Tuesday, June27, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
South Padre Island, TX

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:39AMSunset 8:26PM Tuesday June 27, 2017 12:29 PM CDT (17:29 UTC) Moonrise 9:27AMMoonset 10:42PM Illumination 14% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ130 Laguna Madre From The Port Of Brownsville To The Arroyo Colorado- Laguna Madre From The Arroyo Colorado To 5 Nm North Of Port Mansfield Tx- Laguna Madre From 5 Nm North Of Port Mansfield To Baffin Bay Tx- 1023 Am Cdt Tue Jun 27 2017
Today..East winds up to 5 knots increasing to around 10 knots in the late morning and afternoon. Smooth on the bay increasing to a light chop in the late morning and afternoon. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms.
Tonight..East winds around 10 knots becoming south after midnight. A light chop on the bay subsiding to smooth after midnight. Isolated showers after midnight.
Wednesday..North winds up to 5 knots shifting northeast late in the morning, then becoming east in the afternoon. Smooth on the bay increasing to a light chop in the afternoon. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms.
Wednesday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south around 15 knots in the late evening and overnight. A light chop on the bay increasing to a moderate chop in the late evening and overnight. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
Thursday..South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast around 20 knots. A light chop on the bay increasing to choppy. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Thursday night..Southeast winds around 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots late in the evening, then becoming south around 20 knots after midnight. Choppy on the bay subsiding to a moderate chop late in the evening, then increasing to choppy after midnight.
Friday..Southeast winds around 20 knots. Choppy on the bay.
Friday night..Southeast winds around 20 knots. Choppy on the bay.
Saturday..Southeast winds around 20 knots. Choppy on the bay.
Saturday night..Southeast winds around 15 knots. A moderate chop on the bay.
GMZ100 Synopsis For Baffin Bay To Rio Grande Out 60 Nm- 1023 Am Cdt Tue Jun 27 2017
Synopsis..Light winds and low seas will continue to be supported by broad high pressure extending across the western gulf of mexico that meets a weak trough of low pressure anchored along the lower texas coast through Wednesday. An upper level disturbance in the area will continue to produce scattered to numerous showers and a few Thunderstorms. The high will move off the southeast u.s. Coast and strengthen Wednesday night and Thursday while low pressure deepens across the southern plains. The high will remain stationary through Saturday while a general trough of low pressure continues in west texas. The gradient between these systems will increase winds and seas Wednesday night and Thursday, continuing through Saturday. Small craft advisories may be needed for portions of the waters Thursday night through Saturday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near South Padre Island, TX
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location: 26.11, -97.16     debug


Area Discussion for - Brownsville, TX
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Fxus64 kbro 271146 aaa
afdbro
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service brownsville tx
646 am cdt Tue jun 27 2017

Discussion Updated for latest 12z aviation discussion below.

Aviation Little change to the current forecast as day breaks
across the rio grande valley. Forecast for vicinity showers (vcsh)
is on track for the first few hours of the morning, and despite
struggles for the rain to survive its trek onshore for the hours
between 3 and 6 am, latest radar shows enough of a band set to
move into brownsville's airspace by around 7-730 am and with
enough reflectivity (up to 45-50 dbz in small pockets) to add low
MVFR visibility in tropical-type showers. Same for
harlingen valley, just starting an hour later. Slow movement and
situation favoring the coast will save mcallen from all but a
possible two hour window for tempo MVFR ceilings soon after
sunrise, similar to what occurred Monday morning.

The somewhat difficult part of the forecast follows for late
morning through mid afternoon. Confidence remains low for
forecasting direct restrictions at terminals from thunder based on
reasoning provided in discussion below and in earlier discussions
about deeper moisture and forcing being best offshore. With this
in mind, did not include additional tempo groups for brownsville
and harlingen and let the prior forecast ride, which includes a
clear-out this evening with light to near calm winds, extended
through daybreak Wednesday.

For mcallen miller, did add a prob30 group for any late developing
thunder around 4 or 5 pm; did not want to go with tempo based on
40 percent rain chances and uncertainty on a cell ending up at the
field, but this may need to be updated on the fly in the window
between 19z and 22z with the next full forecast package. At
mcallen, too, the weather will quickly clear out at or before
sunset followed by a steady stateVFR forecast with light winds
thereafter.

52 bsg

Prev discussion issued 424 am cdt Tue jun 27 2017
short term (now through Wednesday): after some good fanfare for the
potential for more widespread rainfall than even Sunday produced,
Monday was a bit of a letdown, as precipitation coverage was largely
scattered (30-40 percent coverage) and area-wide average totals were
actually lower than those on Sunday, with just a few small pockets
of radar estimated 1-2 inches. Thunder was also minimal, a sign of
the lack of organized convection across deep south texas and the rio
grande valley. One of the big picture reasons for the failure to
launch may have been as simple as the position of the mid level
trough, which remained over the western gulf rather than sliding
inland from east to west, which would have brought the more
favorable east side of the mid level trough axis onshore. Instead,
atmospheric flow up to 500 mb was more *northerly* rather than
southerly; unless associated with a vigorous westward moving wave or
tropical cyclone, such flow is unfavorable here for big summer
convection.

For today, there is little change to the position of the trough
axis. The GFS is clearest on this situation, but even the recently
arrived ECMWF which has a vorticity center rotating northwest to
southeast moving through southeast texas favors the deeper moisture
associated with the better forcing over the gulf waters mainly east
of the coastal bend through southeast texas today. By tonight and
especially Wednesday, all models hold or shift the deeper moisture
into the west central gulf and edge deeper drying into parts, if not
all, of deep south texas.

With all this in mind, the sensible weather forecast is still a bit
unsettled today with some improvements on Wednesday - with diurnal
quieting once again tonight. By unsettled, we're talking about
taking the umbrella along but not canceling outdoor activities as
the duration of rain will be short in most cases even as
precipitation tends to move slowly - there's just not enough
forcing to maintain anything more than pop and and rain-out type
showers. As for thunder, we can't rule out any but lightning
storms will be more isolated than scattered. Temperatures today
will be very close to those on Monday, though did not go as high
as 98 in mcallen as boundaries and cloud cover should be enough to
keep more in line with mid 90s.

For tonight, could see leftovers this evening across the
ranchlands rio grande plains; thereafter, quiet conditions except
for another round of scattered showers across most of the gulf
waters that will struggle to edge inland - so removed mention for
land areas and kept isolated-scattered over the water.

Reduced rain chances a hair on Wednesday, holding onto mentionable
over the lower-mid valley to the gulf. GFS time-height sections
show quite a bit of drying above 700 mb for the upper valley (rh
below 10 percent on average) which would kill of convection with
northerly flow all the way down to 850 mb. That dry air slides east
toward the coast through the day and would not surprise to see any
convection end over all but the gulf waters, including the beach -
but still enough moisture to make case for isolated to scattered
showers and a few storms through part of the afternoon. With more
of a partly sunny vs. Mostly cloudy sky the GFS temperature numbers
look best, which was close to the inherited forecast so just a
slight bump in temperatures.

Long term (Wednesday night through Monday): the forecast reasoning
for the long term portion of the forecast remains persistent and
stable. An elongated mid-level weakness over the northwest gulf of
mexico will gradually be replaced by 500 mb high pressure centered
over both the bahamas and the gulf of california that will build
west and east, respectively, and come to dominate the weather
pattern over the entire gulf of mexico, deep south texas, and the
rio grande valley. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
over inland portions of the bro cwfa and the adjacent coastal
waters Wednesday night and Thursday will transition to dry weather
for the remainder of the forecast period as the aforementioned
synoptic pattern comes to fruition. With diminishing cloud cover
and precipitation chances ending, near normal temperatures early
on will become well above normal.

Marine (now through Wednesday): the action is only in the
weather part of the forecast, where today could still see numerous
showers and a few thunderstorms and kept this idea over the
waters beyond 20 nautical miles this morning where activity
underway and forecast to continue based on deeper moisture
arguments above. Elsewhere, scattered showers will prevail most of
the time, with some dips near the coastline this afternoon
through midnight or so before redevelopment of scattered coverage
which will hold into most of Wednesday. Stronger cells could
produce gusts and brief choppy waters. Otherwise, virtually no
pressure gradient through the period will lead to light east to
northeast flow and seas, which have fallen to 2-2.5 feet, will
continue in that ballpark through at least tonight. Could see
slightly higher seas Wednesday but still well below any
highlights.

Wednesday night through Monday: small craft exercise caution
and or small craft advisory winds and or seas continue to be
expected through most of the long term portion of the marine
forecast as high pressure over the gulf of mexico interacts with a
low pressure system that will drop into the texas panhandle. More
favorable marine conditions are likely during the final 48 hours
of the forecast period as the pressure gradient weakens.

Bro watches warnings advisories
Tx... None.

Gm... None.

This product is also available on the web at:
http: weather.Gov rgv


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BZST2 3 mi42 min NE 4.1 G 5.1
PCGT2 - 8779748 - South Padre Island CGS, TX 3 mi42 min SSE 2.9 G 5.1 84°F 1013.8 hPa
PTIT2 - 8779770 - Port Isabel, TX 4 mi42 min 85°F 87°F1013.4 hPa
42044 - PS-1126 TABS J 8 mi90 min S 5.8 G 7.8 81°F 84°F1013.6 hPa (+0.4)73°F
RLIT2 12 mi42 min NNE 5.1 G 6 81°F 84°F1013.5 hPa
PMNT2 34 mi42 min 78°F 86°F1014 hPa
42045 - PI-745 TABS K 36 mi90 min SSE 7.8 G 7.8 78°F 84°F1013.6 hPa (+0.3)

Wind History for South Padre Island C.G Station, TX
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Port Isabel, Port Isabel-Cameron County Airport, TX10 mi37 minVar 310.00 miMostly Cloudy89°F71°F55%1012.9 hPa
Brownsville, Brownsville / South Padre Island International Airport, TX20 mi37 minN 010.00 miA Few Clouds84°F75°F74%1013.2 hPa

Wind History from SPL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE7S7S10S8S8S9S8W5SW11S14SW13SW8SW6N4E3NE7NE6E4E5E6E4E3E4Calm
1 day agoS8S7S4SW5NW3N3N3N6E4NE4E5E13SE16NW8S4S7S5CalmCalmSE6SE6SE5SE6SE5
2 days agoSE7SE7SE8SE3S5S6S6SW5NW3NW4SW8SW11S20SW16
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Tide / Current Tables for Queen Isabella Causeway (east end), Texas
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Queen Isabella Causeway (east end)
Click for Map
Tue -- 06:38 AM CDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:00 AM CDT     1.17 feet High Tide
Tue -- 10:26 AM CDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 08:24 PM CDT     Sunset
Tue -- 11:42 PM CDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.6-0.5-0.4-0.10.20.50.811.11.21.11.110.90.90.90.90.80.70.60.40.2-0-0.2

Tide / Current Tables for Matamoros, Tamaulipas, Mexico
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Matamoros
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:01 AM CDT     -0.50 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:40 AM CDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:58 AM CDT     1.34 feet High Tide
Tue -- 10:28 AM CDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 02:38 PM CDT     1.04 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 03:48 PM CDT     1.05 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:25 PM CDT     Sunset
Tue -- 11:43 PM CDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.5-0.4-0.300.30.711.21.31.31.31.21.11.1111110.80.60.40.1-0.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of SouthCentralPlains    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Brownsville, TX (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Brownsville, TX
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.