Monday, November19, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Aventura, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:41AMSunset 5:31PM Monday November 19, 2018 2:59 PM EST (19:59 UTC) Moonrise 3:26PMMoonset 3:03AM Illumination 89% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 12 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ651 Coastal Waters From Deerfield Beach To Ocean Reef Fl Out 20 Nm- Waters From Deerfield Beach To Ocean Reef Fl From 20 To 60 Nm Excluding The Territorial Waters Of Bahamas- 944 Am Est Mon Nov 19 2018
Today..East southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Period 3 seconds. Intracoastal waters a light chop.
Tonight..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots along the coast to east southeast 5 to 10 knots in the gulf stream. Seas around 2 feet. Period 3 seconds. Intracoastal waters a light chop. A slight chance of showers after midnight.
Tuesday..East winds 5 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Period 3 seconds. Intracoastal waters smooth. A chance of showers.
Tuesday night..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Period 3 seconds. Intracoastal waters a light chop. A slight chance of Thunderstorms in the evening. A chance of showers through the night.
Wednesday and Wednesday night..East northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers.
Thursday..East northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Thursday night..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Friday..East southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Intracoastal waters a light chop. A chance of showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
AMZ600 Synopsis For Jupiter Inlet To Ocean Reef Fl Out To 60 Nm And For East Cape Sable To Bonita Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 944 Am Est Mon Nov 19 2018
Synopsis..Showers will be possible each day for both the atlantic and gulf waters of south florida. A weak cold front will move into the area Tuesday, helping to enhance the chances of showers across the area, and bring an increase to the wind, while turning it more northeasterly once again. Seas are forecast to run up to a foot in the gulf and up to 2 feet in the atlantic for the beginning of the week, building to around 3 feet by Wednesday night.
Gulf stream hazards..None. The approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream as of nov 17, 2018 at 1200 utc... 9 nautical miles northeast of fowey rocks. 11 nautical miles east of port everglades. 12 nautical miles east northeast of lake worth. 17 nautical miles east southeast of jupiter inlet. This data courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Aventura, FL
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location: 25.95, -80.14     debug


Area Discussion for - Miami-South Florida, FL
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Fxus62 kmfl 191744
afdmfl
area forecast discussion
national weather service miami fl
1244 pm est Mon nov 19 2018

Aviation
PrevailingVFR through the TAF period, with vcsh possible from
20-01z this evening. Otherwise E to SE winds are anticipated
through early evening, becoming light and variable tonight. The
exception is at naples, where a gulf coast seabreeze will develop
shifting winds to the west southwest into this evening.

Prev discussion issued 1041 am est Mon nov 19 2018
discussion...

modest westerly flow prevails aloft, with low-level winds turning
east-southeast. Column integrated precipitable water from the 19.12z
mfl sounding was 1.30, with satellite analysis and model forecast
time-height plots indicating this moisture should remain in place
today at and below 10 kft, with a pronounced dry layer above this.

Surface analysis reveals troughing both along the atlantic coast and
in the southeast gulf of mexico, and these boundaries will serve as
foci for isolated to scattered shower development today. Easterly
flow will then carry these showers into interior south florida this
afternoon. Modifying the sounding for heating mixing this afternoon
generates a meager 650 j kg of sbcape, and combining this with weak
lapse rates and limited forcing, suggests keeping thunder out of the
forecast for today. The going forecast remains in good shape, and
only minor changes were made to pops sky to account for trends, and
to increase wind speeds slightly across the atlantic gulf waters and
along the coastal interface.

Beach forecast...

increased today's rip current risk to moderate for palm beach
county beaches, where recent wind wave data suggest that swimming
conditions may become more hazardous for today. This elevated
risk may persist for palm beach county this week, while increasing
for broward and miami-dade county beaches late in the week.

Prev discussion... Issued 652 am est Mon nov 19 2018
aviation...

vfr conditions will prevail throughout the forecast period. Winds
will generally remain light and variable through the overnight
hours. These winds will gradually increase out of the east
southeast by the middle of Monday morning to 5 to 10 knots. There
could be some isolated to scattered showers through the overnight
hours mainly at kpbi. At kapf, a gulf coast seabreeze will
develop shifting the winds to the west southwest Monday afternoon.

Prev discussion... Issued 233 am est Mon nov 19 2018
discussion...

somewhat warmer and more active weather is in store for the week.

Models are in pretty good agreement for at least most of the week
with the pattern. Cyclogenesis is forecast off the mid-atlantic
coast over the next 24 hours. This low will have an associated
cold front, which should extend into the gulf of mexico. Models
are indicating the front will be fairly weak, and no significant
temperature or dew point changes. It is more like a weak boundary
moving through. However, it may be enough to initiate some shower
activity over the next couple of days.

The models do show the front sneaking across the area on Tuesday.

This can be seen by the 1000-500 mb thickness decrease on Tuesday.

The front will not have a good push behind it and there is
uncertainty as to how far south it will make it. However, both the
ecmwf and the GFS are hinting it may make it into the florida
straits by Tuesday afternoon.

Behind the front, high pressure builds to the north. However, the
surface wind never really turn to the east, but maintains a
fairly dominate northerly component. The high does seem to quell
shower activity for Wednesday and Wednesday night.

By Thursday, thanksgiving day, a 500mb short wave approaches the
area, bringing some instability to the area. Pwats are not very
impressive, with the GFS showing around a half of an inch. Gfs
does also show some weak CAPE for the area, generally around 700
j kg or less across south florida. The higher CAPE tends to stay
off shore, according to the model. However, the both the ECMWF and
the GFS are indicating another round of cyclogenesis, this time
over the western gulf of mexico. This looks to be a slow process,
as it takes a couple of days before it becomes a closed low,
somewhere near the louisiana coast. However, it does attach
itself to the boundary that stalled in the florida straits, giving
it a push northward, as weak warm front. This will mainly aid in
initiating shower activity for thanksgiving day for a good
portion of south florida. Friday looks to be in about the same
pattern and therefore showers are still possible for much of south
florida.

By the weekend, a strong low develops as a lee side low over the
plains. This low will quickly move eastward, absorbing the gulf
low, and push a cold front into the florida peninsula over the
weekend. But alas, it looks like an okeechobee teaser, basically a
cold front stalling out in the lake region, and never making it
quite into south florida. But it will be enough to keep showers in
the forecast through the beginning of next week.

So, overall, the week will see a slight chance to a chance of
showers for south florida. The atlantic waters may see a few
thunderstorms later this week. There does not seem to be any
significant change to the temperatures through the week, with
highs generally in the 80s, and lows in the 60s and 70s. The weak
cold front could bring some upper 50s into the western lake
region by Wednesday morning, and for the remainder of the week.

Marine...

the weather for the next week will see showers in the forecast
each day, with a weak cold front slightly enhancing shower
coverage Tuesday. The front move back to the north for the second
half of the week, which may initiate some thunderstorms over the
atlantic waters Wednesday, and again for the weekend. Seas for the
next couple of days should run up to a foot in the gulf and 1 to 2
feet in the atlantic. The wind is forecast to increase for the
middle of the week, out of the northeast. This would cause seas to
build slightly, up to around 3 feet on Wednesday for both the
atlantic and the off shore gulf waters.

Aviation...

vfr conditions will prevail throughout the forecast period. Winds
will generally remain light and variable through the overnight
hours. These winds will gradually increase out of the east
southeast by the middle of Monday morning to 5 to 10 knots. There
could be some isolated to scattered showers through the overnight
hours mainly at kpbi. At kapf, a gulf coast seabreeze will
develop shifting the winds to the west southwest Monday afternoon.

Preliminary point temps pops
West palm beach 67 83 63 81 30 30 30 30
fort lauderdale 73 84 71 82 20 30 30 30
miami 72 83 70 82 20 30 30 30
naples 70 84 69 83 20 20 10 10

Mfl watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Am... None.

Gm... None.

Update... 34 spm
discussion... 13
marine... 13
aviation... 34 spm
beach forecast... 34 spm


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PEGF1 9 mi47 min E 7 G 8.9 82°F 1016.8 hPa
PVGF1 - Port Everglades Channel, FL 10 mi113 min SE 5.1 G 7 82°F 1017.8 hPa68°F
VAKF1 - 8723214 - Virginia Key, FL 15 mi41 min E 6 G 8 80°F 79°F1016.6 hPa
FWYF1 - Fowey Rocks, FL 25 mi59 min ESE 4.1 G 4.1 79°F 78°F1017.7 hPa (-2.0)
LKWF1 - 8722670 - Lake Worth, FL 46 mi41 min ESE 5.1 G 7 79°F 81°F1018.1 hPa
MDKF1 48 mi119 min 77°F

Wind History for Virginia Key, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hollywood, North Perry Airport, FL6 mi66 minESE 610.00 miPartly Cloudy86°F69°F57%1017.2 hPa
Miami, Opa Locka Airport, FL8 mi66 minESE 610.00 miA Few Clouds85°F69°F59%1017.1 hPa
Fort Lauderdale/Hollywood International Airport, FL8 mi66 minSE 910.00 miMostly Cloudy82°F71°F69%1016.6 hPa
Miami, Miami International Airport, FL12 mi66 minSE 710.00 miMostly Cloudy83°F70°F65%1016.9 hPa
Fort Lauderdale, Fort Lauderdale Executive Airport, FL17 mi66 minESE 1010.00 miPartly Cloudy84°F69°F61%1017.1 hPa
Pompano Beach, Pompano Beach Airpark, FL21 mi66 minESE 910.00 miPartly Cloudy83°F69°F63%1017.1 hPa

Wind History from HWO (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE13E8E7E10E5E6E8E7SE5E4E3SE4CalmCalmN3CalmCalmCalmE3E6CalmSE7E5E6
1 day agoNE12NE11NE8NE6NE8NE11NE8E8E6E6E7E7E7NE3NE4N4CalmNE5E10E12
G16
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2 days agoN8NE8NE10N9N9N8N7N8N8NW10N11N10N9N7N6NW9N5N7N9N7N8NE13NE13NE10

Tide / Current Tables for Dumfoundling Bay, Florida
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Dumfoundling Bay
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Mon -- 12:53 AM EST     0.62 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 03:03 AM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 06:40 AM EST     2.40 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:41 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 01:17 PM EST     0.73 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 03:26 PM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 05:29 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 06:51 PM EST     2.41 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.70.60.81.11.62.12.32.42.21.91.61.20.90.70.81.11.522.32.42.321.51.1

Tide / Current Tables for Miami Harbor Entrance, Florida Current
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Miami Harbor Entrance
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Mon -- 12:12 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 03:03 AM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 03:54 AM EST     1.64 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 06:35 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 06:41 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:31 AM EST     -1.10 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 12:40 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 03:26 PM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 04:08 PM EST     1.51 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 05:30 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 06:44 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 10:29 PM EST     -1.24 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.20.81.51.61.61.40.5-0.3-0.8-1-1.1-1.1-0.60.31.21.51.51.40.7-0.3-0.9-1.2-1.2-1.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Miami-South Florida, FL (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Miami, FL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.