Sunday, June16, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
North Key Largo, FL

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6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:29AMSunset 8:15PM Sunday June 16, 2019 12:37 PM EDT (16:37 UTC) Moonrise 6:46PMMoonset 4:55AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ630 Biscayne Bay- 1030 Am Edt Sun Jun 16 2019
Rest of today..East southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop. Showers likely and a chance of Thunderstorms.
Tonight..East southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters a moderate chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms late in the evening, then showers and Thunderstorms likely after midnight.
Monday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop. Thunderstorms likely in the morning. Showers likely
Monday night..South southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then showers and Thunderstorms likely after midnight.
Tuesday..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Tuesday night..Southwest winds 5 knots. Bay waters smooth. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Wednesday..South winds 5 knots. Bay waters smooth. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Wednesday night..South southwest winds 5 knots. Bay waters smooth. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday..South southeast winds 5 knots. Bay waters smooth. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
AMZ600 Synopsis For Jupiter Inlet To Ocean Reef Fl Out To 60 Nm And For East Cape Sable To Bonita Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 1030 Am Edt Sun Jun 16 2019
Synopsis..Generally favorable boating conditions will continue through the first part of the week under prevailing light to moderate southeasterly flow. Scattered to numerous showers and Thunderstorms are possible across local south florida waters including lake okeechobee throughout the forecast period. Lightning, gusty wind, waterspouts, and locally higher waves are possible in and near strongest storms.
Gulf stream hazards..None. The approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream as of jun 15, 2019 at 1200 utc... 11 nautical miles southeast of fowey rocks. 14 nautical miles east southeast of port everglades. 13 nautical miles northeast of lake worth. 13 nautical miles northeast of jupiter inlet. This data courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near North Key Largo CDP, FL
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location: 25.31, -80.27     debug


Area Discussion for - Miami-South Florida, FL
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Fxus62 kmfl 161336
afdmfl
area forecast discussion
national weather service miami fl
936 am edt Sun jun 16 2019

Update The diffuse boundary that was lingering just to our
south yesterday has lifted back across the region this morning as
southeasterly flow strengthens around the ridge. Low level
convergence with this feature is minimal, but just enough that in
combination with a weak midlevel disturbance transiting the
western side of the ridge, we've seen an active late night and
morning so far across the local waters.

Models are having some trouble resolving the current pattern,
which is important as its unclear exactly what role outflow from
ongoing activity and the expanding convective cloud debris will
have. The atlantic seabreeze will likely be diffuse given the rain
cooled delay in reaching MAX temps, and the gulf breeze looks like
a non starter today. However, overall trends suggest that it
showers and storms will still be relatively numerous today, though
more muted in terms of intensity. Steering flow is a little
stronger today, so activity should have a more defined movement to
the northwest and focus this afternoon across the interior and
gulf coast. Heavy rain and wet gusty downbursts will be the main
concern.

Prev discussion issued 752 am edt Sun jun 16 2019
aviation... Active morning over local waters with shra tsra
vcnty all terminals. Slightly stronger prevailing SE flow should
help with atlc seabreeze development 14z-14z, with vcts for all
east coast TAF sites. Best chances likely to move inland of east
coast, but still remain close enough to keep vc mention through
sunset. Gulf breeze more uncertain today at kapf, but likely to
see at least a S wind shift with tsra in area 18z-23z. Another
round of atlc shra overnight, which may require overnight vc
mention for east coast terminals.

Prev discussion... Issued 327 am edt Sun jun 16 2019
discussion...

high pressure over the western atlantic exhibits an elongated
axis that extends slightly north of our cwa, providing light
southeasterly flow. This will allow the already soggy airmass to
sojourn over south florida through at least the middle of next
week. Model soundings demonstrate this with pwat values remaining
near and above 2.0", which is between the 90% and MAX moving
average for this time of year. At the same time, the mid-upper
level pattern will be mired by weak troughing with a series of
embedded impulses propagating across the peninsula. Given the
fairly buoyant airmass, enhanced lift produced by the pattern
aloft should continue to support scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms. The best coverage being over the atlantic waters
and adjacent east coast metro areas during the morning hours and
then focusing across the interior and west coast metro areas
during the afternoon and evening hours.

By Tuesday into Wednesday, the surface ridge axis is then expected
to sinks south across the florida keys. This will veer winds out
of the south-southwest and allow rainfall coverage to relocate
back along the east coast and interior in the afternoon. With
areas having already experienced repeated rainfall this past week,
the risk of localized heavy rainfall remains each afternoon
across the urban areas.

Mid-level ridging will strengthen by late next week and extend
zonally across the peninsula from the western atlantic into the
gulf of mexico. While the surface winds look to remain out of
south-southwest, given the location of the low-level ridge axis,
model soundings indicate the return of more seasonable pwat values
between 1.5" to 1.7" as a result of the drier mid-levels. This in
turn should help diminish rainfall chance and coverage some
during this time. However, the return of above normal temperatures
and triple digit heat indices are also possible across the region by
the end of the period.

Marine...

boating conditions should remain relatively benign with seas
below 3 ft and winds of 5-15 kts becoming SE today and then SW by
mid next week. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to
continue across the local waters through late next week. Frequent
lightning, gusty winds, and locally higher seas are possible
nearly strongest storms.

Preliminary point temps pops
West palm beach 87 75 86 75 60 50 70 50
fort lauderdale 85 77 84 77 70 50 70 60
miami 86 76 85 77 70 50 70 60
naples 87 73 88 75 60 40 60 50

Mfl watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Am... None.

Gm... None.

Update... 88 alm


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MDKF1 7 mi98 min 83°F
THRF1 9 mi158 min 86°F
HCEF1 - Highway Creek, FL 10 mi98 min 84°F
LSNF1 - Long Sound, FL 11 mi98 min 84°F
LBSF1 - Little Blackwater, FL 11 mi158 min 85°F
BWSF1 - Blackwater Sound, FL 13 mi158 min 85°F
DKKF1 - Duck Key, FL 15 mi158 min 85°F
TCVF1 - Trout Cove, FL 15 mi158 min 84°F
BNKF1 - Butternut Key, FL 20 mi98 min 85°F
LMDF1 - Little Madeira, FL 21 mi98 min 84°F
TRRF1 - Taylor River, FL 21 mi98 min 90°F
TBYF1 26 mi98 min 86°F
BOBF1 - Bob Allen, FL 29 mi98 min 85°F
GBTF1 - Garfield Bight, FL 30 mi98 min 82°F
WRBF1 - Whipray Basin, FL 30 mi98 min SE 2.9 85°F
BKYF1 33 mi98 min 82°F
LRIF1 33 mi98 min 84°F
NRRF1 34 mi98 min 83°F
WWEF1 36 mi158 min 84°F
CANF1 - Cane Patch, FL 36 mi98 min 80°F
LRKF1 - Little Rabbit Key, FL 37 mi158 min 85°F
PKYF1 - Peterson Key, FL 37 mi98 min 86°F
TPEF1 - Tarpon Bay East, FL 37 mi158 min 83°F
MUKF1 - Murray Key, FL 38 mi98 min 83°F
JKYF1 - Johnson Key, FL 38 mi98 min 82°F
CWAF1 39 mi158 min 85°F
BDVF1 - Broad River, FL 40 mi98 min 85°F
GBIF1 - Gunboat Island, FL 41 mi98 min 84°F
HREF1 43 mi98 min 84°F
SREF1 44 mi98 min 86°F
WIWF1 - Willy Willy, FL 45 mi98 min 82°F

Wind History for Virginia Key, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Homestead Air Reserve Base, FL13 mi42 minNE 46.00 miHeavy Rain Fog/Mist74°F71°F93%1018.9 hPa

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Last 24hr--E8--W3----Calm----NE3E4E4E4E5E5E5E6SE5SE3CalmCalmN8NW6NE4
1 day agoNE5SE7SE7NE9E6N10CalmE3CalmCalmCalmE3E3CalmCalmNW5CalmCalm--CalmE5--E6E6
2 days agoN10CalmCalmCalmSE8S13
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CalmSW7NW5NW3N5NW6NW9N4--CalmW5CalmCalmCalmCalmW3N4N3

Tide / Current Tables for Ocean Reef Harbor, Key Largo, Florida
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Ocean Reef Harbor
Click for Map
Sun -- 02:29 AM EDT     0.05 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:55 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 06:30 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:20 AM EDT     2.43 feet High Tide
Sun -- 02:41 PM EDT     -0.40 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:45 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 08:13 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 09:02 PM EDT     2.66 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.90.40.10.10.411.62.12.42.421.40.70.1-0.3-0.4-0.10.51.21.92.52.72.52.1

Tide / Current Tables for Caesar Creek, Biscayne Bay, Florida Current
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Caesar Creek
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:26 AM EDT     -1.80 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 04:48 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 05:54 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 06:30 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:24 AM EDT     1.02 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 09:46 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 01:17 PM EDT     -2.34 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 04:53 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 07:45 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 08:06 PM EDT     1.77 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 08:13 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 11:03 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-1.4-1.8-1.7-1.3-0.60.10.7110.6-0.2-1.2-2-2.3-2.2-1.7-0.90.111.61.81.610.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Miami-South Florida, FL (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Miami, FL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.