Sunday, May20, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Homestead Base, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.

Sunrise 6:32AMSunset 8:04PM Sunday May 20, 2018 1:44 PM EDT (17:44 UTC) Moonrise 10:43AMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 33% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ630 Biscayne Bay- 1036 Am Edt Sun May 20 2018
Rest of today..East southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters a moderate chop. Widespread showers and scattered Thunderstorms.
Tonight..East southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters a moderate chop. Scattered showers with isolated Thunderstorms late in the evening...then numerous showers with isolated Thunderstorms after midnight.
Monday..East southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters a moderate chop. Numerous showers with isolated Thunderstorms.
Monday night..East southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters a moderate chop. Scattered showers with isolated Thunderstorms.
Tuesday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Tuesday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop. A chance of showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Wednesday..East southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters light chop. Showers likely and a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Wednesday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters light chop. A chance of showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Thursday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop. Showers likely and a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
AMZ600 Synopsis For Jupiter Inlet To Ocean Reef Fl Out To 60 Nm And For East Cape Sable To Bonita Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 1036 Am Edt Sun May 20 2018
Synopsis.. Widespread showers and a few Thunderstorms are forecast through Monday, with locally hazardous winds, higher waves, and frequent lightning all possible with the stronger activity. Southeast wind of 15 knots are expected across the waters through early week, approaching 20 knots on atlantic waters at times.
Gulf stream hazards..Southeast wind of near 20 knots. The approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream as of may 19, 2018 at 1200 utc... 4 nautical miles east southeast of fowey rocks. 9 nautical miles east northeast of port everglades. 9 nautical miles east southeast of lake worth. 14 nautical miles east southeast of jupiter inlet. This data courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Homestead Base, FL
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location: 25.44, -80.33     debug


Area Discussion for - Miami-South Florida, FL
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Fxus62 kmfl 201726 cca
afdmfl
area forecast discussion... Corrected
national weather service miami fl
126 pm edt Sun may 20 2018

Aviation
MVFR toVFR conditions prevail through the day as showers and
thunderstorms redevelop over the fl peninsula. A few shra will
produce brief periods of light to moderate rain along the east
coast terminals while a few TS could form over the west coast.

Most of the convection will be mostly focused over the west for
the afternoon keeping MVFR to possible ifr at times, especially
apf terminal. Expect a prevailing southeast flow through much of
the period with bkn to ovc skies. A few gusts up to 20 knots
possible by the end of the period into mid day Monday.

Prev discussion issued 1109 am edt Sun may 20 2018
update...

ample moisture continue to stream over south florida. However, the
area of heavy rain, which brought multiple road closures across
broward county, has moved off to the north. There area areas of
light to moderate rain still making their way into the area, and
additional accumulations of 1 to 2 inches, with localized heavier
amounts are still possible. Given palm beach saw most of the
higher accumulations occur west of the metro area, and miami-dade
was missed by most of the significant accumulations, have allowed
the flood watch to expire. However, have decided to extend the
watch in broward until 8 pm, as any high, or even moderate,
accumulations may cause water to enter some structures across much
of the metro area.

Prev discussion... Issued 847 am edt Sun may 20 2018
aviation...

a trough extends across south florida, and in conjunction with
ample moisture, showers are forecast through the TAF period. The
showers may be heavy at times, bringing low CIGS and vsby,
sometimes below ifr criteria. The trough is forecast to take a
westward shift today, possibly bringing some relief to the east
coast TAF sites this afternoon, although at least -shra will
remain possible. Some of the shra may also bring erratic winds to
the area.

Prev discussion... Issued 348 am edt Sun may 20 2018
discussion...

short term (today through Tuesday)
several bands of N S oriented showers have moved ashore overnight
from the atlantic, with rainfall amounts averaging 0.75 to 1.5
inches. These bands are associated with the convergence area on
the periphery of the subtropical ridge, where the deepest tropical
moisture has pooled. Expect this axis of moisture to remain over
eastern parts of south florida at least through this morning,
bringing bouts of locally heavy rain. Thus, flood watch will
persist through at least 11 am for miami-dade, broward, and palm
beach counties. See hydrology section for more information.

Guidance suggests that the deep-layer ridge to our east will
strengthen some and retrograde slightly west in the short term.

This will gradually send somewhat drier air toward the region.

However, at least through today, most of the area will remain in
very high pwat airmass, with only inhibitor of widespread
convection being abundant clouds which have thus far curbed
instability and have played role in the lack of flooding rainfall
in the past 24 hours. The corridor of deepest moisture is forecast
to gradually shift to interior or west coast of florida today and
tonight, then along the gulf coast Monday, before moving off the
peninsula and bringing a relatively dry - as in only isolated to
scattered showers thunderstorms for Tuesday. At least some threat
for locally heavy rainfall will remain Monday however.

Temperatures today and Monday will be significantly impacted by
rainfall, with maxima struggling to reach 80 degrees both days.

Long term (Tuesday night through Saturday)
it appears that any lull in precipitation Tuesday may be short-
lived, with deep tropical moisture returning for the latter parts
of the week. There is a great deal of uncertainty in the extended
forecast as global models continue to diverge in solutions. Ecmwf
provides for a stronger longer lasting subtropical ridge
influence, leading to drier conditions through about Thursday,
then greatly increasing rain chances as moisture-rich air pouring
back into the region as a tropical disturbance moves toward the
central gulf. Gfs, however, keeps moisture basically intact
through the week with disturbance moving faster and in a more
northeast direction, with perhaps drier air arriving in its wake
at the end of the period. For now, will simply hold onto increased
rain chances for the 2nd half of the week, but the potential for
a return to heavy rainfall will have to be watched. More details
on this potential can be found in the hydrology section below).

Temperatures in the extended are based on the assumption there
will be many more breaks in the clouds than this weekend, allowing
maxima to return to mid to upper 80s, and minima remaining
generally in the 70s.

Marine...

winds will be slightly stronger today than Saturday, with
southeast wind approaching 20 knots in atlantic waters. Seas will
also rise in the atlantic to 3 to 5 feet. Conditions are forecast
to be very close to advisory level, but for now will keep
cautionary statement in place and continue to monitor for stronger
wind. Similar conditions will likely prevail until about Tuesday.

Widespread showers with some thunderstorms will persist through
Monday, with the focus gradually shifting from the atlantic into
the gulf (and continuing for lake okeechobee). The heavier
activity could produce hazardous winds, locally higher waves, and
dangerous lightning.

Beach forecast...

with southeast wind of 15 to 20 mph today, conditions are likely
to be near the threshold for a high risk of rip currents on
atlantic beaches. For now will hold with moderate risk but will be
closely monitoring for higher wind speeds and or rip current
reports. Similar conditions are likely into mid-week.

Hydrology...

grounds continue to saturate as drought conditions are
ending being alleviated across south florida. Thus far, heaviest
rainfall has been over the naples area as well has palm beach and
broward counties. Today's highest totals (2 to 4 inches with
isolated higher) are likely to be along the east coast (where the
flood watch is in effect). Watch may need to be extended if bands
of showers dont propagate more westward with time. Additional
heavy rain, averaging 1 to 2 inches, with locally higher amounts,
are possible Monday, before a relative lull is expected into the
middle of next week. Thereafter, will have to monitor for
additional heavy rain flood potential as deep tropical moisture is
poised to return. Latest wpc 7-day forecast rainfall totals range
from 3 to 7 inches, with greatest amounts across southeast
florida.

Preliminary point temps pops
West palm beach 72 80 74 83 60 70 40 30
fort lauderdale 74 82 74 82 60 70 40 30
miami 73 82 74 81 60 70 40 30
naples 71 83 72 85 40 60 40 30

Mfl watches warnings advisories
Fl... Flood watch until 8 pm edt this evening for flz071-072-172.

Am... None.

Gm... None.

Aviation... 67 mt


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
HCEF1 - Highway Creek, FL 14 mi165 min 77°F
LSNF1 - Long Sound, FL 16 mi105 min 78°F
FWYF1 - Fowey Rocks, FL 16 mi45 min E 20 G 23 78°F 77°F1018.3 hPa (-0.6)
LBSF1 - Little Blackwater, FL 17 mi165 min 79°F
BWSF1 - Blackwater Sound, FL 19 mi165 min 78°F
TCVF1 - Trout Cove, FL 19 mi165 min 78°F
DKKF1 - Duck Key, FL 20 mi165 min 78°F
VAKF1 - 8723214 - Virginia Key, FL 22 mi45 min E 13 G 16 79°F 79°F1017.5 hPa (-0.6)
TRRF1 - Taylor River, FL 23 mi105 min 80°F
LMDF1 - Little Madeira, FL 24 mi105 min 79°F
BNKF1 - Butternut Key, FL 26 mi105 min 79°F
TBYF1 29 mi105 min 81°F
MLRF1 - Molasses Reef, FL 30 mi45 min SE 19 G 21 78°F 78°F1017.8 hPa
GBTF1 - Garfield Bight, FL 31 mi105 min 79°F
CANF1 - Cane Patch, FL 32 mi105 min 79°F
NRRF1 32 mi105 min 78°F
LRIF1 32 mi105 min 79°F
WRBF1 - Whipray Basin, FL 33 mi165 min E 6 79°F
TPEF1 - Tarpon Bay East, FL 34 mi165 min 79°F
BOBF1 - Bob Allen, FL 34 mi105 min 80°F
BDVF1 - Broad River, FL 35 mi105 min 80°F
BKYF1 35 mi105 min 79°F
WWEF1 35 mi165 min 80°F
GBIF1 - Gunboat Island, FL 37 mi105 min 80°F
CWAF1 38 mi165 min 80°F
HREF1 39 mi105 min 79°F
WIWF1 - Willy Willy, FL 39 mi105 min 78°F
JKYF1 - Johnson Key, FL 41 mi165 min 79°F
SREF1 41 mi105 min 81°F
LRKF1 - Little Rabbit Key, FL 41 mi165 min 79°F
PKYF1 - Peterson Key, FL 42 mi105 min 80°F
LMRF1 - Lostmans River, FL 45 mi105 min 80°F
PEGF1 46 mi45 min E 16 G 21 80°F 1017.9 hPa (-0.6)
PVGF1 - Port Everglades Channel, FL 47 mi45 min ESE 8 G 13 79°F 1018.2 hPa (-0.6)72°F
CNBF1 - Cannon Bay, FL 49 mi105 min 81°F

Wind History for Virginia Key, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Homestead Air Reserve Base, FL4 mi49 minESE 910.00 miMostly Cloudy79°F72°F81%1018.2 hPa
Miami, Kendall-Tamiami Executive Airport, FL15 mi52 minESE 810.00 miOvercast78°F72°F82%1017.9 hPa

Wind History from HST (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE10SE15
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SE7E5E6CalmE6E4E10E4CalmSE3SE8E8S10
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1 day agoE7SE7SE6SE5SE8SE5S3NW5S3CalmCalmCalmCalmSE3SW3CalmCalmE7SE7SE7SE3SE10SE10E12
2 days ago--CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3NE4NE3CalmE5NE6E6E4E4E4E4E3CalmE7SE6SE9E7

Tide / Current Tables for Turkey Point, Biscayne Bay, Florida
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Turkey Point
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:28 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 03:19 AM EDT     1.87 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:33 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:25 AM EDT     0.06 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 11:43 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 03:37 PM EDT     1.70 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:02 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 10:46 PM EDT     -0.08 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.51.11.61.91.81.61.30.90.50.20.10.10.40.91.31.61.71.51.30.90.50.2-0-0.1

Tide / Current Tables for Caesar Creek, Biscayne Bay, Florida Current
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Caesar Creek
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:27 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 03:06 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 06:02 AM EDT     -1.66 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 06:33 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:43 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 11:42 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 11:59 AM EDT     0.82 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 02:42 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 06:13 PM EDT     -1.95 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 08:01 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 09:59 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.51.30.80.1-0.8-1.4-1.7-1.5-1.1-0.50.20.70.80.70.4-0.2-0.9-1.6-1.9-1.8-1.4-0.800.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Miami-South Florida, FL (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Miami, FL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.