Friday, March24, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Manalapan, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 7:11AMSunset 7:29PM Friday March 24, 2017 2:07 AM EDT (06:07 UTC) Moonrise 3:44AMMoonset 3:09PM Illumination 12% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 26 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Manalapan, FL
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location: 26.3, -77.3     debug


Area Discussion for - Miami-South Florida, FL
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Fxus62 kmfl 240556
afdmfl
area forecast discussion
national weather service miami fl
156 am edt Fri mar 24 2017

Aviation
For the atlantic coast terminals, east winds in the 15 to near 20
knot range with gusts to near 28 knots possible expected to
continue through the early morning hours and likely through 14z
Friday, with current guidance indicating it could continue
through at least 18z Friday. While shower activity across the
atlantic waters has subsided, low level stratocumulus with
embeddedlight to moderate showers will impact the terminals
occasionally early this morning with brief MVFR conditions
possible with the heavier passing showers. For terminal kapf,
easterly winds around 10 knots expected to continue early this
morning with stratocumulus ceilings around 3500 ft possible.

60/bd

Prev discussion /issued 902 pm edt Thu mar 23 2017/
aviation...

tempos for tsra remain in most of the atlantic terminals through
03z tonight as thunderstorms associated with the passage of a
cold front boundary. MVFR CIGS will also accompany the
heaviest showers, along with possible reduced vis. Vcsh
continues through the overnight hours, but mainlyVFR should
prevail once the active convection moves south of the area.

It will remain breezy tonight, then easterly winds in the 15 to
20 knots range with higher gusts are expected on Friday behind the
front.

Prev discussion... /issued 742 pm edt Thu mar 23 2017/
update...

as of 740 pm edt... Scattered shower and thunderstorm activity
continues to gradually wane across the region early this evening
with the loss of daytime heating. Earlier this afternoon and
evening, it was quite active for late march, with scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms producing locally strong to
borderline severe weather that primarily included small hail and
frequent lightning.

Over the next few hours, additional scattered showers and a few
storms will be possible, mainly across eastern areas as the
frontal boundary continues to push south across far southern
florida. The threat for strong storms will be very minimal with
the loss of daytime heating and additional storms moving over
already worked over areas. After late this evening, there will
continue to be the potential for scattered showers streaming into
eastern areas off the atlantic. The flow will become breezy at
times through the night, with northeast/east winds occasionally
gusting 15-25 mph at times especially over eastern areas. Skies
will remain mostly cloudy for most, although there will be some
gradual clearing along the gulf coast late. Low temperatures will
generally be in the 60s.

Prev discussion... /issued 325 pm edt Thu mar 23 2017/
discussion...

near term /through 6 am Friday morning/...

as of 325 pm edt... Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue
across south florida this afternoon, especially across portions of
the interior and lake region as a weakening frontal boundary
moves south across the region. The convective activity has also
been supported by a piece of shortwave energy rotating through the
flow across central florida, evident in the water vapor satellite
imagery. The storm prediction center continues to highlight all
of south florida in a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms,
mainly for isolated hail and damaging winds.

A special 18z upper air release performed at kmfl supports the
ongoing strong/severe thunderstorm risk, which looks to continue
into the early evening hours. Remnants of an EML continue to yield
rather impressive mid-level lapse rates between 7-8 c/km and near
record cold 500 hpa temp around -14.5 c for this time of year.

With plenty of surface heating through the morning and early
afternoon hours, high temperatures topping out well into the 80s
for most areas, coupled with low-level moisture pooling ahead of
the boundary, CAPE values of 1500-2000 j/kg have been observed
across the region, supporting occasional strong to borderline
severe storms.

Remnant convergence along the dissipating front, coupled with the
dynamics associated with the shortwave energy moving through
central florida will continue to support a rather active remainder
of the afternoon and early evening across much of the region.

While a severe thunderstorm with large hail and gusty winds cannot
be ruled out, much of the activity should remain sub-severe, but
still have the potential to produce small hail, brief gusty winds
45-55 mph, frequent lightning, and locally heavy rainfall that may
lead to some poor drainage flooding issues in urbanized and low-
lying areas.

For tonight, any lingering thunderstorm activity should rapidly
wane through the evening hours with the loss of daytime heating,
and as the aforementioned shortwave energy exits east. Still,
some scattered showers will linger overnight especially across
eastern areas as gusty east/northeasterly flow rapidly moves into
the region in the wake of the frontal boundary. Wind gusts
overnight may occasionally be 15-25 mph at times, especially for
eastern areas. Low temperatures will generally be in the 60s.

Short term /6 am Friday morning through Saturday night/...

in the wake of the frontal boundary, which looks to eventually wash
out south of the region, strong high pressure will build to the
north, keeping a tight pressure gradient across the region between
the southern edge of the high and the exiting front. Brisk
east/northeast winds, especially along the east coast, will
continue through the day Friday along with lingering isolated to
widely scattered showers. Slightly drier air will work into the
region beginning Saturday, lowering the threat for rain although
an brief shower can still not be ruled out.

High temperatures will range from the upper 70s to near 80 along
the east coast, to lower and even some mid 80s in the interior and
gulf coast. Low temperatures will range from the upper 50s to
upper 60s.

Long term /Sunday through Wednesday/...

the long term period will be characterized by an easterly flow
regime, with weak upper-level ridging aloft. An upper-level trough
digging through the lower great lakes early next week will help to
break down the upper-level ridging further, allowing the flow to
become more southerly. Generally fair weather can be expected
through the period, although a few showers streaming in off the
atlantic will be possible from time to time mainly across eastern
areas.

With the easterly flow in place, temperatures will be above normal
for the long term period. Humidity, although not oppressive, will be
higher as well compared to recent days.

Marine...

small craft advisory conditions for much of the local waters
through tonight...

a frontal boundary, gradually weakening with time, will continue to
move south across the region through the rest of today, with marine
conditions rapidly deteriorating in its wake. This front will bring
scattered showers and thunderstorms to the local waters, especially
over the atlantic and lake okeechobee. With the strongest storms,
locally erratic winds and small hail will be possible, with a low
chance of waterspouts as well.

Behind the frontal passage, expect east-northeast winds 20-25kts
over much of the local waters, including biscayne bay, through the
overnight hours with seas in excess of 7 feet over the offshore
atlantic waters, highest in the gulf stream. Winds will also be
around 20 knots in the offshore gulf waters, with seas 4-6 feet.

Winds and seas will begin to slowly diminish during the day Friday,
especially over the gulf waters, but small craft advisory conditions
are likely to continue for the atlantic waters including biscayne
bay into Saturday morning. Hazardous marine conditions may linger
for the atlantic waters into early Sunday as well, before better
boating conditions return for the second half of the weekend.

A small craft advisory is in effect for the local atlantic waters
including biscayne bay through Saturday morning, and the local gulf
waters this evening through mid-Friday morning. Small craft should
exercise caution tonight in the lake okeechobee waters.

For more details on the marine forecast, see the coastal waters
forecast.

Beach forecast...

a high risk of rip currents will continue for the atlantic beaches
through at least Saturday morning with strong onshore flow. The
rip current risk for the atlantic beaches will likely remain
elevated well into next week as well with continued onshore flow.

Fire weather...

scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening
should help mitigate fire weather concerns in the short term, with
many areas seeing a light to soaking rain as a frontal boundary
moves across the region. In the wake of the frontal boundary,
drier air will filter into the region by the end of the weekend
and into early next week, with relative humidity levels
potentially reaching critical values across portions of the
interior and gulf coast.

Aviation...

a cold front dropping southward across the region will continue to
generate unsettled weather over south florida. Through 23/2200z,
vcts conds will affect mainly portions of the east coast TAF sites
and adjacent waters. Expect sct/bkn025 and bkn050, then
decreasing cloud cover and convective activity by late evening
into overnight. Small hail and gusty/erratic winds will be
possible the storms as they move southward along the peninsula.

Behind the front, east northeast winds will increase to around
15-17 kt with occasional higher gusts. However, at kapf, ene
winds will be weaker, only around 12 kt. Breezy conditions should
continue through the night along the east coast TAF sites with
vcsh.

Preliminary point temps/pops
West palm beach 78 68 80 69 / 20 20 10 10
fort lauderdale 78 70 80 69 / 20 20 10 10
miami 79 69 81 69 / 20 20 10 10
naples 83 62 81 62 / 10 0 10 10

Mfl watches/warnings/advisories
Fl... High rip current risk through this evening for flz168-172-173.

Am... Small craft advisory until 8 am edt Saturday for amz630-650-651-
670-671.

Gm... Small craft advisory until 11 am edt this morning for gmz656-657-
676.

Aviation... 60/bd


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SPGF1 - Settlement Point, GBI 94 mi68 min ENE 26 G 29 69°F 1025.8 hPa (+0.4)62°F

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Boca Raton, Boca Raton Airport, FL149 mi3.3 hrsENE 22 G 2910.00 miOvercast and Breezy72°F64°F78%1024.7 hPa

Wind History from BCT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr--------------CalmCalmNE5NE5NE12E11E5E12E12
G20
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G24
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1 day ago--------------434666SW10NW6N6
G16
NW10--NW9N6SE5555
2 days ago--------------NW3NW3NW3N3E6E6
G11
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G13
SE10SE10--SE8--SE6SE6SE6SE6

Tide / Current Tables for Pelican Harbour, Abaco Island, Bahamas
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Pelican Harbour
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Fri -- 04:42 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:59 AM EDT     3.37 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:07 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 12:22 PM EDT     1.00 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:07 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 06:23 PM EDT     3.25 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:21 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
11.21.72.32.83.23.43.22.92.31.71.311.11.41.92.533.23.22.92.41.71.2

Tide / Current Tables for Nassau, New Providence Island, Bahamas
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Nassau
Click for Map
Fri -- 04:42 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:46 AM EDT     2.94 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:08 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 12:00 PM EDT     0.45 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:11 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 06:11 PM EDT     2.77 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:22 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.60.91.422.52.92.92.72.21.610.60.50.611.52.12.62.82.72.31.71.10.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Miami-South Florida, FL (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Miami, FL
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.