots out of the west. After 20 15z, MVFR ceilings may
linger as showers decrease, with winds becoming northwest 15 to 20
knots with frequent gusts near 25 knots.

Climate
On this date in 1997, the daily record low temperature of 48f was
last recorded at key west. Temperature records date back to 1872.

Key watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Gm... None.

Public marine fire... Haner
aviation nowcasts... .Jr
data collection... ... Dr
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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PKYF1 - Peterson Key, FL 10 mi79 min 70°F
LONF1 - Long Key, FL 12 mi79 min SSE 11 G 11 74°F 70°F1014.1 hPa (-0.6)66°F
BOBF1 - Bob Allen, FL 16 mi79 min 70°F
BNKF1 - Butternut Key, FL 21 mi79 min 71°F
MLRF1 - Molasses Reef, FL 21 mi79 min S 14
JKYF1 - Johnson Key, FL 22 mi79 min 71°F
BKYF1 24 mi79 min 74°F
VCAF1 - 8723970 - Vaca Key, FL 25 mi31 min W 8 G 9.9 74°F 71°F1014.4 hPa
TBYF1 25 mi79 min 75°F
LMDF1 - Little Madeira, FL 26 mi79 min 72°F
GBTF1 - Garfield Bight, FL 27 mi79 min 74°F
SMKF1 - Sombrero Key, FL 27 mi29 min 75°F 1013.8 hPa (+0.0)67°F
TRRF1 - Taylor River, FL 29 mi79 min 73°F
LSNF1 - Long Sound, FL 32 mi79 min 71°F
WWEF1 34 mi139 min 71°F
LRIF1 36 mi79 min 70°F
CWAF1 39 mi139 min 70°F
NRRF1 40 mi79 min 70°F
SREF1 45 mi79 min 69°F
GBIF1 - Gunboat Island, FL 45 mi79 min 69°F
CANF1 - Cane Patch, FL 46 mi79 min 69°F
HREF1 48 mi79 min 69°F

Wind History for Vaca Key, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
The Florida Keys - Marathon International Airport, FL22 mi26 minVar 610.00 miFair76°F66°F74%1014.2 hPa

Wind History from MTH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE4NE5NE5NE5NE5NE6NE4SE7SE9SE9
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1 day agoN6N5N5N5N4N7N7NE7N8NE7NE8NE7NE9N7NE9NE7NE8NE6E6E6E4E4N4N5
2 days agoN10N11N12NE12NE11NE9NE10N9N9N6NE10NE9NE10NE10NE9N7NE8NE8NE8NE4NE3NE4N4N5

Tide / Current Tables for Alligator Reef, Hawk Channel, Florida
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Long Key, east of drawbridge, Florida Current
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Long Key
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:47 AM EST     -1.73 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 04:10 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 05:27 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 07:09 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:30 AM EST     1.67 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 10:53 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 01:38 PM EST     -1.32 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 04:33 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 04:44 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 05:58 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 07:28 PM EST     1.11 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 10:20 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-1.6-1.7-1.5-0.9-0.20.71.31.61.61.30.7-0.1-0.8-1.2-1.3-1-0.50.20.81.11.10.80.2-0.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Key West, FL (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Miami, FL
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.