Monday, November20, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Sea Ranch Lakes, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:42AMSunset 5:30PM Monday November 20, 2017 12:17 PM EST (17:17 UTC) Moonrise 8:24AMMoonset 7:25PM Illumination 4% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ651 Coastal Waters From Deerfield Beach To Ocean Reef Fl Out 20 Nm- Waters From Deerfield Beach To Ocean Reef Fl From 20 To 60 Nm Excluding The Territorial Waters Of Bahamas- 947 Am Est Mon Nov 20 2017
.small craft advisory in effect through Tuesday morning...
Rest of today..Winds east northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas to 6 feet along the coast and 5 to 7 feet with occasional to 9 feet in the gulf stream. Period 7 seconds. Intracoastal waters choppy in exposed areas. Showers likely.
Tonight..East winds 15 to 20 knots along the coast to east 15 to 20 knots with gusts to around 30 knots in the gulf stream. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas to 6 feet along the coast and 4 to 6 feet with occasional to 8 feet in the gulf stream. Period 7 seconds. Intracoastal waters rough in exposed areas. Showers likely and a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Tuesday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas to 6 feet. Period 7 seconds. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Tuesday night..South southeast winds 5 knots becoming northwest after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas to 5 feet. Period 7 seconds. Intracoastal waters smooth. A slight chance of Thunderstorms late in the evening. A chance of showers through the night.
Wednesday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Intracoastal waters a light chop.
Wednesday night..Along the coast, east southeast winds 5 knots late in the evening becoming variable winds less than 5 knots... Then becoming southwest 5 knots in the morning. In the gulf stream, east southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south in the morning. Seas around 2 feet. Intracoastal waters a light chop. A chance of showers.
Thursday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Intracoastal waters a light chop. Showers likely and a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Thursday night..West southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas less than 2 feet. Intracoastal waters a light chop. Showers likely and a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Friday..Along the coast, west winds 5 knots becoming south around 5 knots in the afternoon. In the gulf stream, south southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Intracoastal waters a light chop. A chance of showers.
AMZ600 Synopsis For Jupiter Inlet To Ocean Reef Fl Out To 60 Nm And For East Cape Sable To Bonita Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 947 Am Est Mon Nov 20 2017
Synopsis.. Fresh northeast breezes this morning behind a cold front will veer to easterly tonight. Seas will build to around 7 feet over the gulf stream today and tonight. A moderate southeast breeze will establish Tuesday as the front retreats northward as a warm front. Showers and scattered Thunderstorms will steadily increase in coverage this afternoon through Tuesday. Winds and seas will improve late Tuesday into the weekend, but showers and scattered Thunderstorms will again be possible Thursday into Friday.
Gulf stream hazards..Northeast winds around 20 knots this morning becoming easterly tonight. Seas around 7 feet. The approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream as of nov 18, 2017 at 1200 utc... 5 nautical miles east northeast of fowey rocks. 23 nautical miles southeast of port everglades. 13 nautical miles east southeast of lake worth. 12 nautical miles east of jupiter inlet. This data courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sea Ranch Lakes, FL
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location: 26.2, -80.13     debug


Area Discussion for - Miami-South Florida, FL
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Fxus62 kmfl 201442
afdmfl
area forecast discussion
national weather service miami fl
942 am est Mon nov 20 2017

Update
A few changes with this update that include adjusting pops along
the atlantic coast to reflect new hi-res modeling this morning.

Also, the wind across the gulf are no longer forecast to be above
small craft advisory criteria, so that advisory is now cancelled.

The adjustment to pops is fairly minor, mainly just fine tuning
the pop, not really changing the locations where rain may occur.

Prev discussion issued 648 am est Mon nov 20 2017
aviation...

the wind is forecast to become NE this morning and increase to
around 15kts, with a few higher gusts. Shra is moving into the
area already this morning, so, vcsh is in TAF for the entire
period for most east coast terminals. In generalVFR conditions,
other than only brief ifr restrictions possible in and near
showers through the day.

Prev discussion... Issued 311 am est Mon nov 20 2017
discussion...

synopsis: an unsettled pattern setting up as a front stalls over
the region today and a series of disturbances moves over the
region Tuesday and again late in the week.

Near term (today-tonight): the front now moving through south
florida will stall out later today near the southern tip of the
peninsula. Showers have been forming overnight over the atlantic
waters along and behind the surface boundary, and the front will
continue to be a focus for showers today. As winds veer to more
easterly and the residual boundary begins to retreat northward,
the showers are likely to spread back over south florida from
southeast to northwest this afternoon and tonight.

Short term (Tuesday-Wednesday): as the remnant front continues
moving northward Tuesday, the greatest concentration of showers
will also shift northward into the lake okeechobee palm beach
region and up into central florida. However, with a relatively
moist air mass in place and a shortwave trough approaching from
the gulf, scattered showers will be possible at times farther
south Tuesday. The strengthening wind fields aloft and focused
upward motion ahead of the shortwave trough should be sufficient
for a few scattered thunderstorms Tuesday, particularly northern
sections closer to the front. Wednesday now appears to be a
relatively dry day with the remnant surface boundary north of the
area and lower tropospheric subsidence in the wake of the
departing shortwave trough.

Medium range (Thursday-Friday night): medium range models are
still having some difficulty with a complex mid troposphere
evolution expected. What they agree on is some vorticity dropping
into the gulf Thursday, prompting cyclogenesis by Thursday morning
along the low level shear axis (remnant front). The timing of the
main shortwave trough turning the corner and lifting out is still
tricky, with the GFS now a bit faster than the ecmwf. So the
period from Thursday afternoon through early Friday will have the
highest chance for showers and scattered thunderstorms, but some
rain risk may stretch into late Friday if the slower ecmwf
solution is correct.

Weekend: although there air mass behind the late week storm
system is not particularly cold, steadily drier air should invade
the region, bringing clearing skies Saturday and allowing low
temperatures to fall into the lower 50s northwest to lower 60s
southeast beaches Sunday morning.

Marine...

northerly wind surge behind the front is bringing 20-25 knot winds
to the atlantic and gulf waters early this morning. Winds on the
gulf side will diminish this afternoon as the front washes out,
but the pressure gradient will remain tight over the atlantic
waters through tonight as wind veer around to easterly, so
hazardous boating conditions will continue. The fresh breeze will
be accompanied by significant wave heights of 7 feet or so in the
gulf stream. Conditions improve Tuesday on through the rest of
the week, though scattered thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday
and again on Thursday into Friday.

Beach forecast...

there will be a moderate risk of rip currents at the atlantic
beaches today as onshore winds increase. If winds come around to
easterly and increase faster than currently forecast, a later
upgrade to high risk may become necessary. Regardless, beachgoers
should be aware of the risk of rip currents today.

Preliminary point temps pops
West palm beach 79 72 81 67 10 60 50 20
fort lauderdale 79 73 83 69 40 70 40 20
miami 80 72 84 69 50 60 40 20
naples 83 67 83 66 10 20 60 20

Mfl watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Am... Small craft advisory until 7 am est Tuesday for amz650-651-670-
671.

Gm... None.

Update... 13
discussion... 22 ks
marine... 22 ks
aviation... 13
beach forecast... 22 ks


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PVGF1 - Port Everglades Channel, FL 8 mi35 min ENE 18 G 22 76°F 1017.8 hPa66°F
LKWF1 - 8722670 - Lake Worth, FL 29 mi47 min NE 17 G 19 75°F 79°F1019.4 hPa62°F
VAKF1 - 8723214 - Virginia Key, FL 32 mi47 min NE 15 G 20 76°F 78°F1017.2 hPa
FWYF1 - Fowey Rocks, FL 42 mi77 min NE 25 G 28 75°F 78°F1018.2 hPa (+0.9)

Wind History for Lake Worth Pier, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Fort Lauderdale, Fort Lauderdale Executive Airport, FL2 mi24 minENE 1210.00 miMostly Cloudy77°F66°F71%1018.1 hPa
Pompano Beach, Pompano Beach Airpark, FL3 mi24 minENE 1610.00 miPartly Cloudy79°F64°F62%1018 hPa
Fort Lauderdale/Hollywood International Airport, FL9 mi24 minENE 13 G 2210.00 miMostly Cloudy76°F66°F72%1017.4 hPa
Boca Raton, Boca Raton Airport, FL13 mi90 minENE 17 G 2210.00 miPartly Cloudy79°F62°F58%1018.6 hPa
Hollywood, North Perry Airport, FL15 mi24 minENE 1510.00 miOvercast78°F64°F62%1018.3 hPa
Miami, Opa Locka Airport, FL22 mi24 minE 15 G 2110.00 miOvercast79°F69°F72%1017.9 hPa

Wind History from FXE (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW8W7W6SW7W7W4SW4CalmCalmW5NW4NW3NW4NW5N6N6N6N8N5N5NE9
G14
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1 day agoE9E8E9E8E6NE3N3N3NW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3W3CalmCalmW36W10W8
2 days agoNE9NE13
G18
NE10NE11NE10NE7NE7NE6CalmCalmN3NW5NW5N3E3CalmCalmCalmNW3NW3N35E8
G15
NE9

Tide / Current Tables for Lauderdale-by-the-Sea, Anglin Fishing Pier, Florida
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Lauderdale-by-the-Sea
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:39 AM EST     0.27 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:42 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:23 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 09:00 AM EST     3.24 feet High Tide
Mon -- 03:06 PM EST     0.72 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:29 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 07:24 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 09:05 PM EST     2.97 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.30.70.30.30.61.21.92.533.23.12.621.30.90.70.91.31.82.42.832.82.4

Tide / Current Tables for Bahía Mar Yacht Club, Fort Lauderdale, Florida
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Bahia Mar Yacht Club
Click for Map
Mon -- 03:25 AM EST     0.25 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:42 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:23 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 09:29 AM EST     2.98 feet High Tide
Mon -- 03:52 PM EST     0.68 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:29 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 07:25 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 09:34 PM EST     2.74 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.610.50.30.30.71.422.62.92.92.72.21.61.10.80.70.91.41.92.42.72.72.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Miami-South Florida, FL (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Miami, FL
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.