Sunday, October22, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
South Padre Island, TX

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:32AMSunset 6:56PM Sunday October 22, 2017 2:19 PM CDT (19:19 UTC) Moonrise 8:58AMMoonset 8:12PM Illumination 7% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ130 Laguna Madre From The Port Of Brownsville To The Arroyo Colorado- Laguna Madre From The Arroyo Colorado To 5 Nm North Of Port Mansfield Tx- Laguna Madre From 5 Nm North Of Port Mansfield To Baffin Bay Tx- 1033 Am Cdt Sun Oct 22 2017
.small craft advisory for winds in effect from 5 pm cdt this afternoon through Monday morning...
Rest of today..West winds around 5 knots becoming north 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Smooth on the bay increasing to a moderate chop in the afternoon. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tonight..North winds 20 knots. Choppy on the bay.
Monday..North winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Choppy on the bay subsiding to a moderate chop in the afternoon.
Monday night..North winds 5 to 10 knots. A light chop on the bay.
Tuesday..North winds 10 to 15 knots. A moderate chop on the bay.
Tuesday night..North winds 10 to 15 knots. A moderate chop on the bay.
Wednesday..North winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northeast 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. A moderate chop on the bay subsiding to a light chop in the afternoon.
Wednesday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots shifting south after midnight. A light chop on the bay.
Thursday..South winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. A moderate chop on the bay increasing to choppy in the afternoon.
Thursday night..South winds 15 to 20 knots. Choppy on the bay.
GMZ100 Synopsis For Baffin Bay To Rio Grande Out 60 Nm- 1033 Am Cdt Sun Oct 22 2017
Synopsis..Adverse marine conditions are expected through many of the next several days due to the passage of a cold front, a reinforcing surge of air, and a tighter surface pressure gradient. Small craft advisories are in effect, with additional advisories likely as the week progresses.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near South Padre Island, TX
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location: 26.11, -97.16     debug


Area Discussion for - Brownsville, TX
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Fxus64 kbro 221729 aab
afdbro
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service brownsville tx
1229 pm cdt Sun oct 22 2017

Discussion Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

Aviation Cold front progressing through south texas currently,
as is progged to reach the deep south texas airports between 4 and
6pm local. Front not expected to have a significant northerly
wind surge in its wake, but some shower activity is possible along
the immediate boundary, with tempo lowering of cigs. Dry air
moves in quickly behind the front, with skies clearing promptly
right around sunset. Skc expected overnight with light north
winds.

Prev discussion issued 638 am cdt Sun oct 22 2017
discussion... Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

Aviation... Surface observations suggest that patchy fog and areas
of low cloud decks have developed. However, in-situ web cameras
indicate that the fog is likely confined to near ground level, so
mifg has been placed in the current issuance of tafs along with
the low clouds. Veering and increasing winds will occur as a cold
front approaches and sweeps through the area.VFR should prevail
beginning after sunrise this morning and then remain in place
through the day and overnight hours tonight.

Prev discussion... Issued 344 am cdt Sun oct 22 2017
short term (now through Monday): the most recent surface
analysis indicates a cold front from roughly bonham to san angelo
to EL paso. This front is expected to sweep through deep south
texas and the rio grande valley today, producing generally
isolated showers and thunderstorms from about sunrise to sunset.

After the passage of the cold front, a massive influx of dry air
and a mid-level flow out of the northwest will produce dry weather
tonight and Monday. Above normal temperatures today in advance of
the front will be tempered to more near normal values tonight and
Monday in the wake of the front.

Long term (Monday night through Saturday): models are in pretty
good agreement with the synoptic pattern through most of the week
with deep troughing of low pressure across the eastern half of
the country with ridging centered over southern california.

A series of storm systems will track through the northern plains
and great lakes, which will continue to bring cold fronts through
the eastern half of the u.S. And as far south as deep south
texas.

The first several days of the long term will be pleasant with
warm and comfortable afternoon highs and cool morning lows,
thanks to very dry air settling in through early Thursday. Besides
temperatures, the rest is fairly benign with virtually no rain
chances. Models show precipitable water values dropping to 0.50"
or lower, which would near record low moisture for late october.

Any notable moisture will be confined to below 850mb, which would
make it very difficult for convection to develop, especially with
moderate north winds throughout the column. Early Thursday,
surface high pressure will move off to the eastern gulf, veering
winds back to the S se. Temperatures and humidity will quickly
increase and return back to normal with highs in the upper 80s for
most of the area.

Friday and beyond, models begin to diverge. The GFS brings our
next cold front Friday afternoon with a much deeper low pressure
system over the great lakes, and the ECMWF brings the front
through on Saturday with a much weaker system. Decided to go with
a late-Friday passage, but with modest confidence. Model guidance
is showing much lower 1000-500mb thicknesses with this front, so
timing will be very important with regard to the temperature
forecast. Dropped temperatures a few degrees on Saturday with mos
guidance showing highs only reaching the low 70s in some areas
with lows on Sunday morning in the 50s. Similar to the last front,
it appears there won't be much of a deep moisture return, so rain
chances are fairly low. Have kept mainly isolated pops for the
coastal and marine areas with this package.

Marine (now through Monday): the passage of a cold front through
the lower texas coastal waters today will increase winds and build
seas beginning late this afternoon and lasting through the overnight
hours. Thus, a small craft advisory has been raised for this time
period for the laguna madre and gulf of mexico waters east of padre
island. Sea heights may remain raised enough on Monday to require
the continuation of the advisory for the nearshore and or offshore
gulf of mexico waters for a portion or all of the day.

Monday night through Friday: moderate north winds will continue
on Tuesday with reinforcing high pressure bringing another shot of
stronger north winds Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday with small
craft advisories possible. Winds and seas will briefly improve on
Thursday as surface high pressure moves into the eastern gulf and
south winds return. Seas will likely deteriorate again just ahead
and behind the next cold frontal passage on Friday. Advisories
will again be possible through the weekend.

Bro watches warnings advisories
Tx... None.

Gm... Small craft advisory for winds from 5 pm this afternoon to 7 am
cdt Monday for gmz130-132-135.

Small craft advisory from 5 pm this afternoon to 7 am cdt Monday
for gmz150-155-170-175.

This product is also available on the web at:
http: weather.Gov rgv
64 64


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BZST2 3 mi50 min ENE 9.9 G 11 82°F 1015.5 hPa
PCGT2 - 8779748 - South Padre Island CGS, TX 3 mi50 min NE 8 G 11 84°F 1016.7 hPa
PTIT2 - 8779770 - Port Isabel, TX 4 mi50 min NE 8 G 9.9 83°F 81°F1015.9 hPa
RLIT2 12 mi50 min NE 8.9 G 9.9 84°F 80°F1016.3 hPa
PMNT2 34 mi50 min 87°F 81°F1016.4 hPa
42045 - PI-745 TABS K 36 mi170 min WNW 1.9 G 3.9 82°F1016.8 hPa

Wind History for South Padre Island C.G Station, TX
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Port Isabel, Port Isabel-Cameron County Airport, TX10 mi27 minNE 1110.00 miPartly Cloudy89°F78°F70%1015.8 hPa
Brownsville, Brownsville / South Padre Island International Airport, TX20 mi27 minno data10.00 miPartly Cloudy91°F75°F59%1015.8 hPa

Wind History from SPL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE7S7S10S8S8S9S8W5SW11S14SW13SW8SW6N4E3NE7NE6E4E5E6E4E3E4Calm
1 day agoS8S7S4SW5NW3N3N3N6E4NE4E5E13SE16NW8S4S7S5CalmCalmSE6SE6SE5SE6SE5
2 days agoSE7SE7SE8SE3S5S6S6SW5NW3NW4SW8SW11S20SW16
G21
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S15S18S15S14S10SW9SW8S9S7

Tide / Current Tables for Queen Isabella Causeway (east end), Texas
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Queen Isabella Causeway (east end)
Click for Map
Sun -- 07:31 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:57 AM CDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 11:06 AM CDT     0.36 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:54 PM CDT     Sunset
Sun -- 08:06 PM CDT     1.77 feet High Tide
Sun -- 09:12 PM CDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.51.41.41.41.31.21.10.90.70.50.40.40.40.50.711.21.51.61.71.81.71.71.6

Tide / Current Tables for Matamoros, Tamaulipas, Mexico
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Matamoros
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:54 AM CDT     1.56 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 02:46 AM CDT     1.57 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:32 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:58 AM CDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 11:07 AM CDT     0.50 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:55 PM CDT     Sunset
Sun -- 07:59 PM CDT     1.88 feet High Tide
Sun -- 09:14 PM CDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.61.61.61.61.51.51.31.10.90.70.60.50.50.70.91.11.41.61.81.91.91.91.81.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of SouthCentralPlains    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Brownsville, TX (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Brownsville, TX
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.