Monday, May21, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Pelican Bay, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 6:36AMSunset 8:11PM Monday May 21, 2018 11:13 AM EDT (15:13 UTC) Moonrise 11:51AMMoonset 12:27AM Illumination 42% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
GMZ656 Coastal Waters From Chokoloskee To Bonita Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From East Cape Sable To Chokoloskee Fl Out 20 Nm- 433 Am Edt Mon May 21 2018
Today..East southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Period 3 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Numerous showers and a chance of Thunderstorms.
Tonight..East southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Period 4 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Scattered showers with isolated Thunderstorms.
Tuesday..East southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Period 4 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Scattered showers in the morning. Isolated Thunderstorms through the day. Numerous showers in the afternoon.
Tuesday night..East southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Period 4 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Scattered showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Wednesday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Scattered showers with isolated Thunderstorms.
Wednesday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A chance of showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Thursday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Showers likely and a chance of Thunderstorms.
Thursday night..East southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A chance of showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Friday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Showers likely and a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Pascagoula Ms To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 60 Nm Including Major Area Bays And Sounds- 555 Am Cdt Mon May 21 2018
Synopsis..A weak upper low centered over the florida panhandle waters this morning will shift west and north through midweek followed by a deeper area of low pressure developing over the south central gulf tracking northward towards the lower mississippi river valley late in the week and over the weekend. This pattern will continue to lead to scattered to numerous Thunderstorms developing over the marine area both day and night through midweek followed by better coverage late in the week and over the weekend. A light to moderate easterly flow this morning will shift mostly south by late afternoon then remain southeast and south through midweek. Easterly winds and seas will build later in the week and over weekend as the next system moves northward over the central gulf.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Pelican Bay, FL
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 26.21, -81.87     debug


Area Discussion for - Miami-South Florida, FL
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus62 kmfl 211156
afdmfl
area forecast discussion
national weather service miami fl
756 am edt Mon may 21 2018

Aviation
Latest radar imagery shows most of the shra activity concentrated
over the interior moving nw. A few shra will be possible near the
east coast terminals before they gradually progress west away from
most of the terminals after 15z. The only exception will be pbi,
where more shra will be expected near the area a little longer.

For the west coast, the chances of rain increase into the afternoon.

Vfr prevail through much of the period with the exception of a few
MVFR CIGS due to any thunderstorm near the area with gusty winds.

Prev discussion issued 403 am edt Mon may 21 2018
discussion...

short term (today through Wednesday night)
a few changes are in store for south florida in spite of this
relatively stagnant wet pattern of the past week, but Monday will
still be a wet day across the region. Overnight, several waves of
showers, some with very heavy downpours, have moved inland into
the miami-fort lauderdale-west palm beach metropolitan area,
dropped over an inch of rain in some locations and prompting
another broward county flood advisory. That advisory has expired
but the flood watch will remain in effect until noon for metro
fort lauderdale, as any additional rainfall will likely lead to
quick ponding and at least some flooding. Mesoscale convective
models are not overly enthused about today's heavy rain chances,
and wpc has lowered rainfall amount forecasts through the next
several days. Still, expect numerous showers, some with locally
heavy rainfall, as well as isolated thunderstorms. Despite a
continued plume of deep tropical moisture from the caribbean
overhead, the influence of the subtropical ridge to the east is
nosing its way toward the east coast of florida. This should at
least focus the precipitation more toward the gulf coast, though
scattered activity will likely prevail areawide through midweek.

Abundant cloud-cover will continue to curb diurnal warming, but
maxima should be able to creep closer to normal by mid-week. See
hydrology section below for details on the week's heavy rain flood
potential.

Long term (Thursday through Sunday)
the mid upper level trough over the central and eastern gulf of
mexico will re-establish itself as the atlantic high pressure
weakens for late in the week. The forecast for this period holds
quite a bit of uncertainty as 1) ECMWF and GFS continue to offer
contrasting solutions (ecmwf has stronger and longer lasting
ridging, holding off significant moisture return until closer to
the weekend, GFS brings major moisture back in by Thursday) and 2)
both models suggest the re-strengthened trough in the gulf may
pull a sort of disturbance from the caribbean sea into the gulf
by the end of the week, but the timing, location, and strength of
the disturbance holds little model agreement at this time.

Regardless of which model is right, it appears rain chances will
be on the increase again by Friday at the latest, and unless a
fast, northeastward moving disturbance can clear the area and
bring drier air in behind in by the middle of the holiday weekend,
it appears showers will remain likely throughout, with a potential
for renewed heavy rainfall.

Marine...

southeast wind of 15 to 20 knots will continue perhaps as last as
Tuesday, nearing 20 knots sustained at times over atlantic waters.

At this time, no advisory will be issued, but conditions will be
closely monitored over the next 36 hours or so. Thereafter, wind
should remain southeast but diminish to 10 to 15 knots through
late week. Seas will build to around 5 feet in atlantic waters
today and Tuesday, before returning to levels similar to gulf
waters, 2 to 4 feet.

Aviation...

showers with MVFR and brief ifr conditions wind gusts 25 knots
concentrating primarily pbi fll area through 08z-10z, then
becoming more scattered in coverage from 12z onward along the east
coast pbi-mia. By 17z, most of the precipitation will likely be
over the interior and gulf coast. At kapf, sct to perhaps bkn
below 1,000 ft before 14z, then prob30 for tsra after 18z. Wind
120-130 degrees 8-12 knots, increasing to 15g22 knots after about
15z.

Beach forecast...

persistent southeast winds of 15 to 20 mph will lead to a high
risk of rip currents on atlantic waters through Tuesday. This
could continue into Wednesday, with as least some enhanced risk of
rip currents likely continuing through the week.

Hydrology...

rainfall amounts averaging 4 to 7 inches across the east coast
metropolitan areas Saturday has erased any remaining rainfall
deficits. The good news regarding flooding in the next few days,
is that after this morning, additional rainfall amounts through
Wednesday are likely to average 1 to 2 inches, and be focused more
on the relatively drier grounds of southwest florida. Still,
locally higher amounts are possible, particularly today, and with
grounds saturated, especially in broward county, additional
flooding cant be ruled out.

Guidance continues to suggest a relatively lull (or more of a
return to normal rainy season) Tuesday and Wednesday (possibly
continuing into Thursday) before deep tropical moisture and the
threat for heavy rain returns ahead of the start to the holiday
weekend.

Preliminary point temps pops
West palm beach 80 74 81 73 60 60 50 30
fort lauderdale 81 74 82 74 50 40 30 30
miami 82 73 83 74 40 30 30 30
naples 85 71 85 72 60 50 50 30

Mfl watches warnings advisories
Fl... High rip current risk through Tuesday evening for flz168-172-173.

Flood watch until noon edt today for flz071-072-172.

Am... None.

Gm... None.

Aviation... 67 mt


Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NPSF1 - 8725110 - Naples, FL 6 mi43 min 79°F 79°F1017.5 hPa
RKXF1 - Rookery Bay Reserve, FL 14 mi88 min 79°F 75°F
FMRF1 - 8725520 - Fort Myers, FL 30 mi43 min SE 7 G 14 80°F 82°F1017.5 hPa
WPLF1 - Watson Place, FL 48 mi73 min 79°F

Wind History for Naples, FL
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
Last
24hr
1 day
ago
2 days
ago

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Naples, Naples Municipal Airport, FL7 mi20 minESE 1110.00 miMostly Cloudy81°F75°F82%1017.5 hPa
Fort Myers, Southwest Florida International Airport, FL24 mi20 minESE 11 G 1510.00 miPartly Cloudy80°F73°F79%1017.8 hPa

Wind History from APF (wind in knots)
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
Last 24hrSE12
G16
SE8E10E6E6E6E10E6E6E5E9E6E7E5E6E6E5E5E7E5E6E11E11
G17
SE11
1 day agoSE10S10S11S13
G22
SE63SE8SE9CalmNE6E6E6E9E9E9E9E6E7E7E4E6E5SE9SE6
2 days agoS7SW6SW9SW12SW8SW7SW8S8W3W3NW4CalmE4NE5SE6E3CalmE4NE4NE6E5E6SE7E8

Tide / Current Tables for Wiggins Pass, Cocohatchee River, Florida
   EDIT   RT Ports Option   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help   One Week of Data
Wiggins Pass
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:56 AM EDT     -0.20 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 01:27 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 06:37 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:49 AM EDT     1.81 feet High Tide
Mon -- 12:50 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 01:16 PM EDT     1.13 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:39 PM EDT     2.01 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:10 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 11:50 PM EDT     First Quarter
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.1-0.2-00.40.91.21.51.81.81.71.61.41.21.11.21.41.71.9221.91.61.30.9

Tide / Current Tables for Point Ybel (0.4 Mi. NW of), Florida Current
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help   One Week of Data
Point Ybel (0.4 Mi. NW of)
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:28 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 02:15 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 05:19 AM EDT     1.03 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 06:38 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 11:29 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 12:24 PM EDT     -0.10 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 12:51 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 01:20 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 04:05 PM EDT     0.61 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 06:33 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 08:11 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 11:50 PM EDT     First Quarter
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-1.2-0.8-0.20.40.9110.90.80.60.40.1-0.1-0.10.20.50.60.50.2-0.2-0.4-0.6-0.8-1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   HelpWeather Map
wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Miami-South Florida, FL (11,2,3,4)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Miami, FL
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.