Sunday, April22, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
"Islamorada, Village of Islands ", FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.

Sunrise 6:50AMSunset 7:49PM Sunday April 22, 2018 2:19 PM EDT (18:19 UTC) Moonrise 11:50AMMoonset 12:38AM Illumination 49% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ042 Hawk Channel From Ocean Reef To Craig Key Out To The Reef- Hawk Channel From Craig Key To West End Of Seven Mile Bridge Out To The Reef- Hawk Channel From West End Of Seven Mile Bridge To Halfmoon Shoal Out To The Reef- 1016 Am Edt Sun Apr 22 2018
This afternoon..East to southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas around 2 feet. NEarshore waters a light to moderate chop. Isolated showers.
Tonight..East to southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. NEarshore waters a light to moderate chop. Isolated showers.
Monday through Tuesday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet. NEarshore waters a light to moderate chop. Isolated showers.
Tuesday night..West to northwest winds near 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. NEarshore waters a light hop. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms.
Wednesday..Northwest winds near 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. NEarshore waters a light chop. Isolated showers.
Wednesday night..Northwest winds near 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. NEarshore waters a light to moderate chop. Isolated showers.
Thursday and Thursday night..West to northwest winds near 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. NEarshore waters a light chop. Isolated showers.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near "Islamorada, Village of Islands ", FL
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location: 25, -80.53     debug


Area Discussion for - Miami-South Florida, FL
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Fxus62 kmfl 221723
afdmfl
area forecast discussion
national weather service miami fl
123 pm edt Sun apr 22 2018

Aviation
Scattered showers and thunderstorms across south florida this
afternoon will create brief times of subVFR conditions. Easterly
flow will start to veer more to the southeast today. At kapf, a
gulf sea breeze will develop this afternoon. Winds will be between
10 and 15 knots, however, they could gust higher in showers and
thunderstorms.

Prev discussion issued 1006 am edt Sun apr 22 2018
update...

no changes needed to be made to the previous forecast as
everything looks on track. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
will continue to develop across the region today. The best chance
of thunderstorms will shift from the east coast metro areas to the
western interior sections this afternoon in the predominant
southeasterly flow. The greatest threats with these storms will be
lightning, locally heavy downpours and brief gusty winds.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue through tonight
especially across the east coast metro areas.

Prev discussion... Issued 730 am edt Sun apr 22 2018
aviation...

scattered showers and thunderstorms across south florida today
will create brief times of subVFR conditions. Easterly flow will
start to veer more to the southeast today. At kapf, a gulf sea
breeze will develop this afternoon. Winds will be between 10 and
15 knots, however, they could gust higher in showers and
thunderstorms.

Prev discussion... Issued 333 am edt Sun apr 22 2018
discussion...

a relatively active pattern is now in place. A vertically-stacked
upper low is over the southern plains early this morning, with
our region in a downstream area of upper diffluence. At the
surface, high pressure over the tidewater region and a low over
the ozarks is yielding moderate southeast flow over south florida.

This has also established a modest feed of tropical moisture with
pw values near or over 1.5 inches per the nassau 00z sounding and
goes-16 total pw imagery. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms over the atlantic waters have been moving inland
over the east coast metro area early this morning.

Today and tonight, scattered to occasionally numerous showers and
isolated thunderstorms will continue along the moisture axis from
the atlantic into the east coast. During the afternoon, the best
chances for numerous showers and a few thunderstorms will focus
over the western interior and lake okeechobee region in the
predominant SE flow. The lowest pops will be in the far southern
peninsula bordering florida bay.

Monday, flow veers a bit to sse, becoming ssw over western
sections later as a surface front approaches. This will favor
numerous showers and a few thunderstorms over the lake okechobee
region shifting toward the palm beaches Monday night as flow veers
around to ssw, with scattered to sometimes numerous showers
elsewhere.

The greatest threats associated with convection today through
Monday night are likely to be lightning, brief gusty winds, and
locally heavy downpours. Most areas north of an immokalee to
hollywood line will likely end up with a general 1-2 inches of
rain, but some isolated amounts over 3-4 inches will be possible
just about anywhere, which may bring brief periods of flooding to
streets and the usual vulnerable locations. Right now expecting
any flood issues to remain local and mostly advisory-level.

Tuesday into Tuesday night, the low kicks out into the tennessee
valley, pushing a surface front across the northeastern gulf
toward the area. Models indicate CAPE increasing into the
2500-3000 j kg range, confluent southerly flow, bulk shear of
30-40 knots in the lowest 6km, differential cva increasing with
height, and some modestly cool air aloft, all arguing a few
thunderstorms Tuesday may be strong. Greatest coverage over the
northern part of the area closest to the front, with more
scattered activity further south. Lack of any low-level jet and
increasing detachment of the front from the better upper forcing
lifting away from the region will serve as mitigating factors for
any widespread severe thunderstorms.

Wednesday, the decaying front pushes out of the area bringing
drier air into the region and bringing calmer weather. Later in
the week into next weekend, several disturbances translate
southeastward around the back of the eastern us mean longwave
trough. This will drive a couple of reinforcing fronts toward the
region. Will not get fancy with the pops as the timing of these
fronts and quality of moisture availability will likely change
with future model runs.

Marine...

moderate to fresh southeast winds continue over the local waters
today. The winds and waves likely peaked out early this morning
over the gulf stream, so for now the small craft advisory will be
allowed to expire later this morning. Still, small craft should
exercise caution through Tuesday, particularly over the open
atlantic waters, due to winds of 15 to 20 knots. Scattered
thunderstorms will also pose a hazard to mariners in all the local
waters, bringing locally higher winds and waves through Tuesday
night. As a front approaches, winds will veer around to southeast
later today, southwest by Tuesday, and then around to northwest
Tuesday night following its passage.

Aviation...

passing showers, and possibly thunderstorms, through the forecast
period will create brief bouts of sub-vfr conditions. Generally
easterly flow will veer a bit more south of east today. Apf will
see the influence of a gulf sea breeze today as well. Variable
gustiness possible around convection today.

Beach forecast...

a high risk of rip currents will continue today at the palm beaches
due to persistent moderate southeasterly winds, with a moderate risk
at the rest of the atlantic beaches. At least a moderate risk will
continue for east coast beaches Monday.

Preliminary point temps pops
West palm beach 72 83 71 84 60 50 60 70
fort lauderdale 74 83 73 84 50 50 40 50
miami 73 86 73 87 40 40 40 50
naples 70 85 71 84 30 30 30 40

Mfl watches warnings advisories
Fl... High rip current risk until 8 pm edt this evening for flz168.

Am... None.

Gm... None.

Aviation... 55 cwc


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BNKF1 - Butternut Key, FL 6 mi80 min 81°F
BOBF1 - Bob Allen, FL 8 mi80 min 83°F
WRBF1 - Whipray Basin, FL 12 mi140 min ENE 8.9 81°F
PKYF1 - Peterson Key, FL 13 mi80 min 82°F
DKKF1 - Duck Key, FL 13 mi140 min 81°F
LMDF1 - Little Madeira, FL 13 mi80 min 83°F
BWSF1 - Blackwater Sound, FL 13 mi140 min 82°F
TBYF1 15 mi80 min 84°F
TCVF1 - Trout Cove, FL 15 mi140 min 82°F
TRRF1 - Taylor River, FL 16 mi80 min 85°F
LBSF1 - Little Blackwater, FL 16 mi140 min 82°F
LRKF1 - Little Rabbit Key, FL 16 mi140 min 82°F
LSNF1 - Long Sound, FL 17 mi80 min 83°F
BKYF1 18 mi80 min 84°F
GBTF1 - Garfield Bight, FL 18 mi80 min 83°F
HCEF1 - Highway Creek, FL 18 mi140 min 82°F
JKYF1 - Johnson Key, FL 20 mi140 min 81°F
LONF1 - Long Key, FL 21 mi80 min ESE 14 G 15 80°F 81°F1018 hPa (+0.0)72°F
WWEF1 27 mi140 min 81°F
LRIF1 28 mi80 min 83°F
NRRF1 31 mi80 min 82°F
CWAF1 33 mi140 min 81°F
TPEF1 - Tarpon Bay East, FL 36 mi140 min 81°F
CANF1 - Cane Patch, FL 36 mi140 min 78°F
VCAF1 - 8723970 - Vaca Key, FL 37 mi50 min ENE 8.9 G 14 82°F 82°F1017.5 hPa
GBIF1 - Gunboat Island, FL 37 mi80 min 80°F
SREF1 39 mi80 min 81°F
SMKF1 - Sombrero Key, FL 40 mi30 min E 12 G 13 79°F 1017.3 hPa (-0.4)71°F
BDVF1 - Broad River, FL 41 mi80 min 82°F
HREF1 41 mi80 min 80°F
FWYF1 - Fowey Rocks, FL 47 mi80 min ESE 13 G 14 78°F 78°F1019.3 hPa (+0.0)
WIWF1 - Willy Willy, FL 49 mi80 min 78°F

Wind History for Vaca Key, FL
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
The Florida Keys - Marathon International Airport, FL33 mi27 minESE 810.00 miFair87°F72°F61%1017.8 hPa

Wind History from MTH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE9
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1 day agoN6N6N54NW7NW4NW3CalmN4N4CalmN3NE3CalmCalmE4E4E7--NE8E7E8E9E11
2 days ago4N6NE5NW4NW5NW4N4N4N3N3N4CalmCalmCalmCalmN3N3N5N6N6N5N6N8NW7

Tide / Current Tables for Tavernier Creek, Hwy. 1 bridge, Hawk Channel, Florida
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Tavernier Creek
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:38 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 02:49 AM EDT     1.41 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:53 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:11 AM EDT     0.16 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 12:49 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 03:08 PM EDT     1.30 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:46 PM EDT     First Quarter
Sun -- 07:47 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 09:36 PM EDT     0.02 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.81.11.41.41.31.10.80.50.30.20.20.40.711.21.31.21.10.80.50.2000.2

Tide / Current Tables for Long Key, east of drawbridge, Florida Current
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Long Key
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:39 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 02:40 AM EDT     1.12 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 06:24 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 06:54 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:04 AM EDT     -0.89 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 12:24 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 12:50 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 02:57 PM EDT     0.64 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 05:46 PM EDT     First Quarter
Sun -- 06:03 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 07:48 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 09:17 PM EDT     -1.16 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.30.81.11.110.70.2-0.3-0.7-0.9-0.8-0.6-0.20.30.60.60.60.40-0.5-0.9-1.2-1.1-0.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Miami-South Florida, FL (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Miami, FL
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.