Tuesday, March28, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Harlem Heights, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 7:20AMSunset 7:44PM Tuesday March 28, 2017 8:00 AM EDT (12:00 UTC) Moonrise 6:53AMMoonset 7:32PM Illumination 1% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ856 Coastal Waters From Bonita Beach To Englewood Fl Out 20 Nm- 414 Am Edt Tue Mar 28 2017
Today..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest around 10 knots in the afternoon...then becoming west late. Seas 2 feet or less. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Tonight..Northwest winds around 10 knots then becoming east around 5 knots after midnight. Seas 2 feet or less. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Wednesday..Southeast winds around 5 knots then becoming southwest around 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 feet or less. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Wednesday night..Northwest winds around 10 knots then becoming northeast around 5 knots after midnight. Seas 2 feet or less. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Thursday..Southeast winds around 10 knots then becoming south in the afternoon. Seas 2 feet or less. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Thursday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots then becoming southeast around 15 knots after midnight. Seas 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop.
Friday..South winds around 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Friday night..Southwest winds around 15 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers.
Saturday..West winds around 5 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Bay and inland waters smooth. A slight chance of showers.
GMZ800 Synopsis For The Coastal Waters From Bonita Beach To Suwannee River- 414 Am Edt Tue Mar 28 2017
Synopsis.. Benign marine forecast the next several days as high pressure dominates the region. Light east to southeast flow overnight into the morning hours will turn west and southwest near the coast each afternoon with sea-breeze development...and then expand offshore with time through the afternoon/early evening hours. No rainfall is expected through at least Thursday. Confidence then increases that the approach of a cold front Thursday night into Friday will bring an increase in southerly winds, possibly to cautionary or advisory levels, and a potential round of Thunderstorms over the eastern gulf of mexico.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Harlem Heights, FL
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location: 26.49, -81.94     debug


Area Discussion for - Tampa Bay, FL
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Fxus62 ktbw 280711 cca
afdtbw
area forecast discussion... Corrected
national weather service tampa bay ruskin fl
309 am edt Tue mar 28 2017

Synopsis
07z water vapor and h4 rap analysis shows an amplified by
progressive mid/upper level pattern over north america early this
morning. Main features include a short-wave trough evolving through
the tn/oh valleys... With a weak trough extension down to northern
florida... Followed upstream by synoptic ridging through the plains
states and mid/lower ms valley... And finally followed upstream by a
sharp trough digging through the inter-mountain west/sw states. The
influence of the shortwave trough entering the eastern states is
staying just north of our region early this morning and will be
passing to our east this morning. This evolution will allow the
ridging to our west to build over the region during today. The
secondary trough out west will evolve into the central/southern
plains later today/tonight with an expected severe weather outbreak
across portions of that region. This trough and its associated
inclement weather will not be a concern for our region anytime soon.

At the surface... High pressure off the eastern seaboard continues to
ridge back to the southwest over the florida peninsula and eastern
gulf of mexico. The synoptic gradient within this ridge position is
providing a light easterly to variable flow this morning.

Short term (today through Wednesday)
As weak troughing pulls away from the region this morning... Heights
will again rise in response to mid/upper level ridging evolving
eastward form the central gulf of mexico over our region. The
synoptic pattern by late today will again feature stacked ridging in
place... Keeping our weather dry and warm through the middle of the
week.

Although significant troughing will be evolving into the central
plains during the next 24-36 hours... The slow evolution of this
system will allow the strong upper ridging to remain in control of
the fl peninsula through Wednesday. This ridging should exert enough
large scale suppression, keep the moisture layer shallow enough, and
maintain a hostile enough thermodynamic environment above 6-8kft to
prevent even isolated deep convection along the sea-breeze the next
couple of days. Therefore... Despite expected very well-defined sea-
breeze boundaries and strong bl focus along the boundaries evolving
inland the next couple afternoons... Pops will remain under 10%... And
the resulting CU fields should remain shallow and highly suppressed.

High temperatures the next couple of days will be well into the 80s
inland... And generally lower 80s at the coast. Shelf waters
temperatures are still generally in the lower to middle 70s... So
expect temperatures at the beaches to drop from the lower 80s to the
mid/upper 70s after the onset of the sea-breeze each afternoon. Low
temperatures tonight will be seasonable, with mid/upper 50s north to
the i-4 corridor... And upper 50s to lower 60s further south.

Normally warmer locations with e-se nocturnal flow, such as southern
pinellas county, and the capes of charlotte harbor will likely not
drop below the middle 60s.

Mid/long term
Mid/upper level ridging will be in place at the start of the
extended forecast period with dry weather and above normal
temperatures expected on Thursday. Temps will top out in the 80s
across the area with upper 80s expected across the interior zones.

Afternoon seabreeze will keep temps cooler along and near the coast.

On Friday, a mid/upper level trough will dig into the SE u.S.

Allowing a surface trough to move through our area bring some
increased rain chances. Models are in better agreement now compared
to a few days ago so have increased pops a bit compared to previous
forecasts. Upper ridging quickly builds back over the region for the
rest of the weekend and into Monday keeping us dry with above normal
temps continuing.

As we get into the early part of next week, greater forecast
uncertainty exists. Global models have been persistent on the
development of a significant shortwave trough / cut-off low feature
across the western u.S. Later this weekend and take the feature
eastward into the southern u.S. At the start of next week. While
both global models show this feature, there are major discrepancies
between them on timing, location and strength of this feature. All
of which will have impacts on our forecast. For now, have low end
rain chances on Monday and Tuesday until models have a better handle
on things.

Aviation (28/07z through 29/06z) once again the main
forecast parameter for this TAF package is a wind forecast
related to timing of the sea-breeze. A brief period of MVFR
vis is possible at klal/kpgd toward dawn this morning, but
no significant restrictions are expected. Light e-se flow
this morning will shift sw-w for coastal terminals during
the early to mid afternoon as the sea-breeze develops and
evolves slowly inland. Kpie will likely go briefly northeast
around midday with initial bay breeze before the gulf sea-
breeze arrives and turns winds westerly. Similar conditions
tonight with patchy areas of MVFR visibility, mainly for
klal/kpgd in the few hours surrounding sunrise.

Marine
Benign marine forecast the next several days as high pressure
dominates the region. Light east to southeast flow overnight into
the morning hours will turn west and southwest near the coast each
afternoon with sea-breeze development... And then expand offshore
with time through the afternoon/early evening hours. No rainfall is
expected through at least Thursday. Confidence then
increases that the approach of a cold front Thursday night
into Friday will bring an increase in southerly winds,
possibly to cautionary or advisory levels, and a potential
round of thunderstorms over the eastern gulf of mexico.

Fire weather
High pressure keeps the weather dry and warm through the next
several days. The next potential for any rainfall will not arrive
until at least Friday. Relative humidity is expected to briefly
approach or drop just under 35% away from the coast each of the next
two afternoons, however, extended durations of critical rh, and only
light forecast winds will keep red flag conditions from being met.

Fog potential... Patchy fog is expected away from the coast early
this morning, and again early Wednesday morning. However, widespread
and/or dense fog is not anticipated.

Preliminary point temps/pops
Tpa 81 65 82 66 / 0 0 0 0
fmy 84 63 84 64 / 0 0 0 0
gif 85 63 88 65 / 0 0 0 0
srq 77 64 78 63 / 0 0 0 0
bkv 83 57 85 58 / 0 0 0 0
spg 80 67 81 68 / 0 0 0 0

Tbw watches/warnings/advisories
Fl... None.

Gulf waters... None.

Synopsis/short term/aviation/marine/fire wx... Mroczka
mid term/long term/decision support... Mckaughan


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FMRF1 - 8725520 - Fort Myers, FL 11 mi43 min E 1 G 2.9 65°F 78°F1016.7 hPa
NPSF1 - 8725110 - Naples, FL 26 mi43 min 73°F1016.7 hPa
RKXF1 - Rookery Bay Reserve, FL 33 mi76 min NNE 2.9 59°F 57°F
VENF1 - Venice, FL 49 mi61 min ENE 7 G 8 63°F 71°F1016.4 hPa (+0.5)59°F

Wind History for Naples, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Fort Myers, Page Field, FL7 mi68 minE 310.00 miFair64°F59°F84%1016.7 hPa
Fort Myers, Southwest Florida International Airport, FL10 mi68 minN 010.00 miFair59°F55°F87%1016.5 hPa

Wind History from FMY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE5E6E6E9NE7N5NE6E7E55W5W8NW4CalmE4CalmCalmE3E3CalmCalmCalmE3Calm
1 day agoE4E9E12SE11SE9SE8E5E5
G16
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SE6SE6SE5E4SE6SE6SE5SE4S3CalmCalmCalmCalmE3NE4
2 days agoE10E13E12E10SE12
G18
E10E73--E9SW4SW3E6E4E5E4E4CalmE3NE4E3E5NE4NE4

Tide / Current Tables for Matanzas Pass (fixed bridge) Estero Island, Florida
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Matanzas Pass (fixed bridge) Estero Island
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Tue -- 01:41 AM EDT     2.31 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:22 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:34 AM EDT     0.26 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:53 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 01:55 PM EDT     2.29 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:43 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:01 PM EDT     -0.03 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:31 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
22.32.32.11.61.10.60.30.30.50.91.41.92.22.32.11.71.20.60.2-00.10.51

Tide / Current Tables for Point Ybel (0.4 Mi. NW of), Florida Current
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Point Ybel (0.4 Mi. NW of)
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:50 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 06:23 AM EDT     -1.06 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 07:23 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:53 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 09:03 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 11:48 AM EDT     1.41 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 02:51 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 06:40 PM EDT     -1.24 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 07:43 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:32 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 09:34 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.410.5-0.1-0.5-0.9-1-1-0.7-00.71.31.41.10.5-0.1-0.6-1-1.2-1.2-1-0.40.31

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Tampa Bay, FL (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Tampa Bay Area, FL
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.