Tuesday, November21, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Tavernier, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:43AMSunset 5:32PM Tuesday November 21, 2017 2:32 PM EST (19:32 UTC) Moonrise 9:13AMMoonset 8:14PM Illumination 10% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ042 Hawk Channel From Ocean Reef To Craig Key Out To The Reef- Hawk Channel From Craig Key To West End Of Seven Mile Bridge Out To The Reef- Hawk Channel From West End Of Seven Mile Bridge To Halfmoon Shoal Out To The Reef- 1022 Am Est Tue Nov 21 2017
This afternoon..East to southeast winds near 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. NEarshore waters a light chop. Scattered showers.
Tonight..Northeast to east winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. NEarshore waters smooth to a light chop. Isolated showers.
Wednesday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 foot or less. NEarshore waters smooth to a light chop. Isolated showers.
Wednesday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 foot or less. NEarshore waters smooth to a light chop. Scattered showers.
Thursday..Southeast to south winds near 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. NEarshore waters a light chop. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms.
Thursday night..South winds near 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. NEarshore waters a light chop. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms.
Friday..Southwest to west winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet. NEarshore waters a light to moderate chop. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms.
Friday night..West to northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet. NEarshore waters a light to moderate chop. Isolated showers.
Saturday and Saturday night..Northwest to north winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet. NEarshore waters a light to moderate chop. Isolated showers.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Tavernier, FL
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location: 25.01, -80.38     debug


Area Discussion for - Miami-South Florida, FL
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Fxus62 kmfl 211825
afdmfl
area forecast discussion
national weather service miami fl
125 pm est Tue nov 21 2017

Aviation
Showers and thunderstorms have lifted north of the area, away from
the region. This afternoon, limited moisture and lift will
produce mainly isolated showers over portions of the peninsula.

However, not widespread enough to include in the latest taf
package. Southeast winds will remain below 10 kt through this
afternoon, then dwindle by this evening.VFR conds are expected
late tonight through Wednesday morning.

Prev discussion issued 1124 am est Tue nov 21 2017
update...

most shower activity has already moved well north of the area.

Latest wpc surface analysis shows a trough located in the gulf of
mexico, accompanied by a warm front draped from central florida
eastward over the atlantic. As the trough lifts northeast this
afternoon, convection will be mainly confined to areas north of
our cwa. Over the next several hours, the hrrr and WRF models
develop isolated showers over eastern and interior south florida.

Satellite derived pwats are noted at around an inch, with drier
and more stable air advecting northward from the florida
straights. In the update, significantly decreased pop coverage
areawide through the remainder of today. Otherwise, all other
variables appeared on track.

Prev discussion... Issued 246 am est Tue nov 21 2017
discussion...

a retreating frontal boundary is acting as a convective focus area
this morning. Radar has indicated rainfall amounts over 1 inch
over portions of the east coast metro overnight as the front
pushes northward across the area. Over the gulf of mexico, the
amplifying mid-level trough shifts eastward with associated clouds
and convection. Closer to home over the southeast gulf of mexico,
an area of convection associated with a shortwave trough is
pushing closer to florida. Between the frontal boundary in the
region and this shortwave trough, expected an increase in
convection today compared to previous days. Slightly warmer
temperatures and additional cloud cover are also expected today.

Some of the convection today is capable of producing gusty wind
and heavy rain.

As the shortwave trough moves away tonight, rain chances will
decrease overnight into Wednesday morning. Another shortwave
trough will push into the region on Wednesday, once again bringing
an increase in convection over florida. Some guidance is hinting
that there might be a slot of drier air over southern florida on
Wednesday, which might help limit convection to later in the day.

As the frontal boundary emerges and the mid-level trough pushes
closer, a surface low may develop over the northeastern gulf by
thanksgiving day. Rain and thunderstorm mentions remain in the
forecast for thanksgiving day and Friday as the boundary remains
over the region. Finally, the mid-level trough should swing
through late Friday into early Saturday allowing for drier and
slightly cooler air to come in for the weekend. A reinforcement of
the drier, cooler air should arrive late in the weekend leading
to a chillier start to the next work week.

Marine...

conditions over the atlantic waters are expected to improve today,
though small craft will need to exercise caution until winds and
seas diminish. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible over the
coming day and nights before a cold front clears through the area
this weekend bringing increasing winds and potentially hazardous
seas in its wake.

Beach forecast...

the high risk of rip currents along the atlantic beaches is
expected to last another day as the onshore flow shifts
southeasterly. As the wind decreases, the rip current risk on the
atlantic beaches should diminish over the next couple of days.

Preliminary point temps pops
West palm beach 67 83 70 81 30 20 40 60
fort lauderdale 70 83 71 82 20 20 30 50
miami 71 85 72 84 20 20 30 50
naples 67 83 69 80 20 20 20 50

Mfl watches warnings advisories
Fl... High rip current risk until 7 pm est this evening for flz168-172-
173.

Am... None.

Gm... None.

Update... 27 jt
discussion... 02 rag
marine... 02 rag
aviation... 27 jt
beach forecast... 02 rag


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MLRF1 - Molasses Reef, FL 0 mi32 min S 4.1 G 5.1 79°F 80°F1013.6 hPa (-2.4)
BNKF1 - Butternut Key, FL 9 mi92 min 76°F
BWSF1 - Blackwater Sound, FL 12 mi152 min 76°F
DKKF1 - Duck Key, FL 13 mi152 min 75°F
LBSF1 - Little Blackwater, FL 14 mi152 min 75°F
LSNF1 - Long Sound, FL 16 mi92 min 77°F
BOBF1 - Bob Allen, FL 16 mi92 min 76°F
TCVF1 - Trout Cove, FL 16 mi152 min 76°F
HCEF1 - Highway Creek, FL 17 mi152 min 77°F
LMDF1 - Little Madeira, FL 18 mi92 min 77°F
WRBF1 - Whipray Basin, FL 19 mi152 min N 2.9 75°F
PKYF1 - Peterson Key, FL 20 mi92 min 76°F
TRRF1 - Taylor River, FL 20 mi92 min 77°F
TBYF1 21 mi92 min 76°F
LRKF1 - Little Rabbit Key, FL 24 mi152 min 77°F
BKYF1 25 mi92 min 76°F
GBTF1 - Garfield Bight, FL 25 mi92 min 75°F
JKYF1 - Johnson Key, FL 28 mi152 min 77°F
LRIF1 33 mi92 min 76°F
WWEF1 33 mi152 min 76°F
NRRF1 36 mi92 min 75°F
CWAF1 39 mi152 min 76°F
TPEF1 - Tarpon Bay East, FL 41 mi152 min 74°F
CANF1 - Cane Patch, FL 41 mi152 min 76°F
GBIF1 - Gunboat Island, FL 43 mi92 min 74°F
FWYF1 - Fowey Rocks, FL 43 mi32 min S 2.9 G 4.1 79°F 78°F1014.1 hPa (-2.4)
VCAF1 - 8723970 - Vaca Key, FL 44 mi44 min W 5.1 G 7 77°F 77°F1013 hPa
SREF1 45 mi92 min 76°F
HREF1 46 mi92 min 75°F
BDVF1 - Broad River, FL 46 mi92 min 75°F

Wind History for Vaca Key, FL
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Homestead Air Reserve Base, FL32 mi36 minESE 610.00 miA Few Clouds83°F73°F74%1013.5 hPa

Wind History from HST (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE13NE13NE9NE7NE12
G18
NE7N6N6E5NE7E4CalmE3SE4CalmNW3CalmCalmNW3S5E5SE4S5SE6
1 day agoW7W4W6NW4W6W5W6W4CalmCalmCalmNW3NW4N4N4N8N6N8N9N7NE11NE14NE17
G22
NE15
2 days agoNE8NE9NE6NE5NE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW6NW3NW3NW4NW5NW7NW4W4CalmSW3S3

Tide / Current Tables for Molasses Reef, Florida
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Molasses Reef
Click for Map
Tue -- 03:37 AM EST     0.33 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:42 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:12 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 10:03 AM EST     2.72 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:09 PM EST     0.68 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:32 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 08:14 PM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 10:04 PM EST     2.45 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.71.20.70.40.30.611.62.22.62.72.62.21.71.20.80.70.81.11.522.32.52.3

Tide / Current Tables for Long Key, east of drawbridge, Florida Current
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Long Key
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:33 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 03:44 AM EST     -1.42 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 06:43 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:05 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 09:13 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 10:03 AM EST     1.28 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 01:42 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 04:21 PM EST     -1.08 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 05:33 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 07:36 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 08:16 PM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 10:05 PM EST     0.83 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.3-0.3-0.9-1.3-1.4-1.2-0.7-0.10.61.11.31.20.90.4-0.2-0.8-1.1-1-0.7-0.30.20.60.80.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Miami-South Florida, FL (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Miami, FL
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.