Monday, December18, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Islandia, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:47AMSunset 5:25PM Monday December 18, 2017 4:07 AM EST (09:07 UTC) Moonrise 6:57AMMoonset 5:59PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 0 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Islandia, FL
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location: 25, -77.5     debug

Area Discussion for - Miami-South Florida, FL
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Fxus62 kmfl 180749
area forecast discussion
national weather service miami fl
249 am est Mon dec 18 2017

High pressure continues to dominate the pattern through the
weekend. The surface high, which was to our north, is building to
the southeast. There is also a strong 500mb ridge at 590+ dm over
the region. This has kept the area mostly dry. However, a weak
convergence line has developed over the atlantic waters, allowing
a weak line of showers to develop. The hrrr does show this
transitioning to the north over the next few hours. It also show a
few isolated showers sprinkles along the atlantic coastal areas.

Any showers should be brief with little accumulation.

In the interior, especially west of the lake, fog has developed
this morning, despite the high clouds. This is probably due to the
cooler temps already in place, as well as dew points around 60, as
well as the wind decoupling and dropping to zero mph. The hrrr
indicated it may remain around until after sunrise, and possibly
around 15z. A dense fog advisory has been issued for interior
collier county, as well as glades and hendry counties tonight.

There is a small chance the fog may also develop over interior
palm beach county as well, but there are no reports, and cloud
cover is hampering satellite analysis attm. Fog may also occur
tomorrow night in similar areas. By the end of the week, the flow
turns more southwesterly, which has the potential to lead to more
widespread fog formation, if conditions are right.

The dry, warm pattern looks tom continue through the weekend, with
possible isolated sprinkle periodically, mainly along the coast
and in the lake region. However, the chances are too low to
mention in the forecast, other than a slight chance early Sunday
morning. Temperatures are forecast to be on the warm side through
the weekend, with highs in the 80's and lows in the 60's to around

Over the weekend, the GFS shows a strong 500 mb trough digs over
the high plains, and a surface low moves over the great lakes.

This low will drag a cold front into the southern us Friday night
into Saturday. The front will begin to stall across north florida
as the low pulls quickly to the north northeast. This still
remains far enough away to keep south florida with a dry forecast
this weekend. However, by the beginning of the week, a surface low
is progged to develop along the boundary, off the carolina coast.

This would slowly push the boundary to the southeast. The upper
level trough persists through this time frame, and slowly moves
eastward, with a negative tilt, for the beginning of next week.

This will bring instability to the region for the beginning of the
week, however, models are not giving any significant chance for
rain with the frontal passage. The GFS does show that some showers
may be possible over the atlantic waters.

Also, looking at the ecmwf, it is not as progressive with the
500mb trough, keeping it much further west, and the cold front
well to the north of the region. Given this uncertainty, and lack
of consensus, as well as GFS showing mostly dry passage, have kept
pops mostly below 15%, except for a slight chance Sunday morning
along the atlantic coast of palm beach and northern broward

High pressure will keep mostly dry conditions across the region
under an easterly flow. An isolated shower sprinkle cant be
totally ruled out, but more the exception then a rule. Seas are
forecast to be generally 1 to 3 feet in the atlantic, although
seas east of key largo may increase to around 4 feet at times. For
the atlantic waters, the wind is forecast to be easterly today
through Wednesday morning across the atlantic waters at around 8
to 12 kts, with period increase to around 15 kts off the southern
miami dade coast. The wind is then forecast to become more
southerly to southwesterly for the latter half of the week. There
remains a moderate risk of rip currents for most of the south
florida atlantic beaches for today and tomorrow.

For the gulf waters, the wind looks to be more variable today,
becoming easterly up to 10 kts tomorrow, then follows a similar
trend as the atlantic waters. There is a minimal risk of rip
currents for the gulf beaches.

Light and variable winds will prevail for the TAF sites through
the remainder of the night with vcfg possible in the interior.

Dry conditions are expected, with the exception of a few showers
east of kpbi. Bases of the few sct low clouds tonight will
continue layered from 3500 to 5500 ft agl. East southeast winds
are forecast to increase to near 10 kt across the peninsula aft
18 1500z, then diminish this evening.

Preliminary point temps pops
West palm beach 81 68 80 68 20 10 0 10
fort lauderdale 81 71 81 70 10 10 0 10
miami 82 70 82 69 10 10 0 10
naples 83 67 84 65 0 10 0 0

Mfl watches warnings advisories
Fl... Dense fog advisory until 8 am est this morning for flz063-066-

Am... None.

Gm... None.

Discussion... 13
marine... 13
aviation... 27 jt

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Homestead Air Reserve Base, FL156 mi71 minN 010.00 miFair67°F67°F100%1022.3 hPa

Wind History from HST (wind in knots)
Last 24hrNE5E5E4E5E7E7E9E12E12E9E8E7E4NE3NE4NE5E4CalmNE4NE3CalmE4CalmCalm
1 day agoCalmN3N3N3N5NE5NE8E8NE10NE10NE11NE10NE7NE6N5NE4NE7NE6NE6NE5E4E5E5NE5
2 days agoN3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3E3SE5S6S6SE6S4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW3CalmN3

Tide / Current Tables for Nassau, New Providence Island, Bahamas
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Mon -- 01:22 AM EST     0.19 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 01:31 AM EST     New Moon
Mon -- 06:48 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 06:55 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 07:48 AM EST     3.12 feet High Tide
Mon -- 02:09 PM EST     0.11 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:23 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 05:58 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 08:11 PM EST     2.49 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Fresh Creek, Andros Island, Bahamas
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Fresh Creek
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Mon -- 01:03 AM EST     0.64 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 01:31 AM EST     New Moon
Mon -- 06:49 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 06:56 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 07:51 AM EST     3.35 feet High Tide
Mon -- 01:56 PM EST     0.74 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:26 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 06:01 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 08:08 PM EST     2.82 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Miami-South Florida, FL (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Miami, FL
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.