Sunday, April23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Tavernier, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:49AMSunset 7:50PM Sunday April 23, 2017 1:36 AM EDT (05:36 UTC) Moonrise 3:55AMMoonset 4:03PM Illumination 9% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ042 Hawk Channel From Ocean Reef To Craig Key Out To The Reef- Hawk Channel From Craig Key To West End Of Seven Mile Bridge Out To The Reef- Hawk Channel From West End Of Seven Mile Bridge To Halfmoon Shoal Out To The Reef- 1011 Pm Edt Sat Apr 22 2017
.small craft advisory in effect...
Overnight..East to southeast winds near 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. NEarshore waters choppy. Widespread showers and isolated Thunderstorms.
Sunday..South winds near 15 knots...becoming west and decreasing to near 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet...subsiding to 1 to 2 feet. NEarshore waters a moderate chop...becoming a light chop. Widespread showers and isolated Thunderstorms in the morning. Scattered showers in the afternoon.
Sunday night..West to northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas around 2 feet. NEarshore waters a light to moderate chop. Scattered showers.
Monday..West to northwest winds 10 to 15 knots...increasing to 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Seas around 2 feet...building to 2 to 4 feet. NEarshore waters a light to moderate chop...becoming choppy. Isolated showers.
Monday night..West to northwest winds 15 to 20 knots...decreasing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 feet...subsiding to around 2 feet. NEarshore waters choppy...becoming a light to moderate chop.
Tuesday..West to northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas around 2 feet. NEarshore waters a light to moderate chop.
Tuesday night..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots...becoming variable and decreasing to 5 to 10 knots by midnight. Seas around 2 feet...subsiding to around 1 foot. NEarshore waters a light to moderate chop...becoming mostly smooth.
Wednesday..Southeast winds near 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. NEarshore waters a light chop.
Wednesday night..East to southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas around 2 feet. NEarshore waters a light to moderate chop.
Thursday..East to southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas around 2 feet. NEarshore waters a light to moderate chop. Isolated showers.
Thursday night..East to southeast winds near 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. NEarshore waters a moderate chop. Isolated showers.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Tavernier, FL
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location: 25.01, -80.38     debug


Area Discussion for - Miami-South Florida, FL
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Fxus62 kmfl 230357 aac
afdmfl
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service miami fl
1157 pm edt Sat apr 22 2017

Update 2
Quick update to the forecast for tonight. The latest short range
models are showing the showers and isolated thunderstorms over the
florida keys will continue to move slowly to the north/northeast
direction through the overnight hours. This will focus most of the
shower and thunderstorm activity over the southeast areas of
south florida and the adjacent coastal waters. Therefore, the pops
have been lower tonight over most of south florida with a pop
gradient from around 5 percent over the northwest to 40/50 percent
over the southeastern areas.

Rest of the forecast looks good at this time and no other changes
are planned at this time.

Update 54/bnb

Prev discussion /issued 746 pm edt Sat apr 22 2017/
aviation... Pockets of light-moderate shra ongoing with
cigs/vsbys generally remainingVFR at the moment. Similar
conditions expected to continue overnight. Vcsh for all sites,
with occasional MVFR CIGS in heavier activity. Increase in
steadier ra with embedded TS expected from south to north after
06z, mainly affecting east coast sites, with prevailing MVFR cigs
around fl030. Ese winds 5-8kts overnight except kapf which will
remain vrb05kt through cycle. Atlantic sites will see SE winds
increasing to 10-13kts after 14z outside of convection.

Update...

as of 745 pm edt... Current forecast largely on track with some
updates based on the latest observations, and to better update
pops with ongoing and expected activity overnight from the latest
mesoscale models. Area of low pressure continues to move northeast
across the southern gulf of mexico towards our region, with
abundant showers and embedded thunderstorms out ahead of it.

Most of the activity has remained south and west so far, but
bands of showers with embedded thunderstorms will continue to
drift into southern portions of the region through the evening,
gradually expanding northward through the nighttime hours. With
thunderstorms that develop over the local atlantic waters,
waterspouts will be possible, as several storms in the florida
straits have already exhibited supercellular characteristics. Will
continue to monitor this trend into the nighttime hours, but the
main threat will continue to be locally heavy rain, especially
after midnight.

Prev discussion... /issued 401 pm edt Sat apr 22 2017/
discussion...

widespread soaking rain, heavy at times, likely across much of
south florida through Sunday...

near term /through 6 am Sunday morning/...

as of 400 pm edt... An area of low pressure in the southern gulf of
mexico continues to spawn scattered to numerous showers and a few
thunderstorms, mainly south and west of the region. Ahead of the area
of low pressure, continued brisk southeast flow prevails helping to
bring in abundant tropical moisture with pwat values soaring above
1.50 inches. With this moist flow in place, much of the day has
featured mostly cloudy to overcast skies limiting temperatures to
the lower 80s for most.

The area of low pressure will continue to move northeast towards
south florida through tonight, bringing increasing chances of
showers and a few thunderstorms to the region, especially for far
southern areas. It may take some time for much of the activity to
affect portions of the region, as the latest mesoscale models hold
off the bulk of the activity until after midnight. Still through the
late evening hours, scattered showers and a few storms will be
possible mainly across the gulf coast and the far southern tip of
the peninsula in the increasingly moist flow. Rainfall could be
heavy at times with the strongest activity leading to some localized
poor drainage flooding. Low temperatures tonight will generally be
in the 60s for the interior and western areas, and lower 70s for
eastern areas.

Short term /6 am Sunday morning through Monday night/...

the short term period will be quite active across the region as the
aforementioned area of low pressure moves northeast across the
region during the day Sunday. Latest model guidance has become
somewhat less bullish compared to recent runs, with the best plume
of tropical moisture potentially not being in complete phase with an
upper-level shortwave trough swinging across the southeast conus.

This may limit the overall potential for locally heavy rain, but
nevertheless Sunday looks to feature numerous to widespread
showers/rain with some embedded thunderstorms especially for eastern
areas.

Have continued to mention the potential for locally heavy rainfall,
most likely for the east coast, where the best moisture plume will
be in place. This moisture plume will feature pwat values peaking
around 2.0 inches, close to the maximum for this time of year.

However, an ongoing drought means that this rainfall will be much
needed across the region, and despite 1-2 inches generally forecast
with higher amounts of 3-5 inches possible, no major flooding
concerns outside of urban street flooding are currently expected.

While thunderstorms are possible Sunday, much of the activity will
be exhibited by moderate to occasionally heavy showers and periods
of steady rain, as widespread thunderstorm activity looks minimal
with abundant cloud cover limiting potential instability. The
greatest threat for locally heavy rainfall looks to be from early
Sunday morning through mid Sunday afternoon.

Rainfall coverage across the region will begin to decrease from west
to east beginning late Sunday, as the low pressure departs to the
northeast. There will continue to remain the threat for scattered
showers and possibly a storm or two Sunday night, with the best
chances across eastern areas. For Monday, a trailing frontal
boundary will move across the region bringing another round of
scattered showers with it, as remnant tropical moisture stays in
place. Depending on how much clearing can occur out ahead of the
frontal passage, a broken line of heavier showers with embedded
storms may be possible during the afternoon and evening hours.

Monday night will feature rapidly drying conditions in the wake of
the frontal passage as winds shift to the west/northwest.

Despite abundant cloud cover Sunday, high temperatures still look to
reach into the lower 80s for most areas, with some mid 80s possible
in western areas where extended breaks in rainfall occur, with only
mid to upper 70s in portions of the east coast that see the most
rain. Highs on Monday will be in the low to mid 80s. Low
temperatures Sunday night will generally be in the 60s, with mid 50s
to mid 60s possible Monday night behind the frontal passage.

Long term /Tuesday through Friday/...

generally quiet weather will prevail through the long term period,
as high pressure builds and remains in control across the region.

West/northwesterly flow will gradually become more southerly with
time, allowing the heat and humidity to slowly increase heading
towards next weekend. High temperatures will be mild and well into
the 80s across the entire region during the long term period, and
possibly reaching into the lower 90s as well for portions of the
interior and gulf coast late in the work week. Low temperatures will
be on the mild side as well with generally upper 60s to lower 70s.

Dewpoints will also slowly rise towards 70 degrees, slowly
increasing humidity across the region each day during the long term
period.

Marine...

low pressure moving across the region this weekend will bring a
widespread soaking rain to the local waters, with embedded
thunderstorms also possible especially for the atlantic waters. As
the area of low pressure departs to the northeast late Sunday, a
trailing frontal boundary will cross the region Monday swinging
winds to the west/northwest. Winds will then slowly become more
southerly through the week. Outside of the frontal passage, in which
winds may briefly reach small craft advisory criteria over the local
atlantic waters, winds will generally be around 15 knots, decreasing
to less than 15 knots beginning Tuesday. Seas will be 4 feet or less
over the next few days, except 4-6 feet Monday into Monday night
with the frontal passage.

Beach forecast...

a persistent brisk southeasterly flow around 15 knots, coupled with
a northeasterly swell of 1-2 feet and favorable low tide cycles will
continue to lead to a high risk of rip currents for the atlantic
beaches through Sunday evening. Rip current risk will decrease
beginning Monday as the flow shifts to west/northwest, with a
possible increase in rip current risk for the gulf coast beaches.

Fire weather...

outside of ongoing wildfires, fire weather concerns should be
minimal through Monday with relative humidity remaining above
critical levels as an area of low pressure brings a widespread
soaking rainfall possibly aiding in suppressing ongoing fires. A
trailing frontal boundary in the wake of the low pressure passage
will cross the region Monday, with drier air in its wake. Relative
humidity values may reach critical levels for the midweek period
with this drier air in place, although winds should generally be
light.

Interests in vicinity of ongoing wildfires should continue to heed
information provided by local authorities.

Preliminary point temps/pops
West palm beach 73 83 69 87 / 10 70 40 20
fort lauderdale 72 84 72 88 / 30 80 40 20
miami 73 84 72 87 / 40 80 40 20
naples 69 82 72 81 / 10 60 20 20

Mfl watches/warnings/advisories
Fl... High rip current risk through Sunday evening for flz168-172-173.

Am... None.

Gm... None.

Update... 54/bnb
discussion... 92/irl
marine... 92/irl
beach forecast... 92/irl
fire weather... 92/irl


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MLRF1 - Molasses Reef, FL 0 mi37 min SSE 20 74°F
BNKF1 - Butternut Key, FL 9 mi97 min 77°F
LBSF1 - Little Blackwater, FL 14 mi157 min 77°F
LSNF1 - Long Sound, FL 16 mi97 min 77°F
TCVF1 - Trout Cove, FL 16 mi157 min 77°F
BOBF1 - Bob Allen, FL 16 mi97 min 76°F
LMDF1 - Little Madeira, FL 18 mi97 min 77°F
WRBF1 - Whipray Basin, FL 19 mi157 min ENE 8 77°F
PKYF1 - Peterson Key, FL 20 mi97 min 76°F
TRRF1 - Taylor River, FL 20 mi97 min 79°F
TBYF1 21 mi97 min 78°F
LRKF1 - Little Rabbit Key, FL 24 mi157 min 76°F
BKYF1 25 mi97 min 76°F
GBTF1 - Garfield Bight, FL 25 mi97 min 78°F
LONF1 - Long Key, FL 28 mi97 min ESE 9.9
MUKF1 - Murray Key, FL 31 mi97 min 76°F
LRIF1 33 mi97 min 77°F
WWEF1 33 mi157 min 76°F
NRRF1 36 mi97 min 78°F
CWAF1 39 mi157 min 76°F
TPEF1 - Tarpon Bay East, FL 41 mi157 min 77°F
FWYF1 - Fowey Rocks, FL 43 mi37 min ESE 25 G 28 77°F 77°F1011.6 hPa (-1.4)
GBIF1 - Gunboat Island, FL 43 mi97 min 77°F
VCAF1 - 8723970 - Vaca Key, FL 44 mi49 min ESE 6 G 11 74°F 76°F1009.8 hPa
SREF1 45 mi97 min 76°F
BDVF1 - Broad River, FL 46 mi97 min 78°F
HREF1 46 mi97 min 76°F

Wind History for Vaca Key, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Homestead Air Force Base, FL32 mi99 minE 710.00 miMostly Cloudy75°F73°F94%1011.8 hPa

Wind History from HST (wind in knots)
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2 days agoE9E9E9NE9E5E12E11
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G20
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G19
E12E10E8E10E10E9E10

Tide / Current Tables for Molasses Reef, Florida
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Molasses Reef
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:23 AM EDT     0.10 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:54 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:36 AM EDT     2.32 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:51 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 12:47 PM EDT     -0.04 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:03 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 07:05 PM EDT     2.46 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:47 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.10.20.40.91.522.32.321.610.40.1-00.20.61.21.82.32.52.31.91.30.7

Tide / Current Tables for Long Key, east of drawbridge, Florida Current
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Long Key
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:07 AM EDT     -1.38 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 04:23 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 04:56 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:53 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:25 AM EDT     1.20 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 10:29 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 01:27 PM EDT     -1.46 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 04:41 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 05:04 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 07:47 PM EDT     1.39 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 07:49 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 10:57 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-1.2-1.4-1.3-0.9-0.30.40.91.21.20.90.4-0.4-1.1-1.4-1.4-1.1-0.50.20.91.31.41.20.7-0

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Miami-South Florida, FL (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Miami, FL
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.