Tuesday, May23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Naples, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:35AMSunset 8:12PM Tuesday May 23, 2017 8:30 PM EDT (00:30 UTC) Moonrise 4:00AMMoonset 4:58PM Illumination 3% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ656 Coastal Waters From Chokoloskee To Bonita Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From East Cape Sable To Chokoloskee Fl Out 20 Nm- 411 Pm Edt Tue May 23 2017
.small craft exercise caution offshore tonight...
.small craft advisory may be required Wednesday or Thursday...
Tonight..South winds 10 to 15 knots nearshore and south 15 to 20 knots offshore. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Period 3 seconds. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop.
Wednesday..South southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas to 5 feet nearshore and 4 to 6 feet with occasional to 8 feet offshore. Period 4 seconds. Bay and inland waters choppy in exposed areas. A slight chance of showers in the morning...then showers and Thunderstorms likely in the afternoon.
Wednesday night..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots nearshore and southwest 20 to 25 knots offshore. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas to 5 feet nearshore and 5 to 7 feet with occasional to 9 feet offshore. Period 6 seconds. Bay and inland waters choppy in exposed areas. Showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday..West southwest winds 15 to 20 knots nearshore and west southwest 20 to 25 knots offshore. NEarshore, seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas to 6 feet. Offshore, seas 5 to 7 feet with occasional seas to 9 feet subsiding to 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas to 6 feet in the afternoon. Period 6 seconds. Bay and inland waters choppy in exposed areas. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Thursday night..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A chance of showers after midnight.
Friday..East northeast winds around 5 knots becoming south southwest in the evening. Seas less than 2 feet nearshore and 2 to 3 feet offshore. Bay and inland waters smooth. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Friday night..West winds around 5 knots becoming northeast after midnight. Seas around 2 feet. Bay and inland waters smooth. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Saturday..East northeast winds around 5 knots becoming southwest in the afternoon. Seas less than 2 feet. Bay and inland waters smooth. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Saturday night..Southwest winds around 5 knots becoming southeast after midnight. Seas less than 2 feet. Bay and inland waters smooth.
Sunday..East southeast winds around 5 knots becoming southwest in the afternoon. Seas less than 2 feet. Bay and inland waters smooth. A chance of showers.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Destin Fl To Pascagoula Ms Out 60 Nm Including Mobile Bay- 350 Pm Cdt Tue May 23 2017
Synopsis..A surface trough just north of the coastal waters will result in strong gusty winds through early evening with winds diminishing some late tonight. Winds increase out of the west and northwest on Wednesday as a cold front moves through. Winds diminish on Thursday and return to a southerly flow by the end of the week as high pressure moves east across the florida peninsula.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Naples, FL
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location: 26.14, -81.79     debug


Area Discussion for - Miami-South Florida, FL
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Fxus62 kmfl 240015
afdmfl
area forecast discussion
national weather service miami fl
815 pm edt Tue may 23 2017

Aviation
The weather is forecast to be quiet for the rest of the evening,
and into tomorrow morning. High pressure, to the east, is
weakening ahead of a cold front that will move into the area late
tomorrow. This will allow for showers and thunderstorms to be
possible, particularly after 18z. Also, the wind will pick up in
the morning to around 15kts, with gusts of around 25kts. By mid-
day, the sustained wind is forecast to increase to near 20kts.

While gusts are possible, they are forecast to be around 25kts,
thus not shown in the tafs for the afternoon. Otherwise,VFR
conditions currently forecast through the TAF period, although
some brief MVFR to ifr will be possible with any heavy showers or
storms tomorrow afternoon.

Prev discussion issued 413 pm edt Tue may 23 2017

Strong to even severe storms possible late Wednesday into
Thursday morning...

discussion...

a trough of low pressure located over the central united states
will move east this week and be over the eastern united states by
late in the week. The trough will also strengthen while moving
eastward, pushing a stationary front over the southeastern united
states southward into the florida peninsula. The front is forecast
to enter the south florida area by late Thursday as it weakens and
dissipates across the region. Main concern this forecast cycle is
the potential for strong storms with a few severe possible late
Wednesday into Thursday morning.

Wednesday through Thursday... The wind flow will become southwesterly
on Wednesday and Wednesday night ahead of the cold front bringing in
deep tropical moisture to the area. Showers and thunderstorms are
forecast to develop over south florida Wednesday afternoon through
Thursday with the best coverage Wednesday evening into Thursday.

The latest short range models continue to show a mid to upper
level jet of 100 to 130 knots moving around the base of the trough
Wednesday night through ga north central florida along with a low
level jet of 40 to 50 knots. ECMWF and NAM bring this low level yet
as far south as the lake okee region. This will allow for a possible
squall line to develop on Wednesday over northern florida and move
southward into south florida Wednesday night into Thursday morning.

At this time, give or take a few hours, the best timing looks to be
the evening hours toward midnight SW coast and lake okee region and
se florida overnight towards Thursday morning. Discrete strong
storms could also develop well ahead of this main activity across
south florida Wednesday afternoon. The low level front weakens
considerably on Thursday lagging well behind main upper level
forcing resulting in cloudiness and wet conditions lingering through
much of the day before conditions begin to dry out overnight.

Winds gusting in excess of 40 to 50 kts will be the main concern
primarily with the main activity laid out above. Hail is a concern
but to a lesser extent and the best chance will be tomorrow
afternoon into early evening. NAM continues to show 0-1 km helicity
values in the 200-300 m2 s2 range across SW florida and lake okee
regions overnight tomorrow night with the main activity. Therefore a
tornado or two cannot be ruled out.

All of that certainly justifies the slight risk of severe weather
for the northern areas SPC currently has in place for tomorrow
and tomorrow night with a marginal risk elsewhere.

The pwat values will also be increasing from around 1.5 inches
Wednesday morning to around 2 inches Wednesday night and Thursday
which is well above normal for this time of year. This will allow
for some heavy rainfall to occur over the area. However, the
grounds are dry to very dry over south florida, and the western
areas of south florida are also in a severe to extreme drought
conditions. Therefore, flooding concerns with this activity are
limited at this time but will continue to monitor.

Extended forecast... The trough of low pressure will continue to
move east into the western atlantic waters this weekend. This will
allow for high pressure to build into south florida this weekend
into early next week, and allow for both sea breezes to develop and
push inland. Therefore, a more typical summer pattern with a slight
chance to a chance of showers and thunderstorms are possible each
afternoon this weekend into early next week mainly over the interior
areas of south florida.

Marine...

wind speeds will increase 20 knots for Wednesday and Wednesday night.

The winds will then remain southwesterly on Thursday, as the
speeds decrease through the day. Small craft advisories will
likely be needed starting tomorrow.

Beach forecast...

the threat of rip currents will continue to be low for the east coast
beaches through end of the week, but the gulf coast beaches will
likely increase to a high risk on Wednesday and Thursday due to
the southwest breezy conditions.

Climate...

the east coast metro areas could see near record highs for
Wednesday, due to the breezy southwest wind flow. Here are the
record highs and forecast highs for the east coast areas for
Wednesday.

05 24 2017 05 24 17
forecast highs record highs
mia 93 94 - 2013
fll 93 94 - 1951
pbi 94 96 - 1917

Preliminary point temps pops
West palm beach 77 92 75 87 10 50 60 70
fort lauderdale 77 91 76 90 20 50 60 70
miami 77 91 76 89 20 50 60 70
naples 77 87 78 85 10 70 80 70

Mfl watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Am... None.

Gm... None.

Discussion... 52 ps
marine... 52 ps
aviation... 13


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NPSF1 - 8725110 - Naples, FL 1 mi48 min S 15 G 17 85°F1012 hPa
RKXF1 - Rookery Bay Reserve, FL 8 mi105 min S 8.9 84°F 73°F
FMRF1 - 8725520 - Fort Myers, FL 35 mi54 min SSW 6 G 12 83°F 88°F1011.6 hPa
WPLF1 - Watson Place, FL 41 mi90 min 85°F
CNBF1 - Cannon Bay, FL 44 mi90 min 86°F

Wind History for Naples, FL
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Naples, Naples Municipal Airport, FL1 mi37 minSSW 1110.00 miA Few Clouds83°F73°F72%1012 hPa

Wind History from APF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW8S4S4E6SE5SE7SE5E4E4SE5SE5SE3SE8S13
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1 day agoE10NW5NE3CalmE4NE3CalmNE4N3NE3E5NE5E7E7SE7S5SW11SW15SW15SW13SW13SW13SW11SW9
2 days agoSE12SE11SE8SE8E6E5E6E4E5E6E4NE5E7SE10S554SW7SW12SW13SW13SW11SW8SW6

Tide / Current Tables for Naples, Naples Bay, north end, Florida
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Naples
Click for Map
Tue -- 04:59 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:40 AM EDT     0.74 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:37 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:41 AM EDT     3.07 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:57 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 06:32 PM EDT     -0.16 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:11 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.72.52.11.61.10.80.811.52.12.6332.82.31.60.80.2-0.1-0.10.20.81.62.3

Tide / Current Tables for Cocohatchee River, U.S. 41 bridge, Florida
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Cocohatchee River
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:17 AM EDT     1.91 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:59 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:21 AM EDT     0.46 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:36 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 12:06 PM EDT     2.31 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:58 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 07:05 PM EDT     -0.20 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:11 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.91.91.61.310.70.50.50.91.41.92.22.32.21.91.50.90.4-0-0.2-00.411.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Miami-South Florida, FL (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Miami, FL
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.