Thursday, March23, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Islandia, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 7:07AMSunset 7:23PM Thursday March 23, 2017 12:27 PM EDT (16:27 UTC) Moonrise 2:57AMMoonset 2:15PM Illumination 16% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 26 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Islandia, FL
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location: 25, -77.5     debug

Area Discussion for - Miami-South Florida, FL
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Fxus62 kmfl 231423
area forecast discussion
national weather service miami fl
1023 am edt Thu mar 23 2017

Update Surface analysis this morning showed a large high
pressure cell dominating most of the eastern CONUS with a cold
front draped east to west over central florida. Closer to our
region, south of this feature, conditions have been rather stable.

However, as the morning progresses, instability associated with
the aforementioned front will play a greater role, along with
pulses of positive vorticity advection. The modified 12z mfl
sounding showed CAPE around 1200 j/kg, a 500 mb temp of -14c, and
a freezing level slightly below 12,000 ft msl. Diurnal afternoon
heating, combined with cold air aloft, will steepen the lapse
rate. Strong updrafts may support isolated severe storms with hail
up to the size of quarters and gusty/erratic winds. This lines up
well with spcs marginal risk over our entire cwa. As the front
passes south into the florida straights this evening, convection
should begin to dwindle. A tight surface pressure gradient will
generate breezy east northeast winds tonight, mainly affecting the
east coast metro and adjacent atlantic coast beaches.

Prev discussion /issued 821 am edt Thu mar 23 2017/

a cold front dropping southward across the region through this
afternoon will bring increasing clouds with a chance of showers
and thunderstorms. Between 23/1500z-1800z, vcts conds may develop
with sct025 and bkn050, then expect decreasing convective
activity by late evening. Small hail and gusty/erratic winds will
be possible the storms as they move southward along the peninsula.

Behind the front, east northeast winds will increase to around
15-17 kt with occasional higher gusts. At kapf, ene winds will
be weaker, only around 12 kt. Breezy conditions should continue
through the night along the east coast TAF sites with vcsh.

Prev discussion... /issued 411 am edt Thu mar 23 2017/

today-tonight: weakening frontal boundary making it's way south and
west across central florida early this morning, generating a few
showers and storms, mainly across the waters. Analysis shows that
the deeper moisture associated with the boundary is lagging
behind slightly, and while the boundary and wind shift are likely
to arrive into south florida early morning, the deeper moisture
may lag more towards this afternoon.

Despite this, enough low-level moisture, along with weak
overrunning/isentropic lift will allow scattered showers to spread
from northeast to southwest across the region through the morning
hours. The best rain chances will be late morning into this
afternoon, when the deeper moisture and best lift combine.

Upper level vort maxes crossing the peninsula this morning have
brought in much colder temperatures aloft, with RUC analysis showing
500mb temps around -14 to -16c. With another vort MAX expected to
cool temps a degree or two, and daytime temperatures still expected
to climb into the upper 70s and low 80s, mid level lapse rates will
be quite steep today. This instability means that a few storms can't
be ruled out, especially along the east coast and lake okeechobee
region. It also sets up a favorable environment for a few strong
storms with hail, and SPC has placed most of south florida under a
marginal risk for today. Overall rainfall amounts are expected to
generally be light, but a few areas could see a nice soaking
rainfall of around a half an inch, helping the ongoing drought

Conditions to become breezy to windy late in the day as east-
northeast wind surge arrives behind the boundary, with the
strongest winds along the east coast. Overnight lows will be in
the around 60 over the interior and gulf coast and mid-upper 60s
for the east coast.

Friday: boundary moves south of the region and washes out as strong
high pressure builds to the north. The tight pressure gradient will
lead to an breezy to windy day, with wind gusts of 20-30 mph common
at times. Lingering showers along the east coast will also

Highs on Friday behind the front will be slightly cooler, ranging
from the mid 70s to around 80. Low temperatures will generally be in
the 60s, with a few upper 50s readings in the interior.

Saturday-Wednesday: models have shifted westwards with the cut-off
low that had been forecast to meander well east of the bahamas. This
results in a weaker and shorter lived upper level ridge moving
across the fl peninsula on Saturday. The weaker ridge in turn allows
the next system moving across the tn/ms valley to dig a little
further south before the ridge rebuilds Monday and Tuesday.

Generally easterly flow will prevail through the period, remaining
breezy on Saturday before the surface gradient weakens Sunday and
Monday. Periodic showers are expected through the period off the
atlantic as easterly flow continues to bring in low level
moisture. Some enhancement in coverage is possible during the
weekend as vort maxes rotate through the region, and again on
Tuesday as another weak front approaches.

Temperatures will be near to slightly above normal for the long term

Marine... Boating conditions will begin deteriorating late this
morning over the atlantic waters, and into this evening over the
gulf as a weak frontal boundary moves across the region. The
boundary will also bring scattered to numerous showers, with the
potential for a few storms, especially over the local atlantic

Expect east-northeast winds 20-25kts over much of the local waters,
including biscayne bay, through the overnight hours with seas
building to 9-11ft in the gulf stream. Winds diminish into Friday,
but hazardous marine conditions for the atlantic waters are
expected to continue through Saturday. A small craft advisory is
currently in effect for the atlantic waters from midday, and the
gulf waters starting this evening.

Beach forecast... East-northeasterly wind surge arrives early this
afternoon with frontal boundary, leading to a rapid increase in the
rip current threat along all the atlantic beaches. There is a high
risk of rip currents for all the east coast beaches today and into
the weekend.

Fire weather... Light to moderate showers are expected to overspread
much of the region through the day with a frontal boundary, along
with a threat for isolated thunderstorms. A few showers may also
linger along the east coast into Friday, with relative humidity
values expected to remain above critical levels through Saturday.

Gusty east-northeast winds will also arrive with the boundary late
today, leading to very good to excellent dispersions across much of
the region into Saturday.

Preliminary point temps/pops
West palm beach 78 69 78 68 / 60 40 20 10
fort lauderdale 79 69 78 70 / 60 50 30 20
miami 81 68 79 69 / 50 40 40 20
naples 80 62 82 62 / 40 20 10 0

Mfl watches/warnings/advisories
Fl... High rip current risk through Friday evening for flz168-172-173.

Am... Small craft advisory until 8 am edt Saturday for amz630-650-651-

Gm... Small craft advisory from 8 pm this evening to 11 am edt Friday
for gmz656-657-676.

Update... 27/jt
discussion... 88/alm
marine... 88/alm
aviation... 27/jt
beach forecast... 88/alm
fire weather... 88/alm

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Homestead Air Force Base, FL156 mi89 minENE 310.00 miFair77°F61°F58%1022.3 hPa

Wind History from HST (wind in knots)
Last 24hr3NE6W4E7E6SE7S5S4S3S3SW4SW4SW3CalmW4CalmNW3CalmNW3CalmN5NE3E3NE8
1 day agoE7E7
2 days agoNE11NE11NE14NE13NE13NE12

Tide / Current Tables for Nassau, New Providence Island, Bahamas
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Thu -- 03:56 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:54 AM EDT     2.84 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:10 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:12 AM EDT     0.62 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:14 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 05:21 PM EDT     2.56 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:22 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 11:20 PM EDT     0.54 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Fresh Creek, Andros Island, Bahamas
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Fresh Creek
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Thu -- 03:58 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:56 AM EDT     3.03 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:11 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:52 AM EDT     1.16 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:17 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 05:20 PM EDT     2.86 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:23 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 11:00 PM EDT     0.98 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Miami-South Florida, FL (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Miami, FL
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.