Monday, August21, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Naples, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:01AMSunset 7:58PM Monday August 21, 2017 11:57 AM EDT (15:57 UTC) Moonrise 5:48AMMoonset 7:05PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ656 Coastal Waters From Chokoloskee To Bonita Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From East Cape Sable To Chokoloskee Fl Out 20 Nm- 1030 Am Edt Mon Aug 21 2017
Rest of today..East winds 5 to 10 knots nearshore and east 10 to 15 knots offshore. Seas less than 2 feet nearshore and 2 to 3 feet offshore. Period 3 seconds. Bay and inland waters light chop.
Tonight..East northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Period 2 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Tuesday..North northwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming west southwest. Seas less than 2 feet. Period 2 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning...then showers likely and a chance of Thunderstorms.
Tuesday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas less than 2 feet. Period 2 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A chance of Thunderstorms late in the evening. A chance of showers through the night. A slight chance of Thunderstorms after midnight.
Wednesday and Wednesday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas less than 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Thursday..South southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas less than 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Thursday night..Southwest winds around 5 knots nearshore and southwest 5 to 10 knots offshore. Seas less than 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Friday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas less than 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Destin Fl To Pascagoula Ms Out 60 Nm Including Mobile Bay- 1026 Am Cdt Mon Aug 21 2017
Synopsis..A broad surface ridge of high pressure will persist over the western atlantic and southeast states through early Wednesday leading to a predominately weak onshore flow each afternoon throughoutthe week. A weak frontal boundary is expected to stall near or just north of the coast by late Wednesday and remain nearly stationary through Friday. Better coverage of showers and Thunderstorms can be expected with this pattern later in the week. Winds and seas higher near scattered showers and Thunderstorms.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Naples, FL
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location: 26.14, -81.79     debug


Area Discussion for - Miami-South Florida, FL
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Fxus62 kmfl 211504
afdmfl
area forecast discussion
national weather service miami fl
1104 am edt Mon aug 21 2017

Update
Previous forecast is on track, and there are no surprises in the
morning sounding. Today will be on the dry side before a tropical
wave approaches tonight. Satellite imagery shows scattered cumulus
clouds spreading across most of south florida this morning
streaming from east to west. There are very few isolated showers
occurring. Can't rule out an isolated shower and maybe even a few
lightning strikes with one or two weak thunderstorms this
afternoon. However, strong storms are not expected today and
coverage of any showers will be minimal with just a 10 percent
chance of rain through the day for most of south florida.

Expect scattered clouds to continue today with generally good
weather for viewing today's eclipse. There will be plenty of clear
areas in between clouds for eclipse viewing.

Prev discussion issued 746 am edt Mon aug 21 2017
aviation...

vfr conditions will prevail today with little in the way of any
shower activity. Expect mainly east winds around 15 kts with gusts
around 20-23 kts likely during the midday and afternoon hours for
the east coast terminals of mia, fll, pbi. A tropical wave will
approach from the east tonight, so carrying vcsh for east coast
terminals after 00z. Shower activity overnight will likely be
mostly isolated. Any showers would be in the form of short
duration passing showers and would not have a significant impact
on airport operations.

Prev discussion... Issued 407 am edt Mon aug 21 2017
discussion...

today: drier air is upon us as derived tpw satellite estimates mark
out well the subsident airmass moving in from our east with pw
values only around 1.2 inches. If these values managed to make it
into the area without modifying, they would be near the lowest
values recorded for this time of year.

Rain chances will be much below normal for this time of year,
isolated at best, and a few models keep the day entirely dry. With
forecast soundings still showing a shallow capping inversion above
the moist boundary layer, this is an entirely reasonable scenario.

However it is tough to bet again at least a few showers storms along
the seabreeze in august.

The forecast for the eclipse viewing period across south florida is
for partly cloudy skies under scattered cumulus clouds. There may be
a shower storm or two later in the afternoon, with the best shot for
this over the interior and gulf coast.

Tonight and Tuesday: the next tropical wave (92l) is expected to
continue its westward march today, reaching the NW bahamas this
evening and moving across south florida on Tuesday. This wave
appears to be slower-moving, and it will begin interacting with the
trough frontal axis across the northeastern us, and likely stall
over or near south florida.

Current timing based on satellite has the plume of moisture
associated with this feature arriving this evening. Coverage of
showers and storms is expected to quickly ramp up overnight into
Tuesday, especially once the wave axis crosses the area Tuesday
morning. Numerous showers with embedded storms are expected during
the day on Tuesday. As has been highlighted the past few days, there
will be the potential for periods of heavy rain. There is potential
for much heavier local amounts than the areal averages, especially
along the east coast with coastal convergence. Wpc has already
placed much of the area under a marginal risk for excessive
rainfall for this period.

Wednesday through Saturday: deepening mid-upper level trough across
the eastern us will absorb the remnant low-level vorticity from 92l
late in the week, while a weakening front pushes into northern
florida. The south-southwesterly flow that develops across the
region as a result of these features will continue to pump tropical
moisture across the area. Several models still show the potential
for cyclogenesis over the gulf stream northeast of our region
late week as the remnants of 92l interact with the frontal
boundary. NHC continues to monitor this feature, and has a 40%
chance of development into a tropical cyclone in 5 days when it is
in our vicinity.

Regardless of whether a surface low forms or not, the combination of
a trailing shear axis and deep south southwest flow providing a
continuous moisture stream, which would argue for periods of rain
and thunderstorms (especially east coast). The threat with this
pattern also remains for heavy rain at times, with NCEP weather
prediction center is forecasting an areal average of 3 to 4+ inches
of rain over much of the region this week. This would indicate the
potential for much heavier amounts locally, driven by mesoscale
processes. This calls for careful monitoring of the flood potential
throughout the week.

Marine... Moderate to fresh east-southeast winds will continue
through around daybreak in the wake of yesterday's tropical wave.

Speeds through most of the day will be around 10-15kts, then picking
up again from the east-northeast this evening into Tuesday morning
as another tropical wave approaches. Winds become more southerly at
10-15kts late week as the western atlantic ridge axis drops further
south. Choppy seas can be expected, especially in the open waters,
with wave heights 3-4ft, occasionally 5ft in the atlantic.

Mostly dry conditions are expected today, before increasing late
tonight from east to west with another tropical wave. Coverage is
expected to remain high through the remainder of the week as we
remain in an unsettled pattern. Winds and waves will be locally
higher near any thunderstorms.

Beach forecast... Breezy onshore flow will keep a moderate risk
of rip currents at the atlantic beaches today. The risk is
expected to diminish by mid week as winds subside.

Preliminary point temps pops
West palm beach 92 81 91 79 10 50 70 50
fort lauderdale 91 81 90 79 10 50 60 50
miami 93 81 91 79 10 30 60 50
naples 96 79 92 77 10 10 60 40

Mfl watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Am... None.

Gm... None.

Update... 98 abh
discussion... 88 alm
marine... 88 alm
aviation... 98 abh
beach forecast... 88 alm


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NPSF1 - 8725110 - Naples, FL 1 mi40 min ESE 1.9 G 8.9 89°F1019.6 hPa
RKXF1 - Rookery Bay Reserve, FL 8 mi73 min ESE 6 87°F 80°F
FMRF1 - 8725520 - Fort Myers, FL 35 mi40 min ESE 5.1 G 9.9 88°F 89°F1019.5 hPa
WPLF1 - Watson Place, FL 41 mi58 min 87°F
CNBF1 - Cannon Bay, FL 44 mi58 min 86°F

Wind History for Naples, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Naples, Naples Municipal Airport, FL1 mi65 minESE 810.00 miPartly Cloudy86°F75°F70%1019.4 hPa

Wind History from APF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE11NE10E9
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1 day agoNW3NE3W5W7W8NW8NW104N4NE5SE3E3E5E5SE6E5E4CalmNE5NE4E6NE5NE10E8
2 days agoCalm4W8W9W9NW9NW9NW8N7NE9SE6CalmE5E10N3N3CalmCalmN3E5E4E55E4

Tide / Current Tables for Naples, Naples Bay, north end, Florida
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Naples
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:40 AM EDT     2.92 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:47 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 07:02 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:11 AM EDT     0.97 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 01:11 PM EDT     3.43 feet High Tide
Mon -- 02:31 PM EDT     New Moon
Mon -- 07:57 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:04 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 08:08 PM EDT     -0.12 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.42.82.92.62.21.61.211.11.52.12.73.23.43.32.92.21.40.70.1-0.100.51.3

Tide / Current Tables for Cocohatchee River, U.S. 41 bridge, Florida
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Cocohatchee River
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:04 AM EDT     1.98 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:47 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 07:02 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:55 AM EDT     0.65 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 01:34 PM EDT     2.66 feet High Tide
Mon -- 02:31 PM EDT     New Moon
Mon -- 07:57 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:04 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 08:39 PM EDT     -0.20 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.51.921.91.71.41.10.80.60.91.41.92.42.62.62.421.50.90.3-0.1-0.20.20.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Miami-South Florida, FL (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Miami, FL
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.