Sunrise 7:01 AM   Sunset 7:56 PM Moonrise 3:32 PM   Moonset 3:49 AM

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GMZ130 Laguna Madre From The Port Of Brownsville To The Arroyo Colorado- Laguna Madre From The Arroyo Colorado To 5 Nm North Of Port Mansfield Tx- Laguna Madre From 5 Nm North Of Port Mansfield To Baffin Bay Tx- 923 Am Cdt Fri Apr 19 2024
Rest of today - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots this afternoon. Light chop on the bay becoming a moderate chop this afternoon. Tonight - East winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southeast 5 to 10 knots after midnight. A moderate chop on the bay becoming light chop after midnight. Saturday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. A moderate chop on the bay. Saturday night - East winds 10 to 15 knots decreasing to 5 to 10 knots after midnight. A moderate chop on the bay becoming light chop after midnight. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight. Sunday - North winds 15 to 20 knots increasing to 20 to 25 knots with gusts up to 30 knots in the afternoon. Choppy on the bay becoming rough in the afternoon. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms, mainly in the morning. Sunday night - Northeast winds 20 to 25 knots with gusts up to 30 knots decreasing to 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Rough on the bay becoming choppy after midnight. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Monday - Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. A moderate chop on the bay. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Monday night - East winds around 10 knots becoming southeast after midnight. Light chop on the bay. Tuesday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Light chop on the bay becoming a moderate chop in the afternoon. Tuesday night - Southeast winds around 10 knots. Light chop on the bay.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ100 923 Am Cdt Fri Apr 19 2024
Synopsis - Light to moderate east to southeast winds and moderate seas should prevail through Saturday night. A cold front will then push through by Sunday, shifting winds moderate to fresh northeast. Marine showers and Thunderstorms will be possible this weekend, late Saturday through Sunday night or Monday, which could lead to localized areas of higher winds and seas.

FXUS64 KBRO 191127 AAA AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 627 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 129 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Above normal temperatures and generally rain-free conditions will continue across Deep South Texas today through Saturday. A nearly zonal flow aloft will continue to advect mid and high level moisture over the region from the Pacific Ocean. At the surface, persistent southerly to southeasterly flow will continue to bring low level moisture into the region. The influx of low level moisture and light winds have allowed patchy fog to develop across portions of the northern Ranchlands and along the coast early this morning.

Mostly cloudy skies early this morning will gradually clear through the mid to late morning hours and with skies becoming mostly sunny in the afternoon. Very warm to hot today with highs ranging from the upper 70s along the beaches to upper 90s across the Rio Grande Plains. Some convection will develop across the higher terrain of Mexico and may drift southeast towards a more stable atmosphere across the Rio Grande Plains later this afternoon into this evening. The Storm Prediction Center /SPC/ included portions of Zapata County in a Day 1 general thunderstorm outlook.

Another round of patchy fog will be possible late tonight, especially near the coast. Lows will fall into the 70s under mostly cloudy skies. Another very warm to hot day is expected on Saturday with highs ranging from the 70s at the beaches, the upper 80s near the coast and the low to mid 90s elsewhere. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop across the CWA Saturday afternoon, especially the northern Ranchlands and the Rio Grande Plains, ahead of an approaching cold front. SPC has all of Deep South Texas in a Day 2 general thunderstorm outlook, with a Marginal Risk north of the CWA for Saturday.

LONG TERM
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 129 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Key message: - Unsettled weather will occur Saturday and Sunday in the vicinity of a transiting cold front

SPC depicts the local CWA in a general thunderstorm outlook area both Saturday and Sunday.

Regarding Saturday, a shortwave trough will move toward the southern Plains on Saturday, as zonal flow remains in place across much of the Gulf Coast region. At the surface, a quasi-stationary front is forecast to be located across south-central and southeast Texas.
South of this boundary, a moist airmass will be in place with surface dewpoints in the 60s F. Surface heating will result in destabilization across this airmass during the day. As instability peaks during the afternoon, and as low-level convergence increases along and near the front, scattered thunderstorm development is expected.

ECMWF forecast soundings in south-central Texas during the late afternoon suggest that MLCAPE will peak near 1200 J/kg, and that 0-6 km shear will be around 40 knots. This would be favorable for an isolated severe threat. The stronger storms could be associated with isolated damaging wind gusts and hail. However, limited large-scale ascent and poor lapse rates will likely keep any severe threat marginal and focused just north of deep South Texas and the RGV.

Timing-wise, the front will move south across the CWA Saturday night, pushing to the coast Sunday around dawn. Rain amounts won't be tremendous, maybe a few tenths for the luckier spots.
Moderate to breezy northeast winds will develop behind the front Sunday through Monday. One consequence is that high temps Sunday and Monday will be in the 70s. Saturday night lows will be in the 60s, cooling down a bit further Sunday night with a few mid to upper 50s forecast for the RGV Plains and Ranchlands.

High pressure will spread over East Texas on Monday, with clouds locked in over the area. The high pressure cell will shift farther east on Tuesday, ahead of modest ridging just upstream. The old front will be quasi-stationary just to the south.

Tuesday through Thursday, winds will shift to southeast, and temps and relative humidity values will rebound as the old front lifts north as a warm front, possibly sparking a few showers on Tuesday.
Winds could become a little breezier on Wednesday and Thursday as high pressure interacts with pressure falls over the Plains.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 621 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Low cloud decks with light and variable winds prevail across Deep South Texas early this morning. MVFR ceilings are expected to prevail through around mid-morning. VFR conditions will develop later this morning into the afternoon. Low cloud decks with MVFR ceilings are forecast to return later this evening with possible IFR ceilings developing overnight.

MARINE
Issued at 129 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Today through Saturday...Light to moderate southeast winds with wave heights around 3 to 4 feet will prevail through the period. Small Craft Should Exercise Caution conditions cannot be ruled out due to a slight uptick in winds.

Saturday night through Tuesday night...Winds will decrease Saturday night ahead of a cold front, which will move through early Sunday morning. Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase Saturday night ahead of the front. North winds will become fresh to strong on Sunday after frontal passage, with showers and thunderstorms in the area, both persisting through Sunday night. Small craft advisory conditions will be likely.
Marine conditions will improve on Monday with light to moderate southeast winds returning on Tuesday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 89 74 87 71 / 0 10 0 20 HARLINGEN 92 72 90 68 / 0 10 0 30 MCALLEN 94 74 92 70 / 0 10 0 30 RIO GRANDE CITY 96 72 93 65 / 0 10 10 50 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 80 74 79 70 / 0 10 0 20 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 87 72 85 69 / 0 10 0 20

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...None.
GM...None.

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Matamoros
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Fri -- 03:48 AM CST     Moonset
Fri -- 06:02 AM CST     Sunrise
Fri -- 06:49 AM CST     0.25 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:00 PM CST     0.93 feet High Tide
Fri -- 03:30 PM CST     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:55 PM CST     Sunset
Fri -- 07:15 PM CST     0.58 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Matamoros, Tamaulipas, Mexico, Tide feet

Port Isabel
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Fri -- 12:23 AM CDT     0.98 feet High Tide
Fri -- 04:47 AM CDT     Moonset
Fri -- 07:01 AM CDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:44 AM CDT     0.41 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:58 PM CDT     1.08 feet High Tide
Fri -- 04:29 PM CDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 07:54 PM CDT     Sunset
Fri -- 08:50 PM CDT     0.80 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Port Isabel, Texas, Tide feet

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