Friday, May25, 2018

Marine Weather and Tides
Islandia, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 6:19AMSunset 7:53PM Friday May 25, 2018 2:57 PM EDT (18:57 UTC) Moonrise 3:28PMMoonset 2:54AM Illumination 83% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Islandia, FL
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location: 25, -77.5     debug

Area Discussion for - Miami-South Florida, FL
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Fxus62 kmfl 251809
area forecast discussion
national weather service miami fl
209 pm edt Fri may 25 2018

Widespread showers have enveloped south florida today, so tempo
groups in place through the evening. There may be a brief lull
tonight before more widespread showers move in after 8-12z
Saturday (handled with shra). Isolated thunderstorms are possible,
but aside from after daybreak Saturday in miami-dade terminals,
probability of lightning is too low to warrant mention in the
tafs. On and off cig restrictions are expected through this
evening associated with the heavier showers, but more widespread
sub-vfr CIGS are likely late tonight and through the day Sunday as
the atmosphere continues to near toward complete saturation. Ese
wind around 10 kt through sunset, then 5-10 kt overnight,
increasing to 15 kt or so by Saturday afternoon.

Flood watch has been posted effective 12z Saturday through 0z
Monday. Widespread rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches, with locally
much higher amounts, are expected, and this may lead to flooding.

Additional information on this watch and subsequent forecast
updates will come later later this afternoon, but for now, see
miaffamfl for information.

Prev discussion issued 1121 am edt Fri may 25 2018
update 2...

the tropical storm probabilities on newly formed subtropical
storm alberto are 15 percent or less for all of south florida.

Therefore, no updates are required at this time to the forecast
for south florida.

Update 2... 54 bnb
prev discussion... Issued 1001 am edt Fri may 25 2018

scattered showers have moved inland with sea breeze from the
atlantic. Expect coverage to increase through the day, especially
across the western interior, where locally heavy rainfall is most
likely. No significant changes in the forecast this morning.

Convective chances appear quite low based on 12z RAOB analysis.

The tropical disturbance east of the yucatan peninsula now has a
90 percent chance of tropical formation in the next 48 hours, and
this feature, the main player in our holiday weekend weather, will
continue to be closely monitored.

Prev discussion... Issued 347 am edt Fri may 25 2018

primary forecast concern continues to be the probable development of
a tropical cyclone in the central or eastern gulf of mexico over the
next few days. The national hurricane center currently indicates a
70 percent chance of tropical cyclone formation within 48 hours
and a 90 percent chance of development within five days.

Some important differences remain among the numerical models and
ensembles regarding the eventual track and inner structure of the
cyclone, and how it interacts with a developing shortwave trough
over the western gulf, but there is general agreement in the
disturbance initially moving N or nne out of the yucatan channel
later tonight into the eastern or central gulf, before bending
northwestward as it moves into the northern or northeastern gulf
Sunday. The closest approach of the low to the SW fl gulf coast
will likely be Saturday night or Sunday morning.

A deep, long southerly fetch will set up over south florida
tonight into the weekend, between the developing cyclone over the
gulf and the ridge of high pressure over the western atlantic.

This plume will be characterized by anomalously high atmospheric
moisture content, with precipitable water values in the 2 to 2.4
inch range (90th-plus percentile of the climatological range for
late may). This will promote efficient warm rain processes and the
potential for excessive rainfall rates. Bands of heavy rain that
train over the same location will be a concern for significant
street flooding and may even threaten some structures in
vulnerable low-lying areas. Given the uncertainty in the location
and timing of the heaviest rain, it is still too early for a
flood watch to be issued, though one may be required in later

A low level jet of 35 to 45 kts is also likely to set up over s
fl late Saturday into Sunday. Forecast hodographs show a strong
anti-clockwise loop in the lower troposphere, with 0-1 km sreh
potentially exceeding 200 m2 s2 at times, along with sufficient
cape of 500-1000 j kg. Therefore, isolated tornadoes will be a
concern with any discrete convective elements during that time

On Monday, the cyclone's forward motion slows or stalls over the
deep south, keeping S fl in the southerly plume, so high chances
for showers and thunderstorms will continue with ongoing
potential for locally heavy rain.

By mid-week, models begin to diverge on how quickly to kick out
or fill the surface cyclone, with some indication upper troughing
may continue into the gulf with a west atlantic high remaining in
place. This may continue the pattern of moist southerly flow and
elevated rain chances, but given the uncertainty, pops are trended
gradually toward climatology by later in the week.


with the gulf low moving south to north just west of our gulf
waters, southeasterly winds over the local waters will increase
steadily tonight through Saturday over the local waters, peaking
out Saturday night into Sunday. There is the potential for
frequent gusts near or above tropical storm force in the offshore
gulf waters. Hazardous seas may peak near 10 feet by Saturday
night in the offshore gulf waters and near 7 feet in the atlantic

Beach forecast...

the risk of rip currents will increase at both the atlantic
and gulf beaches through the weekend.

Preliminary point temps pops
West palm beach 73 80 74 83 50 80 60 80
fort lauderdale 75 80 76 83 60 80 70 80
miami 74 80 76 83 70 80 70 80
naples 71 81 73 85 70 90 70 80

Mfl watches warnings advisories
Fl... Flood watch from Saturday morning through Sunday evening for

Am... None.

Gm... None.

Update... 23 sk
discussion... 22 ks
marine... 22 ks
aviation... 23 sk
beach forecast... 22 ks

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Homestead Air Reserve Base, FL156 mi61 minESE 710.00 miLight Rain79°F73°F85%1015.9 hPa

Wind History from HST (wind in knots)
Last 24hrE11E9E7E6NE6E6CalmE5E6E6E6E5E4E5E5E6E5E6SE7E9E5SE4SE9SE7
1 day agoE11E11E9E10E9E8E3E4NE5E5E4E4E3E3E3E4E3E4E6E9E7E9E9E11
2 days agoE13E15

Tide / Current Tables for Nassau, New Providence Island, Bahamas
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Fri -- 03:53 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 05:32 AM EDT     3.29 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:20 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 11:38 AM EDT     0.70 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:26 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:03 PM EDT     3.60 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:51 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Fresh Creek, Andros Island, Bahamas
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Fresh Creek
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Fri -- 03:55 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 05:35 AM EDT     3.09 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:23 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 11:24 AM EDT     0.74 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:28 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:03 PM EDT     3.45 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:53 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Miami-South Florida, FL (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Miami, FL
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.