Sunday, December17, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
South Padre Island, TX

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:09AMSunset 5:43PM Sunday December 17, 2017 7:35 AM CST (13:35 UTC) Moonrise 6:29AMMoonset 5:33PM Illumination 1% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ130 Laguna Madre From The Port Of Brownsville To The Arroyo Colorado- Laguna Madre From The Arroyo Colorado To 5 Nm North Of Port Mansfield Tx- Laguna Madre From 5 Nm North Of Port Mansfield To Baffin Bay Tx- 414 Am Cst Sun Dec 17 2017
Today..North winds around 5 knots increasing to 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Smooth on the bay increasing to a light chop in the afternoon.
Tonight..East winds around 5 knots. Smooth on the bay. Slight chance of rain showers in the evening, then chance of rain showers after midnight.
Monday..South winds around 5 knots becoming southeast in the afternoon. Smooth on the bay increasing to a light chop in the afternoon. Areas of fog in the morning. Chance of rain showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms through the day.
Monday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. A light chop on the bay. Slight chance of showers through the night. Slight chance of Thunderstorms after midnight.
Tuesday..South winds 5 to 10 knots. A light chop on the bay. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots shifting northwest after midnight. A light chop on the bay. Slight chance of Thunderstorms in the evening. Slight chance of showers through the night.
Wednesday..North winds 5 to 10 knots shifting northeast in the afternoon. A light chop on the bay.
Wednesday night..East winds around 5 knots becoming southeast after midnight. Smooth on the bay increasing to a light chop after midnight.
Thursday..South winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. A light chop on the bay increasing to a moderate chop in the afternoon.
Thursday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots. A moderate chop on the bay. Slight chance of showers.
GMZ100 Synopsis For Baffin Bay To Rio Grande Out 60 Nm- 414 Am Cst Sun Dec 17 2017
Synopsis..Light winds and lower seas to persist through much next week with weak high pressure becoming established over the eastern gulf. North to northeast winds today becoming southeast Monday and Tuesday as a coastal trough develops along the lower texas coast. A weak front moves across the region Tuesday night and Wednesday but with no appreciable increase in winds or seas.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near South Padre Island, TX
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location: 26.11, -97.16     debug


Area Discussion for - Brownsville, TX
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Fxus64 kbro 171144 aaa
afdbro
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service brownsville tx
544 am cst Sun dec 17 2017

Discussion Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

Aviation Low clouds and areas of dense fog will make for poor
flying conditions this morning with little improvement through the
day. Lifr conditions dominate the region with isolated vlirf due
to fog. Ceilings rise ever so slightly but with a low level
inversion not expected to break ifr cig conditions prevail today
with MVFR on the mist fog at times. Coastal trough develops
tonight with the inversion strengthening with CIGS and vsby
lowering back down to lifr.

Prev discussion issued 353 am cst Sun dec 17 2017

Clouds & dreary weather stick around with slow warming...

short term (today through Monday): deep south texas and the rio
grande valley will continue to be socked in by low thick clouds with
periods of fog, some dense in the morning and overnight through
Monday. A large upper trough taking residency over NW mexico and
the desert SW to support the development of a coastal trough off the
lower tx coast later tonight and Monday.

Areas of fog overnight has been dense in some area, mainly in the
far western counties and over the lower valley where visibilities at
times have dropped between 1 4 to 1 mile. Continuing to monitor for
a dense fog advisory but with coverage limited and the patchy dense
nature will hold off at this time. In any case, the fog and low
clouds are expected to stick around much of the morning with slow
recovery through the day. Southerly flow, warm air advection, just
off surface will continue to surge low level moisture into the
region but with no substantial convergence or lift until later
tonight and Monday, no rain is anticipated outside of the mist and
drizzle supported by the fog. Temperatures remain a challenge with
little to no change in temperatures overnight and with the low thick
overcast temperatures will be very slow to climb. All model guidance
remains warmer then the current ongoing forecast but does show
temperatures continuing to rise tonight as warm air advection
strengthens.

For tonight and Monday... Another round of fog is expected as low
inversion remains in tact with plenty of low level moisture in
place. Expect areas of fog some dense very similar to what has
occurred last night and early this morning. Rain chances increase
across the region later tonight and more so on Monday as the coastal
trough strengthens the upper low edges closer to the region.

Elevated instability also increases with the WAA so will maintain a
small chance of thunderstorms in the forecast. Temperatures show a
much bigger rise on Monday but with the low inversion remaining in
tact will continue to keep temperatures on the lower end of guidance.

Long term (Monday night through Saturday): the long term starts
off with continued mostly cloudy skies with a few scattered
showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two. Wind will be southerly
downstream of a stalled frontal boundary just to our north and
west. Eventually, weak surface cyclogenesis occurs across southern
tx and the low will quickly slide northeast into the lower ms
river valley just ahead of its parent upper level trough. This
will allow for the aforementioned weak front to swing through as a
"cool" front allowing for a slight drop in temperatures on
Wednesday with maxts generally staying in the 70s area wide.

Aloft, h5 flow remains rather progressive with another trough
dropping into the four-corners region by late in the week. This
will help push a cold front toward the rgv. Unfortunately, some
subtle changes have occurred over the last 24 hours, which has
knocked back confidence just a tad. Globals are a bit slower with
the progression of the front... Now bringing it into the area late
Friday night or early Saturday. Because of that we had to bump up
Friday maxts by quite a bit, but didn't go as high as guidance
suggests yet just in case the next run or two brings the front
through early Friday again.

Furthermore, the air mass behind the initial front doesn't look as
cold as we thought just 24 hours ago. Again, increased
temperatures just a little more, even behind the front. The 12z
ecmwf was certainly a warmer outlier, however, 00z GFS and ecm are
agreeing on only a slightly warmer and maybe a bit drier solution
next weekend... Though we'd like a bit more consistency before we
start removing pops. So, where did the cold air go that we were
advertising for next weekend? Not to worry! Globals show a
reinforcing shot of cold air by late next weekend as the arctic
front finally arrives fashionably late Sunday. Frye 55
marine (today through Monday): the eastward departure of a low
pressure area will continue to produce a light northern wind and
moderate sea early today. Winds to gradually veer ne-e-se over the
next 24 hours as an upper level low moves into NW mexico and a
coastal trough develops along the lower texas coast. Winds remain
light across the laguna madre and light to moderate over the gulf
waters with no small craft advisories or exercise caution
conditoins anticipated at this time. No significant rain today
however some showers and thunderstorms may increase Monday with
the coastal trough in the vicinity.

(Monday night through Saturday): light to moderate winds and seas
to start the period. There may be a slight uptick to winds wave
heights as a weak low pressure forms across southern texas. This
will allow showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two to develop
across our coastal waters. This low pressure quickly pushes
northeast and slides a very weak cold front through the region
shifting winds to a more northerly direction by late Tuesday,
however, not expecting anything more than moderate winds seas at
this time.

Rather benign marine conditions expected through Thursday,
however, winds will begin to shift southerly once again out ahead
of our next cold front due into the region late Friday. As this
frontal boundary moves through, expect seas to climb into the 6 to
8 ft level and winds will near SCA thresholds. Also, a chance of
showers and perhaps a rumble of thunder or two can be expected,
especially along or just ahead of the frontal boundary Friday
night.

Preliminary point temps pops
Bayview port isabel 63 61 75 67 10 30 30 20
brownsville 62 60 74 68 10 20 30 10
harlingen 61 59 73 66 10 20 30 10
mcallen 61 59 73 66 0 20 20 20
rio grande city 60 56 71 63 10 10 20 20
south padre island 65 64 74 71 10 30 30 20

Bro watches warnings advisories
Tx... None.

Gm... None.

This product is also available on the web at:
http: weather.Gov rgv
59 55


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BZST2 3 mi54 min N 2.9 G 4.1 50°F 61°F1016.6 hPa
PCGT2 - 8779748 - South Padre Island CGS, TX 3 mi48 min N 2.9 G 5.1 51°F 1017.9 hPa
PTIT2 - 8779770 - Port Isabel, TX 4 mi48 min NW 1.9 G 2.9 50°F 61°F1017.4 hPa
RLIT2 12 mi48 min NW 4.1 G 5.1 49°F 64°F1017.7 hPa
PMNT2 34 mi48 min 49°F 56°F1017.5 hPa
42045 - PI-745 TABS K 36 mi186 min N 7.8 G 9.7 75°F1016.6 hPa

Wind History for South Padre Island C.G Station, TX
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Port Isabel, Port Isabel-Cameron County Airport, TX10 mi43 minNNW 30.75 miFog/Mist47°F46°F100%1017.5 hPa
Brownsville, Brownsville / South Padre Island International Airport, TX20 mi43 minN 08.00 miMostly Cloudy51°F51°F100%1017.7 hPa

Wind History from SPL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE7S7S10S8S8S9S8W5SW11S14SW13SW8SW6N4E3NE7NE6E4E5E6E4E3E4Calm
1 day agoS8S7S4SW5NW3N3N3N6E4NE4E5E13SE16NW8S4S7S5CalmCalmSE6SE6SE5SE6SE5
2 days agoSE7SE7SE8SE3S5S6S6SW5NW3NW4SW8SW11S20SW16
G21
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S15S18S15S14S10SW9SW8S9S7

Tide / Current Tables for Queen Isabella Causeway (east end), Texas
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Queen Isabella Causeway (east end)
Click for Map
Sun -- 06:29 AM CST     Moonrise
Sun -- 07:09 AM CST     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:21 AM CST     -0.20 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:32 PM CST     Moonset
Sun -- 05:40 PM CST     Sunset
Sun -- 05:50 PM CST     1.41 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.110.90.70.50.30.1-0.1-0.2-0.2-0.10.10.40.70.91.21.31.41.41.41.31.31.21.2

Tide / Current Tables for Matamoros, Tamaulipas, Mexico
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Matamoros
Click for Map
Sun -- 06:30 AM CST     Moonrise
Sun -- 07:10 AM CST     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:24 AM CST     -0.38 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:34 PM CST     Moonset
Sun -- 05:42 PM CST     Sunset
Sun -- 05:44 PM CST     1.28 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
10.90.80.60.40.2-0.1-0.3-0.4-0.4-0.2-00.20.50.811.21.31.31.21.21.11.11

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of SouthCentralPlains    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Brownsville, TX (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Brownsville, TX
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.