Thursday, May24, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Palmetto Bay, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 6:30AMSunset 8:05PM Thursday May 24, 2018 10:05 AM EDT (14:05 UTC) Moonrise 2:43PMMoonset 2:27AM Illumination 73% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ630 Biscayne Bay- 447 Am Edt Thu May 24 2018
Today..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop. A chance of showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Tonight..East southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop. A chance of showers in the evening. A slight chance of Thunderstorms through the night. Showers likely after midnight.
Friday..East southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters a moderate chop. Showers likely and a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Friday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers in the evening. A slight chance of Thunderstorms through the night. Showers likely after midnight.
Saturday through Sunday..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Bay waters choppy. A slight chance of Thunderstorms in the morning. Showers. A chance of Thunderstorms.
Sunday night..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Bay waters choppy. Showers likely and a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Monday..South southeast winds around 15 knots. Bay waters a moderate chop. Showers likely and a chance of Thunderstorms.
AMZ600 Synopsis For Jupiter Inlet To Ocean Reef Fl Out To 60 Nm And For East Cape Sable To Bonita Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 447 Am Edt Thu May 24 2018
Synopsis..Scattered showers and a few storms will affect the atlantic waters during the morning hours today and Friday, before focusing along gulf coast during the afternoons and evenings. A tropical disturbance is expected to lift north into the gulf of mexico this weekend, bringing deteriorating boating conditions, especially over the local gulf waters. Widespread showers and embedded Thunderstorms may bring locally strong winds, higher waves, and occasional lightning with any Thunderstorms.
Gulf stream hazards..None. The approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream as of may 22, 2018 at 1200 utc... 1 nautical miles northeast of fowey rocks. 8 nautical miles southeast of port everglades. 3 nautical miles east southeast of lake worth. 6 nautical miles east southeast of jupiter inlet. This data courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Palmetto Bay, FL
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location: 25.62, -80.31     debug


Area Discussion for - Miami-South Florida, FL
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Fxus62 kmfl 241145
afdmfl
area forecast discussion
national weather service miami fl
745 am edt Thu may 24 2018

Aviation
GenerallyVFR conditions should prevail into Friday, but brief
periods of restrictions are expected with scattered showers that
will impact the region. Timing for the east coast is mid-morning
through early evening, then again late tonight. For naples,
activity should be confined to this afternoon and evening.

Southeast wind should generally be 10 knots or less, although
naples should see midday through mid-evening SW gulf breeze.

Prev discussion issued 423 am edt Thu may 24 2018
discussion...

today through Friday: weather the next two days will continue to be
driven by our position on the western side of the atlantic ridge as
we watch the potential development of the tropical disturbance in
the NW caribbean. While the disturbance is not expected to be a
major player in our weather through Friday, we will see a gradual
increase in our pwats as we begin to tap into the tropical moisture
associated with it.

Overall we look to remain in the pattern of morning showers and a
few storms along the east coast, with better rain storm chances
across the interior and gulf coast during the afternoon and evening.

Coverage on Friday should be higher than today as the leading edge
of the tropical plume advects into the area.

Friday night and beyond: details of the extended forecast remain
highly dependent on the exact track and development of the tropical
disturbance as it is forecast to move into the eastern or central
gulf of mexico this weekend. NHC currently has a 70 percent chance
of development within 5 days, with conditions becoming favorable for
further tropical or subtropical development as it moves through the
gulf. Given the continued feedback issues with the gfs, extended
forecast continues to lean heavily on the ECMWF and it's blends.

Here are the concerns for this weekend as they stand currently:
flooding: the main impact of this system is expected to be heavy
rainfall. Models are consistent in bringing a robust 2-2.5" pwat
plume across the region from Friday night onwards, driven by breezy
south-southeast winds. Similar to what we experienced last weekend,
this type of setup is favorable for training precipitation bands,
with the atmospheric profiles suggesting very efficient warm rain
processes. While current model guidance suggests the heaviest rain
may remain just offshore to our west in the gulf, the forecast still
calls for potential rainfall totals of 3-7 inches through early next
week. This does not include any locally higher amounts that will be
possible.

Given the already saturated ground and elevated canal levels across
south florida, any heavy rainfall will likely bring additional
flooding concerns across the region. At the moment, wpc has
outlooked the region in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall on
Saturday.

Tornadoes: a low pressure system moving through the central or
eastern gulf of mexico is a very favorable pattern for at least
isolated tornadoes across the florida peninsula. Models are
pinpointing the best 0-1km helicities from Saturday evening through
Monday as we see a gradually increasing low level wind field.

Wind: at the moment, a widespread strong wind threat is not
expected. However, do expect to see breezy south-southeast winds
through the weekend. While thunderstorms will likely be limited in
this type of tropical environment, a few stronger showers and storms
can't be ruled out given the potential for a low level jet around 25-
35kts.

Marine... Position of the western atlantic ridge will keep the
waters under east-southeast flow of 10-15kts through Friday. Beyond
Friday, the details of the forecast will be dependent on the
eventual track and evolution of a tropical disturbance as it is
forecast to lift north into the central or eastern gulf of mexico.

Overall, expect deteriorating conditions through the holiday weekend
with increasing southerly winds and widespread showers and storms.

Preliminary point temps pops
West palm beach 85 74 82 74 40 40 50 50
fort lauderdale 85 75 82 74 30 50 60 50
miami 86 74 82 74 40 50 50 60
naples 85 73 83 71 50 40 60 60

Mfl watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Am... None.

Gm... None.

Discussion... 88 alm
marine... 88 alm
aviation... 23 sk


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FWYF1 - Fowey Rocks, FL 11 mi65 min ESE 13 G 14 79°F 78°F1018.8 hPa (+1.1)
VAKF1 - 8723214 - Virginia Key, FL 11 mi47 min E 8.9 G 11 80°F 80°F1018 hPa
HCEF1 - Highway Creek, FL 26 mi125 min 83°F
LSNF1 - Long Sound, FL 28 mi65 min 81°F
LBSF1 - Little Blackwater, FL 29 mi125 min 80°F
BWSF1 - Blackwater Sound, FL 31 mi125 min 79°F
TCVF1 - Trout Cove, FL 31 mi125 min 80°F
DKKF1 - Duck Key, FL 32 mi125 min 80°F
TRRF1 - Taylor River, FL 33 mi65 min 83°F
PVGF1 - Port Everglades Channel, FL 34 mi41 min ESE 4.1 G 8.9 81°F 1018.7 hPa73°F
PEGF1 34 mi47 min 80°F 1018.3 hPa
LMDF1 - Little Madeira, FL 35 mi65 min 80°F
CANF1 - Cane Patch, FL 36 mi65 min 78°F
NRRF1 37 mi65 min 81°F
BDVF1 - Broad River, FL 37 mi65 min 80°F
BNKF1 - Butternut Key, FL 38 mi65 min 80°F
TPEF1 - Tarpon Bay East, FL 38 mi125 min 80°F
WIWF1 - Willy Willy, FL 39 mi65 min 80°F
LRIF1 39 mi65 min 82°F
TBYF1 39 mi65 min 82°F
GBTF1 - Garfield Bight, FL 41 mi65 min 83°F
HREF1 42 mi65 min 79°F
GBIF1 - Gunboat Island, FL 42 mi65 min 80°F
MLRF1 - Molasses Reef, FL 42 mi65 min ESE 9.9 G 11 80°F 80°F1018.2 hPa (+1.0)
WWEF1 43 mi125 min 80°F
CWAF1 43 mi125 min 80°F
WRBF1 - Whipray Basin, FL 44 mi125 min ENE 5.1 80°F
BKYF1 44 mi65 min 79°F
BOBF1 - Bob Allen, FL 45 mi65 min 80°F
SREF1 46 mi65 min 81°F
LMRF1 - Lostmans River, FL 46 mi65 min 80°F
CNBF1 - Cannon Bay, FL 47 mi65 min 81°F

Wind History for Virginia Key, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Miami, Kendall-Tamiami Executive Airport, FL7 mi72 minESE 910.00 miA Few Clouds80°F73°F79%1018.2 hPa
Homestead Air Reserve Base, FL10 mi69 minE 610.00 miFair80°F73°F79%1018.2 hPa
Miami, Miami International Airport, FL14 mi72 minESE 910.00 miOvercast80°F73°F82%1018.3 hPa
Miami, Opa Locka Airport, FL20 mi72 minSE 1010.00 miMostly Cloudy80°F73°F79%1018.5 hPa

Wind History from TMB (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE11E15E13E13E12E9SE12E10E11E8E6E7E6E7E6E4NE3SE3SE4E3E3E5SE9E10
1 day agoSE14
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E17SE12E12E9E9E10E8E8E7SE8SE6E6E5E6E8E11SE12
2 days agoE11SE15
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SE13SE13SE10SE8E7E7E9SE7E7SE8SE7SE8SE7SE7SE6E9SE11SE8SE8E11

Tide / Current Tables for Cutler, Biscayne Bay, Florida
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Cutler
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Thu -- 12:40 AM EDT     0.07 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:27 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 06:16 AM EDT     2.01 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:32 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 01:11 PM EDT     -0.08 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:43 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:53 PM EDT     2.04 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:04 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.10.10.40.81.31.8221.71.30.90.40.1-0.100.411.51.921.91.61.20.7

Tide / Current Tables for Miami Harbor Entrance, Florida Current
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Miami Harbor Entrance
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:26 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 03:40 AM EDT     1.86 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 06:17 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 06:31 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:15 AM EDT     -1.66 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 12:30 PM EDT     0.01 knots Slack
Thu -- 03:42 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:13 PM EDT     2.02 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 07:03 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 08:03 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:46 PM EDT     -1.56 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
01.11.51.81.81.30.3-0.5-1-1.4-1.6-1.5-0.60.61.41.721.80.90-0.6-1-1.4-1.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Miami-South Florida, FL (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Miami, FL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.