Sunday, October22, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Homestead Base, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:23AMSunset 6:48PM Sunday October 22, 2017 2:21 AM EDT (06:21 UTC) Moonrise 8:47AMMoonset 8:04PM Illumination 4% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ630 Biscayne Bay- 913 Pm Edt Sat Oct 21 2017
Rest of tonight..East southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers.
Sunday..East southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers in the morning...then a chance of showers in the afternoon.
Sunday night..East southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers.
Monday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of Thunderstorms in the morning. A chance of showers. A chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Monday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop. A chance of showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Tuesday..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop. A chance of showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Tuesday night..West southwest winds around 5 knots becoming west northwest in the morning. Bay waters a light chop. Showers likely and a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Wednesday..North northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Wednesday night..North northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters a moderate chop.
Thursday..North northeast winds around 10 knots. Bay waters light chop.
AMZ600 Synopsis For Jupiter Inlet To Ocean Reef Fl Out To 60 Nm And For East Cape Sable To Bonita Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 913 Pm Edt Sat Oct 21 2017
Synopsis..Strong pressure gradients between a decaying front over the region and high pressure over the southeastern united states will keep bringing easterly winds of 20 to 25 knots and seas of 5 to 7 feet for much of the waters through the weekend.
Gulf stream hazards..6 to 8 feet seas through the weekend. The approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream as of oct 21, 2017 at 1200 utc... 9 nautical miles east of fowey rocks. 13 nautical miles east southeast of port everglades. 13 nautical miles east southeast of lake worth. 11 nautical miles east of jupiter inlet. This data courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Homestead Base, FL
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location: 25.44, -80.33     debug


Area Discussion for - Miami-South Florida, FL
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Fxus62 kmfl 220559
afdmfl
area forecast discussion
national weather service miami fl
159 am edt Sun oct 22 2017

Aviation
Isolated passing showers will continue today mainly along east
coast sites but not enough coverage to warrant vcsh any longer.

But did place a tempo group for the early morning hours and will
amend beyond that as needed. Another round of breezy conditions is
expected today, mainly after 15z, with gusts to around 25 kt.VFR
should prevail today, but periods of MVFR (mainly cigs) are still
possible in association with any shower across the sites.

Prev discussion issued 812 pm edt Sat oct 21 2017
update...

surface high pressure over the mid atlantic will continue to
generate moderate to strong easterly flow over south florida
tonight. Expect winds sustained generally between 10 to 15 mph
along the east coast metro region, increasing again by mid Sunday
morning. Latest NWS radar loop indicates light to occasional
moderate showers advecting onshore from the atlantic. Instability
parameters still appear rather weak, so have not included any
mention of thunder in the update. Short term models, such as the
hrrr and WRF show isolated showers persisting through the night,
so have adjusted pops accordingly.

Prev discussion... Issued 405 pm edt Sat oct 21 2017
discussion...

latest wpc surface analysis shows a strong 1029 mb
cell of high pressure over the mid atlantic region, with a weak
stationary boundary draped across the bahamas. The combination of
these two feature has tightened the surface pressure gradient across
south floria and increased easterly winds today. On average, winds
along the atlantic coast have been sustained 20 to 30 mph, slightly
weaker inland. Satellite derived pwat values are from 1.6"-1.7",
with a majority of the moisture located in the lower and upper
levels of the atmosphere. Weak instability has allowed for quick,
westward moving, light to moderate showers over the peninsula.

Not expecting any lightning with this activity, so have removed
mention from the latest forecast package. With little changing
synoptically tonight, expect gusty easterly winds to continue
along the east coast metro region, generally around 15 mph.

Sunday through mid next week: models begin to slowly shift the
aforementioned surface high eastward towards the mid atlantic
ocean. In response, flow will turn east southeasterly, then
eventually south southeasterly. Winds will remain breezy through
the period, especially along the east coast beaches and metro
regions. Mid range models prog a low pressure trough to deepen
over the ohio valley, dragging a sharp cold front southward over the
gulf. As this system begins to approach florida late Monday,
moisture will begin to pool ahead of the front. The GFS forecast
pwats increase to around 2.00" over our region. Intability
associated with the approaching front will also increase. Thus,
expect elevated chances for showers and thunderstorms Tuesday into
early Wednesday across the entire cwa.

Late into Friday: behind the frontal passage, much drier and
cooler conditions will ensue. Maximum temperatures are forecast
only in the lower 80s on Wednesday, then struggle to reach 80
degrees on Thursday. Dry weather is expected, along with dewpoints
plummeting into the 40s and 50s. This front is a sure sign that
the end of the rainy season is near.

Marine...

pressure gradient between a decaying front over the region and
high pressure over the southeastern united states will bring east
wind of 20 to 25 knots and seas of 5 to 7 feet for much of the
waters through the weekend. A small craft advisory remains in
effect over the atlantic waters and outer gulf waters through
early Sunday morning.

Aviation...

scattered showers streaming westward across much of south florida
should continue overnight. Activity has approached naples more
than anticipated so added vcsh for kapf from 20-0z. Easterly wind
gusts are likely to exceed 25 kt through sunset, then diminish
slightly overnight, before increasing again by mid-morning Sunday.

Shower chances drop off after daybreak Sunday, so for now have
left dry tafs for fll and miami-dade terminals.VFR should prevail
but periods of MVFR (mainly cigs) quite possible, especially
through the afternoon.

Beach forecast...

persistent easterly flow will allow the high risk of rip currents
to persist through the weekend into early parts of the work week.

The flooding along the east coast during high tide should begin to
decrease over the next several cycles as the new moon phase ends.

Preliminary point temps pops
West palm beach 88 80 86 72 30 30 30 20
fort lauderdale 87 80 87 75 20 30 30 20
miami 89 79 87 75 20 40 50 30
naples 91 76 84 73 20 20 40 40

Mfl watches warnings advisories
Fl... High rip current risk through this evening for flz168-172-173.

Am... Small craft advisory until 6 am edt early this morning for
amz650-651-670-671.

Gm... Small craft advisory until 6 am edt early this morning for
gmz676.

Discussion... 52 ps


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LSNF1 - Long Sound, FL 16 mi141 min 83°F
FWYF1 - Fowey Rocks, FL 16 mi81 min ESE 22 G 24 83°F 83°F1018.4 hPa (-0.7)
VAKF1 - 8723214 - Virginia Key, FL 22 mi51 min E 12 G 16 83°F 83°F1017.5 hPa
TRRF1 - Taylor River, FL 23 mi141 min 84°F
LMDF1 - Little Madeira, FL 24 mi141 min 82°F
BNKF1 - Butternut Key, FL 26 mi141 min 82°F
TBYF1 29 mi141 min 84°F
MLRF1 - Molasses Reef, FL 30 mi81 min SSE 15 G 17 82°F 83°F1017.7 hPa (-0.5)
GBTF1 - Garfield Bight, FL 31 mi141 min 83°F
NRRF1 32 mi141 min 83°F
LRIF1 32 mi141 min 83°F
BOBF1 - Bob Allen, FL 34 mi141 min 82°F
BKYF1 35 mi141 min 81°F
BDVF1 - Broad River, FL 35 mi141 min 83°F
GBIF1 - Gunboat Island, FL 37 mi141 min 82°F
HREF1 39 mi141 min 82°F
WIWF1 - Willy Willy, FL 39 mi141 min 82°F
SREF1 41 mi141 min 83°F
PKYF1 - Peterson Key, FL 42 mi141 min 82°F
LMRF1 - Lostmans River, FL 45 mi141 min 82°F
PVGF1 - Port Everglades Channel, FL 47 mi39 min E 8.9 G 14 81°F 1017.9 hPa74°F

Wind History for Virginia Key, FL
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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NE16
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NE9
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N6
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G16

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Homestead Air Reserve Base, FL4 mi23 minE 910.00 miA Few Clouds82°F77°F86%1017.6 hPa
Miami, Kendall-Tamiami Executive Airport, FL15 mi28 minESE 910.00 miMostly Cloudy81°F73°F79%1017.5 hPa

Wind History from HST (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE12
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E16E17NE15E15E15NE11NE12E12E12E10E9E10E10E9
1 day agoNE8NE6NE5NE6N5N3NE10NE12E13
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2 days agoN7N5N6NW3N3N5N5NE6E5E9E8E7E8NE11NE11NE10NE6NE8NE8NE10NE12NE5NE9NE9

Tide / Current Tables for Turkey Point, Biscayne Bay, Florida
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Turkey Point
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:39 AM EDT     2.08 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:23 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:43 AM EDT     0.27 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 09:46 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 01:11 PM EDT     2.17 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:47 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 08:10 PM EDT     0.51 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 09:04 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
22.11.91.61.30.90.50.30.30.511.522.22.11.91.61.20.90.60.50.60.91.4

Tide / Current Tables for Caesar Creek, Biscayne Bay, Florida Current
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Caesar Creek
Click for Map
Sun -- 02:57 AM EDT     -2.18 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 06:32 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 07:23 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:18 AM EDT     1.51 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 09:46 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 12:32 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 03:29 PM EDT     -1.81 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 06:47 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 07:03 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 09:03 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 09:20 PM EDT     0.99 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.3-1.2-1.9-2.2-1.9-1.3-0.50.41.21.51.41.10.5-0.4-1.3-1.8-1.8-1.4-0.8-00.610.90.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Miami-South Florida, FL (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Miami, FL
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.