Sunday, June25, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Punta Rassa, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:35AMSunset 8:25PM Sunday June 25, 2017 4:55 AM EDT (08:55 UTC) Moonrise 7:16AMMoonset 9:03PM Illumination 2% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ856 Coastal Waters From Bonita Beach To Englewood Fl Out 20 Nm- 351 Am Edt Sun Jun 25 2017
Today..Southeast winds around 5 knots then becoming west late in the afternoon. Seas 2 feet or less. Bay and inland waters smooth. Isolated Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Tonight..Northwest winds around 10 knots then becoming north after midnight, then becoming northeast around 5 knots toward morning. Seas 2 feet or less. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Isolated Thunderstorms.
Monday..East winds around 5 knots then becoming southwest around 5 knots late in the afternoon. Seas 2 feet or less. Bay and inland waters smooth. Isolated Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Monday night..West winds around 5 knots then becoming southeast toward morning. Seas 2 feet or less. Bay and inland waters smooth. Isolated Thunderstorms.
Tuesday..Southeast winds around 5 knots then becoming west around 10 knots late in the afternoon. Seas 2 feet or less. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Isolated Thunderstorms.
Tuesday night..Northwest winds around 10 knots then becoming east after midnight. Seas 2 feet or less. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Scattered Thunderstorms in the evening, then isolated Thunderstorms after midnight.
Wednesday..East winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 feet or less. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Isolated Thunderstorms.
Wednesday night..East winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Scattered Thunderstorms.
Thursday..East winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Scattered Thunderstorms.
GMZ800 Synopsis For The Coastal Waters From Bonita Beach To Suwannee River- 351 Am Edt Sun Jun 25 2017
Synopsis.. Surface high pressure from the atlantic extending west across the central florida peninsula and into the eastern gulf will maintain a southeast wind flow from bonita beach north to tarpon springs, with a southwest to west flow from tarpon springs north to the suwannee river during the next several days, with a weak pressure pattern supporting an enhanced onshore sea breeze component developing along the coast each afternoon. Scattered showers and Thunderstorms will develop over the land area each afternoon, with the storms then moving west into the gulf waters each evening. Wind and seas will be higher near Thunderstorms, otherwise no headlines are expected.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Punta Rassa, FL
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location: 26.5, -82.02     debug


Area Discussion for - Tampa Bay, FL
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Fxus62 ktbw 250751
afdtbw
area forecast discussion
national weather service tampa bay ruskin fl
351 am edt Sun jun 25 2017

Short term (Sunday - Monday night)
Our weather pattern for today is very similar to what we
saw yesterday with a few subtle changes. Surface ridge axis
ridge axis placement will keep a light flow in place over
central fl with winds southeasterly across our southern
zones with a more southwesterly flow expected across the
nature coast. Could see a few light showers develop over the
gulf and move ashore north of tampa bay during the mid late
morning. By early afternoon, the seabreeze will begin to
push inland shifting winds to the west across the area.

Similar to yesterday, seabreeze collision will be across the
interior portions of the forecast area and this is where
the highest rain chances are depicted in the forecast.

Models are showing slightly cooler temps aloft and a bit
more moisture so looks like we should have a bit more storm
coverage compared to Saturday. Temps once again will be
warm, it is june in florida after all, with highs in the low
to mid 90s with heat indices near 100.

On Monday, a frontal boundary encroaching on north florida
should help lead to an increase in moisture and cooling
aloft. This should lead to more widespread coverage of
showers and storms across the area. Current forecast has
likely pops (60-70%) along and east of i- 75 where the
highest moisture and lift will be with 30-40 percent near
the gulf coast. Temps again will be in the lower 90s.

Long term (Tuesday - Sunday)
Good agreement among the guidance members that a weak
diffuse low-level boundary will still be place across the
central to north- central florida peninsula Tuesday morning.

The apparent position of this boundary can be determined by
the confluence zone and evolution of the 0-500m ml cape
evolution through the day. The fact that this subtle
boundary remains in place, however, weak will keep the
convective evolution highly uncertain in pattern timing, but
almost certainly active... As sea-breeze and frontal
interaction within a moist column gives little reason to
assume otherwise. One possible wildcard would be the
evolution of the sea-breeze. Does the weak gradient and
resulting weak low level synoptic flow allow a defined sea-
breeze to move inland and concentrate the convection during
the late day evening over the interior, or are there enough
clouds early showers along the boundary to prevent that kind
of defined sea- breeze. These type of details will become
more clear as Tuesday gets closer, however, are difficult to
lean one way or another due to how subtle these differences
can be. For now will go with chance pops near the coast,
and likely pops inland, since either solution would suggest
active storms inland from i-75.

The real transition in our weather pattern to the one that
will define the forecast through the remainder of the week
occurs Tuesday night. Continental high pressure will emerge
off the carolina coast during the night, shifting a tighter
gradient down into our region and finally washing out the
diffuse boundary. By Wednesday morning, the low level
1000-850mb synoptic flow will have shifting out of the east.

This easterly flow will favor the strongest and most
numerous convection along the i75 corridor during the late
afternoon and evening hours. Gfs ECMWF both show a tight
moisture gradient near headed northward toward the i-10
corridor, but both would suggest no significant negative
factors from this drying until beyond our northern borders.

Thursday and Friday look to hold this diurnal convective
pattern with a continued veering of the low level synoptic
flow to a ese direction as the surface ridge continue to
shift eastward into the atlantic. If anything, ese SE flow
is even more favorable for west coast convection during the
late day period than easterly flow, as it usually brings
high levels of low level moisture. Either way, with a
favorable flow pattern and little hostility in the
moisture thermodynamic profiles, we can expect a lot of late
day storm activity during all of these days.

By next weekend, the surface ridge axis begins to move
southward over the peninsula, and this will begin a
transition back toward a neutral flow pattern for convective
evolution. Saturday, although the flow is weaker, will
still primarily be out of the se, and favor west coast
storms late in the day. By, Sunday though, it is appearing
as though storms will initiate near the coast early
afternoon and then consolidate inland with time.

No significant departures form normal in temperature are
anticipated through the long term forecast period.

Aviation
Vfr generally expected for the rest of the overnight
although some brief bkn CIGS around 2500 ft will be
possible at times. After sunrise,VFR should continue into
the early afternoon. After which additional brief MVFR ifr
cigs vsbys will be possible after 17z as shra tsra develop
over the region. Southeast winds at 4 to 6 knots early
Sunday morning will become southwest to west at 8 to 10
knots after 17z as the west coast sea breeze develops and
moves inland.

Marine
Surface high pressure will remain over the area bringing us
a southeast to southwest flow for the next few days. With
a weak pressure pattern supporting a typical summer
afternoon for boaters with most showers occurring over land
with heating of the day. However boaters should still watch
out for a few storms in the gulf that could produce gusty
winds and locally higher waves.

Fire weather
With moist southeasterly flow continuing into next week,
moisture content and relative humidity values will remain
well above critical levels. This combined with chances for
rain each day will prevent any fire weather concerns.

Preliminary point temps pops
Tpa 91 78 90 77 40 10 50 30
fmy 93 76 92 75 30 30 40 30
gif 94 76 92 74 50 40 70 50
srq 89 76 89 76 20 10 30 20
bkv 92 74 91 73 50 10 60 30
spg 90 79 90 77 30 10 40 20

Tbw watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Gulf waters... None.

Short term aviation marine fire weather... 11 mckaughan
mid term long term decision support... 14 mroczka


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FMRF1 - 8725520 - Fort Myers, FL 13 mi37 min ESE 1.9 G 2.9 78°F 89°F1018.2 hPa
NPSF1 - 8725110 - Naples, FL 28 mi37 min ENE 2.9 G 4.1 87°F1018.2 hPa
RKXF1 - Rookery Bay Reserve, FL 35 mi70 min NE 1.9 75°F 74°F
VENF1 - Venice, FL 46 mi55 min E 5.1 G 6 80°F 87°F1018.3 hPa (-0.7)76°F

Wind History for Naples, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Fort Myers, Page Field, FL10 mi62 minE 310.00 miMostly Cloudy78°F77°F97%1018.3 hPa
Fort Myers, Southwest Florida International Airport, FL14 mi62 minENE 310.00 miFair77°F75°F94%1018.1 hPa

Wind History from FMY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE3E3CalmE4E5SE4E66S4W7W3SW9
G16
NW8NW7W4CalmN83CalmE4CalmE3E3E3
1 day agoE3E3E4E5SE8SE9SE6SE6SE9E6NW83W3SW6SW10SW4S4SE3CalmNE3E3CalmE3E4
2 days agoCalmCalmE3E4SE8SE9E9
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Tide / Current Tables for Punta Rassa, San Carlos Bay, Florida
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Punta Rassa
Click for Map
Sun -- 04:20 AM EDT     1.52 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:36 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 06:54 AM EDT     1.37 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 08:16 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 01:49 PM EDT     2.99 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:24 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 09:34 PM EDT     -0.46 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 10:03 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.40.81.21.41.51.51.41.41.41.622.32.72.932.82.41.81.10.4-0.1-0.4-0.4-0.2

Tide / Current Tables for Point Ybel (0.4 Mi. NW of), Florida Current
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Point Ybel (0.4 Mi. NW of)
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:00 AM EDT     1.30 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 06:36 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 06:55 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 07:23 AM EDT     -0.03 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 07:49 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 08:16 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 11:42 AM EDT     1.31 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 02:34 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 07:20 PM EDT     -1.93 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 08:24 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 10:02 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 10:54 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.21.31.210.70.50.2-000.30.81.21.310.4-0.3-0.9-1.4-1.7-1.9-1.9-1.5-0.80.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Tampa Bay, FL (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Tampa Bay Area, FL
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.