Saturday, February24, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
"Islamorada, Village of Islands ", FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:47AMSunset 6:22PM Saturday February 24, 2018 10:31 AM EST (15:31 UTC) Moonrise 1:04PMMoonset 1:50AM Illumination 69% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ042 Hawk Channel From Ocean Reef To Craig Key Out To The Reef- Hawk Channel From Craig Key To West End Of Seven Mile Bridge Out To The Reef- Hawk Channel From West End Of Seven Mile Bridge To Halfmoon Shoal Out To The Reef- 1025 Am Est Sat Feb 24 2018
.small craft should exercise caution until winds subside...
This afternoon..East to southeast winds 15 to 20 knots, decreasing to 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet, subsiding to 1 to 3 feet late. NEarshore waters choppy, becoming a moderate chop late. Isolated showers.
Tonight..East to southeast winds near 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. NEarshore waters a moderate chop. Isolated showers.
Sunday and Sunday night..East to southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. NEarshore waters a light to moderate chop. Isolated showers.
Monday..East to southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet. NEarshore waters a light to moderate chop. Isolated showers.
Monday night..East winds near 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. NEarshore waters a light chop. Isolated showers.
Tuesday..Northeast to east winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. NEarshore waters smooth to a light chop. Isolated showers.
Tuesday night..East winds near 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. NEarshore waters a light chop. Isolated showers.
Wednesday..East to southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 1 foot. NEarshore waters smooth to a light chop.
Wednesday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. NEarshore waters a light to moderate chop.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near "Islamorada, Village of Islands ", FL
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location: 25, -80.53     debug


Area Discussion for - Miami-South Florida, FL
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Fxus62 kmfl 241112
afdmfl
area forecast discussion
national weather service miami fl
612 am est Sat feb 24 2018

Aviation
Isolated light showers continue to advect on shore from over the
atlantic. Breezy east southeast winds will persist through the
remainder of this morning, mainly 10-13 kt. Aft 24 1400z, expect
winds to increase around 15 kt with occasional higher gusts.

These winds will begin to weaken as evening approaches. Sct bkn
low clouds should be present through the period along the eastern
portion of the peninsula with bases 2000-3500 ft agl.

Prev discussion issued 318 am est Sat feb 24 2018
discussion...

the ECMWF and the GFS in good agreement with the bermuda high
hanging on for the weekend, then weakening the beginning of next
week. This will keep the east to southeast wind across the region,
and showers periodically moving onshore this weekend. The GFS is
showing some CAPE across the region, less than 1000 joules, but
nam model soundings are showing an inversion starting just over
800mb persisting through the weekend, which should hinder
convective development, and thus, only showers are in the forecast
at this time. This will need to be re-evaluated with new
soundings and model updates to see if the cap may erode enough to
be broken and allow thunderstorm development.

By Monday, a cold front is progged to approach the area. The
models are in agreement with the front weakening as it does, and
possibly even dissipating over the area. The tail and looks to
make it to around the lake, maybe palm beach county. The tail end
may get lifted back to the north as high pressure builds over
bermuda by the middle of the week. Really, the front does not look
to make a significant impact on the region, except perhaps a wind
direction change. Models are not even indicating any significant
enhancement for showers attm.

As the front lifts away for the latter half of next week, models
are indicating clearing skies, and a couple of dry days. Dew
points remain in the 60s and high temperatures continue to run in
the low to mid 80s for the week.

By the end of the week, a stronger cold front approaches the area.

Again, the ECMWF and the GFS are in pretty good agreement with
this. The front is progged to move through the entire CWA by
Saturday morning. Both models are indicating this should be a dry
passage. But, it does look to bring somewhat cooler temperatures
for next weekend, with the highs in the 70s for most of the cwa.

The dew points look to be the most significant change, with the
current forecast calling for them to drop into the 40s and 50s by
Saturday morning.

Marine...

a bermuda high is forecast to maintain the east to southeast wind
for most of the weekend. The high should begin to weaken on
Sunday, ahead of a weak cold front that will move into the area on
Monday. The wind is forecast to gradually relax over the next
couple of days. Showers will continue to be possible, especially
over the atlantic waters through the middle of the week. Seas are
forecast to subside to generally 2 foot or less by the end of the
weekend, and persist that way through the middle of the week. For
the latter half, seas are currently forecast to build back to 4
to 5 feet in the gulf stream.

Beach forecast...

the bermuda high is forecast to maintain the breezy east wind
through the day. This will bring a high risk of rip currents to
all the south florida atlantic beaches today. The wind is forecast
to relax beginning tonight, into tomorrow morning, possibly
reducing the risk to a moderate risk for Sunday.

Preliminary point temps pops
West palm beach 81 72 84 72 40 20 20 10
fort lauderdale 80 74 81 73 40 20 20 20
miami 83 73 84 73 30 20 20 10
naples 85 68 85 67 20 10 10 10

Mfl watches warnings advisories
Fl... High rip current risk through this evening for flz168-172-173.

Am... None.

Gm... None.

Discussion... 13
marine... 13
aviation... 27 jt
beach forecast... 13


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MLRF1 - Molasses Reef, FL 8 mi31 min ESE 15 G 17 76°F 78°F1023.2 hPa (+0.9)
LONF1 - Long Key, FL 21 mi31 min ESE 13 76°F 1022.6 hPa68°F
VCAF1 - 8723970 - Vaca Key, FL 37 mi43 min E 7 G 9.9 77°F 76°F1022.5 hPa
FWYF1 - Fowey Rocks, FL 47 mi31 min E 19 G 22 75°F 76°F1024 hPa (+0.9)

Wind History for Vaca Key, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
The Florida Keys - Marathon International Airport, FL33 mi38 minE 710.00 miOvercast78°F66°F69%1022.6 hPa

Wind History from MTH (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Tavernier Creek, Hwy. 1 bridge, Hawk Channel, Florida
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Tavernier Creek
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:50 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 03:28 AM EST     1.21 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:49 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:44 AM EST     0.11 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 01:04 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 03:39 PM EST     1.18 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:21 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 10:14 PM EST     -0.14 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.50.811.21.21.10.80.60.30.10.10.20.40.711.11.21.10.80.50.2-0-0.1-0.1

Tide / Current Tables for Long Key, east of drawbridge, Florida Current
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Long Key
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:26 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 01:50 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 03:39 AM EST     1.05 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 06:50 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:18 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 09:55 AM EST     -0.81 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 01:05 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 01:08 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 03:43 PM EST     0.64 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 06:22 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 06:44 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 10:06 PM EST     -1.30 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.20.30.8110.90.60.2-0.4-0.7-0.8-0.7-0.5-0.10.30.60.60.50.3-0.1-0.7-1.1-1.3-1.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Miami-South Florida, FL (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Miami, FL
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.