Monday, November12, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Highland Beach, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:23AMSunset 5:23PM Monday November 12, 2018 7:52 PM EST (00:52 UTC) Moonrise 10:44AMMoonset 9:37PM Illumination 24% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Highland Beach, FL
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location: 26.19, -77.19     debug


Area Discussion for - Miami-South Florida, FL
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Fxus62 kmfl 130003
afdmfl
area forecast discussion
national weather service miami fl
703 pm est Mon nov 12 2018

Update
Only showers observed on radar this evening remain over the
atlantic waters, with a small cell moving into south beach and
vicinity. Otherwise, benign weather conditons prevail across
soflo. A few showers are possible overnight, but most should favor
the coastal waters. Current forecast package remains on track and
no significant changes are required for this update.

Prev discussion issued 401 pm est Mon nov 12 2018
discussion...

short term (tonight-Wednesday)... A stalled, decaying frontal
boundary stretches across the region, stretching as far west as
the texas gulf coast. Model solutions show some cyclogenesis
developing in the western gulf of mexico and lifting NE during the
next couple of days. This sfc low is forcing the front to migrate
northward, with warm air advection filtering into soflo as S se
flow establishes. However, the warm air mass remains relatively
dry, and suppressing rain chances this evening.

Winds aloft will gradually veer to the SW and bring increasing
mid level moisture overnight and into Tuesday morning. Best rain
chances will continue to favor the lake okeechobee region.

Models push the aforementioned sfc low quickly out into the ne
states by Tuesday and decoupling from the frontal boundary, which
will remain lingering along the gulf coast and the florida
panhandle. Pressure gradients become a little tighter ahead of the
front, bringing modest sfc S SW winds across the peninsula. This
overall synoptic scenario will translate into slightly warmer
temperatures and increasing atmospheric instability. Thus, expect
increasing shower and thunderstorm activity, especially along sea
breeze boundaries in the afternoon. But overall chances of rain
remain in the low-end scattered. The warmer air mass in place
may help in pushing afternoon highs to near record values on
Tuesday... Possibly around 90.

For Wednesday, latest model guidance has become less aggressive
in bringing the front right across the area at that time, and are
keeping soflo under the continuing warm, S SW wind regime. This
will keep rain chances in the 30-40 percent range.

Long term (Thursday-Sunday)... Uncertainty remains in the long
range forecast as it is still not clear of exactly when and or
how far south the lingering front to the north is going to push
later in the week. Euro shows the bulk of the weather associated
with the FROPA quickly sweeping across soflo and into the keys
Thursday afternoon and evening, while gfs FROPA starts early in
the morning. Either way, both models show better agreement in
keeping the front's potential impacts as mostly rain with scattered
thunderstorms through Thursday evening.

By Friday, a much drier airmass should bring cooler air advection
from the north in the wake of the frontal passage with afternoon
highs in the mid-upper 70s by Saturday.

Marine... Se winds continue as the weak front across the region
gradually lifts north. 15-20kt winds are possible overnight,
especially in the atlantic coastal waters, along with 2-3ft seas
in the gulf and 3-5ft seas in the atlantic.

Winds veer southerly on Tuesday ahead of the next storm system
moving through the gulf, with speeds diminishing as the front
reaches into the area. Differences in the timing and placement of
the front adds considerable uncertainty to the forecast for
Wednesday onwards, however the generally trend has been for a slower
and weaker influence.

Periods of showers are expected through the remainder of the
weekend. Better rain chances, and the threat for storms will
increase with the next front by Tuesday.

Aviation...

the winds will remain easterly at 10 to 15 knots this afternoon
before decreasing to 5 to 10 knots tonight for most TAF sites,
except kapf TAF site where the direction should go more southerly
between 22z and 00z. A few showers will continue to affect the
east coast TAF sites through tonight, but the coverage will be few
and far between to mention it in the TAF sites at this time. The
ceiling and vis should also remain inVFR conditions through
tonight at all of the TAF sites.

Climate... Warm temperatures and near record highs are possible
the next two days, especially along the east coast.

Tuesday's forecast and records
forecast record year
naples 87 91 in 1948
west palm beach 88 88 in 1992
fort lauderdale 87 87 in 1992
miami 88 88 in 2015
Wednesday's forecast and records
forecast record year
naples 86 91 in 1993
west palm beach 86 87 in 1948
fort lauderdale 85 87 in 1981
miami 86 88 in 1941

Preliminary point temps pops
West palm beach 74 86 74 86 30 40 30 30
fort lauderdale 77 86 77 86 30 40 30 30
miami 75 86 74 86 30 40 30 30
naples 71 86 71 86 10 30 30 40

Mfl watches warnings advisories
Fl... High rip current risk until 7 pm est this evening for flz168-172-
173.

Am... None.

Gm... None.

Update... 17 ar


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Boca Raton, Boca Raton Airport, FL155 mi62 minVar 410.00 miFair79°F71°F79%1016.9 hPa

Wind History from BCT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE11
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Tide / Current Tables for Pelican Harbour, Abaco Island, Bahamas
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Pelican Harbour
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Mon -- 04:43 AM EST     1.07 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:24 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:43 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 11:06 AM EST     3.59 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:19 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 05:39 PM EST     1.15 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 09:36 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 11:31 PM EST     3.07 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.92.521.51.11.11.31.82.433.43.63.53.12.621.51.21.21.41.82.32.83

Tide / Current Tables for Nassau, New Providence Island, Bahamas
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Nassau
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Mon -- 04:27 AM EST     0.90 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:24 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:42 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 10:54 AM EST     3.37 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:16 PM EST     0.86 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:22 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 09:40 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 11:24 PM EST     2.82 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.72.21.71.20.90.91.21.72.32.93.23.43.22.82.21.61.10.90.91.21.72.22.62.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Miami-South Florida, FL (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Miami, FL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.