Wednesday, January23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Manalapan, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:01AMSunset 5:51PM Wednesday January 23, 2019 6:15 AM EST (11:15 UTC) Moonrise 8:44PMMoonset 9:01AM Illumination 93% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Manalapan, FL
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location: 26.3, -77.3     debug


Area Discussion for - Miami-South Florida, FL
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Fxus62 kmfl 230906
afdmfl
area forecast discussion
national weather service miami fl
406 am est Wed jan 23 2019

Cold front could bring strong storms on Thursday...

Discussion
Today is likely the final day of relatively quiet weather before
a more unsettled pattern begins over most of south florida. A
persistent southeasterly flow will combine with atlantic moisture
to produce some chances for light rain showers over the atlantic
waters and along the east coast today. Rain chances are expected
to increase as the front moves closer to the region tonight. The
parent surface low will be centered north of the great lakes in
canada with a mid-level trough extending south, along with the
surface front, into the gulf of mexico.

Not only are showers expected with this front, so are
thunderstorms. There is a possibility that the atmospheric
environment could support some stronger storms. The main storm
modes would be discrete cells well ahead of the front and a
quasi-linear convective system or squall line closer to the
frontal boundary. One factor raising some concern for stronger
storms are 0-1 km helicity values well in excess of 150 m2 s2.

The focus of the wind shear is highest over northern portions of
the forecast area around lake okeechobee. This will have to be
monitored as a strong to severe storm threat could emerge for late
tonight into Thursday with this system. The primary concerns would
be with strong to damaging winds and the potential for tornadic
activity.

As we enter Friday, the front will stall south and east of the
forecast area. This will allow some drier, cooler air to settle
over the region for a brief period of time. Unsettled weather
returns for Sunday as some surface tropical moisture from the
gulf of mexico and caribbean combines with a mid-level shortwave
trough to allow showers and thunderstorms to return to the
forecast Sunday into Monday. There is some divergence between
guidance on possible solutions in this time period. All seem to
have focused on a more southerly track over south florida and the
florida straits for the moisture. Some solutions are also
resolving a surface low developing (or an elongated trough) which
could raise thunderstorm chances for Monday. Once again, the
progress of this portion of the forecast will also have to be
monitored for strong storm potential in case the surface low were
to develop more vigorously than currently forecast.

As this disturbance moves out Tuesday, a reinforcing cold front
will make its way through the region. It could be a drier frontal
passage compared to the one earlier in the forecast though
additional moisture could be knocking on the door from the gulf
if the front stalls north of the region. Uncertainty this far out
in the forecast period is still high as minor changes to the
synoptic pattern could mean the difference between dry, cold air
over the region or warm, moist air. The potential for some very
cold air invading part of the state does exist in this portion of
the extended, but it is way too early to discern just how
impactful any cold air intrusion could be for south florida. Kept
a middle of the road philosophy for temperatures through the
period with a preference around the mean of the models.

Marine
A persistent southeasterly flow will continue through the day with
advisory conditions continuing over the atlantic waters. The wind
should begin to diminish over the gulf waters and lake okeechobee
this morning, allowing conditions to slowly improve. As the front
moves across the region on Thursday, increasing shower and
thunderstorm activity is expected. A brief dry period to kick off
the weekend will eventually give way to the next disturbance late
in the weekend into early next week.

Beach forecast
A high risk of rip currents will remain along the atlantic beaches
into Thursday thanks to a persistent southeasterly flow today that
will shift as the front pushes across the region tomorrow. Behind
the frontal passage, some of the gulf beaches could see a brief
elevated risk of rip currents on Friday.

Prev discussion issued 111 am est Wed jan 23 2019
aviation...

a tight pressure gradient across the area continues to bring
breezy conditions to south florida. This will continue until a
cold front moves through on Thursday. There are a few -shra along
the atlantic coast, but on sprinkles for the most part, so left
out of the tafs for now. Chances of rain should increase sometime
tomorrow night as the front begins to approach the area. A few ts
are also possible by Thursday morning.

Preliminary point temps pops
West palm beach 77 72 79 55 20 30 60 40
fort lauderdale 77 73 79 58 20 40 60 50
miami 78 73 79 59 10 30 50 50
naples 79 68 74 54 0 30 70 30

Mfl watches warnings advisories
Fl... High rip current risk through Thursday evening for flz168-172-
173.

Am... Small craft advisory until 7 am est this morning for amz610-630.

Small craft advisory until 4 pm est Thursday for amz650-651-670-
671.

Gm... Small craft advisory until 7 am est this morning for gmz676.

Discussion... 02 rag
marine... 02 rag
aviation... 13
beach forecast... 02 rag


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SPGF1 - Settlement Point, GBI 94 mi15 min E 12 G 15 67°F 1025.2 hPa (-0.5)

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure

Wind History from BCT (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Pelican Harbour, Abaco Island, Bahamas
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Pelican Harbour
Click for Map
Wed -- 03:25 AM EST     -0.01 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:55 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:59 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 09:44 AM EST     3.81 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:08 PM EST     0.04 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:43 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 08:43 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 10:12 PM EST     3.39 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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21.20.400.10.51.42.33.13.73.83.52.81.910.300.20.81.62.43.13.43.3

Tide / Current Tables for Nassau, New Providence Island, Bahamas
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Nassau
Click for Map
Wed -- 03:03 AM EST     -0.15 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:55 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:00 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 09:26 AM EST     3.70 feet High Tide
Wed -- 03:42 PM EST     -0.12 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:47 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 08:45 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 09:55 PM EST     3.37 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.60.80.1-0.10.10.71.52.53.23.63.63.12.31.40.5-0-0.10.30.91.82.63.23.43.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Miami-South Florida, FL (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Miami, FL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.