Monday, November12, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Burnt Store Marina, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:45AMSunset 5:39PM Monday November 12, 2018 7:12 PM EST (00:12 UTC) Moonrise 11:06AMMoonset 9:56PM Illumination 24% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ856 Coastal Waters From Bonita Beach To Englewood Fl Out 20 Nm- 303 Pm Est Mon Nov 12 2018
Tonight..Southeast winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 feet or less. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Tuesday..South winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A chance of showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Tuesday night..South winds around 5 knots then becoming east in the late evening and overnight. Seas 2 feet or less. Bay and inland waters smooth. A chance of showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Wednesday..East winds around 10 knots then becoming north around 5 knots late in the afternoon. Seas 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A chance of showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Wednesday night..Northeast winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Showers likely and a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Thursday..East winds around 10 knots then becoming northwest late in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Showers likely and a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Thursday night..North winds around 15 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers.
Friday..North winds around 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop.
Friday night..North winds around 15 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop.
Saturday..North winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
GMZ800 Synopsis For The Coastal Waters From Bonita Beach To Suwannee River- 303 Pm Est Mon Nov 12 2018
Synopsis..A warm front will lift north of the waters through tonight as high pressure from the atlantic extending west across the central peninsula remains in place through Wednesday. A cold front will move south through the waters during Thursday and Thursday night with increasing northwest to north winds and building seas with hazardous marine conditions expected in its wake on Friday. Lighter winds and lower seas will return to the waters during the weekend as high pressure builds in over the gulf in the wake of the front.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Burnt Store Marina, FL
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location: 26.76, -82.06     debug


Area Discussion for - Tampa Bay, FL
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Fxus62 ktbw 121901
afdtbw
area forecast discussion
national weather service tampa bay ruskin fl
201 pm est Mon nov 12 2018

Near record high temperatures possible on Tuesday...

Short term (tonight - Tuesday)
A positively tilted upper level trough over the central
rockies this afternoon will slow down as it moves
southeastward into the southern plains tonight through
Tuesday as it encounters strong upper ridging to its east
with a cut-off low developing over eastern texas through
Wednesday. At the surface an area of low pressure over the
gulf coast along a frontal boundary draped across the
northern gulf coast will move northeast along the boundary
across the deep south tonight, deepening as it moves
northeast up along the mid atlantic coast on Tuesday with a
trailing cold front limping eastward through the panhandle
tonight, and then approaching the northern peninsula on
Tuesday as it becomes parallel to the deep layered southwest
flow aloft.

For tonight ample moisture within the warm sector south of
the northward moving warm front combined with light winds
will support some fog development overnight, especially from
central interior zones north into the nature coast. In
addition to the fog some low rain chances (pops 20 percent)
will remain in the forecast as well, mainly across the
northern nature coast closest to the warm front. It will be
a very mild and muggy night with overnight lows in the upper
60s to lower 70s area-wide.

On Tuesday upper level and surface ridging from the atlantic
and extending west across the south-central peninsula will
remain in control as the aforementioned cold front limps
eastward toward the northern peninsula during the day.

Adequate moisture and instability within the warm sector
should support some scattered showers and isolated storms
under partly to mostly cloudy skies. A south to southwest
wind flow will make for another very warm day with
temperatures again climbing into the mid and upper 80s
during the afternoon with some near record highs again
possible.

Long term (Tuesday night - Monday)
A highly amplified upper pattern has set up over the conus
to start out the long term period. A broad elongated area
of ridging south of bermuda extends southwest over the
bahamas, cuba and into the central caribbean sea. Farther to
the west, a closed upper low over eastern texas sits in the
base of a deepening trough that will sweep through the
southeast u.S. Through the end of the week. The eastern half
of the u.S. Will be under the influence of broad troughing
by Saturday and will continue into next week. This troughing
will lend support to the next weather system moving through
the southeast u.S. Later this week and also help to usher
in some much cooler air through the weekend.

On the surface, high pressure has shifted east of bermuda
while an extensive frontal boundary extends along the
eastern seaboard from an area of low pressure near maine.

The low moves rapidly to the northeast by Wednesday evening
and the frontal boundary becomes oriented more northeast
through southwest and extends over northern florida into the
gulf of mexico. Another area of low pressure develops along
the trailing edge of this front by late Wednesday into
Thursday and will give us our highest chance of rain storms
(50- 70% pops) during that period. The system is expected to
exit the area by late Thursday as high pressure pushes into
the area from the northwest. With this high pressure,
pleasant weather with cooler and drier air can be expected
through the weekend and into next week.

Aviation
Some MVFR ifr CIGS and vsbys from some low clouds and fog
may impact the terminals between 09-13z Tuesday morning,
otherwiseVFR is expected during the next 24 hours.

Southeast to south winds around 10 knots this afternoon will
diminish to 5 knots or less after 02z tonight, then
increase to 6 to 8 knots after 15z on Tuesday.

Marine
A warm front will lift north of the waters later tonight.

High pressure from the atlantic across the south-central
peninsula will support a southeast to southerly wind flow
over the gulf waters tonight as a cold front slowly moves
east toward the western panhandle. During Tuesday through
Wednesday a south to southwest wind flow can be expected
across the waters as the aforementioned cold front moves
toward the northern peninsula. During Thursday developing
low pressure across the northeast gulf will deepen as it
moves northeast up along the eastern seaboard through
Friday. As the low lifts out to the northeast a trailing
cold front will get pulled southeast through the waters late
Thursday night into Friday with winds shifting into the
northwest and north in its wake with cautionary or small
craft conditions likely on Friday with hazardous boating
conditions developing. Lighter winds and seas will return to
the waters on Saturday as surface high pressure builds in
over the gulf in the wake of the front.

Fire weather
Humidity values will remain above critical levels through
the remainder of the week with no fire weather hazards
expected. Some late night and early morning fog will be
possible over inland locations the next few days with some
reduced visibility possible. Drier and cooler air will move
into the region late in the week and into next weekend in
the wake of a cold front with much lower humidity expected.

Climate
Here are the record high temperatures for Tuesday.

Tampa... ... ... ..89 set back in 1993
lakeland... ... ..93 set back in 1986
sarasota... ... ..92 set back in 1972
ft myers... ... ..90 set back in 1993
st petersburg... 88 set back in 1972

Preliminary point temps pops
Tpa 73 84 71 82 20 40 30 50
fmy 72 87 72 86 10 30 30 50
gif 70 86 69 84 10 50 30 60
srq 72 84 71 82 10 40 30 50
bkv 68 84 67 81 30 40 30 60
spg 72 83 71 82 20 40 30 50

Tbw watches warnings advisories
Fl... Beach hazards statement through Tuesday evening for
coastal manatee-coastal sarasota-pinellas.

Gulf waters... None.

Short term aviation marine fire weather... 57 mcmichael
long term decision support... 74 wynn


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FMRF1 - 8725520 - Fort Myers, FL 13 mi42 min SSW 4.1 G 6 80°F 82°F1015.7 hPa
BGCF1 - Big Carlos Pass, FL 26 mi78 min SSW 7 G 8.9 81°F 1015.9 hPa
VENF1 - Venice, FL 30 mi132 min S 8 G 8.9 80°F 79°F1015.1 hPa (-1.1)74°F
NPSF1 - 8725110 - Naples, FL 45 mi42 min 1 G 5.1 81°F 81°F1015.7 hPa

Wind History for Naples, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Punta Gorda, Charlotte County Airport, FL12 mi19 minSW 510.00 miA Few Clouds78°F72°F82%1016.7 hPa
Fort Myers, Page Field, FL16 mi19 minSW 310.00 miA Few Clouds78°F73°F87%1016.1 hPa
Fort Myers, Southwest Florida International Airport, FL22 mi19 minW 310.00 miFair78°F73°F85%1015.9 hPa

Wind History from PGD (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE7E9E9E7E6E6E5NE4NE4E3E5E4E6E10SE11SE11SE11S8--W9SW10W9SW6SW5
1 day agoNE5NE6E8E9NE7NE8NE8NE9N7NE6NE5NE5NE6NE8NE8E10E9E8NE10NE10NE11NE7NE5E7
2 days agoNW5NW5E5CalmCalmCalmCalmNW3NW3N4CalmE3CalmN5545N4NW3NW6NW7NW5N5NE4

Tide / Current Tables for Pineland, Pine Island, Florida
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Pineland
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:45 AM EST     1.97 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:45 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 11:05 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 11:45 AM EST     0.01 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:39 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 06:38 PM EST     1.26 feet High Tide
Mon -- 09:57 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 10:13 PM EST     1.18 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.51.81.921.91.71.41.10.80.50.20.100.20.40.70.91.11.21.31.21.21.21.2

Tide / Current Tables for Boca Grande Pass, Charlotte Harbor, Florida Current
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Boca Grande Pass
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:39 AM EST     1.71 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 03:22 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 06:46 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:23 AM EST     -2.37 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 11:06 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 11:23 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 02:46 PM EST     1.97 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 05:39 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 09:17 PM EST     0.08 knots Min Flood
Mon -- 09:57 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.61.71.20.4-0.6-1.5-2.1-2.3-2.3-2-1.3-0.40.61.41.921.81.410.60.30.10.20.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Tampa Bay, FL (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Tampa Bay Area, FL
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.