Saturday, June23, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
North Key Largo, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 6:31AMSunset 8:17PM Saturday June 23, 2018 1:59 PM EDT (17:59 UTC) Moonrise 3:25PMMoonset 2:21AM Illumination 78% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ630 Biscayne Bay- 1019 Am Edt Sat Jun 23 2018
Rest of today..West southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters light chop. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Tonight..North winds 5 knots late in the evening becoming variable winds less than 5 knots. Bay waters smooth. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms late in the evening...then a slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
Sunday..East southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop. A chance of showers late in the evening. A slight chance of Thunderstorms through the night. A slight chance of showers after midnight.
Monday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop. Showers likely in the morning. A chance of Thunderstorms through the day. A chance of showers.
Monday night..East southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters light chop. A chance of showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Tuesday..East southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop. Showers likely and a chance of Thunderstorms.
Tuesday night and Wednesday..East southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
AMZ600 Synopsis For Jupiter Inlet To Ocean Reef Fl Out To 60 Nm And For East Cape Sable To Bonita Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 1019 Am Edt Sat Jun 23 2018
Synopsis.. Weak high pressure over the eastern gulf of mexico is forecast to bring a northwest wind up to 10 kts today. The wind will become southeast once again on Sunday. Showers and Thunderstorms will be possible each day through the week. Seas are forecast to be up to 2 feet for the coastal waters through the middle of next week.
Gulf stream hazards..None. The approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream as of jun 21, 2018 at 1200 utc... 3 nautical miles northeast of fowey rocks. 7 nautical miles east northeast of port everglades. 7 nautical miles east southeast of lake worth. 10 nautical miles southeast of jupiter inlet. This data courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near North Key Largo CDP, FL
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location: 25.31, -80.27     debug


Area Discussion for - Miami-South Florida, FL
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Fxus62 kmfl 231746
afdmfl
area forecast discussion
national weather service miami fl
146 pm edt Sat jun 23 2018

Aviation
Scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed across south
florida and they will continue throughout the afternoon hours.VFR
conditions will prevail, however, MVFR conditions are possible in
any shower or thunderstorm. Convection should diminish during the
evening hours and winds will become light and variable as well.

Showers and thunderstorm will redevelop on Sunday afternoon as the
east and west coast seabreezes move inland.

Prev discussion issued 1105 am edt Sat jun 23 2018
update...

showers and thunderstorms are beginning to develop along the
different sea and lake breezes that have formed this morning.

Forecast continues on track with a focus of showers and
thunderstorms expected later today along the east coast. The 12z
mfl sounding shows a slightly warmer atmosphere aloft which should
limit any hail threat today. The main chances for strong wind
gusts will be from convection around boundary interactions. No
additional updates are anticipated through midday. Have a great
Saturday!
prev discussion... Issued 801 am edt Sat jun 23 2018
aviation...

morning showers should be fairly isolated and focused to the
western portions of south florida. Activity will increase by this
afternoon over the east coast terminals as the sea breeze
develops. Sub-vfr conditions will be possible with storms later
today and may require restrictions to ifr lifr in future
issuances. Activity should diminish in the evening for the
overnight hours. Light easterly flow is expected to return on
Sunday.

Prev discussion... Issued 300 am edt Sat jun 23 2018
discussion...

showers and thunderstorms likely once again for south florida,
with the interior and southeast florida metro area having the best
chances for activity.

A strong ridge of high pressure remains well to the east, and a
secondary high is forecast to form of the southwest florida coast.

The models are indicating this will bring a northwest wind for a
good part of the day to the area. With this flow, any convection
will move to the southeast, giving the miami-dade and broward
metro areas the best chances for showers and thunderstorms early
on. The flow is likely to be disrupted by the sea breeze
development and convective outflow boundaries. This should allow
for the convective activity to migrate to the interior areas by
mid to late afternoon. However, convection still is likely across
all of south florida through the afternoon and early evening
hours.

As for how strong the convection will be, there may be several
factors. First, the 500 mb temp is forecast to be slightly on the
warm side, between -6.5c and -7c. The freezing level, on last
nights sounding was at 15.6k ft. This would make hail unlikely,
but not impossible, at least for small hail. Pwats are forecast to
remain well above 2 inches, indicating heavy rain with any
convective activity. Taking a look at the bufkit mbe vectors, the
storm motion should be slow, being under 10 kts. This may lead to
some urban street flooding for the east coast metro areas today.

Gfs and NAM model soundings showing ncape near .2, indicating some
decent vertical velocities. Together with possibly a small dry
layer aloft, could allow for some downbursts of 40 to 50 miles per
hour. However, this mornings sounding will give a better
indication of thunderstorm characteristics today.

For Sunday, the gulf high begins to migrate to the northwest,
lessening its influence over the wind pattern through the day.

This will allow for the atlantic high to bring the southeast flow
back to the area by the afternoon hours. The wind is then forecast
to be generally out of the southeast for the remainder of the
week. Moisture is forecast to remain over the area, and by Monday,
a 500mb ridge is progged to begin to build over the eastern us.

The GFS has come more in line with the ECMWF with strong ridging,
centered to the north. This should keep the 500mb temps on the
warm side, and allow the weather to be mainly sea breeze dominated
for the week. Showers and thunderstorms are forecast each day for
the afternoons across south florida. Basically, the typical
summertime pattern of diurnal showers and storms over the mainland
and some nocturnal activity over the coastal waters each night.

Marine...

high pressure in the gulf today is forecast to bring a northwest
wind up to 10 kts across the area. As the high migrates away from
the area, a stronger high well to the east will regain influence
over the weather pattern. This will bring the wind back around to
the southeast for the remainder of the week. Showers and
thunderstorms will be possible through the week. Seas are forecast
to run up to around 2 feet, with locally rough seas under gusty
showers and thunderstorms. Also, with a light wind field in the
mornings, and then with any convection in the afternoon, along
with boundary collisions, waterspouts will continue to be
possible.

Preliminary point temps pops
West palm beach 75 91 77 89 40 50 20 50
fort lauderdale 78 90 79 89 40 40 30 50
miami 77 91 78 89 40 50 20 60
naples 77 93 78 93 40 60 40 60

Mfl watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Am... None.

Gm... None.

Aviation... 55 cwc


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
HCEF1 - Highway Creek, FL 10 mi119 min 88°F
LSNF1 - Long Sound, FL 11 mi59 min 90°F
LBSF1 - Little Blackwater, FL 11 mi119 min 88°F
BWSF1 - Blackwater Sound, FL 13 mi119 min 89°F
DKKF1 - Duck Key, FL 15 mi119 min 89°F
TCVF1 - Trout Cove, FL 15 mi119 min 92°F
BNKF1 - Butternut Key, FL 20 mi59 min 89°F
MLRF1 - Molasses Reef, FL 21 mi59 min SW 4.1 G 5.1 85°F 85°F1017.5 hPa
TRRF1 - Taylor River, FL 21 mi59 min 89°F
LMDF1 - Little Madeira, FL 21 mi59 min 90°F
FWYF1 - Fowey Rocks, FL 21 mi59 min SW 4.1 G 4.1 88°F 85°F1017.8 hPa (+0.0)
TBYF1 26 mi59 min 87°F
BOBF1 - Bob Allen, FL 29 mi59 min 92°F
WRBF1 - Whipray Basin, FL 30 mi59 min SW 1.9 89°F
GBTF1 - Garfield Bight, FL 30 mi59 min 88°F
LRIF1 33 mi59 min 90°F
BKYF1 33 mi59 min 91°F
NRRF1 34 mi59 min 87°F
CANF1 - Cane Patch, FL 36 mi59 min 86°F
WWEF1 36 mi119 min 88°F
TPEF1 - Tarpon Bay East, FL 37 mi119 min 90°F
PKYF1 - Peterson Key, FL 37 mi59 min 91°F
JKYF1 - Johnson Key, FL 38 mi119 min 89°F
CWAF1 39 mi119 min 89°F
BDVF1 - Broad River, FL 40 mi59 min 88°F
GBIF1 - Gunboat Island, FL 41 mi59 min 89°F
HREF1 43 mi59 min 87°F
SREF1 44 mi59 min 89°F
LONF1 - Long Key, FL 45 mi59 min Calm G 0 87°F 90°F1017 hPa (+0.3)71°F
WIWF1 - Willy Willy, FL 45 mi59 min 85°F

Wind History for Virginia Key, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Homestead Air Reserve Base, FL13 mi2.1 hrsSE 125.00 miThunderstorm Light Rain Fog/Mist79°F77°F94%1018.3 hPa

Wind History from HST (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW3SE5NE5
G14
S6W11
G30
SE5CalmCalmS4CalmCalmSW3CalmS3CalmSW4SW5--W4NW4----SE12SE5
1 day agoS6S7S11W10W11SW7SW6W6N4CalmSW3SW3W3SW4CalmCalmS3S3CalmSW4SW8NW7W7W6
2 days agoE7NE8E8SE6SE5E5CalmCalmSW3S6S3SW3S4S5CalmSW4SW4SW4SW4SW6W7SW6SW8Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Ocean Reef Harbor, Key Largo, Florida
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Ocean Reef Harbor
Click for Map
Sat -- 03:21 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 05:31 AM EDT     2.28 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:31 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 11:57 AM EDT     -0.24 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:24 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:16 PM EDT     2.38 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:14 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.30.611.51.92.22.221.50.90.3-0.1-0.2-00.411.62.12.42.321.510.6

Tide / Current Tables for Caesar Creek, Biscayne Bay, Florida Current
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Caesar Creek
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:08 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 03:21 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 05:00 AM EDT     0.85 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 06:31 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:08 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 10:47 AM EDT     -1.87 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 02:24 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 04:24 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:40 PM EDT     1.36 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 08:14 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 08:18 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 11:36 PM EDT     -1.53 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-1.2-0.7-0.10.40.70.90.70.1-0.7-1.4-1.8-1.9-1.6-1.1-0.30.411.31.310.3-0.6-1.2-1.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Miami-South Florida, FL (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Miami, FL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.