Thursday, April27, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Pine Island Center, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:50AMSunset 7:59PM Thursday April 27, 2017 10:37 PM EDT (02:37 UTC) Moonrise 7:01AMMoonset 8:29PM Illumination 4% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ856 Coastal Waters From Bonita Beach To Englewood Fl Out 20 Nm- 831 Pm Edt Thu Apr 27 2017
Rest of tonight..South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast around 10 knots. Seas 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Friday..Southeast winds around 10 knots becoming south in the afternoon. Seas 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Friday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots then becoming east around 15 knots after midnight. Seas 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop.
Saturday..Southeast winds around 15 knots then becoming around 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop.
Saturday night..Southeast winds around 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop.
Sunday..Southeast winds around 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop.
Sunday night..Southeast winds around 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop.
Monday..South winds around 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Monday night..South winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Tuesday..South winds around 10 knots then becoming southwest around 5 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A slight chance of showers.
GMZ800 Synopsis For The Coastal Waters From Bonita Beach To Suwannee River- 831 Pm Edt Thu Apr 27 2017
Synopsis.. High pressure centered over the atlantic will continue to ridge west across southern florida through the weekend. This will keep southeast to south winds in place with a shift to southwest near the coast each afternoon as the sea breeze develops. Winds will increase to around exercise caution levels Sunday and Monday as another front moves into the region.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Pine Island Center, FL
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location: 26.59, -82.17     debug


Area Discussion for - Tampa Bay, FL
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Fxus62 ktbw 280051
afdtbw
area forecast discussion
national weather service tampa bay ruskin fl
851 pm edt Thu apr 27 2017

Update
00z water vapor and h4 rap analysis shows the beginning
stages of upper ridge building over the eastern gulf of
mexico and fl peninsula have commenced. This upper ridge
will be the dominant player in our weather through the
upcoming weekend, as it protects the forecast area from any
real inclement weather attempting to move eastward from
upstream.

This ridge will be complimented by a surface ridge axis
extending from the atlantic, across the peninsula and into
the gulf of mexico. Overall, we are looking at a very
summer-like synoptic pattern, and will be certainly seeing
summer-like temperatures. The sea-surface temperatures are
still generally in the 70s, so unlike the pure summer,
dewpoints will not be as high, and it will not feel overly
oppressive.

On the flip side of the coin, the lack of low level moisture
and strong subsidence aloft will likely almost completely
prevent any chances for sea-breeze showers/storms. The
chances will not be zero, but just very low at any one
location to see a passing storms. One lone thunderstorm was
able to break through the hostile air aloft this evening as
sea-breezes collided over highlands county. A renegade
similar type storm is possible again late Friday, however,
it will be fighting even greater thermodynamic hostility
aloft as the upper ridge continues to strengthen.

So... The main thing to take from the forecast the next few
days, so that it will be hot. Even the beaches will get
pretty toasty by early afternoon, and then settle back down
through the 80s as the sea-breeze kicks in and turns winds
off the relatively cooler shelf waters.

Those shelf waters are continuing to warm, and it will not
be too long before they cross a crucial threshold, and add
yet one more ingredient to the start of the summer storm
season.

Aviation (28/00z through 29/00z)
The synoptic situation has not changed significantly since
early Thursday morning, and therefore areas of shallow
field fog are possible once again between roughly 07-11z at
klal/kpgd/kfmy/krsw. Have included MVFR vis, but a period of
ifr is not out of the question given what occurred last
night. Although some guidance has been bullish with fog near
the coast later tonight, have disregarded this as unlikely
and kept restrictions out of ktpa/kpie/ksrq. Any fog is gone
very early Friday morning... Followed by prevailingVFR the
remainder of the day. Just a slight chance of an isolated
shower along the sea-breeze after 21z, but potential low
enough to leave mention out of the tafs at this point.

Prev discussion /issued 247 pm edt Thu apr 27 2017/
short term (tonight - Friday)...

an upper level low sits over southwestern ontario with broad
troughing extending over the central u.S. Upper level ridging
continues to hold over the florida peninsula and will further build
through the short term period. On the surface, an area of low
pressure just north of the great lakes extends a cold front over the
eastern great lakes region and further southward along the
appalachian mountain chain. The trailing edge of this front
dissipates over southern georgia/northern florida as high pressure
continues to ridge across the peninsula through the end of the week
and into the weekend. This will keep a southeast through southwest
wind flow over the area which will result in above average
temperatures. The coastal counties will top out in the upper 80's,
while the inland counties will see daytime highs in the 90's. Rain
free conditions will continue through the end of the week.

Mid/long term...

strong mid-level ridge will keep us hot and dry into the weekend.

H5 heights of 591+ dm will support high temps soaring well
above normal Saturday and again on Sunday with widespread
90s expected with some mid 90s possible across interior
zones. Some record high temperatures will certainly be
possible. The location of the atlantic surface ridge will
keep a SE wind flow in place through the weekend.

The ridge will break down at the start of next week as a low
pressure system develops across the central u.S. This
system will gradually move towards the great lakes region
while an associated frontal boundary approaches the area
Monday. Upper-level support looks to diminish as the front
moves towards the area. GFS continues to show the front
moving through at least the bay area while the ECMWF keeps
it draped across the nature coast. Forecast continues to
lean more towards the euro solution for now but either way,
low end pops continue in the forecast for Monday and Tuesday
with warm temperatures continuing.

Late in the forecast period, and just beyond, models continue
to show a major pattern change across the CONUS with deep
upper-level troughing developing across the eastern u.S.

Will see how this plays out over time as it is still over a
week from now and much can change between now and then. Stay
tuned.

Aviation...

the stratus/fog from this morning has dissipated and a cu/sc cloud
deck has developed over the region. Even with the cu/sc clouds,
conditions are expected to remainVFR through late tonight. Some
patchy fog and low clouds will be possible once again tonight that
may bring some MVFR/ifr conditions to the terminals early Friday
morning. Predominant wind flow will be out of the southwest this
afternoon/evening, then becoming more southeast overnight. No other
aviation impacts expected.

Marine...

high pressure will continue to ridge from the atlantic into the
eastern gulf of mexico through the weekend. A weak front washing out
over the northern gulf today will produce a tight pressure gradient,
with cautionary headlines needed for the gulf waters north of tarpon
springs for the remainder of the day. Winds will increase again to
around exercise caution levels Sunday and Monday as another front
moves into the region.

Fire weather...

dry and rain free conditions continue across west central and
southwest florida into the weekend. Relative humidity values may
briefly drop below 35 percent over the inland counties today, but
should not be below 35 percent for more than a couple of hours, so
no red flag warning will be needed. With that being said, drought
conditions continue across the region and county burn bans remain in
place for many counties. Humidity values will be on the rise into
the weekend and a chance of rain will occur on Monday and Tuesday
next week which will briefly reduce the risk of wildfires.

Preliminary point temps/pops
Tpa 73 91 74 91 / 10 20 10 0
fmy 72 92 73 91 / 0 20 0 0
gif 71 96 72 93 / 0 10 10 0
srq 71 87 72 86 / 10 20 10 0
bkv 67 95 69 93 / 0 20 10 0
spg 73 90 75 90 / 10 10 10 0

Tbw watches/warnings/advisories
Fl... None.

Gulf waters... None.

Update/aviation/marine... 14/mroczka
upper air... 99
decision support... 99


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FMRF1 - 8725520 - Fort Myers, FL 16 mi49 min S 2.9 G 4.1 79°F 83°F1013.8 hPa
VENF1 - Venice, FL 37 mi97 min S 4.1 G 5.1 77°F 79°F1013.1 hPa (+1.0)73°F
NPSF1 - 8725110 - Naples, FL 37 mi49 min SE 1.9 G 2.9 80°F1014 hPa
RKXF1 - Rookery Bay Reserve, FL 45 mi112 min SSE 1.9 76°F 69°F

Wind History for Naples, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Fort Myers, Page Field, FL16 mi44 minN 010.00 miFair79°F73°F82%1014.1 hPa
Fort Myers, Southwest Florida International Airport, FL22 mi44 minWSW 410.00 miFair77°F69°F77%1013.8 hPa

Wind History from FMY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmSE3SE5SE4SE4E4SE7SE54SE5SE5S74S54SW12S11SW13SW11SW14SW11SW6S3Calm
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3E4SE5SE7S6SE7SW8S9
G16
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2 days agoW7NW12W6W7W11NW8W9W6NW5NW5NW6NW12W10W9W10W9NW11NW11W10W12W5W7W6W4

Tide / Current Tables for Redfish Pass, Captiva Island (north end), Florida
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Redfish Pass
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Thu -- 03:02 AM EDT     1.56 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:53 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:35 AM EDT     0.81 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:01 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 01:52 PM EDT     2.28 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:59 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:58 PM EDT     -0.37 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 09:29 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.91.21.51.61.51.310.80.811.31.622.22.32.11.81.20.60.1-0.2-0.4-0.30

Tide / Current Tables for Boca Grande Pass, Charlotte Harbor, Florida Current
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Boca Grande Pass
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:39 AM EDT     3.00 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 04:36 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 06:41 AM EDT     -0.88 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 06:53 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:01 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 08:38 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 12:03 PM EDT     2.72 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 02:55 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 06:41 PM EDT     -3.46 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 07:59 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:30 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 10:26 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.832.41.50.5-0.3-0.8-0.9-0.50.31.42.32.72.41.3-0.1-1.6-2.7-3.3-3.4-3-2-0.70.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Tampa Bay, FL (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Tampa Bay Area, FL
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Gulf Stream Current


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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.