Tuesday, November13, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
"Islamorada, Village of Islands ", FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:37AMSunset 5:35PM Tuesday November 13, 2018 1:53 AM EST (06:53 UTC) Moonrise 11:42AMMoonset 10:44PM Illumination 27% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ042 Hawk Channel From Ocean Reef To Craig Key Out To The Reef- Hawk Channel From Craig Key To West End Of Seven Mile Bridge Out To The Reef- Hawk Channel From West End Of Seven Mile Bridge To Halfmoon Shoal Out To The Reef- 1022 Pm Est Mon Nov 12 2018
Overnight..East to southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet. NEarshore waters a light to moderate chop. Scattered showers.
Tuesday..Southeast winds near 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. NEarshore waters a light chop. Scattered showers.
Tuesday night through Wednesday night..Southeast winds near 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. NEarshore waters a light chop. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms.
Thursday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming northwest to north and increasing to 15 to 20 knots late. Seas 1 to 3 feet, building to 2 to 4 feet. NEarshore waters a light to moderate chop, becoming choppy late. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms.
Thursday night..North winds near 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. NEarshore waters choppy. Scattered showers.
Friday..North winds near 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. NEarshore waters choppy. Isolated showers.
Friday night..North winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. NEarshore waters a choppy. Isolated showers.
Saturday and Saturday night..North to northeast winds near 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. NEarshore waters a moderate chop. Isolated showers.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near "Islamorada, Village of Islands ", FL
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location: 25, -80.53     debug


Area Discussion for - Miami-South Florida, FL
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Fxus62 kmfl 130547
afdmfl
area forecast discussion
national weather service miami fl
1247 am est Tue nov 13 2018

Aviation
Models are indicating periods of shra and tsra through the taf
period across much of south florida. There is some uncertainty
with the tsra, but enough to have prob30 groups for all but apf
for most of the day tomorrow. Models are currently showing the
best chances along the east coast, and in the lake region. While
vfr is forecast, brief ifr may be possible under any +shra or
+tsra that occur, especially in the interior areas.

Prev discussion issued 703 pm est Mon nov 12 2018
update...

only showers observed on radar this evening remain over the
atlantic waters, with a small cell moving into south beach and
vicinity. Otherwise, benign weather conditons prevail across
soflo. A few showers are possible overnight, but most should favor
the coastal waters. Current forecast package remains on track and
no significant changes are required for this update.

Prev discussion... Issued 401 pm est Mon nov 12 2018
discussion...

short term (tonight-Wednesday)... A stalled, decaying frontal
boundary stretches across the region, stretching as far west as
the texas gulf coast. Model solutions show some cyclogenesis
developing in the western gulf of mexico and lifting NE during the
next couple of days. This sfc low is forcing the front to migrate
northward, with warm air advection filtering into soflo as S se
flow establishes. However, the warm air mass remains relatively
dry, and suppressing rain chances this evening.

Winds aloft will gradually veer to the SW and bring increasing
mid level moisture overnight and into Tuesday morning. Best rain
chances will continue to favor the lake okeechobee region.

Models push the aforementioned sfc low quickly out into the ne
states by Tuesday and decoupling from the frontal boundary, which
will remain lingering along the gulf coast and the florida
panhandle. Pressure gradients become a little tighter ahead of the
front, bringing modest sfc S SW winds across the peninsula. This
overall synoptic scenario will translate into slightly warmer
temperatures and increasing atmospheric instability. Thus, expect
increasing shower and thunderstorm activity, especially along sea
breeze boundaries in the afternoon. But overall chances of rain
remain in the low-end scattered. The warmer air mass in place
may help in pushing afternoon highs to near record values on
Tuesday... Possibly around 90.

For Wednesday, latest model guidance has become less aggressive
in bringing the front right across the area at that time, and are
keeping soflo under the continuing warm, S SW wind regime. This
will keep rain chances in the 30-40 percent range.

Long term (Thursday-Sunday)... Uncertainty remains in the long
range forecast as it is still not clear of exactly when and or
how far south the lingering front to the north is going to push
later in the week. Euro shows the bulk of the weather associated
with the FROPA quickly sweeping across soflo and into the keys
Thursday afternoon and evening, while gfs FROPA starts early in
the morning. Either way, both models show better agreement in
keeping the front's potential impacts as mostly rain with scattered
thunderstorms through Thursday evening.

By Friday, a much drier airmass should bring cooler air advection
from the north in the wake of the frontal passage with afternoon
highs in the mid-upper 70s by Saturday.

Marine... Se winds continue as the weak front across the region
gradually lifts north. 15-20kt winds are possible overnight,
especially in the atlantic coastal waters, along with 2-3ft seas
in the gulf and 3-5ft seas in the atlantic.

Winds veer southerly on Tuesday ahead of the next storm system
moving through the gulf, with speeds diminishing as the front
reaches into the area. Differences in the timing and placement of
the front adds considerable uncertainty to the forecast for
Wednesday onwards, however the generally trend has been for a slower
and weaker influence.

Periods of showers are expected through the remainder of the
weekend. Better rain chances, and the threat for storms will
increase with the next front by Tuesday.

Climate... Warm temperatures and near record highs are possible
the next two days, especially along the east coast.

Tuesday's forecast and records
forecast record year
naples 87 91 in 1948
west palm beach 88 88 in 1992
fort lauderdale 87 87 in 1992
miami 88 88 in 2015
Wednesday's forecast and records
forecast record year
naples 86 91 in 1993
west palm beach 86 87 in 1948
fort lauderdale 85 87 in 1981
miami 86 88 in 1941

Preliminary point temps pops
West palm beach 86 74 86 73 40 30 30 40
fort lauderdale 86 77 86 76 40 30 30 40
miami 86 74 86 74 40 30 30 40
naples 86 71 86 70 30 30 40 50

Mfl watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Am... None.

Gm... None.

Aviation... 13


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BNKF1 - Butternut Key, FL 6 mi174 min 81°F
MLRF1 - Molasses Reef, FL 8 mi54 min ESE 8.9 G 11 81°F 81°F1016.8 hPa (-0.7)
BOBF1 - Bob Allen, FL 8 mi174 min 81°F
WRBF1 - Whipray Basin, FL 12 mi174 min E 4.1 81°F
PKYF1 - Peterson Key, FL 13 mi174 min 81°F
LMDF1 - Little Madeira, FL 13 mi174 min 82°F
TBYF1 15 mi174 min 83°F
TRRF1 - Taylor River, FL 16 mi174 min 82°F
LSNF1 - Long Sound, FL 17 mi174 min 82°F
BKYF1 18 mi174 min 82°F
GBTF1 - Garfield Bight, FL 18 mi174 min 83°F
LONF1 - Long Key, FL 21 mi54 min ESE 11 G 12 81°F 81°F1016.1 hPa (-0.8)74°F
MUKF1 - Murray Key, FL 23 mi174 min 80°F
LRIF1 28 mi174 min 83°F
NRRF1 31 mi174 min 81°F
CANF1 - Cane Patch, FL 36 mi174 min 80°F
VCAF1 - 8723970 - Vaca Key, FL 37 mi36 min WSW 6 G 9.9 81°F 82°F1016 hPa
GBIF1 - Gunboat Island, FL 37 mi174 min 81°F
SREF1 39 mi174 min 82°F
SMKF1 - Sombrero Key, FL 40 mi64 min E 16 G 20 81°F 1015.5 hPa (-0.6)73°F
HREF1 41 mi174 min 80°F
BDVF1 - Broad River, FL 41 mi174 min 81°F
FWYF1 - Fowey Rocks, FL 47 mi54 min SE 18 G 20 81°F 80°F1017.1 hPa (-1.2)
WIWF1 - Willy Willy, FL 49 mi174 min 81°F

Wind History for Vaca Key, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
The Florida Keys - Marathon International Airport, FL33 mi61 minSE 10 G 1510.00 miFair80°F73°F82%1016 hPa

Wind History from MTH (wind in knots)
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2 days agoE4E4NE4NE4E3CalmE4N4N7N6NE5N5N5NW3N4NW4N4N4N5N5N5NE6NE5E4

Tide / Current Tables for Tavernier Creek, Hwy. 1 bridge, Hawk Channel, Florida
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Tavernier Creek
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:11 AM EST     1.44 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:32 AM EST     0.39 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:37 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:41 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 12:52 PM EST     1.53 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:35 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 07:14 PM EST     0.55 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 10:44 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.41.41.210.80.50.40.40.50.811.31.51.51.51.310.80.60.60.60.70.91.1

Tide / Current Tables for Long Key, east of drawbridge, Florida Current
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Long Key
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:37 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 05:52 AM EST     -1.06 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 06:37 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:20 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 11:42 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 12:14 PM EST     0.90 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 04:05 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 05:36 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 06:40 PM EST     -0.76 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 10:05 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 10:46 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.60.40.2-0.1-0.6-1-1.1-0.9-0.6-0.20.30.70.90.90.70.40-0.4-0.7-0.8-0.6-0.4-00.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Miami-South Florida, FL (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Miami, FL
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.