Sunday, May20, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Moore Haven, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 6:31AMSunset 8:07PM Sunday May 20, 2018 8:56 PM EDT (00:56 UTC) Moonrise 10:44AMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 36% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ610 Lake Okeechobee- 810 Pm Edt Sun May 20 2018
Rest of tonight..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Lake waters a light chop. Scattered showers with isolated Thunderstorms.
Monday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Lake waters a light chop. A slight chance of Thunderstorms in the morning. Showers likely
a slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon
Monday night..East southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Lake waters light chop. A chance of showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms in the evening.
Tuesday..Southeast winds around 10 knots. Lake waters a light chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday night..East southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Lake waters light chop. A chance of showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms in the evening.
Wednesday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Lake waters a light chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Wednesday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Lake waters light chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Lake waters a light chop. Showers likely and a chance of Thunderstorms.
Thursday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Lake waters light chop. A chance of showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Friday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Lake waters a light chop. Showers likely and a chance of Thunderstorms.
AMZ600 Synopsis For Jupiter Inlet To Ocean Reef Fl Out To 60 Nm And For East Cape Sable To Bonita Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 810 Pm Edt Sun May 20 2018
Synopsis..Widespread showers and some Thunderstorms are expected through Monday, with locally strong winds, higher waves, and frequent lightning all possible hazards associated with any of the Thunderstorms. Moderate to fresh southeast winds will continue across the local waters, with the potential for hazardous conditions at times over the local atlantic through Tuesday.
Gulf stream hazards..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. The approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream as of may 19, 2018 at 1200 utc... 4 nautical miles east southeast of fowey rocks. 9 nautical miles east northeast of port everglades. 9 nautical miles east southeast of lake worth. 14 nautical miles east southeast of jupiter inlet. This data courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Moore Haven, FL
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location: 26.83, -81.1     debug


Area Discussion for - Miami-South Florida, FL
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Fxus62 kmfl 202322
afdmfl
area forecast discussion
national weather service miami fl
722 pm edt Sun may 20 2018

Update Once again the question of the evening is the fate of the
ongoing flood watch across broward county. Latest hi-res model runs
have initialized too far north with the ongoing convective band
across miami-dade county, but even a conservative adjustment
suggests the potential for a few moderate to heavy showers to clip
the county.

Models also continue to show some additional heavier bands affecting
the east coast after 06z in a pattern very reminiscent of this
morning. While precipitation amounts don't look as high as this
morning, due to the lack of upper level support, efficient rain
processes will mean that another 1-2 inches in a quick period won't
be out of the question for activity that does move through. And
while the main late night precip focus still leans more palm beach
county, the potential for a northward error similar to the current
initialization can't be ruled out.

With that, the flood watch will be extended again through tomorrow
morning. Will keep it just for broward county as multi-day rainfall
amounts have not been as high for miami-dade and the heaviest
amounts across palm beach county have been outside of the metro
areas.

Prev discussion issued 436 pm edt Sun may 20 2018
discussion...

this afternoon and tonight: the weak upper level low and associated
low level trough that have been driving our weather the past few
days have moved off into the northeastern gulf of mexico this
afternoon. This has shifted the deepest portion of the moisture
plume and low level convergence off to our west as well.

As a result, the significant heavy rain threat has ended for now
across much of the region this afternoon, though light to moderate
showers will continue into the evening.

Overnight, models are hinting at another pocket of higher
moisture enhanced low level winds sliding into the east coast again
late tonight early Monday morning. Current solutions are not as
bullish with amounts as this morning, likely to due to the lack of
upper level support. The fate of the ongoing flood watch in broward
county is a tough call because of this. Given this morning's
rainfall and ongoing flooding concerns, even an additional inch will
aggravate ongoing problems. Will hold the watch as is for now, and
re-evaluate as more short range guidance comes in this evening.

Monday through Wednesday: the florida peninsula will remain in
between the western atlantic ridge to our east and a broad upper
level trough to our northwest across the north gulf through most of
the upcoming week. Ongoing south-southeasterly flow in both the low
and mid levels in between these two features will continue to pump
modest tropical moisture across the region, with pwat values
expected to remain just above seasonal norms through the period.

Steering flow will favor a pattern of overnight morning coverage
along the east coast and atlantic with afternoon showers and storms
mainly across the interior and gulf coast. While rain chances remain
above normal, we should see a shift to more of a diurnal maximum in
coverage by Tuesday. Threat for locally heavy rainfall will linger
into Monday, with just enough drier air edging in on Tuesday that it
will likely be the "driest" day of the week with coverage
remaining more scattered.

Mid and upper level clouds will continue to limit sunshine, which in
turn will keep overall instability and storm coverage down as well
as daytime temperatures. High temperatures will struggle to get into
the 80s on Monday. Less rainfall will allow highs in the mid 80s
Tuesday and Wednesday.

Thursday into next weekend: the forecast as we end the week and head
into next weekend remains very uncertain as global models continue
to diverge in solutions. Both agree on the basic synoptic evolution,
with the atlantic ridge breaking down as the persistent upper level
trough across the gulf of mexico digs further south, allowing some
type of tropical disturbance to lift north out of the central
american gyre.

As always, the crux of the forecast is in the details. Where the
ecmwf keeps a stronger longer lasting subtropical ridge influence,
leading to drier conditions, with rain chances increasing Friday
night into the weekend as the forecasted tropical disturbance moves
toward the central gulf. The GFS however, keeps the ridge relatively
weaker, which allows for a faster moving disturbance in a more
northeasterly direction, though strength-wise it appears to be
suffering from some convective feedback.

For now, not too many changes with the ongoing forecast with rain
chances increasing once again late week. The potential for a return
to heavy rainfall will have to be watched.

Marine... Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots will continue into Monday,
with winds approaching at steady 20 knots at times over the atlantic
waters. For now, will keep cautionary statement in place as any
advisory level conditions do not look to be widespread long lived.

Seas 3-5ft in the atlantic and 2-4ft in the offshore gulf. Winds and
seas are expected to ease late Tuesday, with southeast winds 10-
15kts into the middle of the week.

Widespread showers with some thunderstorms will persist through
Monday, with the focus gradually shifting from the atlantic into the
gulf (and continuing for lake okeechobee). The heavier activity
could produce hazardous winds, locally higher waves, and dangerous
lightning. Coverage is expected to be a little more scattered
midweek.

Beach forecast... Southeast winds of 15 to 20 mph have lead to
numerous rip currents being reported at east coast beaches this
afternoon. A high risk of rip currents is now in effect for all
atlantic beaches through Monday. The enhanced risk may linger into
Tuesday before winds and seas subside.

Hydrology... Morning rainfall brought a wide swath of 3 to 7 inch
rainfall totals across all of metro broward and the western side of
the palm beach metro this morning, as well as far north miami-dade
county. Several locations across broward topped out above 8 inches,
and wouldn't be surprised if a few spots reached 9-10 inches. This
all fell in about 6 hours, which in addition to the past few days
of heavy rainfall, lead to widespread significant street flooding
across these areas.

The heavy rainfall threat has diminished for the east coast and
interior for the moment, but some locally heavy rainfall will remain
possible along the gulf coast through this evening. There is some
concern for additional east coast rainfall overnight, though current
trends suggest amounts will not be as high as this morning.

However, any additional rainfall would aggravate ongoing flooding.

Additional heavy rain, averaging 1 to 2 inches, with locally higher
amounts, are possible Monday, before a relative lull is expected
into the middle of the week. Thereafter, will have to monitor for
additional heavy rain flood potential as deep tropical moisture is
poised to return.

Preliminary point temps pops
West palm beach 72 79 72 82 60 60 30 40
fort lauderdale 73 81 72 83 60 60 30 30
miami 72 81 72 83 50 60 30 30
naples 71 82 71 86 30 70 40 50

Mfl watches warnings advisories
Fl... High rip current risk through Monday evening for flz168-172-173.

Flood watch until 8 pm edt this evening for flz071-072-172.

Am... None.

Gm... None.

Update... 88 alm


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FMRF1 - 8725520 - Fort Myers, FL 43 mi39 min ESE 5.1 G 7 73°F 84°F1016.9 hPa
LKWF1 - 8722670 - Lake Worth, FL 58 mi39 min SE 17 G 20 79°F 78°F1018.7 hPa77°F
NPSF1 - 8725110 - Naples, FL 61 mi39 min 73°F 80°F1016.8 hPa

Wind History for Lake Worth Pier, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Okeechobee County Airport, FL33 mi62 minESE 57.00 miFair77°F71°F83%1017.9 hPa

Wind History from OBE (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmSE4CalmCalmE4E3E4CalmE4E4E3E5SE7SE11SE7S7SE6SE7CalmS4SE4SE5E5E3
1 day agoSE4NE3CalmCalmCalmCalmSE3E3CalmCalmCalmCalmSE4SE6SE8E6SE8SE7
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Tide / Current Tables for Fort Myers, Florida
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Fort Myers
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Sun -- 12:37 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 04:03 AM EDT     -0.19 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:37 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:38 AM EDT     0.61 feet High Tide
Sun -- 11:47 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 01:55 PM EDT     0.48 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:57 PM EDT     1.41 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:10 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.50.20-0.1-0.2-0.100.20.40.50.60.60.60.50.50.50.70.91.21.41.41.31.21

Tide / Current Tables for Cape Coral Bridge, Caloosahatchee River, Florida
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Cape Coral Bridge
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:37 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 03:15 AM EDT     -0.15 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:38 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 11:47 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:57 PM EDT     1.04 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:10 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.20-0.1-0.2-0.1-00.10.30.40.50.60.60.60.60.70.70.80.91110.90.80.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Miami-South Florida, FL (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Miami, FL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.