Friday, September21, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Aventura, FL

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What's New / NOTES
9/17/2018 XTide broke when 1and1 "upgraded" my server. It has been esculated. I am sorry for the problem.

Sunrise 7:07AMSunset 7:18PM Friday September 21, 2018 11:48 AM EDT (15:48 UTC) Moonrise 4:31PMMoonset 2:59AM Illumination 89% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 12 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ651 Coastal Waters From Deerfield Beach To Ocean Reef Fl Out 20 Nm- Waters From Deerfield Beach To Ocean Reef Fl From 20 To 60 Nm Excluding The Territorial Waters Of Bahamas- 1009 Am Edt Fri Sep 21 2018
Rest of today..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Period 3 seconds. Intracoastal waters a light chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tonight..East southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Period 3 seconds. Intracoastal waters a light chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Saturday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Period 3 seconds. Intracoastal waters a light chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Saturday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Period 3 seconds. Intracoastal waters a light chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday through Monday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas to 5 feet. Intracoastal waters a light chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning...then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Intracoastal waters a light chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday..East southeast winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Intracoastal waters a light chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
AMZ600 Synopsis For Jupiter Inlet To Ocean Reef Fl Out To 60 Nm And For East Cape Sable To Bonita Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 1009 Am Edt Fri Sep 21 2018
Synopsis.. Easterly winds will remain over the south florida waters this weekend leading to the typical nighttime and morning shower and Thunderstorm activity, except afternoon and evening activity around the lake okeechobee waters and near-shore gulf waters. A small northeast swell of 2 feet will also be working into the atlantic waters of palm beach county this weekend from the north that is associated with an area of low pressure north of bermuda.
Gulf stream hazards..None. The approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream as of sep 20, 2018 at 1200 utc... 9 nautical miles northeast of fowey rocks. 19 nautical miles east southeast of port everglades. 9 nautical miles east southeast of lake worth. 12 nautical miles east southeast of jupiter inlet. This data courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Aventura, FL
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location: 25.95, -80.14     debug


Area Discussion for - Miami-South Florida, FL
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Fxus62 kmfl 211520 aaa
afdmfl
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service miami fl
1120 am edt Fri sep 21 2018

Update
Convection is trending up this morning as an upper level low
approaches the region. The 12z mfl sounding shows a favorable
environment for not only thunderstorms, but possibly some stronger
storms that could produce strong wind gusts and hail. The lack of
steering flow will keep the threat of flooding present as the
atmosphere remains moist enough to support efficient precipitation
processes with convection today. The light flow will also allow
boundary interactions to provide environments that could allow for
waterspouts, funnel clouds, and possibly short-lived weak
tornadoes. Overall, this is a summer pattern with some enhancement
from the upper level low. The SPC mesoanalysis shows some
highlights along the east coast in the non-supercell tornado
parameter that line up well with the atmospheric assessment
provided earlier in this discussion. With the potential for an
active weather day across south florida, went ahead with an hwo
update and transmission of updated zones with some slightly higher
rain chances based off the latest high resolution guidance.

Have a wonderful Friday!

Prev discussion issued 758 am edt Fri sep 21 2018
aviation...

light flow will allow the sea breezes to form again today.

Convection is expected to not only develop along the sea breeze
but also could form offshore and push near the terminals. Sub-vfr
conditions are possible if convection impacts a terminal today.

Convection should diminish overnight though some isolated impacts
cannot be ruled out.

Prev discussion... Issued 251 am edt Fri sep 21 2018

A few strong storms possible today
Discussion...

today and tonight...

elongated mid-level ridging will remain anchored over the southeast
coastal states with equatorward troughing extending from the western
atlantic into florida. A closed upper level circulation, now evident
in moisture channel imagery over the western bahamas, will ride the
easterly steering flow while passing through south florida today.

Analysis of the 21.00z mia sounding reveals that temperatures aloft
have already begun cooling as the upper low approaches, with -8
celsius observed at 500 mb. Model solutions suggest even cooler
values will arrive today of around -10 celsius coincident with the
low's arrival. Decent moisture was also sampled last evening, with a
precipitable water value of 1.92 inches. Analysis of the GOES total
precipitable water product, along with forecast model relative
humidity fields all suggest that this level of moisture should be
maintained, or even increase slightly for today. Enhanced shower
activity is already noted over the atlantic waters early this
morning given increased moisture and cyclonic vorticity advection
ahead of the low, and should persist into the east coast metro
areas this morning in line with trends advertised by the
convection allowing mesoscale models. Sea breeze driven convection
is then expected to dominate for the late morning and afternoon,
with thunderstorm activity migrating towards interior and west
coast areas later this afternoon and evening. Lapse rates will
steepen given cooling temperatures aloft today, increasing the
chance of a few stronger storms for this afternoon. These storms
will be capable of gusty winds, frequent lightning, heavy
rainfall, and potentially some hail. Convection should begin
waning this evening, with another round of showers potentially
approaching the east coast metro areas towards Saturday morning.

Despite the scattered to numerous thunderstorm coverage expected
today, we should still see enough sunshine to maintain near
average high temperatures.

Saturday and Sunday...

the upper low will trek west into the gulf of mexico, as ridging
aloft is shunted into the western atlantic ahead of a digging trough
over the lower mississippi valley. Southeasterly steering flow is
expected, with weaker perturbations behind the upper low still
affecting the area on Saturday, resulting in scattered to numerous
thunderstorm coverage. Temperatures aloft will remain on the cool
side, especially across southwest florida, again suggesting a few
stronger storms will be possible on Saturday. By Sunday we should
begin returning to a more normal pattern of scattered thunderstorms
initiating along the atlantic and gulf sea breezes. Near to
slightly below average temperatures are expected during this
period.

Monday through Thursday...

look for rising heights aloft across florida and the western
atlantic with mid to upper level high pressure in control. Upstream
troughing will advance towards the southeastern CONUS late in the
period with an accompanying cold front. As the ridge axis shifts
equatorward in response, expect light easterly winds early in the
period to gradually shift southeasterly. This will bring the
better isolated to scattered thunderstorm coverage to western
areas initially, with a shift towards northern areas later in the
week. Temperatures should remain near seasonal norms during this
time.

Marine...

easterly winds of 5 to 10 knots are expected into early next week.

A 2 foot northeast swell will affect the atlantic waters of palm
beach county into this weekend. This will allow seas to build to 2
to 5 feet in the atlantic this weekend, with the highest seas
offshore of palm beach county. Seas will remain at or below 2
feet in the gulf waters into the weekend.

Beach forecast...

the threat for rip currents will increase this weekend for the
palm beach county beaches in association with a northeast swell.

The risk for rip currents elsewhere in the atlantic and gulf
waters should remain low.

Preliminary point temps pops
West palm beach 89 76 88 76 50 30 30 30
fort lauderdale 88 78 88 78 40 30 30 30
miami 89 76 88 77 40 30 30 30
naples 90 73 90 74 50 40 40 40

Mfl watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Am... None.

Gm... None.

Update... 02 rag


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PEGF1 9 mi37 min 86°F 1017.9 hPa
PVGF1 - Port Everglades Channel, FL 10 mi25 min ENE 6 G 8 85°F 1018.2 hPa75°F
VAKF1 - 8723214 - Virginia Key, FL 15 mi31 min 85°F 89°F1017.6 hPa
FWYF1 - Fowey Rocks, FL 25 mi49 min NE 8.9 G 9.9 84°F 85°F1018.6 hPa (+1.5)
LKWF1 - 8722670 - Lake Worth, FL 46 mi31 min 84°F 86°F1019.6 hPa
MDKF1 48 mi109 min 89°F

Wind History for Virginia Key, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hollywood, North Perry Airport, FL6 mi1.9 hrsNE 610.00 miMostly Cloudy88°F77°F70%1018.3 hPa
Miami, Opa Locka Airport, FL8 mi1.9 hrsE 610.00 miA Few Clouds86°F75°F72%1018.2 hPa
Fort Lauderdale/Hollywood International Airport, FL8 mi1.9 hrsE 810.00 miPartly Cloudy86°F78°F77%1017.6 hPa
Miami, Miami International Airport, FL12 mi1.9 hrsE 510.00 miMostly Cloudy86°F77°F75%1018 hPa
Fort Lauderdale, Fort Lauderdale Executive Airport, FL17 mi1.9 hrsNE 610.00 miPartly Cloudy85°F75°F75%1018.1 hPa
Pompano Beach, Pompano Beach Airpark, FL21 mi1.9 hrsE 46.00 miRain81°F75°F85%1018.1 hPa

Wind History from HWO (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmN3E9E9NE9E10E11E8E5E8E7E6E3E5E6CalmNW3SW3CalmCalmCalmNE4NE6E7
1 day agoS5NE7SE5SE9SE10E7E7E9E7SE5SE6S4S4CalmNW3S7CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW4N3
2 days agoE11E11E12
G20
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G16
SE9E8E6SE6SE6SE3CalmSE3Calm--CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3E3

Tide / Current Tables for Dumfoundling Bay, Florida
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Miami Harbor Entrance, Florida Current
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Miami-South Florida, FL (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Miami, FL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.