Saturday, February23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
North Key Largo, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:48AMSunset 6:21PM Saturday February 23, 2019 7:47 PM EST (00:47 UTC) Moonrise 10:49PMMoonset 9:52AM Illumination 79% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ630 Biscayne Bay- 415 Pm Est Sat Feb 23 2019
Tonight..South southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop. A slight chance of showers after midnight.
Sunday..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop. A slight chance of showers.
Sunday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northwest after midnight. Bay waters a light chop.
Monday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 25 knots. Bay waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers.
Monday night and Tuesday..East southeast winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 25 knots. Bay waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers.
Tuesday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop. A chance of showers.
Wednesday and Wednesday night..South southeast winds 5 knots. Bay waters smooth. A chance of showers.
Thursday..South winds 5 knots. Bay waters smooth. A slight chance of showers.
AMZ600 Synopsis For Jupiter Inlet To Ocean Reef Fl Out To 60 Nm And For East Cape Sable To Bonita Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 415 Pm Est Sat Feb 23 2019
Synopsis.. Moderate southeasterly flow will continue across all the waters tonight, veering south-southwesterly tomorrow ahead of a cold front that is forecasted to push through our area late Sunday into Monday. A strong east-northeasterly wind surge behind the front will bring the potential for hazardous boating conditions, especially over the atlantic, late Monday into Tuesday. Coverage of showers will increase into early next week with the front.
Gulf stream hazards..SEas building to 8 feet late Monday into Tuesday. The approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream as of feb 23, 2019 at 1200 utc... 7 nautical miles east of fowey rocks. 11 nautical miles east southeast of port everglades. 3 nautical miles east northeast of lake worth. 4 nautical miles east southeast of jupiter inlet. This data courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near North Key Largo CDP, FL
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location: 25.31, -80.27     debug


Area Discussion for - Miami-South Florida, FL
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Fxus62 kmfl 240028
afdmfl
area forecast discussion
national weather service miami fl
728 pm est Sat feb 23 2019

Update
Radar this evening is pretty quiet with spotty showers over the
atlantic waters. Most of these showers are dissipating before
having the opportunity to reach the coast. Regardless, pops have
been kept in the overnight hours with a few minor tweaks to the
previous forecast.

Guidance is still supporting the chance for patchy fog across the
gulf coast and interior region early tomorrow morning, therefore
kept it in the grids. The rest of the forecast looks to be on
track.

Prev discussion issued 631 pm est Sat feb 23 2019
aviation...

vfr conditions should prevail, aside from low risk of fog low
stratus at naples around sunrise. Remote risk for showers
gradually increases through the period although risk is too low to
mention in tafs for now. Sse wind 10-15 kt this evening will fall
to around 5 kt overnight, then become ssw at 10-15 kt Sunday.

Prev discussion... Issued 404 pm est Sat feb 23 2019
discussion...

a closed low moving toward the great lakes and its attendant
surface front advancing across SE CONUS will force the ridge of
high pressure dominating our weather the past week to weaken some
overnight. 15-20% pops look to stick around overnight as well due
to increasing low-level moisture, with the east coast metro and
atlantic waters having the highest chance to see a shower or two.

Prevailing breezy southeasterly winds will veer and weaken from
the south overnight, allowing the potential for patchy fog to
develop across the gulf coast and interior region. Therefore,
patchy fog has been added to the grids. Overnight lows remain warm
and muggy in the upper 60s and 70s.

For Sunday into Monday, the mid-upper level ridge will continue to
weaken retreat to the SE to allow for the aforementioned frontal
boundary to approach south florida. Overall moisture is expected
to remain low on Sunday ahead of the boundary, but enough to
squeeze out a few showers along the seabreezes. With the ridge
axis suppressed south of the region, prevailing southerly flow
will push the gulf breeze across the peninsula and focus more
scattered showers towards the atlantic coast later in the day. At
this time, thunderstorms are not added to the grids as confidence
is not high enough. Although GFS is showing some moderate values
of surface convergence across the lake region, CAPE and shear
values look too low for significant vertical development.

Wind wise Sunday into Monday, initial light southerly flow will
increase and veer southwesterly westerly into Sunday
afternoon evening to northwesterly early Monday morning, post-
frontal. The front itself will sag into the region late Sunday
night before passing Monday morning. As the front stalls to the
south over the florida straits, lingering moisture will keep
scattered showers along the region Monday. Additionally, as high
pressure dives in from the NW during the day, winds will continue
to veer to NE ene E through Monday night as the pressure gradient
tightens between the stationary front to the south and the high
pressure to the north.

Otherwise, for the remainder of the week (Tuesday into Friday),
zonal flow in the mid-upper levels will prevail. Several subtle
mid-level impulses will traverse the region as well, keeping the
chance of rain in the forecast for pretty much the entire week. As
the previous stationary front begins to lift its way back to the
north Tuesday into Wednesday, rain chances will increase. Both
gfs and ECMWF continue to differ considerably in exactly where
the front ends up as it moves north of the area, but regardless,
both models are insistent on a wet mid-week. Because of this, pops
have been capped at 50% for the time being across the region until
confidence builds. In regards to thunderstorms, both GFS and
ecmwf show the potential for a weak vort MAX passing through, but
again, not enough confidence to include in forecast at this time.

Highs will back down to near normal Monday with a gradual increase
into later in the week. Low temps, however, will still remain a
little above normal for this time of year. See climate section for
more info...

marine...

moderate southeasterly flow will continue across all the waters
tonight before veering south-southwesterly tomorrow ahead of a
cold front that is forecasted to push through our area late Sunday
into Monday. Chance of showers will prevail across the atlantic as
well for tomorrow.

A strong east-northeast wind surge is expected behind the front
into Monday afternoon as the front stalls across the florida
straits, with the gusty winds continuing into Tuesday. Conditions
may approach advisory levels Monday and Tuesday as winds across
the atlantic approach 20-25 kt with 15-20 kt over the gulf. Seas
may build to 7-8 ft in the atlantic through midweek.

Winds subside and become south-southeasterly into Wednesday as the
boundary lifts back to the north.

Climate...

well above average temps continued today across south florida,
with naples reaching 88 degrees, which actually breaks its old
record high maximum temperature of 87 degrees last set in 2018.

As it stands, miami, fort lauderdale, and palm beach are on pace
to break or tie their record high minimum temperatures. In fact,
fort lauderdale and palm beach might possibly break the all time
february record high minimum temperature, again (fort
lauderdale previously broke the monthly record on february 21 and
palm beach did on february 20)... Will not fully know until early
tomorrow morning...

current low daily record monthly record
miami 75 75 in 1975 77
fort lauderdale 77 74 in 2016 76
palm beach 76 74 in 1975 76
unusually warm temps look to continue for Sunday before dropping
back down to near average into next week.

Preliminary point temps pops
West palm beach 72 85 69 78 20 20 20 20
fort lauderdale 74 84 70 79 20 20 20 20
miami 73 85 70 81 10 20 10 20
naples 71 83 68 80 10 10 10 10

Mfl watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Am... None.

Gm... None.

Update... 03 fell
discussion... 03 fell
marine... 03 fell
aviation... 23 sbk
climate... 03 fell


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
HCEF1 - Highway Creek, FL 10 mi167 min 83°F
LSNF1 - Long Sound, FL 11 mi107 min 81°F
LBSF1 - Little Blackwater, FL 11 mi167 min 81°F
BWSF1 - Blackwater Sound, FL 13 mi167 min 80°F
TCVF1 - Trout Cove, FL 15 mi167 min 82°F
DKKF1 - Duck Key, FL 15 mi167 min 80°F
BNKF1 - Butternut Key, FL 20 mi107 min 81°F
LMDF1 - Little Madeira, FL 21 mi107 min 82°F
MLRF1 - Molasses Reef, FL 21 mi47 min SSE 13 G 15 78°F 78°F1019.2 hPa (+0.3)
FWYF1 - Fowey Rocks, FL 21 mi47 min SE 16 G 17 78°F 78°F1019.6 hPa (+0.0)
TRRF1 - Taylor River, FL 21 mi107 min 82°F
TBYF1 26 mi107 min 83°F
BOBF1 - Bob Allen, FL 29 mi107 min 81°F
GBTF1 - Garfield Bight, FL 30 mi107 min 83°F
VAKF1 - 8723214 - Virginia Key, FL 30 mi47 min SE 9.9 G 13 79°F 80°F1018.6 hPa (+0.0)
WRBF1 - Whipray Basin, FL 30 mi107 min E 6 82°F
BKYF1 33 mi107 min 83°F
LRIF1 33 mi107 min 83°F
NRRF1 34 mi107 min 81°F
WWEF1 36 mi167 min 82°F
CANF1 - Cane Patch, FL 36 mi107 min 80°F
LRKF1 - Little Rabbit Key, FL 37 mi167 min 81°F
TPEF1 - Tarpon Bay East, FL 37 mi167 min 81°F
PKYF1 - Peterson Key, FL 37 mi107 min 80°F
MUKF1 - Murray Key, FL 38 mi107 min 79°F
JKYF1 - Johnson Key, FL 38 mi107 min 82°F
CWAF1 39 mi167 min 84°F
BDVF1 - Broad River, FL 40 mi107 min 81°F
GBIF1 - Gunboat Island, FL 41 mi107 min 80°F
HREF1 43 mi107 min 79°F
SREF1 44 mi107 min 80°F
WIWF1 - Willy Willy, FL 45 mi107 min 81°F
LONF1 - Long Key, FL 45 mi47 min ESE 9.9 G 12 78°F 80°F1018.3 hPa (+0.3)71°F

Wind History for Virginia Key, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Homestead Air Reserve Base, FL13 mi1.9 hrsESE 810.00 miMostly Cloudy79°F71°F77%1019.3 hPa

Wind History from HST (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Ocean Reef Harbor, Key Largo, Florida
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Ocean Reef Harbor
Click for Map
Sat -- 05:13 AM EST     -0.45 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:49 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:52 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 11:18 AM EST     2.54 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:38 PM EST     -0.52 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:19 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 10:48 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 11:51 PM EST     2.49 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.41.91.20.4-0.2-0.4-0.30.10.81.62.22.52.421.40.6-0-0.4-0.5-0.20.41.21.92.4

Tide / Current Tables for Caesar Creek, Biscayne Bay, Florida Current
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Caesar Creek
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:40 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 03:45 AM EST     -2.17 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 06:49 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:17 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 09:51 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 09:53 AM EST     1.37 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 12:49 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 04:03 PM EST     -2.21 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 06:19 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 07:41 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 10:27 PM EST     1.43 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 10:48 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.6-0.4-1.4-2-2.2-1.8-1.2-0.30.61.21.41.20.7-0.2-1.1-1.9-2.2-2-1.5-0.60.311.41.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Miami-South Florida, FL (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Miami, FL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.