Saturday, July22, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Rio Hondo, TX

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:50AMSunset 8:23PM Saturday July 22, 2017 9:49 PM CDT (02:49 UTC) Moonrise 5:00AMMoonset 6:51PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ130 Laguna Madre From The Port Of Brownsville To The Arroyo Colorado- Laguna Madre From The Arroyo Colorado To 5 Nm North Of Port Mansfield Tx- Laguna Madre From 5 Nm North Of Port Mansfield To Baffin Bay Tx- 409 Pm Cdt Sat Jul 22 2017
.small craft should exercise caution this evening...
Tonight..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots becoming south 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Choppy on the bay becoming a moderate chop after midnight.
Sunday..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Choppy on the bay.
Sunday night..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots becoming south 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Choppy on the bay subsiding to a moderate chop after midnight.
Monday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. A moderate chop on the bay increasing to choppy in the afternoon.
Monday night..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Choppy on the bay subsiding to a moderate chop after midnight. Isolated showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
Tuesday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. A moderate chop on the bay. Isolated showers in the morning. Isolated Thunderstorms through the day. Scattered showers in the afternoon.
Tuesday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. A moderate chop on the bay. Isolated showers and Thunderstorms.
Wednesday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. A moderate chop on the bay. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms.
Wednesday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. A moderate chop on the bay. Isolated showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. A light chop on the bay increasing to a moderate chop in the afternoon. Isolated showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. A moderate chop on the bay. Isolated showers and Thunderstorms.
GMZ100 Synopsis For Baffin Bay To Rio Grande Out 60 Nm- 409 Pm Cdt Sat Jul 22 2017
Synopsis..Moderate to occasional stronger winds and a choppy wind wave to persist into Monday as a high pressure ridge across eastern and central gulf of mexico interacts with a surface low pressure trough expanding across the southern plains and west texas. Small craft advisories may be needed across the laguna madre Sunday afternoon where winds are expected to be stronger. The ridge will edge into the central and western gulf Tuesday and Wednesday allowing winds and seas to relax a little. Slightly higher moisture levels may bring isolated showers or a Thunderstorm Tuesday and Wednesday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Rio Hondo, TX
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location: 26.26, -97.53     debug

Area Discussion for - Brownsville, TX
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Fxus64 kbro 222338 aaa
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service brownsville tx
638 pm cdt Sat jul 22 2017

Discussion Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

Aviation Vfr conditions to prevail across the rgv and all of
deep south texas. Surface high pressure over the gulf of mexico
will continue to interact with lower pressure over west texas
maintain and strong pressure gradient this evening into Sunday.

Gusty conditions persist through the evening then become less
frequent overnight before redeveloping Sunday afternoon. Gusts
between 20-30 knots are expected.

Prev discussion issued 310 pm cdt Sat jul 22 2017
short term (now through Sunday night): mid summer heat combined
with the valley wind machine will be the dominant story again
Sunday afternoon, with enough overnight winds tonight especially
to keep minimum temperature up a hair... Similar to this
morning... On Sunday with perhaps a very slight decrease by Monday

The features remain the same as previously discussed; weak upper low
centered near southern louisiana (but underneath the sprawling 500
mb ridge across the entire southern third of the us) will
continue to fill while nudging into southeast texas Sunday and
Sunday night. Deepest precipitation-producing moisture will remain
well north of the valley, mainly from southeast texas through
louisiana mississippi alabama, but similar to today some re-firing
convection may allow some cirrus to spill southwest in 200-400 mb
northerly flow to reach the valley.

If some of the cirrus can, it could knock a smidge off the afternoon
temperatures on Sunday. GFS shows some thickness of the cirrus
overnight and Sunday, so owing to perhaps a period or two of dimmed
sunshine, lowered MAX temperatures a degree from this afternoon -
but nothing that will really be notable. The overall sense of the
sky will be mostly sunny with a few cumulus and the scattered cirrus
above, and mainly clear at night. As for the nighttime sky, may see
some more patches of fragmented cumulus on the stronger low level
jet which is typical in such a pattern... But other than a few areas
that could go broken across the ranchlands not expecting any impact.

Otherwise, expect gusty winds to crank a little quicker Sunday
morning, with frequent gusts to or over 30 mph from noon through 6
pm (later farther west) but falling shy of wind advisory levels.

Winds on Sunday night, just like this evening, will still be fresh
through midnight but could dip a bit lower by Monday morning.

Long term (Monday through Saturday): the weekend weather will
continue into the new work week as hot temperatures, dry weather,
and breezy conditions lingering on. The cause of this is the
persistent ridging across the desert southwest with continued
subsidence suppressing any rainfall chances. Temperatures Monday
will once again top out from the lower to 90s to around 100f for
the coastal counties, with reading from 101 to 106 for other
locations in the rgv and ranchlands. Heat index values will still
be in the 105 to 110f range.

Models continue to hint at a brief mid level pattern change
Tuesday through Thursday as a weak h5 low open wave meanders
along the texas gulf coast early in the period before it moves
west over the region around the periphery of the high pressure
ridge. This subtle push back against the ridge should allow a
small surge of tropical moisture to drift into the deep south
texas and the rgv. However, the best moisture levels look to
remain across northern mexico, staying south of us. Furthermore,
long term models have flipped on pops with the GFS trending drier
compared to the now wetter ecmwf. With this continued uncertainty,
have generally kept the on-going 20 to 30 pops. Meanwhile, the
small uptick in moisture should help drop temps a couple of
degrees, however, readings will still be mostly in the 90s to
around 103. Heat index values will have to be monitored closely as
the hot temps, combined with more moist air, could allow for
indices near or over 111 degrees, which would put us near heat
advisory levels.

By the end of the period, the aforementioned ridge will shift
south and east in response to the tropical system in the eastern
pacific. This will allow the ridge in amplify over texas and
effectively shut out any tropical moisture. Temperatures will
also quickly become hot once again, with readings possibly even a
degree or two higher than what is occurring currently.

now through Sunday night: caution conditions near 20 knots with a
few gusts solid on laguna madre and are close to advisory but
just shy in the bay with a tad higher at the land cut (king ranch)
area which is pretty common in this pattern. Despite warm gulf
waters (mid 80s) marine layer is holding enough to keep winds
fresh but not too high, near 15 knots. Gulf seas have held at 3
feet today, nearly all due to wind waves, some "very steep" which
is a bear for offshore fishers.

The news remains bleak for fishers in the gulf for the next 48 hours
with wind and seas continuing to be a nuisance. Persistence of
south southeast flow and the low level jet tonight will bring gulf
winds solidly into caution (15 to 20 knots and gusty) range and
perhaps close to advisory levels, with seas building to 4 feet.

Laguna winds will stay up this evening before settling back, then
the higher winds will flip to the laguna Sunday afternoon with
caution level for sure and advisory (wind) a pretty good bet for
afternoon. A similar setup Sunday night, with seas possibly reaching
5 feet - but much of the seas due to wind waves (at least 4 feet)
with steep to very steep values in the open waters.

Best fishing will be on laguna madre during the wee hours (pre-dawn)
both Sunday and Monday.

Monday through Wednesday: high pressure over the northeastern
gulf will continue to interact with a surface low pressure system
over the plains through early Tuesday. As such the surface
pressure gradient will remain tight. Southerly winds will
continue to range near 15 to 20 kts with seas from 4 to 6 feet.

With small craft exercise caution conditions continuing. The
surface high will become more centered over the gulf by mid week,
decreasing the pressure gradient and allowing seas and winds to

Preliminary point temps pops
Bayview port isabel 80 96 80 96 10 10 0 10
brownsville 79 94 79 94 10 10 0 10
harlingen 78 101 78 100 10 10 0 10
mcallen 80 103 80 103 10 10 0 10
rio grande city 79 103 79 104 10 0 0 10
south padre island 82 91 82 90 10 10 0 10

Bro watches warnings advisories
Tx... None.

Gm... None.

This product is also available on the web at:
http: weather.Gov rgv
59 99

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
RLIT2 13 mi50 min SSE 17 G 21 85°F 87°F1012.5 hPa (+0.8)
PMNT2 21 mi50 min 84°F 88°F1012 hPa (+0.5)
PTIT2 - 8779770 - Port Isabel, TX 22 mi50 min 84°F 86°F1012.6 hPa (+0.6)
PCGT2 - 8779748 - South Padre Island CGS, TX 23 mi50 min S 13 G 16 83°F 1013.1 hPa (+0.6)
BZST2 24 mi50 min SSE 13 G 15 83°F 85°F1011.8 hPa (+0.5)
RSJT2 - 8777812 - Rincon del San Jose; Potrero Lopeno SW, TX 38 mi50 min SE 21 G 24 85°F 88°F1011.8 hPa (+0.9)

Wind History for Port Isabel, TX
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1 day
2 days

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Harlingen, Rio Grande Valley International Airport, TX8 mi58 minSSE 1410.00 miFair86°F72°F63%1011.6 hPa
Port Isabel, Port Isabel-Cameron County Airport, TX12 mi57 minSSE 1410.00 miFair85°F75°F72%1012.1 hPa
Weslaco, Mid Valley Airport, TX24 mi55 minSSE 15 G 2010.00 miFair85°F72°F64%1011.2 hPa

Wind History from HRL (wind in knots)
Last 24hrSE11SE10SE9S6S10S9S6SE7SE7SE7SE6S17S18S15S15
1 day agoSE13SE10SE9SE8S6S8S8S9S7S5CalmS10S13SE12
2 days agoSE12SE9SE8S7S6S9S8S9S5S4CalmS8S10S11S8SE13

Tide / Current Tables for Port Isabel, Texas
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Port Isabel
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Sat -- 05:59 AM CDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:44 AM CDT     1.45 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:49 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:48 PM CDT     Moonset
Sat -- 08:20 PM CDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:43 PM CDT     -0.70 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Queen Isabella Causeway (west end), Texas
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Queen Isabella Causeway (west end)
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Sat -- 05:59 AM CDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:27 AM CDT     1.20 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:49 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:48 PM CDT     Moonset
Sat -- 08:20 PM CDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:28 PM CDT     -0.64 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of SouthCentralPlains    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Brownsville, TX (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Brownsville, TX
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current

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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.