Wednesday, December12, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
North Key Largo, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:57AMSunset 5:34PM Wednesday December 12, 2018 6:37 AM EST (11:37 UTC) Moonrise 11:01AMMoonset 10:17PM Illumination 24% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ630 Biscayne Bay- 344 Am Est Wed Dec 12 2018
Today..North winds 10 to 15 knots becoming east in the afternoon. Bay waters a moderate chop.
Tonight..East southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters a moderate chop.
Thursday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers.
Thursday night..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Bay waters choppy. A slight chance of showers.
Friday..South winds 15 to 20 knots. Bay waters choppy. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Friday night..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Saturday..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop. A chance of showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Saturday night..North northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop.
Sunday..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop. A slight chance of showers.
AMZ600 Synopsis For Jupiter Inlet To Ocean Reef Fl Out To 60 Nm And For East Cape Sable To Bonita Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 344 Am Est Wed Dec 12 2018
Synopsis..Breezy ne winds Wednesday morning before gradually decreasing. An increasing northeasterly swell will build seas in the local atlantic, which will continue the small craft advisory until 7 pm this evening. Increasing southeasterly flow is expected on Thursday ahead of the next front.
Gulf stream hazards..7-8 foot seas across the atlantic Wednesday, especially off the coast of palm beach county. The approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream as of dec 11, 2018 at 1200 utc... 4 nautical miles southeast of fowey rocks. 9 nautical miles east of port everglades. 6 nautical miles east northeast of lake worth. 6 nautical miles east southeast of jupiter inlet. This data courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near North Key Largo CDP, FL
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location: 25.31, -80.27     debug


Area Discussion for - Miami-South Florida, FL
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Fxus62 kmfl 120820
afdmfl
area forecast discussion
national weather service miami fl
320 am est Wed dec 12 2018

Discussion
A chilly morning across south florida so far this morning with the
coolest temps of the week thus far due to clear skies and
radiational cooling. The threat for frost is non- zero for hendry
and especially glades counties, but with temperatures dropping
just a degree or two below 40 and winds not completely calm, the
risk seems low enough to keep out of grids forecast. Otherwise,
this mornings low temps are forecast to drop in the lower 40s
across the lake region, low- mid 40s across the gulf coast, and
upper 40s to low 50s for the east coast.

As high pressure slides eastward into the atlantic today, winds
start veering from the east, consequently commencing the
warming moistening trend. Because of this, blue skies will
gradually fill with clouds and a quick passing shower can't be
ruled out over the atlantic waters .Even so, high temps for
Wednesday will only rise into the low-mid 70s across the region.

By Thursday, the combination between high pressure across the
atlantic and a parent low pressure system lurking across tx ar
will aid in a predominantly southeasterly flow. This will spur
deeper moisture and an increase in showers across the region with
forecast derived pwat values increasing up to 1.00 inches
Thursday.

As the work week comes to an end, so does the drier weather. By
Friday, forecast derived pwats swiftly increase up to 2.00 inches
and rain chances spread across the CWA as the aforementioned low
pressure system and associated cold front traverse across the
southern gulf states. With this in mind, GFS has an increase in
cape values on Friday across much of the area with some areas
exceeding 1100 j kg. The problem here is that both GFS and ecmwf
differ on the exact timing of fropa, so the timing of possible
thunderstorms, etc. Are still a bit iffy. GFS continues to trend
faster than ECMWF with FROPA Saturday morning afternoon whereas
ecmwf is insisting on a Sunday morning fropa. This gap in timing
leads to low forecast confidence beyond Friday and could create
some variability in the weekend forecast as the week continues.

Because of this, pops are again capped at 50 percent for the time
being Friday into Saturday, though grids are favoring GFS moreso
than ecmwf. The strong to severe storm potential with this next
low pressure system is still too far in time to discern right now,
especially with variances in models; however, the forecast
evolution will continue to be monitored through the week in case a
threat emerges.

Into early next week (after fropa), high pressure returns and nw
will winds prevail, allowing for a dry and pleasant conditions,
along with cooler temps.

Marine
As NE winds of 15-20 kt prevail across the atlantic waters, seas
of 6-8 ft, with occasional 8 ft waves, are possible. Because of
the higher seas, a small craft advisory is valid to 1 pm this
afternoon for the atlantic. Small craft exercise caution should
be followed through the first half of the day Wednesday for the
gulf waters as winds stay within 15-20 kt. Wind speeds will
continue to lower Wednesday and Thursday but could increase to
near advisory levels again for the atlantic waters on Friday.

Increasing moisture will also bring a chance of showers early
Wednesday and then Thursday into Friday for the atlantic. The
next cold front is poised to impact the waters sometime between
late Friday and late Saturday.

Winds and seas will slowly start to improve across the atlantic
and gulf waters towards the end of the weekend.

Aviation
Mainly clear skies at all TAF sites through about 12z, then a
gradual increase in clouds 3,500-5,000 feet as NE winds bring
atlantic moisture onshore east coast. A few periods of bkn
ceilings possible after 15z east coast, but more likely after 00z
Thursday. Gulf coast kapf remains mostly clear through the
forecast period. Wind 320-350 degrees less than 10 knots until
15z, then shift to 060-080 degrees at 10-12 knots.

Beach forecast
In concerns to the atlantic, a high risk of rip currents will
exist today across palm beach county beaches thanks to an easterly
wind component and easterly swells. Outside of palm beach county
beaches, a moderate risk of rip currents will prevail. As the week
progresses, moderate to high risk of rip currents will be
possible across the atlantic coast, especially as easterly winds
continue.

Preliminary point temps pops
West palm beach 73 63 77 68 0 10 30 30
fort lauderdale 74 67 78 72 10 10 20 20
miami 74 65 78 70 10 10 20 20
naples 73 59 78 66 0 0 10 40

Mfl watches warnings advisories
Fl... High rip current risk from 7 am est this morning through this
evening for flz168.

Am... Small craft advisory until 1 pm est this afternoon for amz650-
651-670-671.

Gm... None.

Discussion... 03 fell
marine... 03 fell
aviation... 59 molleda
beach forecast... 03 fell


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MDKF1 7 mi158 min 67°F
THRF1 9 mi158 min 67°F
HCEF1 - Highway Creek, FL 10 mi158 min 66°F
LSNF1 - Long Sound, FL 11 mi98 min 68°F
LBSF1 - Little Blackwater, FL 11 mi158 min 66°F
BWSF1 - Blackwater Sound, FL 13 mi158 min 69°F
DKKF1 - Duck Key, FL 15 mi158 min 66°F
TCVF1 - Trout Cove, FL 15 mi158 min 65°F
BNKF1 - Butternut Key, FL 20 mi98 min 66°F
MLRF1 - Molasses Reef, FL 21 mi98 min N 16
TRRF1 - Taylor River, FL 21 mi98 min 64°F
FWYF1 - Fowey Rocks, FL 21 mi38 min NNW 18 G 20 58°F 75°F1023.6 hPa (+0.0)
TBYF1 26 mi98 min 63°F
BOBF1 - Bob Allen, FL 29 mi98 min 64°F
VAKF1 - 8723214 - Virginia Key, FL 30 mi38 min NW 8 G 12 55°F 72°F1022.8 hPa (+0.0)
GBTF1 - Garfield Bight, FL 30 mi98 min 57°F
WRBF1 - Whipray Basin, FL 30 mi98 min NNW 16 58°F
BKYF1 33 mi98 min 60°F
LRIF1 33 mi98 min 65°F
NRRF1 34 mi98 min 64°F
CANF1 - Cane Patch, FL 36 mi98 min 67°F
WWEF1 36 mi158 min 67°F
TPEF1 - Tarpon Bay East, FL 37 mi158 min 66°F
LRKF1 - Little Rabbit Key, FL 37 mi158 min 62°F
PKYF1 - Peterson Key, FL 37 mi98 min 67°F
MUKF1 - Murray Key, FL 38 mi98 min 66°F
CWAF1 39 mi158 min 65°F
BDVF1 - Broad River, FL 40 mi98 min 65°F
GBIF1 - Gunboat Island, FL 41 mi98 min 69°F
SREF1 44 mi98 min 69°F
WIWF1 - Willy Willy, FL 45 mi98 min 62°F
LONF1 - Long Key, FL 45 mi38 min NNE 18 G 20 56°F 67°F1023.1 hPa (+0.0)49°F

Wind History for Virginia Key, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Homestead Air Reserve Base, FL13 mi42 minNNW 710.00 miPartly Cloudy51°F45°F79%1023.3 hPa

Wind History from HST (wind in knots)
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1 day agoNW4NW7NW7NW8NW10W12W11W7W12W10NW5W4W5W7NW7NW7N6N6NW4NW7CalmNW4N4NW4
2 days agoSE5SE5SE6S12S13
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SW15SW12SW8SW8SW10--SW8SW6SW4SW5SW6SW4SW6NW7W5NW6

Tide / Current Tables for Ocean Reef Harbor, Key Largo, Florida
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Ocean Reef Harbor
Click for Map
Wed -- 05:21 AM EST     0.39 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:57 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 11:00 AM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 11:40 AM EST     2.48 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:32 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 05:59 PM EST     0.62 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 10:17 PM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 11:52 PM EST     2.21 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.21.91.510.60.40.40.71.21.72.12.42.52.31.91.510.70.60.711.41.82.1

Tide / Current Tables for Caesar Creek, Biscayne Bay, Florida Current
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Caesar Creek
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:08 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 03:46 AM EST     -1.76 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 06:57 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:29 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 10:05 AM EST     1.09 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 11:00 AM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 01:26 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 04:27 PM EST     -1.43 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 05:32 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 08:14 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 10:16 PM EST     0.62 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 10:17 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.1-0.5-1.1-1.6-1.8-1.5-1-0.30.30.91.110.70.3-0.4-1-1.4-1.4-1.1-0.7-0.10.40.60.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Miami-South Florida, FL (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Miami, FL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.