Tuesday, August21, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Pineland, FL

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Sunrise 7:01AMSunset 8:00PM Tuesday August 21, 2018 8:19 AM EDT (12:19 UTC) Moonrise 3:49PMMoonset 1:53AM Illumination 76% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ856 Coastal Waters From Bonita Beach To Englewood Fl Out 20 Nm- 452 Am Edt Tue Aug 21 2018
Today..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots then becoming southwest around 10 knots late in the afternoon. Seas 2 feet or less. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Isolated Thunderstorms.
Tonight..West winds around 10 knots then becoming northeast around 5 knots after midnight. Seas 2 feet or less. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Isolated Thunderstorms after midnight.
Wednesday..East winds around 5 knots then becoming southeast around 5 knots late in the morning, then becoming west around 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 feet or less. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Isolated Thunderstorms.
Wednesday night..West winds around 10 knots diminishing to around 5 knots after midnight. Seas 2 feet or less. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Isolated Thunderstorms after midnight.
Thursday..Southwest winds around 5 knots increasing to around 10 knots late in the afternoon. Seas 2 feet or less. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Isolated Thunderstorms.
Thursday night..West winds around 10 knots then becoming south around 5 knots toward morning. Seas 2 feet or less. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Isolated Thunderstorms.
Friday..Southeast winds around 5 knots then becoming south in the afternoon. Seas 2 feet or less. Bay and inland waters smooth. Isolated Thunderstorms in the morning, then scattered Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Friday night..Northeast winds around 5 knots then becoming east around 10 knots after midnight. Seas 2 feet or less. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Scattered Thunderstorms.
Saturday..Southeast winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Numerous Thunderstorms.
GMZ800 Synopsis For The Coastal Waters From Bonita Beach To Suwannee River- 452 Am Edt Tue Aug 21 2018
Synopsis.. High pressure continues to reside over the eastern gulf of mexico today, keeping winds and seas (outside of scattered Thunderstorms) low. A weak cold front will approach the region from the north tonight and then stall over the northeast gulf Wednesday. This front will act to shift winds to a more predominant west to southwest direction, and will likely bring an enhancement to the coverage of showers and storms, especially to the north of tarpon springs. The front will decay during the later part of the week, allowing a very weak gradient, and resulting light winds to again develop over the eastern gulf of mexico.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Pineland, FL
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location: 26.7, -82.32     debug


Area Discussion for - Tampa Bay, FL
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Fxus62 ktbw 211121
afdtbw
area forecast discussion
national weather service tampa bay ruskin fl
721 am edt Tue aug 21 2018

Aviation
Vfr conditions are expected to prevail outside of any thunderstorms.

Light and variable winds this morning will shift onshore near the
coast early this afternoon with the sea breeze. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected through the afternon and evening, with
activity generally shifting inland through the day. Storms will
dissipate within a few hours of sunset, with dryVFR conditions
overnight.

Prev discussion issued 412 am edt Tue aug 21 2018
synopsis...

08z water vapor and h4 rap analysis continues to show a rather ill-
defined middle and upper level pattern in place over florida this
morning. 21 00z ktbw sounding profile measured a pw value of just
over 2", with remain in the vicinity of climo for the time of year.

Goes16 multi-layer WV imagery also shows no significant area of
above or below normal moisture over the region. The last of the
convective high level debris cirrus from Monday evening's storms has
dissipated, resulting in mostly clear skies across a good portion of
the peninsula... Along and south of the i-4 corridor. At the surface,
the subtropical ridge axis is aligned through the central part of
the peninsula and into the eastern gulf of mexico. This ridge
position puts the forecast area in a light variable wind convection
pattern for today.

The light synoptic flow has allowed the nocturnal land breeze
circulation to take control of the air flow early this morning, with
most stations reporting light offshore winds. Isolated coverage
of typical early morning storms has formed along this land-
breeze boundary over the coastal waters. From the tampa bay
area southward, this flow should be strong enough to keep
this activity offshore through the morning hours. Further
north along the nature coast, a position north of the ridge
axis and resulting light SW synoptic flow is keeping the
land breeze less dominant and will likely allow some of
these isolated showers storms to occasionally make their way
back to the coast during the next several hours.

Short term (today through Wednesday)...

today... A light and variable synoptic flow pattern will define the
convective evolution of diurnal storms. Little signal in the
atmospheric column to enhance or suppress storm development suggests
staying close to the climatological spatial and temporal evolution
for storms during this type of light flow.

Other than a few isolated showers along the nature coast this
morning, the rest of the region should see a generally dry first
several daylight hours, as temperatures warm through the 80s. Weak
and feeble sea-breeze development will commence around midday, with
the first scattered storms going up along this boundary in the
vicinity of the coast. As the afternoon progresses, the general
evolution of storms will be to have the favored storm genesis region
progress slowly inland to the north of the tampa bay area within a
light SW synoptic flow, and to hold closer to the i-75 corridor from
tampa bay southward, with variable to light SE flow. Beyond the
middle to later afternoon hours, storm evolution will have less and
less to do with the synoptic setup and become highly dependent on
convective outflow. When the flow is light, this outflow finds
little resistance to propagation, but also does not favor storm
development when moving any particular direction. Therefore, this
evening, storm spatial coverage will generally become rather uniform
from the i-4 corridor southward, while still favoring a more inland
position further to the north.

Storms gradually diminish into the later evening hours with the loss
of surface diurnal heating and less instability aloft due to
abundant latent heat release from earlier convection.

Overnight, a weak cold front will progress southward through the
deep south reaching the northeast gulf coast and essentially
stalling just to our north by Wednesday morning. Do not get too
excited about a cold front. This is a weak boundary, and will not be
providing any relief from the summer heat and humidity. Still too
early to expect anything like that. In fact, the presence of the
front to our north will provide a longer fetch of W SW flow over the
warm waters of the gulf and likely contribute to even higher
dewpoints through the middle of the week. After midnight into
Wednesday morning, the SW W synoptic flow will be most defined from
tarpon spring northward. The west flow is already climo favored for
morning showers to move ashore, but add the frontal proximity and we
should expect at least scattered, if not numerous showers storms to
be present along the nature coast by the time of sunrise. A few
showers along the coast can be expected further south as well,
however, weaker synoptic flow and further distance from frontal
enhancement should keep coverage considerably less.

The convective pattern for the daylight hours of Wednesday would be
to expect initial scattered storm development near the coast through
midday, but with a pronounced trend toward greater storm coverage
inland with time as the synoptic flow quickly propagates the west
coast seabreeze inland toward the central part of the peninsula.

Long term (Thursday through next Monday)...

large scale pattern for the late week and upcoming weekend period
remains fairly consistent from model to model and run to
run... Adding higher than average confidence to the forecast. Weak
stationary frontal boundary over the NE gulf of mexico and northern
florida will quickly dissipate during the latter half of the work
week and is replaced by decently strong high pressure building down
the eastern seaboard. The position of a strong ridge to our north
will provide the region with a well-defined and fairly strong
synoptic E SE flow through the upcoming weekend and into the early
portion of next week. This type of flow favors greatest diurnal
thunderstorm coverage each day to occur along the i-75 corridor of
the state, with a generally later start time to the convection
(later afternoon early evening). Only concern for this part of the
forecast, is if the large scale flow actually becomes strong enough
to prevent a west coast seabreeze or keeps the feeble boundary just
offshore. If this was to occur, best storm coverage could be
confined to the immediate coast. At this time, will assume some of
the stronger model solutions are overdone, as this type of strong
flow is very unusual for late august. Therefore the forecast will
follow a philosophy of near climo temps and sct-nmrs late
afternoon evening storms through the end of the forecast period.

Mentioned this last night and will again today. An fyi to boaters...

stronger southeast east flow can pose a danger of storms developing
in the later afternoon hours and rapidly moving offshore into the
coastal waters. We frequently see instances during strong southeast
flow were storms develop and move offshore rapidly enough to
block prevent a safe path back to harbor for anyone navigating away
from the immediate coast. There remains plenty of time to watch the
forecast through the week, but for those looking to get some
pleasure boating done next weekend, it is unlikely that a
significant shift in the forecast philosophy will occur, and it is
important to keep this hazardous potential in mind.

Aviation (21 08z through 22 12z)...

vfr conditions prevail for the morning hours for the west-
central and southwest florida terminals. Light variable se
winds shift onshore near the coast around midday, with
increasing potential for typical summer thunderstorm
development into the afternoon hours. Outside of any brief
passing thunderstorm,VFR conditions will prevail. Scattered
storms fade within a couple hours of sunset this evening,
allowing mainly dryVFR conditions to remain in the forecast
into Wednesday morning.

Marine...

high pressure continues to reside over the eastern gulf of mexico
today, keeping winds and seas (outside of scattered thunderstorms)
low. A weak cold front will approach the region from the north
tonight and then stall over the northeast gulf Wednesday. This front
will act to shift winds to a more predominant west to southwest
direction, and will likely bring an enhancement to the coverage of
showers and storms, especially to the north of tarpon springs. The
front will decay during the later part of the week, allowing a very
weak gradient, and resulting light winds to again develop over the
eastern gulf of mexico.

Fire weather...

no significant fire weather concerns in the forecast through the
next several days as typical summer conditions persist over west-
central and southwest florida. Relative humidity remains well above
critical levels, with a scattering of mainly afternoon and evening
showers and storms each day.

Fog potential... No significant fog or visibility reductions are
anticipated through the next several days.

Preliminary point temps pops
Tpa 91 78 90 78 30 10 30 20
fmy 91 76 90 76 30 40 30 20
gif 92 75 91 75 60 50 40 10
srq 89 78 89 78 20 20 20 20
bkv 90 75 89 75 50 20 30 20
spg 91 79 89 78 20 20 30 30

Tbw watches warnings advisories
Fl... Beach hazards statement through Thursday evening for
coastal charlotte-coastal lee-coastal manatee-coastal
sarasota.

Gulf waters... None.

Aviation... 05 carlisle


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FMRF1 - 8725520 - Fort Myers, FL 24 mi32 min E 2.9 G 4.1
VENF1 - Venice, FL 27 mi20 min E 6 G 7 77°F 89°F76°F
BGCF1 - Big Carlos Pass, FL 31 mi146 min E 4.1 G 5.1 78°F 1019.2 hPa
42013 - C10 - Navy-2 46 mi50 min ESE 7.8 G 9.7 85°F1018.7 hPa
NPSF1 - 8725110 - Naples, FL 48 mi32 min 76°F 87°F1019 hPa

Wind History for Naples, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Punta Gorda, Charlotte County Airport, FL23 mi27 minE 310.00 miFair76°F72°F88%1020 hPa

Wind History from PGD (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE6E54SE6S4CalmS4W7CalmSE11N10CalmCalmE3NE3CalmCalm--CalmCalmCalmNE4CalmE3
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G25
S11E9N6SE4N4NE4E6E3E3E5E3CalmCalmNE5E3E3
2 days agoSE6E5NE73CalmSE4NE55SE12S6SE5N3E5SE4CalmE4CalmE3CalmCalmE3CalmCalmSE5

Tide / Current Tables for Port Boca Grande, Charlotte Harbor, Florida
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Port Boca Grande
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Tue -- 12:41 AM EDT     1.17 feet High Tide
Tue -- 02:06 AM EDT     1.14 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 02:53 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 07:03 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:23 AM EDT     1.73 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:48 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:02 PM EDT     0.22 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:00 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.21.21.11.21.21.31.41.61.71.71.71.61.41.10.80.50.30.20.30.40.60.811.1

Tide / Current Tables for Boca Grande Pass, Charlotte Harbor, Florida Current
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Boca Grande Pass
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Tue -- 02:53 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 03:02 AM EDT     0.06 knots Min Flood
Tue -- 07:03 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:20 AM EDT     1.33 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 11:17 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 03:25 PM EDT     -2.18 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 04:48 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:17 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 08:00 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 11:05 PM EDT     1.97 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.30.80.30.10.20.71.11.31.310.70.2-0.5-1.1-1.8-2.1-2.1-1.7-1-0.20.51.21.82

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Tampa Bay, FL (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Tampa Bay Area, FL
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.