Sunrise 6:33 AM   Sunset 7:26 PM Moonrise 3:19 PM   Moonset 3:36 AM

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PMZ021 Southern Gulf Of California- 652 Pm Pdt Thu Apr 18 2024
Overnight - W winds 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. Period 15 seconds. Fri - W winds 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. Period 17 seconds. Fri night - SW to W winds 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. Period 19 seconds. Sat - SW winds 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. Period 18 seconds. Sat night - SW to W winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Period 17 seconds. Sun - Variable winds less than 5 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Period 16 seconds. Sun night - SW to W winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Period 16 seconds. Mon - S to sw winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Period 15 seconds. Mon night - S to sw winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Period 17 seconds. Tue - Variable winds less than 5 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Period 16 seconds. Tue night - Variable winds less than 5 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Period 15 seconds.

FXUS64 KMAF 191024 AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 524 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Today through Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 238 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

WV imagery shows a large trough centered over Ontario, and an open wave approaching the west coast, leaving West Texas and Southeast New Mexico under southwest flow aloft. At the surface, a cold front has banked up against the higher terrain, through which it will push by 12Z or so.

Temperatures will be tricky today, with quite the spread on models/MOS numbers, with forecast highs at KMAF ranging anywhere from 57 on the MET/NAM to 70 on the MAV/GFS. W/the NAM handling cold fronts better than the ECMWF/GFS, and given abundant cloud cover forecast throughout the day, undercutting the NBM seems reasonable, and we've used the NBM25 to bring highs closer to the NAM. Early this morning, the NBM begins developing convection over the lwr Trans Pecos, and then west into the Big Bend Area/Presidio Valley as shortwaves move through southwest flow aloft, and interact w/the frontal boundary along the river.

Tonight, surface winds will veer to easterly, advecting Gulf moisture to the west, and upslope flow will combine with the approaching west coast trough to increase POPs E-W, especially after 06Z Saturday. Mixing and abundant cloud cover will keep overnight minimums at or just above normal.

Saturday, the west coast trough arrives, and models hint at a secondary front working its way into the area. This looks to be the best chance for precip this forecast, especially northeast.
Unfortunately, this looks to be a high POP, low QPF event, which seems more typical as of late. But at this point, beggars can't be choosers, and we'll take what we can get. Temperatures Saturday afternoon should come in ~ 16-18F below normal. On the upside, this should be the coldest day this forecast, with warmer conditions to follow into the extended.

LONG TERM
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 238 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

The west coast trough continues to move east of the region on Sunday, thus ending rainfall for now. Temperatures remain well below normal across most of the region with 60s holding on due to continued cloud cover. Further southwest 70s and 80s return to these locations as filtered sunshine returns. The start of the new week sees a gradual building of the ridge once again. Temperatures increase back into the widespread 70s and 80s with the aide of return flow and mostly sunny skies on Monday. This warming continues into Tuesday with 80s for the majority and 90s along the river valleys as the low-level thermal ridge overspreads our area. A weak front and increased cloud cover may decrease the warm temperatures slightly by Wednesday but most remain in the 80s. The weak front may bring an isolated thunderstorm or two across the northeastern Permian Basin as well. By the end of next week, the very warm weather continues, 80s and 90s, while the dryline slowly backs up into eastern portions of the area. At the same time, our next weather system should begin to slide into the southwest US. This approaching system begins to increase thunderstorm chances once again across the eastern CWA along and east of the dryline.

-Chehak

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 519 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Northeast to east surface winds will continue for the next 24 hours. Surface obs and sat imagery indicate a MVFR stratus deck has developed over most terminals as expected, and this will persist for a few more hours before lifting to VFR. Overcast VFR will persist through this evening, after which MVFR cigs are forecast to redevelop all terminals. Convection will be possible KMAF/KHOB near the end of the forecast period.



PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Big Spring 61 50 57 44 / 10 70 100 60 Carlsbad 68 53 63 47 / 0 20 60 30 Dryden 78 62 74 52 / 30 50 90 60 Fort Stockton 71 57 69 47 / 30 50 90 50 Guadalupe Pass 67 52 64 44 / 0 10 40 10 Hobbs 60 47 56 42 / 10 50 90 30 Marfa 79 50 78 41 / 30 30 50 30 Midland Intl Airport 60 51 59 44 / 10 60 100 50 Odessa 61 53 59 45 / 10 60 90 50 Wink 66 54 65 47 / 10 40 80 50

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...None.
NM...None.

Topolobampo
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:57 AM MST     0.22 meters Low Tide
Fri -- 03:35 AM MST     Moonset
Fri -- 05:48 AM MST     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:45 AM MST     0.81 meters High Tide
Fri -- 02:03 PM MST     -0.01 meters Low Tide
Fri -- 03:18 PM MST     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:41 PM MST     Sunset
Fri -- 08:21 PM MST     0.95 meters High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Topolobampo, Sinaloa, Mexico, Tide feet

Yavaros
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:15 AM MST     0.35 meters Low Tide
Fri -- 03:38 AM MST     Moonset
Fri -- 05:49 AM MST     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:48 AM MST     0.91 meters High Tide
Fri -- 02:03 PM MST     0.07 meters Low Tide
Fri -- 03:19 PM MST     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:44 PM MST     Sunset
Fri -- 08:28 PM MST     1.03 meters High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Yavaros, Sonora, Mexico, Tide feet

Full Color Weather Map

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