Saturday, August19, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Marco Island, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:00AMSunset 8:00PM Saturday August 19, 2017 7:03 AM EDT (11:03 UTC) Moonrise 3:42AMMoonset 5:26PM Illumination 8% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ656 Coastal Waters From Chokoloskee To Bonita Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From East Cape Sable To Chokoloskee Fl Out 20 Nm- 408 Am Edt Sat Aug 19 2017
Today..East winds around 5 knots becoming west southwest in the afternoon. Seas less than 2 feet. Period 2 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Tonight..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas less than 2 feet. Period 2 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A chance of showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Sunday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas less than 2 feet. Period 2 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots nearshore and east 10 to 15 knots offshore. Seas around 2 feet. Period 2 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A chance of showers in the evening. A slight chance of Thunderstorms through the night. A slight chance of showers after midnight.
Monday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning...then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Monday night..East winds 10 to 15 knots nearshore and east 15 to 20 knots offshore. Seas less than 2 feet nearshore and 2 to 3 feet offshore. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday..East northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Showers likely and a chance of Thunderstorms.
Tuesday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas less than 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Wednesday..East southeast winds around 5 knots becoming south southeast in the afternoon. Seas less than 2 feet. Bay and inland waters smooth. Showers likely and a chance of Thunderstorms.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Destin Fl To Pascagoula Ms Out 60 Nm Including Mobile Bay- 1008 Pm Cdt Fri Aug 18 2017
Synopsis..Weak surface high pressure continues across the northern gulf of mexico through Saturday, leading to a persisting pattern of light northwest flow during late night and morning hours and southwest flow during afternoon hours. High pressure builds west from the western atlantic into the southeast u.s. Sunday into early next week, with local winds becoming more east to southeasterly as a result. Little change in seas expected. Winds and seas higher in and around showers and storms through the period.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Marco Island, FL
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location: 25.97, -81.71     debug


Area Discussion for - Miami-South Florida, FL
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Fxus62 kmfl 190805
afdmfl
area forecast discussion
national weather service miami fl
405 am edt Sat aug 19 2017

Discussion
Today through Sunday: satellite shows the western atlantic ridge
has been a little slower to build west, which in turn has slowed
the westward progress of the upper level low across the fl straits
and the tropical wave over the bahamas. The result being the
drier airmass will linger through most of the day across south
florida as we will remain on the subsident side of the tropical
wave. Convective coverage today should be similar to Friday.

Steering flow will be more southerly than yesterday, as we get on
the back side of the upper level low. This may allow a few more
storms to develop on the west side of the atlantic metro early in
the afternoon as the seabreeze gets going. Coverage is still
expected to favor the gulf coast with a late day seabreeze
collision, with the threat for strong and gusty storms lingering
due to the drier air and cooler temperatures aloft.

The tropical wave axis looks to cross the area late tonight,
bringing a steady increase in rain chances from east to west by
daybreak Sunday. Best chances look to be along the east coast in
the morning, then shifting westwards with time as the wave
continues marching west. Tropical airmass with warmer midlevel
temps suggest this activity will be in the form of rain with
embedded storms, with a limited, if any, strong storm threat.

The threat for a few periods of heavy rainfall remain, especially
along the east coast where the breezy east-southeast flow may
enhance coastal convergence and rainfall amounts. Showers and
storms will then wane from east to west late on Sunday, though
isolated activity may linger into the night.

Monday through Wednesday: while there will continue to be run to
run changes in the details for each day, the forecast for the
upcoming week continues to be for a wet and unsettled pattern.

Subsidence and dry air in the wake of the departing upper level low
and tropical wave will make Monday the driest day of the week.

Coverage of afternoon showers and storms will be near, or even a
little below normal. Given the brisk east-southeast flow pattern,
expect scattered showers and storms to move in from the atlantic and
across the peninsula through the day.

The tropical disturbance located 500 miles east-northeast of the
leeward island (invest 92l) has become less organized in the past 24
hours. The chances for tropical cyclone formation appear to be
decreasing with this system and conditions are only expected to be
marginally favorable for further development. As of 2 am, NHC now
gives this feature a 30% 40% chance of developing into a tropical
cyclone in 2 days and 5 days respectively as it continues moving
west- northwest north of the greater antilles and through the
bahamas early next week. The current forecast have it moving
through south florida cuba tues and wed.

Models have trended towards a more robust drying on Monday, and a
slower arrival of the deeper tropical moisture on Tuesday along with
lighter winds. This looks to shift the heavy rain threat a little
later in time, more Tuesday night and Wednesday. However we will
need to remain on ALERT as this setup, tropical moisture with a
modest east- southeast flow, can raise flooding concerns across
the area, especially along the east coast. All residents and
visitors or south florida need to continue to monitor this
tropical disturbance through the weekend.

Late next week: upper level trough digging into the eastern us will
weaken the ridge late week, allowing another unseasonable frontal
boundary to move into the state. With flow shifting out of the south-
southwest at all levels, tropical moisture will continue to be
advected across the region toward the boundary, resulting in a
continued rainy pattern that lasts through the week.

Marine East-southeast winds will prevail for the weekend and
through most of the upcoming week, gradually becoming more
southerly by late next week. Marine concerns over the next few days
will be the increasing winds and storm chances as we see two
tropical waves cross the region.

The first will arrive late tonight into Sunday, with speeds
increasing to 10-15kts overnight, and 15-20kts Sunday night into
Monday, especially over the atlantic. There won't be too much of a
lull in speeds before the second wave arrives early on Tuesday,
reinforcing the pressure gradient. Speeds look to diminish behind
this wave to 10-15kts for mid to late next week. Seas remain 2ft
or less today, building to 3-4ft on Sunday with occasional 5ft in
the atlantic on Monday.

Coverage of showers and storms is expected to increase from east to
west later today as the tropical wave approaches. Rain chances over
the open waters will be more scattered on Monday, before increasing
again with the next wave midweek.

There will be an increasing threat of rip currents this weekend
along the east coast beaches of south florida, due to the
stronger easterly wind flow.

Aviation Mostly dry conditions should prevail for the remainder
of the overnight for the TAF sites with a couple isolated showers
moving over the local coastal waters. Winds will remain light and
variable through mid morning. Aft 19 1800z, an easterly sea
breeze should begin to increase to around 10 kt. Vcsh conds may
also develop. However, expect most widespread coverage of showers
and storms late Saturday night into Sunday.

Climate Miami tied its record high of 95 on Friday, last set in
1995.

Preliminary point temps pops
West palm beach 93 79 90 82 20 50 70 20
fort lauderdale 92 80 90 82 20 50 60 20
miami 94 80 91 81 20 50 60 20
naples 93 77 93 77 30 20 50 30

Mfl watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Am... None.

Gm... None.

Discussion... 88 alm
marine... 88 alm
aviation... 27 jt
climate... 88 alm


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
RKXF1 - Rookery Bay Reserve, FL 6 mi78 min ENE 2.9 72°F 71°F
NPSF1 - 8725110 - Naples, FL 12 mi45 min E 5.1 G 7 89°F1014.5 hPa
WPLF1 - Watson Place, FL 30 mi123 min 89°F
CNBF1 - Cannon Bay, FL 33 mi123 min 89°F
LMRF1 - Lostmans River, FL 41 mi123 min 88°F
WIWF1 - Willy Willy, FL 44 mi123 min 85°F
LBRF1 - Broad River Lower, FL 45 mi183 min 86°F
FMRF1 - 8725520 - Fort Myers, FL 48 mi45 min E 2.9 G 5.1 76°F 91°F1014.4 hPa

Wind History for Naples, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Naples, Naples Municipal Airport, FL13 mi70 minNNE 310.00 miFair75°F73°F94%1014.3 hPa

Wind History from APF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE5E3S53Calm4W8W9W9NW9NW9NW8N7NE9SE6CalmE5E10N3N3CalmCalmN3E5
1 day agoNE4NE3CalmCalmN4W6W8W7W8W10E8CalmNE5SE4N6CalmE4NE5E5E5E3CalmNW3Calm
2 days agoE5E7E5--SE5NW5W8W9NW7NW10E8
G16
NE4CalmE3CalmE3NE4NE4E3E5E4E5E3NE4

Tide / Current Tables for Marco, Big Marco River, Florida
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Marco
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:47 AM EDT     2.13 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:41 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:38 AM EDT     1.11 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:01 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 11:41 AM EDT     2.82 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:26 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 06:36 PM EDT     -0.33 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:58 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.12.121.71.41.21.11.31.72.22.52.82.82.62.21.50.80.1-0.3-0.3-00.51.11.6

Tide / Current Tables for Coon Key, Florida
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Coon Key
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:47 AM EDT     3.35 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:41 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:00 AM EDT     1.48 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:01 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 11:59 AM EDT     4.00 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:25 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 07:18 PM EDT     -0.21 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:58 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.23.33.12.621.61.51.62.12.73.33.843.83.32.61.70.80.1-0.2-0.10.41.32.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Miami-South Florida, FL (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Miami, FL
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.